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NVDA Reclaimed 204.82 - The Shakeout Confirmed.NVDA Reclaimed 204.82 - The Shakeout Confirmed.
Friday the base at 202.20 held on a close, and the open question was whether NVDA could reclaim 204.82 to confirm the shakeout. It did. Nvidia bounced from the 197.97 low back to 205.83, taking the level back and turning the base test into a defended low. The next test is 207.59, the breakout level lost last week - reclaim that and the whole drop reads as a shakeout inside the trend. Conviction is still only mid-range on the hour, so this is a recovery that has proved one level, not the whole structure. Neutral.
Resistance: 207.59 - the lost breakout level, the next test
Key resistance: 213.43-213.81 - the prior high
Current price: 205.83
Support: 204.82 - just reclaimed, first line to hold
Key support: 202.20 - the base
Structural floor: 197.97 - the swept low
Two paths from here:
The reclaim extends through 207.59. If NVDA holds 204.82 and takes 207.59, the base test is fully resolved and the trend re-engages toward 213. The low is defended and the first level is already back.
The bounce stalls under 207.59. Mid-range conviction running into a level it just lost is where recoveries fail. A rejection at 207.59 and a loss of 204.82 puts 202.20 back on the table for a second test, and second tests are weaker than first ones.
The base held and the reclaim came, which is what confirmation looks like. 207.59 is the level that decides whether this is a full recovery or a bounce inside a broken structure.
Built with SYNTHESIS v3.3 | SOM / ACE / IMP / SYNTHESIS
Study, not financial advice. 
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Astera Labs | Pullback Within a Bullish Trend?After a powerful rally, Astera Labs has entered a healthy correction and is now testing the key 300-305 support area, where the Fibonacci level and the EMA 100 are located. Despite recent profit taking, price remains well above the EMA 200, keeping the long-term bullish structure intact. CCI has reached oversold territory and is beginning to recover, which may become an early signal that selling pressure is fading. As long as price holds above 300, the primary scenario remains a recovery toward 406, followed by 469 and potentially 565. A break below 300 would increase the probability of a decline toward the next major demand zone near 255. Astera Labs remains one of the fastest-growing AI infrastructure companies, providing high-speed connectivity solutions for GPUs, processors and modern data centers. The company continues to benefit from massive investment in artificial intelligence and cloud infrastructure by the world's largest technology companies. Continued revenue growth, expanding partnerships with leading server manufacturers and rising AI infrastructure spending could support the stock's long-term bullish outlook. 
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$ABT When the Reason for the Markdown ReversesWhat I'm seeing
ABT peaked ~$137 in mid-2025 and bled 40% to $81.97 a textbook Weinstein Stage 4 markdown while the broader market ran. The week of July 13 changed the tape: a massive bullish engulfing candle on the highest weekly volume in months, reclaiming $100 off the Fib 0% floor.
- Fib 0% ($81.97) tested and rejected hard
- Weekly close $100.68, back above the 200-week EMA zone
- 4H structure flipped: price above Value Area High ($100.67), above anchored VWAP/PoC at $95.10 — recent buyers are in profit, and the high-volume node at $95 is now the floor, not the ceiling
- Weekly RSI recovering from deep oversold
- Insider buying into the lows, zero selling
Why it matters
The markdown was never an earnings problem. Revenue grew every quarter through the decline. The stock was repriced on one thing: the April guidance cut from Exact Sciences dilution, plus litigation and competition fears stacked on top.
On July 16, that exact driver reversed. Q2 beat. Full-year guidance *raised* back to $5.45–$5.60. The market marked the stock down on lowered guidance and just got handed raised guidance at a 23-handle lower price.
When the cause of a Stage 4 gets invalidated, the markdown loses its fuel. That's the setup. Not the confirmation the setup.
The levels
- $94–95 — line in the sand. VWAP + PoC + volume shelf. Bulls must defend this or the reversal thesis dies.
- $103.18 — first real test (Fib 0.382). Acceptance above opens the next leg.
- $112–116 — the decision zone (Fib 0.618 + prior structure). This is where a bounce becomes a trend change or gets sold.
- $137.49 — prior high. Not a target yet. A destination only if the base builds.
What I expect
Default assumption after 40% of markdown: overhead supply exists at every level above. One candle even a monster proves a floor, not a trend.
Two conditions, no predictions:
Weekly acceptance above $103 = first evidence the repricing is done and Stage 1 accumulation is underway. Until then, this is a violent bounce with a good story.
Loss of $94 on a weekly close = the engulfing candle was distribution's gift, not accumulation's start. Back to watchlist.
Strong business + reversed catalyst + reclaimed structure earns real attention. It does not earn full size.
Patience is a position. Not financial advice educational breakdown of my process. 
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TSLA Earning Week Option Trades TSLA has been grinding inside a broad consolidation after failing to sustain the early-July push, with price repeatedly reacting around the 391.00 and 381.00 zones. The chart is also respecting a descending trendline from the early-month highs, while 406.00 and 412.00 remain the first major upside hurdles if buyers can regain momentum.
Earnings next week are the main catalyst, and the implied move shown on the chart should be treated as fluid until closer to the report. I’m using two main earnings paths here: a continuation move in green and an overreaction move in red.
I've mapped out three scenarios for the coming sessions:
🟢 Bullish Scenario
If TSLA reclaims 391.00 and then pushes through 406.00, the path opens toward 412.00 and eventually the 429.55 daily level. This is the continuation setup, but it needs strength above the overhead trendline and clean acceptance back into the upper range.
🔴 Bearish Scenario (My Lean)
This is the scenario I'm leaning toward. If 380.05 fails and TSLA loses 381.00, the next clean downside targets are 370.00 and 364.00, with a deeper flush toward the red implied move zone near 354.00 possible on an earnings overreaction. A deceptively bullish drift into earnings could still roll over hard, so I’d be watching for rejection near 391.00 and failed intraday rebounds.
🟡 Sideways Scenario
If TSLA stays boxed between 381.00 and 391.00, expect chop and compression ahead of earnings. In that zone, theta decay and IV expansion risk can make premium bleed quickly unless momentum breaks one of those boundaries. While possible I just don't see this chopping sideways through earnings
Earnings & Implied Move
The chart shows a wide implied move window into earnings, with a green upside range near 406.00 and a red downside range near 354.00. IV should stay elevated into the report, but IV crush after earnings can punish anyone chasing premium too early, which is why I prefer defined-risk setups and quick reaction trades over holding through the event.
My Outlook
If I had to rank the probabilities today:
🔴 Bearish (my current lean)
🟢 Bullish breakout
🟡 Sideways consolidation
That ranking can change quickly if TSLA reclaims 391.00 and especially 406.00 with momentum, but until then I’m respecting the downside risk and the possibility of a post-earnings overreaction.
Side these scenarios can go both ways with a continuation and sell of lower and you can see overreactions on bullish runs this was just the way I chose to illustrate it
As always, the Heavy Diligence Options Signals Indicator will be my primary tool for entries and exits. While these scenarios provide the broader roadmap, the indicator is designed primarily for day trading on shorter timeframes, helping identify higher-probability Call and Put opportunities. Combining those signals with key technical levels helps improve risk management instead of simply guessing the next move.
Disclaimer: This is only my interpretation of the current chart and is not financial advice. Always do your own research, wait for confirmation, and manage your risk before entering any trade. 
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$SKHY (ADR): Experiencing the Same Selloff Pattern as $SPCX ?Looking at the chart, I noticed that NASDAQ:SKHY (ADR) is showing a remarkably similar selloff pattern to NASDAQ:SPCX .
During the U.S. market open on July 17, NASDAQ:SKHY briefly broke below its IPO price of $149 , then staged a strong recovery and rallied back to test the 0.382 Fib retracement . The price action closely mirrors what we previously saw in $SPCX.
In one of my Ideas last week, I wrote:
"If NASDAQ:SPCX breaks below the $150 low, the next downside target is around $130. If selling pressure continues, the decline could even extend toward $84."
Applying the same technical framework, if NASDAQ:SKHY fails to reclaim the $168 key level next week, the stock could be setting up for another leg lower, with the $135 area becoming the next major downside target.
Another factor worth watching is the current valuation gap. NASDAQ:SKHY (ADR) is trading at roughly a 25% premium to its Korea-listed shares.
On July 29 , the ADRs and the Korea-listed shares will become mutually convertible. This event is likely to compress that premium—either through a decline in the U.S.-listed ADR, an appreciation in the Korean shares, or a combination of both.
That said, while the ADR may remain under pressure in the short term, the long-term fundamentals remain intact. The structural DRAM supply shortage and continued HBM demand have not changed, and I remain bullish on the memory semiconductor sector over the long run.
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