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AMZN: Resistance Broken, Draw to C?The NASDAQ:AMZN 4h chart is showing a really clean breakout here. For a while, price was hitting a wall at that grey S&R zone around the $248–$250 area, but this latest push has finally cleared it. It's key to notice that we’re currently operating inside a monthly FVG, which acts as our Internal Range Liquidity (IRL).
Since we've tapped this IRL, the logical delivery for price is to seek out External Range Liquidity (ERL) as the primary draw. Structurally, everything is aligning nicely with this A-B-C framework. We've established a solid Wave B low, found support at the minor 'BC' block, and are now breaking upward toward the blue 'ABC Target' box between $270 and $278.
Ultimately, the big magnet sits up at the previous highs around $280, representing the major ERL and our main draw on liquidity. With that old S&R ceiling now acting as a floor underneath, the direction of travel is incredibly clear. We're in the middle of a classic IRL to ERL expansion, and all signs point to completing this Wave C leg. 
Long
IBM: Wall Street Says the Floor Isn't Here YetA quarter of IBM's value gone in a single session. A second day of bleeding on top of it. A securities-law shop already circling with a shareholder investigation notice before the dust has even settled. And now Morgan Stanley telling clients, in writing, not to assume the worst is over. This is what a stock looks like when nobody's caught the falling knife yet.
Two days, -27%, and Wall Street's own analysts aren't calling a bottom
IBM closed Monday at 290.23. Tuesday's preliminary Q2 warning — revenue about $17.2 billion, roughly $660 million below what Wall Street expected, adjusted EPS $2.93 against a $3.01 consensus — took it to 217.07, down 25.2% in a single session, the worst day in the company's 115-year history. Wednesday added another 2.7% on top, closing at 211.20 and briefly trading below its 52-week low in after-hours action. That's a two-day, ~$79-per-share collapse: -27.2% from Monday's close. Morgan Stanley's own note, out Tuesday night, put it plainly: "IBM's steep plunge... likely doesn't represent a floor for the stock." Their reasoning — the memory-shortage headwind behind this spending shift could persist through 2027.
Why the money actually left
The headline miss wasn't a demand collapse. Software revenue grew 5%. Infrastructure fell 7%. CEO Arvind Krishna's explanation: clients are redirecting IT budgets away from software and infrastructure and toward AI hardware — servers, storage, memory — to make sure they have the capacity before someone else takes it. IBM was standing in the wrong line when the money moved.
A crack in the AI trade, not a market panic
Here's what makes this worth watching past just IBM: the Wall Street Journal's own coverage framed the warning as a possible signal that "corporate America is starting to run out of runway for AI spending" — a concern, they wrote, "far beyond just IBM shareholders." And yet the rest of the tape looked fine the same day: cooler U.S. inflation numbers took a Fed rate hike off the table, Goldman Sachs jumped 9% on blowout earnings, and Europe's ASML posted its own blockbuster quarter hours after IBM's stock kept falling. Software names sold off with IBM at the open — Accenture, DXC, ServiceNow, Workday, Salesforce — but by midday the software ETF (IGV) had clawed back to positive while IBM stayed down roughly 26%. Cybersecurity ran the other way entirely, with CrowdStrike and Okta both up double digits. Put together: this isn't a market that's rolling over. It's a market where the money is being sorted hard into winners and losers, and IBM just found out which side of that line it's on.
The floor that isn't holding
MAKE-OR-BREAK 212 — the 52-week low. IBM traded below it in Wednesday's after-hours session for the first time in over a year. Not a confirmed close yet — that has to happen in regular trading — but the level that was supposed to be the line has already been crossed once, and the desk that covers this stock closely (Morgan Stanley) isn't calling it done.
FIRST TEST 228 — last quarter's floor from February and March, the level Tuesday's crash blew straight through. Any real bounce has to reclaim this first just to prove the panic-selling is over.
RECLAIM 264 — the floor IBM defended twice in the months after its May 21 earnings-gap rally to 332. Getting back above this says buyers are back in control of the pre-crash structure.
Two ways this plays out
Bounce: a daily close back above 228 → targets 264 first, then the 290 pre-crash close.
Breakdown confirmed: a daily close below 212 → targets the low-200s, territory IBM hasn't traded in for over a year, with Morgan Stanley's own note suggesting weakness could persist into 2027.
Between 212 and 228 — no trade. That's the pocket where a post-market dip can look worse than it turns out to be by the next close.
Invalidation
The bearish read dies on a close back above 228, and dies completely above 264. No shame either way — a stock that just had the worst two days of its public life, with its own sell-side analysts declining to call a floor, hasn't earned a real range yet.
What this rhymes with
If Micron and SanDisk on this page are the winners of the AI capex build-out, IBM's crash is the reminder that somebody has to lose that budget. The AI spending boom isn't free money showing up for every tech company — it's being pulled from somewhere. This week it was pulled from software and mainframe budgets at a 115-year-old company now trading below where it's been in over a year, while the chipmakers on the other side of that trade posted their best quarters yet. Watch that divide — a market that keeps rewarding the hardware side of AI and punishing everything downstream of it eventually runs out of downstream to punish.
The next confirmed close tells you whether 212 was a level or just a number it touched on the way through. I will update this idea the moment it actually closes on either side of it. Advanced Micro Devices.(AMD): Bullish Trend Continues, Eyes ATH!Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) stock is trading around the $500-$533 range. Despite a recent 3% to 4% dip linked to broader semiconductor sector shifts, analysts remain heavily bullish. Several major firms have raised price targets, driven by strong AI server demand and upcoming product developments.
Technical Insights:
Stock has persist its ascending channel momentum, trending on Higher highs and lows, in respect of the structure. Sellers comes in the market for short terms, while the buyers takes in charge of the overall trend. Price is at the trendline support, as we anticipate a new All Time High Bullish.
key Outline:
A clear reverse at this point, triggers a buy continuation, eyeing $590, as next potential high.
Thanks for reading. 
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SPCX - Space X outlook#SPCX Unlock Timeline: Why Investors Should Pay Attention
Massive Decline Since IPO:
Since its IPO, SpaceX ( NASDAQ:SPCX ) has dropped nearly 50%, including a 41% decline from its peak, wiping out approximately $1.2 trillion in market value. While many investors are focused on the recent selloff, an even bigger catalyst is approaching.
Share Unlocks Could Increase Selling Pressure:
Currently, only 4.9% of SPCX shares are in the free float, meaning the vast majority remain locked. Over the next 14 months, millions of additional shares will gradually become eligible for trading, significantly increasing the available supply.
Key unlock dates:
* Aug 8: Free float rises to 11.8%
* Aug 20: 15.2%
* Sep 9: 17.7%
* Sep 24: 20.1%
* Oct 9: 22.6%
* Oct 24: 25.1%
* Nov: Jumps from 27.6% → 37.5%
* Dec 8: Reaches 40.0%
The Biggest Event Is Still Ahead:
The largest unlock arrives on June 12, 2027, when Elon's 46.1% stake becomes eligible for trading. This alone increases the free float from 50.8% to 96.9% in a single day. By September 2027, nearly 100% of SPCX shares will be freely tradable.
What This Means:
Share unlocks don't guarantee selling, but they dramatically increase the potential supply of shares entering the market. With SPCX already under heavy pressure, these unlocks could bring higher volatility and additional downside if buying demand cannot absorb the increased supply.
Keep these unlock dates on your radar. They could become some of the biggest catalysts for SPCX over the coming months. 
Long
BlackRock sets a record with iShares as the driving forceIon Jauregui – ActivTrades Analyst
BlackRock (NYSE: BLK) reached $15.34 trillion in assets under management for the first time, up 22% from a year ago, driven by strong market performance and significant capital inflows into its exchange-traded funds. The world’s largest asset manager recorded $192 billion in net inflows, led by iShares, and posted adjusted earnings per share of $13.91, significantly above the $12.59 expected by the analyst consensus. In addition, the company reported quarterly revenue of $7.084 billion and increased its share buyback programme to $2 billion, reinforcing market confidence in its outlook.
The market reaction was immediate. The stock closed Wednesday’s session at $1,025.44, after opening with a bullish gap of more than $50, and during the session it moved above $1,093 per share. In overnight trading, the stock again moved above $1,100, reflecting that buying interest remains strong following the earnings release.
From a technical perspective, the move has been accompanied by a significant increase in volatility. The share price has traded within a range between $990.35 and $1,113, while the Point of Control (POC) is currently located around $1,079, a level that concentrates the highest traded volume and could act as a dynamic support area in the coming sessions.
The moving averages continue to show a phase of price compression, indicating that, despite the strong bullish gap, the stock remains within a broad consolidation range that began several months ago. The rally allowed the price to test the upper part of this range, although a sustained breakout above recent highs will still be required to confirm a continuation of the trend.
Momentum indicators maintain a positive bias. The MACD continues to strengthen, with a rising histogram reflecting an acceleration in bullish momentum, while the RSI, currently around 66 points, is entering a moderate overbought zone without yet showing clear signs of exhaustion.
In this context, the technical scenario continues to favour an extension of the move towards the $1,181.36 resistance level, corresponding to the highs recorded in January. As an alternative scenario, a technical pullback towards the $1,040 area, where the latest bullish move began, cannot be ruled out, particularly after a session with exceptionally high volume in which, despite the strong intraday advance, the candle closed with limited directional conviction. Nevertheless, a deeper correction would become less likely as long as the price continues to consolidate above the area between the $1,079 POC and the $1,040 support level, which will be key zones for assessing the strength of the short-term trend.
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NB: Strategic Mineral Supply Chain Catalysts Fuel Macro Setup### **The Macro Picture**
Following a multi-year consolidation phase, **NioCorp Developments Ltd. ( NASDAQ:NB $)** has coiled into a massive, textbook **Symmetrical Triangle** pattern on the weekly timeframe.
Price is currently trading at **$4.75** (with overnight active pricing hovering around **$4.62**), testing the absolute lower ascending support boundary. This is a massive, high-timeframe "make-or-break" accumulation region. A successful defense of this primary structural floor sets the stage for an explosive macro breakout.
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### **Key Technical Parameters**
Our high-timeframe layout highlights a highly structured bottoming play with asymmetric upside potential:
* **Entry Trigger Zone:** **$4.79** *(Requires a weekly close above the immediate consolidation structure to confirm the initial shift in trend)*.
* **Current Price:** **$4.75** (testing the macro triangle support).
* **Stop Loss (Invalidation):** **$2.00** *(Set safely below the major multi-year horizontal support zone)*.
* **Macro Target:** **$30.64** *(Projected using the full structural height of the multi-year symmetrical triangle)*.
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### **Supporting Indicators & Fundamental Tailwinds**
* **Adaptive RSI Supertrend:** The weekly momentum oscillator has cooled off completely and is resting near oversold territory. This confirms selling exhaustion at the exact moment price is testing the key lower boundary of the triangle.
* **Weekly Bias:** The right panel displays a **"WEEKLY BULLISH"** status, indicating that the higher-timeframe trend retains structural support despite near-term downward volatility.
* **Major Fundamental Catalysts:**
* **Imminent Strategic Alliances:** In a blockbuster CNBC "Squawk Box Asia" appearance on **July 13, 2026**, NioCorp CEO Mark A. Smith stated that multinational trade agreements to secure critical and rare-earth minerals with U.S. allies (such as the G7, Japan, the EU, and Mexico) are actively ongoing and could be announced "literally any day." This follows the expiration of the administration's 180-day Section 232 deadline to address foreign critical mineral reliance.
* **EXIM Debt Financing Precedent:** NioCorp is in advanced, late-stage discussions with the U.S. Export-Import Bank (EXIM) for a major debt financing package to fund its flagship Elk Creek Project. The execution of EXIM's massive $2.9 billion commitment to Perpetua's Stibnite project earlier this year serves as a powerful precedent.
* **Policy Tailwinds:** Elk Creek is rapidly de-risked by state tax incentives of up to $200 million in Nebraska, alongside the rollout of the White House's **"Project Vault"** critical mineral stockpile initiative designed to build strategic domestic reserves.
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### **Trade Outlook**
With the price compressing heavily near the apex of this multi-year triangle, the risk-to-reward ratio is heavily asymmetric. We are looking for a clean weekly close above **$4.79** to confirm the breakout and unlock the macro path toward the long-term **$30.64** target. Meanwhile, maintaining structural support above the **$2.00** invalidation level is essential to keep the macro bullish thesis intact.
What are your thoughts on NioCorp's position in the race for domestic critical mineral independence? Drop your thoughts in the comments below, and don't forget to like and follow for more clean setups!
**#TaxpayerTrades**
---
### **Disclaimer**
*This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, or trading advice. Trading equities and critical mineral stocks involves a high degree of risk, volatility, and can result in the loss of principal. Please conduct your own due diligence or consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.* 
Long
NIO: Macro Accumulation Base Eyes $+12$ Trend Reversal### **The Macro Picture**
Following a prolonged macro correction, **NIO Inc. ( NYSE:NIO $)** is carving out a major high-timeframe accumulation base on the weekly chart.
Price is currently trading at **$5.03** (with overnight active pricing hovering at **$5.12**). The bulls have successfully defended the crucial macro support zone at **$4.00**, and the price action is beginning to curve upward within the horizontal range. This successful defense of the range lows presents a highly asymmetric risk-to-reward bottoming opportunity before the macro trend reversal confirms.
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### **Key Technical Parameters**
Our high-timeframe layout highlights a highly structured bottoming play with asymmetric upside potential:
* **Accumulation Buy Zone:** **$4.00 - $5.50** *(Lower end of the macro consolidation range)*.
* **Current Price:** **$5.03** (showing solid baseline support).
* **Breakout Confirmation Pivot:** **$8.00** *(A decisive weekly close above major horizontal resistance is required to trigger the macro trend reversal)*.
* **Stop Loss (Invalidation):** **$4.00** *(Invalidated on a weekly candle close below the primary "BULL" support zone)*.
* **Macro Target:** **$12.81** *(The automated projection target once the baseline accumulation phase completes)*.
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### **Supporting Indicators & Fundamental Tailwinds**
* **Adaptive RSI Supertrend:** The weekly momentum oscillator is curving up strongly from deep oversold territory. The bullish crossover above its signal line confirms long-term selling pressure has officially exhausted, creating a strong underlying bullish divergence.
* **Weekly Bias:** The higher-timeframe trend continues to hold a "WEEKLY BULLISH" bias, signaling that the primary structural trend is shifting positive despite short-term consolidation.
* **Game-Changing Semiconductor Strategic Alliance:**
* **Strategic Investment in CXMT IPO:** On **July 14, 2026**, NIO officially became a strategic investor in the initial public offering of **ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT)**—China's largest DRAM manufacturer. NIO committed **¥158 million ($23.3 million)** through its subsidiary, Nio Power Technology (Hefei) Co Ltd, securing a 0.27% stake (18.24 million shares) subject to an 18-month lock-up.
* **Securing Next-Gen EV Supply Chains:** This strategic alliance focuses on automotive-grade **LPDDR4X and LPDDR5X memory products**. These high-performance chips are critical components powering NIO's next-generation smart cockpits, vehicle infotainment systems, and advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS).
* **Hedging Cost Pressures:** Surging global memory prices have heavily pressured EV manufacturer margins, adding up to 20,000 yuan (~$3,000) in production costs per vehicle. By aligning directly with China's top domestic silicon giant, NIO vertically integrates its supply chain to protect future vehicle margins and manufacturing timelines.
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### **Trade Outlook**
With NIO currently coiling near the floor of its macro accumulation base, we are looking for a continuation back toward the range high. A clean weekly close above **$8.00** will confirm the macro trend reversal and rapidly open the path toward our target at **$12.81**. In the meantime, maintaining weekly structure above **$4.00** is key.
What are your thoughts on NIO's strategic shift toward silicon integration? Drop your thoughts in the comments below, and don't forget to like and follow for more clean setups!
**#TaxpayerTrades**
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### **Disclaimer**
*This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, or trading advice. Trading equities and ADRs involves a high degree of risk, volatility, and can result in the loss of principal. Please conduct your own due diligence or consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.* 
Long
UAMY: Multi-Year Symmetrical Triangle Eyes Huge $+30$ Target### **The Macro Picture**
Following a multi-year consolidation phase, **United States Antimony Corporation ( NYSE:UAMY $)** has coiled into a massive, textbook **Symmetrical Triangle** pattern on the weekly timeframe.
Price is currently trading at **$5.92** (with active positioning hovering right around **$6.00**), testing the lower ascending support boundary of the triangle structure. This puts NYSE:UAMY $ in a crucial "make-or-break" accumulation zone. A successful defense of this key structural boundary sets the stage for a major macro breakout.
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### **Key Technical Parameters**
Our automated pattern detector has mapped out a highly precise structural setup with an asymmetric **1:4 Risk-to-Reward ratio**:
* **Entry Trigger Zone:** **$9.30** *(Requires a definitive weekly candle close above the descending resistance line)*.
* **Current Price:** **$5.92** (coiling tightly within the apex of the structure).
* **Stop Loss (Invalidation):** **$3.03** *(Set just below the ascending support trendline)*.
* **Macro Target:** **$34.38** *(Projected using the full height of the symmetrical triangle structure)*.
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### **Supporting Indicators & Fundamental Tailwinds**
* **Adaptive RSI Supertrend:** The weekly momentum oscillator has cooled off significantly from prior overbought territory and is now leveling off near oversold thresholds, signaling that selling pressure is exhausting right as the price tests macro trendline support.
* **Weekly Bias:** The higher-timeframe trend continues to hold a "WEEKLY BULLISH" bias, indicating that the larger structural trend is still leaning positive despite short-term consolidation.
* **Massive Fundamental Catalysts:**
* **Government Contracts & Funding:** NYSE:UAMY $ holds a massive, sole-source **$245 Million contract** with the Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) to supply military-grade antimony metal ingots. This is heavily backed by a **$27 Million Pentagon grant** to upgrade domestic smelting capacity.
* **Radersburg Mill Milestone:** On **July 7, 2026**, the company celebrated the "wet commissioning" of its freshly acquired and upgraded $7.7M Radersburg flotation mill. This facility completes a fully integrated, 100% US-owned supply chain, allowing the company to ramp up the processing of high-grade antimony ore from its Montana mines.
* **Silver JV & AI Integration:** NYSE:UAMY $ recently partnered with Americas Gold and Silver to build a state-of-the-art hydrometallurgical processing plant, while integrating advanced AI geological modeling to unlock major value from its legacy Los Juarez silver asset.
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### **Trade Outlook**
With the price compressing heavily into the apex of this multi-year triangle, we are looking for a definitive weekly close above **$9.30** to trigger the macro expansion phase toward our **$34.38** target. Meanwhile, maintaining support above the **$3.03** invalidation level is essential to keep the macro bullish thesis intact.
What are your thoughts on this critical minerals macro play? Drop your thoughts in the comments below, and don't forget to like and follow for more clean setups!
**#TaxpayerTrades**
---
### **Disclaimer**
*This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, or trading advice. Trading equities and critical mineral stocks involves a high degree of risk, volatility, and can result in the loss of principal. Please conduct your own due diligence or consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.* 
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