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NVDA After FOMC: Can 220 Turn the Next Move Into a Breakout?NASDAQ:NVDA
FOMC is done, but for me the real trade starts with the reaction. The Fed raised rates by 25bps to 3.75%–4.00%, and now I’m watching which stocks can actually hold their levels. NASDAQ:NVDA is the one I’m focusing on.
📊 My NVDA setup
NVDA is trading around $213.89 on the 4H chart after getting rejected from the 232–234 area. The level I care about now is 216–220.
If price reclaims 220 and holds above it, I’m watching 228 first, then 232–234. That would give me a clear breakout structure instead of chasing candles.
If 220 keeps rejecting, I’m not forcing an entry. The next area I’m watching is 208–210, with 200 as the major support.
My invalidation is simple: if the 208–210 support zone breaks with confirmation, the bullish setup loses strength.
⚠️ The risk
The biggest mistake here would be assuming that FOMC being over automatically means stocks should move higher. The market still has to confirm it.
That’s why I marked the zones instead of trying to predict every candle. I want price to come to my levels and show me what it wants to do.
🎯 Why Bitget for this setup?
This is also why I like trading the setup through Bitget. NVDA Stock Perps are available 24/7, so I’m not limited to traditional U.S. market hours. I can use USDT, go long or short, and manage the position even when Nasdaq is closed.
Bitget also puts Stocks, CFDs and Crypto on the same platform. For a trader who watches both traditional markets and crypto, that makes switching between markets much easier.
Liquidity is another big reason. The current Bitget’s market-depth position for U.S. Stock Perps against Binance, OKX, Bybit and Hyperliquid. For a setup like NVDA, where execution matters around key levels, I’d rather trade where there is strong order-book depth and less concern about unnecessary slippage.
Bitget also supports standard futures-style tools like limit, market, trigger, TP and SL orders, while stock futures remain available 24/7.
📌 Final plan
Above 220 → 228 → 232–234
Below 208–210 → 200
Between those levels → wait.
I’m adding this setup to my KCGI TradingView journal. No forced trade. I’ll let NVDA confirm the direction first. 
Long
Week 38 of 52 | NBIS Can $228 Hold?When I covered NASDAQ:NBIS in Week 21, the stock was in a powerful momentum phase. It had already made a major move, but the chart was still behaving well: higher highs, higher lows, and pullbacks that were being bought before they could turn into real damage.
The main risk at that point was not that the story would suddenly disappear. It was that the stock had become extended and would eventually need a deeper reset. That is what we got.
NBIS pushed toward $300, then gave back a large part of that move and traded down into the $150–160 area. That zone mattered because it was the first place where the prior expansion could realistically reset without completely breaking the larger bullish structure. Buyers showed up there, and the rebound was sharp.
The problem is that the first attempt to continue higher stalled near $250. That was not a random number. It is a major round-number level, it sits below the prior highs, and it became the first area where sellers clearly stepped back in. The rejection from $250 brought NBIS back into the middle of its recent range.
Now the stock is trading near $228 in premarket. This is the level I am focused on.
$228 is not the final breakout level, but it is an important pivot. A move above it that holds through the regular session would suggest that the recent bounce is gaining traction and that buyers are willing to support price above the middle of the range. If that happens, $250 becomes the obvious next test.
For the bullish case to improve materially, I would want to see more than a quick premarket spike. I would want to see price hold above $228, pull back without immediately losing it, and ideally build volume as it approaches $250. A close above $250 would be much more meaningful than simply touching it. That would put the $280 area back on the chart, with the prior $300 high as the larger upside reference.
On the downside, the first level to watch is around $209. If NBIS cannot hold $228 and begins fading through that area, the market is telling us that the reclaim failed. Below there, $196.50 is the more important support. That was the base of the recent move and losing it would likely shift the focus back toward the $160 area.
Fundamentally, the AI infrastructure story is still there. Demand for compute remains strong and Nebius has secured meaningful customer commitments. But this is also a capital-intensive business. The financing needed to build out capacity has become part of the chart, especially after the recent convertible-debt pressure. That does not invalidate the long-term thesis, but it explains why the stock can move violently in both directions.
So I would not treat a green premarket as confirmation by itself.
NBIS has already shown that buyers will defend the bigger support zones. The next question is whether they can reclaim $228 and turn it into support. If they can, $250 is back in play. If they cannot, patience is still the better trade.
Not financial advice. 
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Is SMCI in the Early Stages of Another Short Squeeze?SMCI is one of those stocks where the chart can look boring right up until it suddenly isn’t.
After zooming out, I think there is a legitimate argument that SMCI may be entering the early stages of another squeeze-type setup.
I want to be careful with the wording there.
I am not saying a short squeeze is guaranteed.
I am saying the combination of structure + short interest + possible catalysts is interesting enough that I think the setup deserves real attention.
The structure is what caught my eye first
On the larger daily chart, SMCI has spent months building a broad base.
Below current price, HDTL shows a dense cluster of projected AOAs around:
$27
$28
$30
$31
$32
$34
That is a lot of historical agreement underneath price.
Above current price?
The structure gets much thinner.
The next areas I care about are roughly:
$37–$38
$40
$45
$52
And that is where this starts getting interesting.
The $45 area is not just some random upside target I drew on the chart.
It lines up with the next major Projected AOA and also gets into the neighborhood of the larger descending trendline.
So if SMCI can reclaim $38, then build acceptance over $40, I think the market starts opening the door toward $45. And if $45 eventually breaks with real participation? Then the structure above gets even more interesting.
Now add the short interest
This is where the squeeze discussion comes in. As of the latest reported data, roughly 93.4 million SMCI shares were sold short, representing around 17%–19% of the float depending on the float calculation used. Short interest had also increased from the prior reporting period. That is meaningful. It does not mean shorts are automatically trapped. It does mean there is a large pool of potential future buyers if price starts moving against them. That is how I think about short interest, It is fuel. It is not the ignition. Something still has to force those positions to reconsider.
And that brings us to catalysts.
What could provide the ignition?
There are several possibilities.
Supermicro entered fiscal 2027 with record backlog and said it received more than $60 billion in new orders during the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026.
The company is also guiding fiscal 2027 revenue to roughly $65B–$72B, well above where Wall Street expectations had been sitting before that forecast.
That matters because the fundamental debate around SMCI is not whether AI infrastructure demand exists.
It clearly does.
The debate is whether SMCI can convert that demand into sustainable revenue growth and acceptable margins.
The company is heavily exposed to the AI infrastructure cycle through systems built around NVIDIA Blackwell and Blackwell Ultra, with liquid-cooled rack-scale deployments becoming increasingly important.
NVIDIA itself says Blackwell continues to represent the majority of its system shipments while Vera Rubin has begun production shipments, with demand remaining strong enough that supply constraints are still an issue.
That gives SMCI several possible catalysts:
AI infrastructure demand remains stronger than feared
large customer/order announcements
better-than-expected margins
continued backlog conversion
strong Blackwell / Rubin deployment commentary
analyst upgrades or target increases
another strong earnings reaction
a broader AI infrastructure rally
And then there is the technical catalyst:
price itself.
Sometimes the catalyst for a squeeze is simply crossing the level everyone thought would hold.
The three scenarios I’m watching
🔵 BLUE 45%
This is currently my highest-weighted scenario.
SMCI reclaims $38, begins building acceptance above $40, and buyers start pressing into the thinner structure above.
If that happens while volume expands, I think $45 becomes a very realistic decision area.
And this is where the short interest becomes important.
If price starts approaching $45 while the fundamental narrative is simultaneously improving, some shorts may decide they no longer want to wait around and see what happens.
That covering can add fuel to an already advancing move.
And if SMCI eventually clears $45 + the larger descending trendline, I would start looking toward the next larger structural area around $52.
That is the setup where the words short squeeze start becoming much more interesting.
🟢 GREEN 35%
Still bullish.
Just slower.
SMCI repairs gradually:
$38 → $40 → consolidation → $45
Instead of a violent squeeze, we get a healthier grind higher.
Honestly, this might be the better long-term outcome.
It allows structure to develop and gives price time to prove that buyers are actually accepting higher valuations rather than just chasing momentum.
Shorts may still cover along the way, but it is controlled rather than explosive.
🔴 RED 20%
The bullish thesis weakens considerably if SMCI loses $34 and starts accepting back into the dense $30–$32 AOA cluster.
That would tell me the recent move was probably just another failed repair.
And this is important:
High short interest does not protect a stock from going down.
A company can remain heavily shorted for a very long time if the bearish thesis remains intact.
That is why I will never look at 17%+ short interest and automatically say:
“Squeeze incoming.”
Price still has to prove it.
The biggest thing I am watching
Volume.
Yesterday SMCI gained about 3.4%, but volume was only around 31 million shares versus roughly 46 million average. That is not what I would call breakout participation.
So if Blue is really developing, I want to see that change.
A break through $38 / $40 accompanied by expanding participation would mean much more to me than price drifting through those levels on light volume.
Because the squeeze equation is really:
technical breakout
1. catalyst
2. expanding volume
3. large short base
= potential forced buying
Not:
lots of shorts = moon
Bottom line
Do I think SMCI is definitely beginning another short squeeze?
No.
Do I think the conditions exist for one to develop?
Absolutely.
The short interest is there.
The catalysts are there.
The AI infrastructure demand is there.
And most importantly:
the chart is approaching levels where the structure begins to open up.
That is why $38 → $40 → $45 matters so much to me.
If price earns those levels with real volume, this gets very interesting very quickly. 
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QSR vs. McDonald’s: Same Industry. Two Opposite Trends. Your PicTwo restaurant giants. One indicator. A very different message.
Put Restaurant Brands International (QSR) and McDonald’s (MCD) side by side on the weekly chart, with the 50-week EMA, and the contrast is striking.
🟢 QSR: Buyers are defending the trend
Price remains above a rising 50-week EMA, with the recent pullback testing that trend area. Buyers still have something to defend.
The next challenge? The $80–82 area , where previous advances have stalled. Holding the EMA and clearing that resistance would strengthen the bullish case. A sustained weekly break below the average would weaken it.
🔴 MCD: A big name facing a difficult chart
McDonald’s is trading below a falling 50-week EMA, with lower highs and lower lows defining the recent decline.
The $240–250 area is worth watching against previous weekly lows. But support alone does not confirm a reversal. I would want to see a base develop, a higher low, and eventually a reclaim of the weekly EMA.
My technical pick today: QSR.
Its weekly structure looks stronger. That does not make it an automatic buy: the entry price and distance to invalidation still matter.
MCD could offer a recovery opportunity, but the chart has yet to confirm that buyers have regained control.
The 50-week EMA is my trend filter, not a guarantee. Weekly closes matter more than intrawEEK moves.
🔥 If you could own only ONE for the next 12 months, which would you choose?
QSR’s stronger trend or MCD’s potential comeback?
Drop your ticker below and the ONE signal that would make you change your mind. Let’s compare the reasoning behind the picks.
Technical analysis based on the displayed weekly charts. Educational purposes only; not investment advice.
Laurent - Private Investor
✅ DL INVEST | Community Leader
NIO to $60 - April 1st, It's no joke - 2026Everyone is watching stocks get battered. The geopolitical headlines are relentless, the sentiment awful, and the retail crowd has long since given up. Good. That’s usually when the chart starts doing something interesting.
NIO Inc has corrected over 90% from its all time high. It has spent years inside a punishing downtrend channel, grinding the patience of anyone still holding. And then, quietly, when no one is looking. . resistance breakout, something that has not printed in over 5 years: A higher low. The first since 2020.
On the above 3 week chart a number of reasons now exist for a bullish outlook, they include:
The first higher low since 2020 has printed. This is not a minor development. For five years NIO made nothing but lower lows. That sequence has now been broken. In technical analysis, a change in market structure is the earliest and most reliable signal of a trend reversal. Look left, is this time really different?
Breakout from the multi-year descending channel. Price action has broken out from a descending channel that has contained the downtrend since 2021. A breakout from a channel of this duration, on this timeframe, is not noise. This is the market telling you something.
Return to legacy support and confirmation. The horizontal support level that held price in the pre-breakout era has been retested and held. Former resistance, now support. Classic, significant, textbook.
Bullish divergence. A confirmed positive divergence with price action on this timeframe is not a blip that fizzles out in a handful of weeks. It means something considerably more dramatic.
The measured move is extraordinary. The prior cycle took NIO from low single digits to over $60. The measured move from the current base, when applied to the breakout point, produces a forecast consistent with a return to all-time highs. Yes, really.
Forecasts:
1st, $12 - the first meaningful resistance zone.
2nd, $22 - mid range resistance from the descent. The point where former support becomes a serious test.
3rd, $60 - the measured move. The all-time high area, the moment the crowd arrives and declared it’s obvious. By then, the work is already done.
What about the downside?
A 3 week close back inside the descending channel invalidate the thesis. The higher low needs to hold.
The crowd
Right now, NIO is associated with a long list of grievances: competition from BYD, cash burn, Chinese regulatory risk, US tariff uncertainty, dilution, and a stock that has done nothing but disappoint for years. The sentiment is universally poor. The comments on any bullish NIO idea are merciless. (Sarcasm alert: obviously this is the perfect time to avoid it entirely.)
History does not repeat. But it rhymes. Loudly.
Conclusions
Alright, here’s the idea in plain English because the market doesn’t care about your feelings, and neither does my chart. NIO has spent five years being absolutely terrible. It has corrected over 90%, burned capital, missed targets, and provided ample opportunity for anyone who owned it to question every decision they’ve ever made. And yet here we are. A 3-week chart. A higher low. A channel breakout. The measured move pointing at $60.
The chart doesn’t know about the bad headlines. It doesn’t read Twitter. It doesn’t know that NIO is the stock everyone loves to mock at dinner parties. It just prints candles, and right now, the candles are telling a different story to the one you’ve been hearing.
Ww
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Disclaimer
This is not financial advice. It is not investment advice. It is not advice of any kind. It is a person, on the internet, looking at lines on a chart and writing things down. If that sentence describes the entirety of your research process before committing real money to a position, then the chart is not your problem.
I hold no position in NIO at the time of writing. I could be completely wrong. The company could announce something catastrophic tomorrow. The chart could fail. Markets do that. They’re allowed.
Do your own research. Manage your own risk. Don’t size into anything you aren’t prepared to watch go to zero. That’s the deal. It always has been.
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COIN — Final Correction Before the Next Major Bullish WaveCOIN remains inside the long-term ascending structure that has developed from the 2022–2023 cycle lows.
The current move still looks like a large correction within that broader uptrend. After topping near the $400 area, COIN has continued to retrace toward the lower section of the long-term rising channel. Based on the current channel geometry, I expect the final stage of this correction to develop between now and roughly April–June 2027.
The key area I am watching is around $153. As long as COIN continues to respect the lower boundary of the long-term ascending structure, the larger bullish framework remains valid.
Once this correction is completed and price confirms a reversal from the lower part of the channel, I expect COIN to begin its next major bullish wave.
The first important upside area is around $440. If price successfully breaks through the previous major resistance structure, the move could then expand toward approximately $770, followed by the $980–$1,150 region.
My primary long-term target is around $984–$1,156, which corresponds to the upper section of the long-term ascending channel under the projected path shown on the chart.
The final upside level will depend heavily on the speed of the rally. If COIN rises more gradually, the upper boundary of the channel will continue moving higher over time, allowing a higher eventual target. A faster move would reach the same structural resistance earlier and therefore at a lower price.
My expected path is therefore:
current correction → major support around $153→ final bottoming process → new bullish expansion → $440 → $770 → $980–$1,150
The main condition for this thesis is that the long-term ascending channel remains intact. A sustained breakdown below that structure would invalidate the current projection. 
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Fed raises rates as SK Hynix negotiates with IntelIon Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) shares were up 3.2% in pre-market trading on Thursday, while SK Hynix rose 2.6%, after Reuters reported that both companies are negotiating the possibility of manufacturing memory chips in the United States for the first time. Options would include leasing part of Intel’s future Ohio plant or creating a joint venture with major cloud computing companies. Neither party has confirmed a finalized agreement.
The market was also reacting to the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, to 3.75%-4%, in its first rate hike in three years. The Nasdaq was virtually flat, in a session in which the impact of higher interest rates on technology valuations contrasted with the boost from investment related to artificial intelligence.
For Intel, an agreement with SK Hynix could help improve the utilization of its manufacturing capacity and strengthen its foundry business. The unit generated just $293 million from external customers in the latest quarter, compared with $5.77 billion in total revenue. The Ohio plant, whose investment could reach $100 billion, has remained slowed since 2025 amid lower-than-expected demand.
For SK Hynix, manufacturing in the United States would allow it to bring part of its production closer to the U.S. market at a time of political pressure to relocate advanced semiconductor manufacturing. It could also facilitate access to additional capacity for HBM memory, used in data centers that are driving demand associated with artificial intelligence. Any agreement involving advanced technology could also require authorization from South Korean authorities.
On the daily chart, Intel is trading around $100-$103, above its 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages, located at approximately $94, $98-$99 and $75, respectively. The RSI remains between 54 and 61 points, while the MACD remains positive. Support is located at $94-$99, while resistance is at $113-$115. Confirmation of the agreement could put that resistance to the test, while a deterioration in the negotiations would shift the focus back towards the lower support level.
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OKTA — AI Agent Security: A Sector Worth WatchingThe rise of AI agents raises a critical question: who controls what they can access and what they are allowed to do?
Identity security could become an increasingly important part of this transformation. With its dedicated AI agent security offering, Okta is positioning itself in this emerging market.
On the daily chart, the technical structure looks constructive: higher highs and higher lows, price holding above the Ichimoku cloud, and a fresh push higher following consolidation.
The 50-day EMA is a key reference to monitor. A controlled pullback followed by a bullish reaction at this moving average would strengthen the continuation scenario. Conversely, a break below it, combined with a loss of the latest consolidation low, would weaken the setup.
Following the recent advance, entry discipline matters. I would watch for either a successful retest of the breakout area or a new consolidation that establishes clear support.
A compelling theme, a constructive chart, and a stock worth keeping on the watchlist.
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
Laurent - Private Investor
✅ DL INVEST | Community Leader
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