NVDA Is Back At 202.20 - The Line That Decides The Base.NVDA Is Back At 202.20 - The Line That Decides The Base.
The euphoria cap kept working. NVDA has fallen from the 213.81 high all the way back to 202.20 over three sessions, losing 207.59 and 204.82 on the way, and is now testing the base itself at 202.49. It swept a low right at the line. This is the level that has held the entire base - hold it and the structure is intact, lose it and the base fails. Short pressure is maxed on the higher timeframe and the daily is still in euphoria. Momentum is down, but price is sitting on the one level that matters. Neutral.
Resistance: 204.82 - first level to reclaim
Key resistance: 207.59 - the lost breakout level
Current price: 202.49
Support: 202.20 - the base, the make-or-break line
Key support: 199.89 - first shelf below the base
Structural floor: 197.13 - deeper support
Two paths from here:
The base holds 202.20 and the swept low bounces. Three days down into the exact base level with a low swept is a reversal setup. If 202.20 holds and NVDA reclaims 204.82, the drop was a shakeout and the base survives. The line does its job until it does not.
The base fails on a close. Maxed short pressure and euphoria unwinding can drive right through support. A close below 202.20 breaks the base that has held for weeks and opens 199.89, then 197. Below the base, the trend changes.
NVDA gave the entire run back and is now standing on 202.20. Everything hinges here - a hold and a reclaim of 204.82 says shakeout, a close below 202.20 says the base is gone.
Built with SYNTHESIS v3.3 | SOM / ACE / IMP / SYNTHESIS
Study, not financial advice. 
Long
WALL STREET IS COUNTING EVERYTHING AGAIN—EXCEPT THE CASHThe 2026 numbers investors cannot stop quoting: AI revenue, RPO, backlog, bookings, users and gigawatts—and what each one is actually worth
Evidence date: 17 July 2026
Every market cycle develops a favourite number.
During one cycle it is users. In another, total addressable market. Then it becomes subscribers, gross merchandise value, orders, capacity or adjusted EBITDA.
In 2026, the fashionable numbers are even larger: Oracle has $638 billion of remaining performance obligations. CoreWeave has almost $100 billion of revenue backlog. GE Vernova has $163 billion of backlog. Uber processed $53.7 billion of Gross Bookings in one quarter. Snowflake has $9.21 billion of RPO. Broadcom expects billions of dollars of AI semiconductor revenue every quarter.
The numbers are real. The mistake begins when a real operating number is treated as if it were already shareholder value.
Operating metric → Revenue → Operating profit → Taxes → Reinvestment → Free cash flow → Risk and probability → Present value
That chain is the framework. This time, instead of revisiting NVIDIA, Palantir, Amazon, Meta or Tesla, we will apply it to seven additional US stocks that sit directly inside the hottest 2026 themes.
This is not a list of stocks to buy or avoid. It is a test of evidence: how far has each headline metric actually travelled towards free cash flow per share?
1. ORACLE: $638 BILLION OF RPO—AND NEGATIVE $23.7 BILLION OF FREE CASH FLOW
Oracle may be the cleanest 2026 example of why backlog and value are not the same thing.
At the end of FY2026, Oracle reported:
Remaining performance obligations of $638 billion , up 363% year over year
FY2026 revenue of $67.4 billion
Cloud revenue of $34.0 billion
Cloud Infrastructure revenue of $18.1 billion , up 77%
GAAP operating income of $20.6 billion
Operating cash flow of $32.0 billion
Capital expenditure of $55.7 billion
Free cash flow of negative $23.7 billion
The cloud demand is genuine. Q4 IaaS revenue grew 93%, and management said much of the recent RPO increase came from large AI contracts. But recognizing that RPO will require data centres, GPUs, power and years of execution.
Oracle also disclosed a useful detail: $75 billion of its large AI-contract commitments involved hardware prepaid or supplied by customers. That reduces Oracle's capital burden. It does not eliminate the need to examine the timing, margins and financing attached to the rest of the backlog.
The bridge currently looks like this:
AI contracts → $638B RPO → gradual cloud revenue → operating cash flow → massive data-centre capex → currently negative FCF
What matters next:
How much RPO converts within 12, 24 and 36 months?
What operating margin does the new AI infrastructure earn after depreciation?
Does capex growth slow before operating cash flow does?
How much funding comes from customers versus Oracle's own balance sheet?
Does free cash flow turn positive as commissioned capacity begins generating revenue?
Framework verdict: Demand pass; reinvestment bridge under maximum stress.
Human version: a signed cloud contract is economically useful, but the data centre must still be built and paid for before the contract becomes shareholder cash.
2. COREWEAVE: THE BACKLOG IS ENORMOUS—SO ARE THE CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS
CoreWeave reported Q1 2026 revenue backlog of $99.4 billion and quarterly revenue of $2.08 billion , more than double the prior-year period. It had surpassed 1 GW of active power and reported more than 3.5 GW of contracted power.
Those numbers place CoreWeave directly at the centre of AI-infrastructure demand. But its income and cash-flow statements show why backlog cannot be valued in isolation:
GAAP operating loss: $144 million
Net interest expense: $536 million
GAAP net loss: $740 million
Adjusted EBITDA: $1.16 billion
Cash from operations: $2.98 billion
Purchases of property and equipment: $7.70 billion
Subtracting reported property purchases from operating cash produces a simplified quarterly cash deficit of roughly $4.7 billion before considering financing flows. The company also had approximately $24.9 billion of current and non-current debt at quarter-end.
Why can adjusted EBITDA look strong while GAAP profit and post-capex cash look weak? Because depreciation, financing and infrastructure investment are central—not peripheral—to an AI cloud.
The company itself defines backlog broadly enough to include RPO plus other estimated future revenue under committed contracts, subject to delivery and service availability. Therefore, power, GPU supply, construction timing and customer concentration all sit between backlog and recognized revenue.
What matters next:
Backlog conversion rather than backlog growth alone
Revenue produced per active megawatt
Utilization after new capacity comes online
Interest expense as a percentage of revenue
Post-capex cash flow and new financing required per dollar of growth
Customer concentration and contract protections
Framework verdict: Revenue conversion visible; equity-cash bridge incomplete and financing-dependent.
Human version: the demand may be extraordinary, but lenders, equipment suppliers and construction spending reach the cash flow before common shareholders do.
3. BROADCOM: WHEN THE AI NUMBER ALREADY REACHES FREE CASH FLOW
Broadcom offers the opposite comparison.
In Q2 FY2026 it reported:
Total revenue of $22.19 billion , up 48%
AI semiconductor revenue of $10.8 billion , up 143%
GAAP net income of $9.31 billion
Adjusted EBITDA of $15.24 billion
Operating cash flow of $10.49 billion
Free cash flow of $10.26 billion , or 46% of revenue
Management expected Q3 AI semiconductor revenue of approximately $16 billion. More importantly, AI revenue is not merely a pipeline or capacity target. It is already included in reported semiconductor revenue and is accompanied by substantial free cash flow.
The bridge is comparatively short:
Custom AI accelerators and networking demand → semiconductor revenue → operating profit → operating cash → FCF
The remaining risk is not whether AI has started monetizing. It is whether current growth is durable. Custom accelerators can create deep customer relationships, but they can also produce concentration, product-cycle and bargaining-power risk. Investors must also separate AI growth from the infrastructure-software economics acquired with VMware.
What matters next:
AI revenue growth by accelerator and networking demand
Customer concentration and the number of hyperscale programmes
GAAP versus adjusted operating economics
FCF conversion after integration costs, interest and working capital
Whether growth remains broad when individual chip programmes change generation
Framework verdict: Strong operational and cash-flow pass.
Human version: Broadcom's AI claim is easier to audit because the story has already arrived in the cash-flow statement.
4. SNOWFLAKE: RPO AND RETENTION LOOK STRONG, BUT DILUTION CANNOT DISAPPEAR
Snowflake reported Q1 FY2027:
Product revenue of $1.33 billion , up 34%
Net revenue retention of 126%
Remaining performance obligations of $9.21 billion , up 38%
779 customers generating more than $1 million of trailing product revenue
GAAP operating loss of $326 million
Free cash flow of $233 million
Adjusted free cash flow of $266 million
RPO indicates contracted future business, while 126% net revenue retention means the existing customer base is spending more after churn and contraction. Both are valuable signals.
But Snowflake uses a consumption model. A contract does not guarantee that revenue will arrive evenly, and optimization by customers can affect usage. More importantly, Q1 stock-based compensation was approximately $402 million —larger than reported free cash flow.
SBC is non-cash in the quarter, but not economically free. If it increases diluted shares, part of the company's future cash flow belongs to additional shares.
RPO and consumption → product revenue → GAAP operating result → operating cash → FCF → divide by diluted shares
What matters next:
Product-revenue growth relative to RPO growth
Net revenue retention without excessive discounts
GAAP operating-loss improvement
SBC as a percentage of revenue
FCF per diluted share—not only company-level adjusted FCF
AI workloads that create paid consumption rather than demonstrations
Framework verdict: Commercial bridge passes; GAAP profitability and dilution remain the missing pieces.
Human version: cash flow is more valuable when the same shareholders still own roughly the same percentage of it.
5. GE VERNOVA: THE POWER BACKLOG IS STARTING TO SHOW MARGINS
The AI buildout is not only a semiconductor story. Data centres need turbines, transformers, grid equipment and reliable electricity.
GE Vernova's Q1 2026 numbers included:
Orders of $18.3 billion , up 71% organically
Total backlog of $163 billion
Gas Power backlog and slot reservations of 100 GW
Revenue of $9.3 billion
Adjusted EBITDA of $0.9 billion , with a 9.6% margin
Free cash flow of $4.8 billion
Raised FY2026 FCF guidance of $6.5–7.5 billion
This is a stronger backlog bridge than a company that has not yet demonstrated execution. Revenue, adjusted margin and cash generation are all moving in the right direction.
Still, two adjustments matter. First, reported Q1 net income included $4.5 billion of pre-tax M&A gains, primarily related to Prolec GE; that should not be treated as recurring operating profit. Second, quarterly free cash flow can be affected by customer advances and working-capital timing in long-cycle businesses.
What matters next:
Backlog conversion schedule by equipment and services
Price, cost and warranty assumptions on long-duration contracts
Adjusted EBITDA margin as deliveries increase
Customer advances versus sustainable cash generation
Service revenue attached to the installed equipment base
Whether data-centre demand adds capacity without damaging project discipline
Framework verdict: Strong backlog-to-revenue bridge; normalize gains and working capital before valuing cash flow.
Human version: a turbine slot has more value when the manufacturer can deliver it at an attractive margin and later earn service revenue from the installed base.
6. UBER: $53.7 BILLION OF BOOKINGS DOES NOT BELONG TO UBER
Uber completed 3.64 billion trips in Q1 2026 and reported 199 million monthly active platform consumers. Gross Bookings reached $53.7 billion .
But Gross Bookings represents the total value moving through the platform. Drivers, couriers, merchants, taxes and other parties receive much of that amount.
Uber itself reported:
Revenue of $13.2 billion
GAAP operating income of $1.92 billion
Adjusted EBITDA of $2.5 billion
Operating cash flow of $2.4 billion
Free cash flow of $2.3 billion
That gives us a visible conversion chain:
Consumers and trips → Gross Bookings → Uber's revenue/take → operating income → FCF
Uber One had reached 50 million members, with members driving half of Mobility and Delivery Gross Bookings. That can improve frequency and retention, but investors should still test the cost of membership benefits and incentives.
Autonomous vehicles add a separate layer. A partnership-based, capital-efficient AV strategy can expand the network without Uber owning every vehicle. But future AV value should depend on actual paid trips, utilization, insurance/liability economics and the share retained by Uber and its partners.
What matters next:
Gross Bookings growth versus revenue growth
Operating income and FCF as percentages of bookings
Insurance, incentives and driver/courier economics
Uber One retention and incremental profitability
Paid autonomous trips and economics per trip—not announcements alone
Framework verdict: Strong marketplace conversion; AV optionality remains probability-weighted.
Human version: the money passing through the app is not the money Uber keeps.
7. APPLOVIN: THE AI ADVERTISING STORY ALREADY PRODUCES CASH—TRANSPARENCY IS THE NEXT TEST
AppLovin's Q1 2026 results were financially powerful:
Revenue of $1.84 billion , up 59%
Net income of $1.21 billion
Adjusted EBITDA of $1.56 billion
Operating cash flow of approximately $1.3 billion
Free cash flow of approximately $1.3 billion
Unlike an AI company selling only a future vision, AppLovin's advertising technology is already producing revenue, profit and cash.
The analytical challenge is different: ad platforms are less transparent than order-book businesses. Investors need evidence that improved advertiser outcomes—not temporary pricing, customer mix or traffic-acquisition choices—drive the economics.
What matters next:
Revenue growth alongside advertiser retention and diversification
Incremental revenue converted into GAAP operating profit
Difference between adjusted EBITDA and GAAP earnings
Traffic-acquisition, platform and privacy/regulatory risks
Durability of FCF after taxes, working capital and capital returns
Framework verdict: Strong reported cash bridge; durability and transparency require continued testing.
Human version: an algorithm can be valuable without revealing every detail, but investors still need repeatable financial evidence that the advantage is durable.
THE 2026 EVIDENCE SCORECARD
These scores grade the completeness of the metric-to-cash evidence. They do not say whether a share is cheap or expensive.
Broadcom — 9/10: AI revenue already converts into substantial FCF
Uber — 8/10: bookings-to-revenue-to-FCF bridge is visible
GE Vernova — 8/10: backlog conversion and margins improving; normalize working capital and gains
AppLovin — 8/10: strong profit and cash; durability is harder to observe externally
Snowflake — 7/10: strong commercial metrics and positive FCF; GAAP loss and SBC remain material
Oracle — 6/10: extraordinary contracted demand; capex currently overwhelms operating cash
CoreWeave — 4/10: revenue growth is real; debt, interest and construction consume the economics
THE PRACTICAL TEST: FIVE NUMBERS TO WRITE DOWN BEFORE EVERY EARNINGS CALL
For any stock promoted using AI revenue, backlog, RPO, bookings or capacity, record these five figures before reading management commentary:
Conversion ratio: recognized revenue divided by the relevant operating metric over a sensible period
GAAP operating margin: after normal operating costs, before unusual investment gains
Reinvestment rate: capex plus working-capital needs relative to operating cash
Financing burden: interest and net debt relative to revenue and cash generation
Per-share result: normalized FCF divided by the diluted share count
Then write one sentence that can be proven wrong:
“If the metric is genuinely creating value, revenue conversion, normalized margins and free cash flow per share should improve by ______ within ______ quarters.”
If a thesis cannot be expressed with a measurable deadline, it may be a story rather than an analysis.
FINAL CONCLUSION
The hottest US-stock numbers of 2026 are not imaginary. AI revenue is growing. Cloud contracts are being signed. Power equipment is being reserved. Consumers are completing more trips. Enterprises are consuming more data.
But the framework reveals that these companies occupy very different economic positions.
Broadcom's AI number already reaches free cash flow. Uber's bookings pass through a visible take-rate and profit bridge. GE Vernova's backlog is converting with improving margins. Snowflake produces cash but must account for dilution. Oracle has extraordinary demand while current capex overwhelms cash generation. CoreWeave shows most clearly that backlog, EBITDA and equity cash can tell three different stories.
A huge number is not automatically a valuable number. Its value depends on how much reaches free cash flow per share, when it arrives, and what must be risked to produce it.
That is the discipline for 2026: count the contracts, bookings, users and gigawatts—but finish by counting the cash. 
Long
BlackRock's Earnings Just Changed the Investment NarrativeBlackRock delivered another outstanding quarter, proving once again why it remains the global leader in asset management
Assets under management reached a record $15.3 trillion, fueled by $192 billion in quarterly net inflows and strong demand across iShares ETFs, active strategies, private markets, and institutional mandates.. Revenue climbed 31% year over year to $7.08 billion, while adjusted EPS of $13.91 comfortably exceeded Wall Street expectations, highlighting the firm's ability to grow even at an unprecedented scale
💰 Higher Margins, Better Business Mix
The biggest takeaway wasn't just higher earnings it was improving profitability. BlackRock expanded its adjusted operating margin to 45.9%, driven by strong operating leverage, growing technology revenue, and increasing exposure to higher fee businesses like private credit, infrastructure, and Aladdin. As the firm's business mix shifts away from purely passive investing, investors should expect more resilient earnings and stronger long term margin expansion
🚀 Private Markets Become the Next Growth Engine
BlackRock is transforming beyond a traditional ETF giant. Recent acquisitions, including Global Infrastructure Partners, HPS Investment Partners, and Preqin, are accelerating its expansion into private markets, infrastructure financing, and alternative investments. These businesses not only generate higher fees but also position BlackRock to benefit from one of the fastest growing segments of global finance as institutional investors continue shifting capital into private assets.
🤖 Larry Fink Is Betting Big on AI
CEO Larry Fink remains highly optimistic, saying he is very bullish on the markets over the next 12 months . His confidence comes from the belief that artificial intelligence will drive a multi year productivity boom across nearly every industry.. Rather than worrying about an AI bubble, Fink believes the real challenge is building enough computing power, data centers, and electricity infrastructure to satisfy exploding demand
BlackRock is positioning itself to finance that transformation, while internally using AI to boost efficiency and expand margins without significantly increasing headcount
BlackRock continues to execute at an elite level. Record inflows, expanding margins, disciplined capital allocation, and growing exposure to private markets create multiple long term growth drivers beyond traditional asset management.
While market volatility and equity valuations remain key risks, the company's diversified platform, technology leadership, and exposure to the AI infrastructure boom leave BlackRock well positioned to continue compounding earnings and shareholder value for years to come.
Long
FSLR is trading near $185, sitting 0.9x weekly ATRFSLR is trading near $185, sitting 0.9x weekly ATR from its 200-week EMA. That distance places it inside the defined buy zone (≤1x ATR from the 200W EMA), well short of extended (≤4x). The 200-week EMA is up 31% over the last two years and still rising, with the 50-week EMA above it.
Gate 1, trend A rising 200W EMA with price pulled back to touch it, not through it, and the 50W holding above the 200W, is the structural definition of an intact long-term uptrend resting at support rather than breaking down. That's the first gate, and it's confirmed here.
Gate 2, momentum Confirm momentum is turning up from this level rather than still falling before treating this as a live entry. On a name this volatile a pullback to trend support is not the same as a base already forming. Wait for the weekly candle to show the reset resolving before sizing in.
Gate 3, risk Entry zone: near $185. Scale-out targets, scaled to this asset's own ATR: TP1 → $327 (+76%) TP2 → $468 (+152%) TP3 → $694 (+274%)
Volatility context: 14-day ATR is $11.44, average daily range $10.67, an expected day of roughly ±$11.44, around 6% of price. This is a genuine mover, which is both the source of the wide upside targets and the reason position size matters more here than on a slow name. A 1.5x ATR stop from entry is roughly $17.16 of room. No trailing stop until price reclaims and holds above the 50-week EMA, tightening risk before the trend has actually resumed just invites noise-driven stop-outs on a stock that swings this hard.
The seasonality overlay Kept in perspective, because this is a mild tailwind rather than the headline. Averaged over the last five years, FSLR has closed green in 7 of its 12 calendar months with a positive average monthly return of +2.65%. The strongest month has historically been May and the weakest June, both now behind us, so the seasonally worst stretch of the year has already passed. The structure is the reason this is on the chart. The calendar simply isn't working against it.
Build in stages rather than one entry. No leverage, and size it for the volatility. Assess Gate 1 first, then Gate 2, then size Gate 3 off current ATR, not a static stop distance.
Not financial advice. All commentary is for analytical purposes only. ConocoPhillips: Strong FundamentalsConocoPhillips: Strong Fundamentals and Favorable Energy Market Conditions
Ticker: NYSE
Price at the time of analysis (July 7, 2026): $103.58
Current price: $111.46
Target price: $117.80
Stop-loss: $96.40
Recommendation: Buy
Risk level: Medium
Investment Thesis
Rising seasonal demand for oil and natural gas, combined with ConocoPhillips’ strong fundamentals and the completion of major investment projects, makes COP shares attractive over both the short and long term.
The key factors supporting this investment idea are:
Rising demand and prices for oil and natural gas
The completion of major investment projects
Expected growth in free cash flow
A favorable technical setup
Company Overview
ConocoPhillips is one of the largest oil and gas producers in the United States. In addition to its core exploration and production operations, the company participates in several liquefied natural gas projects.
The company’s business is primarily concentrated in the United States, which accounts for approximately 80% of its revenue. Founded in 1875, ConocoPhillips is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
In our view, COP shares offer attractive upside potential over the next two months, supported by several fundamental and market-related catalysts.
Rising Demand and Prices for Oil and Natural Gas
The U.S. Department of Energy forecasts an 11.0% month-over-month increase in natural gas demand in July. Seasonal demand for natural gas in the United States typically peaks between late July and early August.
Forecasts also point to a significant slowdown in natural gas storage injections over the coming weeks. Stronger demand and slower inventory growth could support higher U.S. natural gas prices.
WTI crude oil prices have declined by 21.5% since the beginning of June, falling below $70 per barrel amid optimism surrounding negotiations between the United States and Iran, as well as expectations of an oversupplied oil market.
We believe this optimism may be excessive. Attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz are continuing, while disagreements over key issues remain unresolved. In addition, U.S. crude oil and petroleum product inventories have fallen to their lowest level since 2004.
A favorable technical setup, combined with the seasonal increase in summer oil demand, could also support a recovery in oil prices and a positive move in COP shares.
Completion of Major Investment Projects
The completion of the North Field East and North Field South LNG projects in Qatar, as well as the Port Arthur LNG project in the United States, could provide a meaningful boost to ConocoPhillips’ financial performance.
Together with the company’s cost-reduction program, these projects are expected by management to increase annual free cash flow by approximately $1 billion in each of 2026, 2027, and 2028.
In 2029, free cash flow could rise by an additional $4 billion year over year following the launch of the large-scale Willow project in Alaska.
The Willow project is expected to reach peak production of approximately 180,000 barrels per day and has estimated proven reserves of around 600 million barrels. It is considered a strategically important project for ConocoPhillips, with planned capital expenditures of approximately $7 billion.
Conclusion:
We maintain a Buy rating on ConocoPhillips shares.
Our target price of $117.80 represents approximately 14% upside from the price at the time of analysis. A stop-loss at $96.40 may help limit downside risk.
Seasonally stronger energy demand, low U.S. inventories, potential support for oil and natural gas prices, and expected free-cash-flow growth from major investment projects create a favorable risk-reward profile for COP share. 
Long
Long
Long
SPACE EXPLORATION TECHNOLOGIES [$SPCX] ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSISSpace Exploration Technologies appears to be approaching the final stages of a corrective ABC decline. Following the impulsive Wave A from the all-time high, price completed a three-wave Wave B rally before rolling over into Wave C. The current decline is unfolding as an ending diagonal—a terminal Elliott Wave pattern that typically reflects trend exhaustion rather than the start of a fresh impulsive decline.
Unlike established securities, however, SPCX has virtually no historical price data. The absence of higher-timeframe structure significantly reduces analytical confidence, as Elliott Wave analysis relies heavily on historical context to validate wave degrees and identify long-term market cycles. With only a limited trading history available, all wave counts should therefore be treated with greater caution than would normally be the case.
Even so, price is now testing an important confluence of support around the IPO level near $135, while the lower boundary of the ending diagonal converges with long-term trendline support. One final marginal low remains possible to complete Wave C, but the risk of downside continuation appears increasingly balanced by the potential for a meaningful reversal.
Ending diagonals often conclude with a brief capitulation before reversing sharply, with the entire pattern frequently retraced in relatively short order. A decisive breakout above the diagonal’s upper boundary would provide the first technical confirmation that the correction has ended and that a larger recovery phase is underway. Until then, the preferred outlook remains that the market is completing, rather than initiating, a bearish sequence.
Not financial advice. Like and follow for more Elliott Wave and macro crypto analysis.
Long
Short
Long
Short
Long
Long
Long 
Long
Long
Long
APPLOVIN: Is it too late to buy this gem?AppLovin is an American technology company founded in 2012 and listed on the stock market in 2021. Classified within the Information Technology sector of the S&P 500, under the Application Software industry, the company develops a software platform powered by artificial intelligence to optimize digital advertising and mobile application monetization.
Its proprietary AXON engine analyzes billions of signals to improve advertising campaign targeting and advertisers’ return on investment. Today, AppLovin is no longer limited to the mobile gaming market: its expertise is gradually being deployed in e-commerce and other segments of digital advertising, significantly expanding its total addressable market.
Its AXON software is clearly considered a world-class technology gem, and AppLovin has now become the king of AI-powered advertising. The group is delivering one of the fastest growth rates in the software sector, combined with strong cash generation and exceptionally high operating margins.
This combination explains why the market grants AppLovin a higher valuation than many traditional software companies. However, this premium valuation reflects high expectations regarding continued earnings growth and further expansion of its advertising platform.
Since its inclusion in the S&P 500, AppLovin has also become a closely followed company among institutional investors and is now one of the largest market capitalizations in the global software industry.
Originally, AppLovin operated in the video game industry as a mobile game publisher. In 2025, the company sold its entire historical mobile applications and gaming business to focus exclusively on AXON. And AXON is clearly delivering outstanding results, with exceptional profitability and still significant growth potential ahead.
Is it too late to invest in AppLovin shares? Is AppLovin’s AXON really without any serious competitors?
No, AppLovin’s AXON does have serious competitors, but the situation needs to be put into perspective: competition exists, yet very few players currently combine a comparable level of data, AI algorithms, advertising volume and continuous machine-learning feedback loops. This is precisely the core element of the AppLovin investment thesis.
The table below compares technology companies in the “Application Software” industry based on three criteria: market capitalization, traditional P/E ratio and forward P/E ratio. AppLovin ranks among the least expensive companies according to the forward P/E metric. Therefore, if expected earnings are achieved, AppLovin stock could still be considered attractively valued at current prices.
The chart below displays the weekly Japanese candlesticks of AppLovin’s stock.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
IBM's revenue miss exposes AI-driven software spending shiftIBM | 1D Technical Analysis — Jul 17, 2026
IBM issued a Q2 pre-announcement warning, with preliminary revenue of $17.2B coming in 1% above last year but missing the $17.9B consensus. CEO Krishna explained that customers redirected quarterly capex toward servers, storage, and memory to secure constrained AI infrastructure, directly crowding out mainframe purchases. Krishna also cited Anthropic's Claude Mythos launch as a factor, noting it briefly paused enterprise contract signings as customers reassessed cybersecurity spending priorities. The confession has fueled broader market concern that enterprises are cutting software budgets to fund AI infrastructure, a read-across that rattled software sector sentiment broadly.
IBM has been in a volatile, multi-month period, with a sharp June spike to 332, followed by an equally sharp reversal that has now brought the price down to the 205 area, a decline of nearly 35% from the high in under two months. Price is currently trading around 220, with EMA21 (265.71) above EMA78 (262.83), though both EMAs are now trending lower following the recent breakdown, and the bullish cross that formed at early June is being rapidly unwound.
The daily chart shows a textbook distribution top, a spike to 330, immediate rejection, a lower high near 295, and then a cascading breakdown through 260, 233, and 205 in rapid succession. Today's 3.72% bounce from the 205 low is a technical relief move, but price remains well below both EMAs and all prior support levels that now act as overhead resistance. RSI at 32.90 is approaching oversold territory, providing the conditions for a short-term bounce but not yet confirming a structural bottom.
Key levels to watch:
Resistance: 233 / 260 / 262.83 (EMA78) / 265.71 (EMA21) / 295
Support: 205 (recent low) / 195 / 185 (structural floor)
Bear case: Failure to reclaim 233 on the current bounce and a rollover back toward 205 would suggest the low has not been established. A close below 205 opens the path toward 195 and the 185 structural floor, with the enterprise software spending narrative providing no near-term fundamental relief.
Bull case: A hold above 205 and a recovery through 233 would signal that the worst of the selling is absorbed. Reclaiming EMA78 at 262 and EMA21 at 265 would be the minimum requirement to suggest a structural recovery is underway, likely requiring a positive catalyst around the full Q2 earnings release.
Bias is bearish — the distribution-top structure, a breakdown through multiple support levels, and the fundamental admission that AI infrastructure spending is directly cannibalizing IBM's core software business create a difficult setup. The 205 level is the line in the sand. Without a hold here, further downside toward 195–185 remains the path of least resistance.
Long
Long
