ALLT — Long: Two independent systems aligned, 2.4:1 R/RSetup
I run two backtested systems on my names: a multi-timeframe EMA trend system (PF 1.87 on ALLT, 2016–2026) and a classic Ichimoku san-yaku system — TK cross + price above cloud + chikou clear (PF 2.44, same window). Both fired long on ALLT within days of each other (6/30 and 7/7), and both are still long. That cross-validation is the reason for this post.
Ichimoku picture (daily)
Tenkan over kijun, price above the cloud, chikou clear. Full three-role alignment
Price broke out of the June cloud tangle on volume and is holding above the kumo
Forward cloud is bullish and rising into August. Trend support building underneath (~7.60–8.00)
The trade
Entry zone: ~8.48
Stop: 7.96 (under the kijun and the July pivot — if we're back below there, the setup failed)
Target: 9.70 (prior resistance / R1)
R/R: ~2.4:1
Fundamental kicker
Turnaround in progress: three straight quarters of double-digit revenue growth, GAAP profitable again, 71% gross margins, SECaaS ARR +59% YoY, ~$98M cash against a ~$385M cap. FY guidance reaffirmed.
Risks
Micro-cap, thin liquidity, gaps hard through stops. Size accordingly. This is my plan, not advice. 
Long
DG - Buying the Cloud Retest After the Base ReclaimDollar General bottomed at S1 (100.59) in May and has climbed all the way back through the Ichimoku cloud, tagging R1 at 119.60. Today's 2 percent pullback is dropping price right onto the top of the cloud near 112 to 114, which is exactly where I want to buy the dip in an uptrend.
The setup:
Price is above the cloud, conversion is above base, and the future cloud is green. Bullish alignment. This dip is a retest of broken resistance as support, not a trend break, as long as the cloud edge holds.
Entry: 115.78 on the pullback.
Stop: 109.01, below the cloud and the pivot at 109.59. That is 5.8 percent risk. Lose the cloud and the long is dead.
Target: 131.49 into R2, giving a 2.32 risk-reward.
Bias: long the cloud retest, stop under 109, target the R2 zone. Clean 2.3 to 1.
Not financial advice. Manage your risk. 
Long
Sandisk (SNDK) LONG — 1D ALMA Setup (WR 90%)█ SETUP
NASDAQ:SNDK · 1D · long only.
(Context: Sandisk — NAND flash / enterprise SSD · WDC spin-off — AI data-center storage beta, not GPU silicon.)
ALMA Averaging Strategy: ALMA 3 / σ2, SD band 2, min diff 1 bar to add / 1 bar to exit, 25% per bar, up to 4 adds, hard stop −10% from average entry.
Strategy Tester (SNDK 1D):
Win rate 90% · profit factor 6.5 · max drawdown 16%
Avg winning trade +27.0% · avg losing trade −21.5%
Typical hold ~16×1D bars on winners — NAND mean-reversion grid · 41-trade sample
═
█ WHY NOW
Friday US cash open — fresh 1D ALMA long on 17 Jul 13:30 UTC ~ $1,411 .
Re-arm on the same daily Averaging template after the prior ladder stopped on the 16 Jul open (~$1,615). First lot of a new pyramid (1 of 4) into the NAND wash — bar-close signal, not a discretionary “buy the memory dip” call.
Hard stop zone −10% from fill ~ $1,270 . Exits follow Pine ALMA flip + min diff or the hard stop.
═
█ MACRO
Sector: SNDK = SanDisk · NAND flash / enterprise SSD · WDC spin-off — AI data-center storage beta via NBM / LTA ASP rails; peers NASDAQ:MU , Samsung, SK Hynix, NASDAQ:WDC , $STX.
Fundamental (30d → 18 Jul): Street still strongly Bid after a PT cascade — Citi ~$2,500 · Bernstein ~$3,000 · BofA ~$2,500 · Goldman ~$2,200 · Wedbush ~$2,000 · Evercore ~$3,100 (13 Jul) on ~$62B minimum committed NBM revenue; ~18/22 Buy · consensus PT ~$2,100+. Company FQ4 guide ~$7.75–8.25B rev / EPS ~$30–33. Tape ignored the upgrades: Meta Compute scare early Jul · Samsung sell-the-news · “memory glut” narrative → −30%+ from ATH · ~$1,425 into 17 Jul. Next calendar: FQ4 ~05 Aug · Investor Day ~13 Aug.
Tape (17 Jul): Re-entry into post-flush mean-reversion after the July memory wash — no fresh company IR print on the fill bar.
Window read: mixed — earnings power / Street PT stack +, multiple compression and late-window tape −.
Execution is 1D ALMA at ~$1,411 — not an earnings preview or PT-chase trade.
═
█ OUTLOOK
Positive factors
- 90% WR · PF 6.5 · avg win +27.0% vs avg loss −21.5% · ~16×1D bars — high hit-rate daily template (41-trade sample)
- Fresh re-entry inside the 24h window after a clean template stop — same rules that exited, same rules that re-armed
- Fundamental — Street / NBM stack: record PT wave into mid-Jul · Evercore ~$3,100 on ~$62B committed NBM revenue · Micron “NAND very tight” backdrop still frames the cycle — Street earnings-power thesis intact under the wash
- ALMA — execution + HTF stretch below: 1D Signal SHORT · S:5 vs SAvg:2.5 · OVERHEAT-S · 4H Signal SHORT · S:5 vs SAvg:3.0 · OVERHEAT-S · 3D / 1W also OVERHEAT-S — time stretched below the band into the fill (mean-reversion fuel)
- EMA — 4H below-session stretch: 4H Below · 4H Cur S:9 vs Avg S:7.0 · +23.4% dev — sell-time overheated on the 4H clock into the daily add
- SMC — demand at fill: 4H / 1D FVG Enter Bull ~ $1,411 (16 Jul) — bid-side inefficiency tags the re-entry print (4H B69% · 1D B76%)
- VWAP — support reaction: chart touch Support ~ $1,384 (from 30 Mar) with spot above — discount reaction zone under the fill
- Weekly EMA still Above with large −Dev — slower uptrend context intact while daily mean-reverts the wash
Negative factors
- Fundamental — tape vs Street divergence: Meta Compute / glut fears · Samsung contagion · −30%+ from ATH · PT hikes ignored into ~$1,425 — multiple compression (P/E ~60x+) dominates near-term risk/reward
- Event path: FQ4 ~05 Aug + Investor Day ~13 Aug can reprice ASP / NBM guidance either way before a typical ~16-bar hold completes
- EMA — daily / 3D below still young vs average: 1D Below · 1D Cur S:5 vs Avg S:7.4 · +21.8% · 3D Below · 3D Cur S:1 vs Avg S:8.2 — sell-time not mature on 1D/3D; downside can extend before the bounce completes
- SMC — bear OB on the daily fill bar: 1D OB New Bear ~ $1,411 alongside bull FVG — two-way housekeeping at the add, not a clean one-way reclaim
- VWAP — overhead active levels: Active Support ~ $1,651 sits above spot (reclaim needed) · Active Resistance ~ $1,855 — ceilings for any bounce
- PA: Bearish FVG formed — supply inefficiency still in the recent tape
- TL AI: Support Break (2 bars) · B79% / Br21% (14 Jul) — breakdown context still on the board
- Memory-complex headline risk (AI hardware wash / peer MU beta) can gap the daily bar
- Past backtest ≠ live fills; avg loss −21.5% is wide — size stays boring
Takeaway: the 1D ALMA strategy and 90% WR support the re-arm into a multi-TF OVERHEAT-S band with bull FVG at ~$1,411, and Street NBM/PT stack still frames the long-cycle thesis — but glut-scare tape, young 1D/3D below-sessions, VWAP reclaim overhead, and Aug FQ4 event risk cap upside — net read is a strategy-backed NAND wash mean-reversion into a mixed fund window, not a clean Street-PT reclaim; nominal risk stays on the −10% hard stop / Pine exit path.
Base case: 1D ALMA holds · OVERHEAT-S mean-reverts · drift toward the ~$1,651 VWAP shelf if memory beta stabilises ahead of FQ4.
Bear case: fail 1D ALMA · glut / peer memory flush reasserts · −10% from ~$1,411 toward ~$1,270 · Aug guide miss gaps the open.
Chart: NASDAQ:SNDK 1D — ALMA Averaging Strategy.
Educational idea. Live position — past backtest ≠ future results. NFA. 
Long
Long
Long
Long
Short
ORCL: Trendline Broken, Swing Low Lost—Larger Correction Ahead?For months, ORCL respected a strong rising trendline, with every pullback finding buyers before continuing higher.
That bullish structure has now changed.
Price has broken below the long-term trendline and, more importantly, has also closed below the recent swing low near 134, confirming a break in market structure.
To make matters worse, the overall price action appears to be forming a Head & Shoulders pattern, suggesting the recent weakness may be more than just a normal pullback.
🐻 Bearish Factors
📉 Trendline Breakdown
⚠️ Market Structure Shift
🎯 Head & Shoulders Pattern
The current structure resembles a classical Head & Shoulders reversal, with a measured downside target in the low 50s (if fully completed.)
🔄 Support Turned Resistance
Unless buyers quickly reclaim the breakdown levels, rallies are likely to face selling pressure.
🎯 Bearish Scenario
➡️ As long as ORCL remains below the broken trendline and recent swing low, I expect the correction to continue.
🎯 Target 1: 116 (Strong Intermediate Support)
🎯 Target 2: 95 (Major Support Zone)
📉 Extended Target: Low 50s (Head & Shoulders Measured Move)
⚠️ What I'm Watching
👀 Before turning more aggressive on the bearish side, I'll be watching for:
✅ Failure to reclaim 134
✅ Rejection from the broken trendline
✅ Increasing selling volume
✅ Continued weakness below key moving averages
Those would strengthen the probability of a larger decline.
❌ Bearish Invalidation
🟢 A strong daily close above 150 would invalidate this bearish thesis, suggesting the breakdown was a false move and buyers have regained control.
💡 For now, the technical picture has shifted strongly in favor of the bears. Unless ORCL quickly reclaims its lost support levels, the path of least resistance appears lower, with 116 and 95 as the first key downside objectives before the larger Head & Shoulders target comes into focus. 
Short
SNDK:From "Buy the Dip?" to Confirmed Head & Shoulders Reversal?In my previous analysis, I pointed out that SNDK was beginning to lose its bullish structure, with the rising trendline breaking down, the Daily EMA20 turning into resistance, and bearish divergence warning that momentum was fading.
Since then, the bearish story has become much clearer. SNDK has lost over 30% since then.
What initially looked like a simple trendline breakdown has now developed into a textbook Head & Shoulders reversal, complete with a neckline breakdown and retest.
The bulls have clearly lost control for now.
🐻 Bearish Factors:
📐 Trendline Breakdown and Reteset
📉 Head & Shoulders Breakdown Confirmed
🔄 Neckline Retest
Price Closed below daily EMA89
📊 Market Structure Shift
The sequence of Higher Highs and Higher Lows has been interrupted, increasing the probability of a larger corrective phase.
⚠️ Bearish Momentum
The earlier bearish divergence has now started playing out as momentum continues to weaken.
🎯 Bearish Scenario
➡️ As long as SNDK remains below the broken neckline, I continue to favor the bearish case.
🎯 Target 1: 1250(0.618 Fibonacci Golden Pocket)
🎯 Target 2: 950(0.786 Fibonacci Retracement / Major Support)
📉 Extended Target: If selling pressure accelerates, the full Head & Shoulders measured move remains in play with a target near 620
🟢 Where Bulls May Fight Back
There are still important demand zones below current price.
🛡️ 1250 aligns with the Golden Pocket (61.8% retracement) and a previous support zone, making it the first area where buyers could attempt a meaningful rebound.
🛡️ Below that, the Daily EMA200 near 900–950 provides another major dynamic support coinciding with Fib 78% that shouldn't be ignored.
❌ Bearish Invalidation
🟢 A decisive daily close back above the Head & Shoulders neckline, followed by a successful retest as support, would invalidate this bearish thesis and suggest the breakdown was a false move.
💡 One technical signal can fail. Two deserve attention. But when a trendline breakdown, EMA20 loss, Head & Shoulders breakdown, neckline retest rejection, and weakening momentum all align, the probability shifts decisively in favor of the bears.
Now the question is no longer whether the trend has changed... but how deep this correction can go. Short 
Long
Long
LONG STLD - Bounce at Weekly Fib 0.618 + RSI(2) Reversal 📍 ENTRY: $235.34
🛑 **STOP LOSS:** $210.00 (Risk: $25.34)
🎯 **TAKE PROFIT:** $286.00 (Reward: $50.66)
📊 R:R RATIO: ~1:2.0
🔍 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (The Signal):
Triple Confluence Zone: STLD is currently bouncing from a critical support area. The price has retraced to the weekly Fibonacci 0.618 level, which coincides with a structural weekly support zone. This is further confirmed by a bullish RSI(2) reversal signal on the daily chart — the same setup that has worked consistently in previous trades.
Technical Boundaries: The stock has established a clear support floor at $217.98** and resistance at **$240.92, with recent price action showing a series of higher lows over the past few weeks, indicating a gradual uptrend.
52-Week Range: The stock sits at **$235.34**, well within its **$119.89 – $288.74** yearly range. The pullback from the $288.74 high has erased a notable portion of recent gains and put near-term technical support to the test.
Moving Averages: The 50-day MA sits at ~$245.37** and the **200-day MA at ~$188.78. My stop loss at $210.00 is placed safely below the 50-day MA and above the 200-day MA, giving the trade room to breathe while protecting against a breakdown.
Key Resistance: The $288.74 52-week high is the primary hurdle. A breakout above this level would open the door to new all-time highs.
**Target at $286.00**: Positioned just below the 52-week high ($288.74) and approaching the highest analyst target of $310, capturing the full upside of the technical and fundamental setup.
📊 FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS (The Catalyst):
STLD reports Q2 2026 earnings BEFORE THE MARKET OPEN ON MONDAY, July 20, 2026 — this is the primary catalyst.
The company provided guidance on June 17, 2026:
✅ EPS Guidance: $3.51 – $3.55 per diluted share
✅ This represents a +26% sequential increase from Q1 2026 EPS of $2.78
✅ And a **+77% YoY increase** from Q2 2025 EPS of $2.01
What Wall Street expects:
Firm EPS Estimate
Consensus $3.62 – $3.66
Revenue Estimate ~$5.57B (+~22% YoY)
The Growth Story:
✅ Robust steel demand and expanding metal margins are driving significantly stronger anticipated profitability in steel operations
✅ Record Q1 2026: Strong financial results with record steel shipments
✅ Rapid progress in aluminum operations: Two of three aluminum lines are already operational, with the third expected in July
✅ Strong order backlog: Steel fabrication order backlog is ~40% higher than the prior year, providing visibility into late 2026 and 2027
Analyst Sentiment (Bullish):
Firm Rating Price Target
Consensus (12 analysts) Buy $271.33
Highest Target — $310
Lowest Target — $221
FactSet (12 analysts) — $270.00
The average price target of ~$271 implies an ~15% upside from current levels.
Key Dates:
Earnings Release: Monday, July 20, 2026 (before market open)
Conference Call: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET
🎯 TRADE STRATEGY:
Entry at $235.34: Entering at the bounce off the weekly Fibonacci 0.618 level, confirmed by the RSI(2) reversal signal.
SL at $210.00:** Placed safely **below the 50-day MA (~$245) and above the 200-day MA (~$188), protecting against a breakdown while allowing for normal pullback volatility.
**TP at $286.00:** Positioned just below the 52-week high ($288.74) and approaching the highest analyst targets ($310), capturing the full upside of the fundamental setup.
⚠️ RISK MANAGEMENT:
Earnings risk: This is a binary event. The company already provided guidance ($3.51–$3.55) which is slightly below the current consensus ($3.62–$3.66). While the guidance has been known since June 17, the market may still react if results fall short of expectations.
JPMorgan cut its price target to $256 from $262 on July 15, adjusting targets in the steel group as part of a Q2 earnings preview.
Technical caution: The stock has shown significant volatility, with a pullback from $288.74 highs.
Valuation: The stock trades at a forward P/E of ~12.7x, which is reasonable but not cheap.
💬 What are your thoughts? Is anyone else watching this Fib 0.618/RSI(2) bounce for the earnings run?
⚠️ DISCLAIMER:
This is NOT financial or investment advice. This post reflects my personal opinion and analysis based on publicly available information. Trading and investing involve substantial risk, including the potential loss of your entire capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research (DYOR) and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any trading decisions. I am not responsible for any losses incurred. 
Long
Short 
Long
Long
Long
