$SPCX - joining the PORTFOLIO at the IPO price of $135Position #10: NASDAQ:SPCX (SpaceX)
Joining the portfolio at the IPO price. All it took was five weeks of patience, no need to stress, the price went to the moon for a while and now it's back on Earth.
Very negative sentiment, articles, opinions - no surprise, everyone who bought after the IPO is under water. I won't write too much about the company itself, everyone probably already knows everything, no point repeating it. One of the more interesting things: the first earnings are approaching, along with the first share unlocks. The price is well below $175, so fewer shares will actually be unlocked. Supply shouldn't increase significantly, not at these prices, in my opinion.
Anyway, I bought the first tranche for the portfolio, I've said many times that I consider the IPO price to be very strong support (the price briefly dropped to $132, but quickly bounced), and now there are several additional technical factors.
Bullish RSI divergence (currently back above 40) on the lower hourly timeframe and the Descending Channel marked in red, I like that combination, and on top of that I believe the price is probably in the fifth and final Elliott Wave, both on the higher and lower degree. So simply put, this move lower has probably either already ended, or it's coming to an end.
Volumes are very low, which is obviously bullish during a downtrend. One caveat though, the trend is still bearish, so theoretically it could go lower. Despite that, I think this is a good opportunity, the IPO price plus several signs suggesting trend exhaustion. This isn't leverage, precision doesn't have to be perfect.
Speaking of leverage, my fourth or fifth long is getting hammered finally, I've averaged my entry down to $147, so it's bleeding, but I'm sticking to exactly the same strategy when it comes to the stop loss, I'll close it in three stages, after each candle closes below the IPO price. Wicks don't interest me, only closes, so the long is still alive and I even added more at $135.
I think there's a good chance that was the bottom, either a local one or something more than just local. We'll see, if the price keeps falling there will be more tranches, but hopefully at least a local bottom has been established and the long position survives.
👽💙 
Long
Long
Long
Long
Long
Long
Long
Long
Long
$CRGYCompleted a H&S drop. hard bounce off previous support.. windfall oil/gas war profits are the lever (delever(age)) that gets this elevated. KKR supplies strong capital markets knowledge/support, long term value accretion,
Scenario framework
Prob-weighted FV $15.15 vs spot $9.52 → P/FV 0.63×, expected return +59%. Bear −58%.
ScenarioProbFV/shvs SpotKey assumptionBear33%$4.00−58%Sustained sub-$58 WTI; EBITDAX to $2.0B at a held 3.25×Base42%$16.50+73%Mid-cycle $68 WTI; $2.6B normalized EBITDAX at 4.0×Bull20%$25.00+163%$78 WTI; $3.1B EBITDAX, 4.25×, convert if-convertedBlue-sky5%$38.00+299%Structural supply shock, $95+ sustained; full peer re-rateProb-weighted100%$15.15+59%
Bear (33%) — all three:
WTI averages < $58/bbl across 2027 (anchored: EIA STEO Jul 7 sees Brent averaging $65 in 2027 → WTI ~$61; bear is a further ~5% undershoot)
FY27 Adj. EBITDAX < $2.2B (vs. FY26E ~$2.85B)
Fixed dividend cut or suspended by Q4 2027
Base (42%) — both:
WTI averages $65–72/bbl through 2028 (anchored: forward curve, WTI $71.41 Jul 10)
Net leverage ≤ 1.5× by Q4 2027 print AND oil volumes held flat (±3%) vs. FY26 at capex ≤ $1.5B
Bull (20%) — both:
WTI averages > $76/bbl through 2028
Realized synergies > $150M run-rate by Q4 2026 (anchored: $120M captured at Q1, = 120% of original target) AND EV/EBITDAX re-rates to ≥ 4.25× (peer average 3.8–4.5×)
CRGY — Condensed FV path (prose)
Spot $9.52.
Today. Bear $4.00 (−58%), base $16.50 (+73%), bull $25.00 (+163%), prob-weighted $15.15 (+59%). Live catalyst ±8% · Aug 2026. Base-case dividend yield on cost 5.0%.
Year-end 2026. Bear $4.13 (−57%), base $17.33 (+82%), bull $26.37 (+177%), prob-weighted $15.92 (+67%). Live catalyst ±15% · Feb 2027. Div YoC 5.0%.
Year-end 2027. Bear $4.42 (−54%), base $19.24 (+102%), bull $29.53 (+210%), prob-weighted $17.69 (+86%). No dated live catalyst — inventory empty from here. Div YoC 5.0%.
Year-end 2028. Bear $4.73 (−50%), base $21.35 (+124%), bull $33.08 (+247%), prob-weighted $19.66 (+106%). Div YoC 5.7%.
Year-end 2029. Bear $5.06 (−47%), base $23.70 (+149%), bull $37.04 (+289%), prob-weighted $21.85 (+129%). Div YoC 6.3%.
Year-end 2030. Bear $5.41 (−43%), base $26.31 (+176%), bull $41.49 (+336%), prob-weighted $24.29 (+155%). Div YoC 6.9%.
Year-end 2031. Bear $5.79 (−39%), base $29.20 (+207%), bull $46.47 (+388%), prob-weighted $27.00 (+184%). Div YoC 7.6%.
Year-end 2032. Bear $6.20 (−35%), base $32.41 (+240%), bull $52.05 (+447%), prob-weighted $30.02 (+215%). Div YoC 8.2%.
Year-end 2033. Bear $6.63 (−30%), base $35.98 (+278%), bull $58.29 (+512%), prob-weighted $33.39 (+251%). Div YoC 8.8%.
Year-end 2034. Bear $7.09 (−25%), base $39.94 (+320%), bull $65.29 (+586%), prob-weighted $37.13 (+290%). Div YoC 9.5%.
Year-end 2035. Bear $7.59 (−20%), base $44.33 (+366%), bull $73.12 (+668%), prob-weighted $41.30 (+334%). Div YoC 10.1%. 
Long
Sandisk Corporation. (SNDK): Trendline Breakout, Short Term SellSandisk Corporation (NASDAQ SNDK) is trading around the $1,915 mark, driven by massive AI-driven demand and recent multi year flash storage deal with Meta. Wedbush recently raised their price target for SNDK to $2,000, citing strong NAND pricing, while B of A securities maintains a buy rating with a target of $2,500.
Technical Outlook:
Stock recently broke below the trend support line, after a couple months of bullish surge. Price just made a retest of breakout, in respect of the structure, as we anticipate a bearish retracement within $1,955-$2,052.
Key Points:
A clear reverse at this point, activates a sell position down to $1,551, as next potential bearish.
Thanks for reading.
Short
TSLA | Trend Flipped — Buy The Dip Before The Run!TSLA | Trend Flipped Bullish — Buy The Dip Before The Liquidity Run!
By analyzing the #TSLA (Tesla) chart on the 4H timeframe, we can see that the trend has decisively shifted from bearish to bullish. After an extended downtrend, buyers have wrestled back control — and the current pullback looks like a healthy correction offering the next opportunity before the push toward the liquidity above.
📊 4H Timeframe
On the 4H, price had been locked in a clear downtrend, printing bearish BOS after bearish BOS while resting liquidity built up above.
That character has now changed: price printed a bullish CHoCH, followed by a bullish BOS that swept a large portion of the liquidity sitting against the old downtrend.
After that BOS, price dipped back into the Demand Zone ( $368.51 – $376.22 ) and launched higher from it with strength — exactly the reaction we want to confirm the shift.
Price is currently trading around $397.55 , and in my view it's now working through a three-wave (ABC) corrective pullback in Elliott terms.
My expectation is a dip back into the Order Block ( $380 – $388 region, above the Demand Zone) to rebalance, followed by a continuation higher to hunt the stacked buy-side liquidity (BSL) resting overhead at $432.85 , $445.18 , $453.15 , and ultimately $498.38 .
The entire bullish thesis stays valid as long as price holds above the Protected Low at $363.98 .
🎯 The Bias
My base case is bullish. The trend flipped with a CHoCH and confirmed with a BOS, price already reacted cleanly from the Demand Zone, and the structure now favours buying the corrective dip rather than chasing.
The plan: a pullback into the Order Block to complete the ABC correction, then a push toward the BSL pools above. In my view, as long as TSLA holds above the Protected Low ($363.98), every dip into demand remains a buying opportunity rather than a reversal — the liquidity draw is clearly to the upside.
📰 Fundamental Backdrop
The bullish structure lines up with a genuinely improving fundamental picture. Tesla just posted its best quarter in two years, delivering 480,126 vehicles in Q2 — a strong rebound that has re-energized the bull case ahead of the Q2 earnings report on July 22, the next major catalyst. Analyst sentiment is warming: UBS raised its target to $442 (from $364) expecting a strong Q2 beat, Jefferies laid out a bull case for a return above $400, and JPMorgan called a potential SpaceX–Tesla merger "strategically coherent" — a tie-up that could hand shareholders a premium. Momentum is also building around Tesla's transition into an AI and robotics business, with the robotaxi rollout expanding to new markets and progress on FSD/Grok integration. That said, risks remain: the stock still trades at a rich valuation (P/E north of 300), the robotaxi expansion faces regulatory hurdles (a proposed New Jersey ban), and Chinese rivals like XPeng are intensifying competition. But with deliveries rebounding and earnings imminent, the fundamental momentum aligns with the bullish technical shift.
This analysis will be updated as the market evolves. If this breakdown added value, drop a like 👍 and a comment 💬 to support the work — and share where you see Tesla heading next! Best Regards, BigBeluga 🐳 
Short
Long
Long
Short
Long
It's a time for ASPN.US - 115% potential profit! - 7 USDThe chart of Aspen Aerogels, Inc. shows a prolonged downtrend that has recently begun to lose momentum. After a sharp sell-off, price stabilized in the 3.20–3.40 USD range, forming a clear demand zone that has been defended multiple times. This behavior suggests selling pressure exhaustion and the potential beginning of an accumulation phase.
Price is currently moving within a tight consolidation near local lows, a pattern that often precedes a stronger directional move. Short-term moving averages are flattening, and early signs of a potential upward turn indicate improving momentum. The absence of new lows, combined with steady trading activity, points to increasing buyer interest.
From a technical perspective, the next key upside target is the 7 USD area, which aligns with previous swing highs and a significant historical reaction zone. A breakout from the current base and sustained price action above the 4 USD level could trigger a stronger bullish move toward this target.
In summary, the chart suggests that Aspen Aerogels may be entering an early trend reversal phase. If support continues to hold and market sentiment improves, a near-term move toward the 7 USD level appears technically achievable.
Potential TP: 7 USD
This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Investing in financial markets involves significant risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
If you have a question, contact with me. 
Long
Long 
TLRY | Why Tilray is Coiled for a 400% Explosion | LONG Forget the daily retail noise. If you want to understand the massive move currently coiling up for Tilray (TLRY), you only need to look at three interlocking factors: the fundamental catalyst, the structural pattern, and the institutional footprint.
The Catalyst: DEA Rescheduling
The looming U.S. federal order to reclassify medical marijuana to Schedule III is the fundamental match to this powder keg. This isn't just a regulatory headline; it is the exact systemic shift required to unlock massive institutional capital flows that have been forced to sit on the sidelines for years. It fundamentally changes the viability of the entire sector.
The Structure: The Bullish Wedge
While the broader market waits for the final official ruling, TLRY's price action has compressed into a massive, textbook bullish wedge on the macro chart. We are seeing a series of lower highs grinding down into a firm structural floor, tightening the trading range week after week. The asset is coiling tightly at the absolute apex of this wedge, structurally signaling that a violent, directional breakout is imminent.
The Footprint: Heavy Volume Accumulation
Here is where the math becomes undeniable. If you look under the hood of this tightening bullish wedge, we aren't seeing distribution or weak-handed selling, we are seeing heavy, sustained volume accumulation.
Smart money is quietly and aggressively absorbing the remaining float at these suppressed base levels. When you pair a tightening wedge with heavy accumulation volume, it tells you one thing: institutional buyers are building their core positions right before the rescheduling catalyst fully prices in.
The compression at the apex is almost over. Watch for the high-volume expansion breaking through the top resistance of the wedge.
Stay sharp and follow the volume.
— The Divergence Seeker 
Long
