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META Tests Weekly Ichimoku Cloud at a Key Kumo TwistMETA is attempting to reverse its corrective weekly structure after a strong +5.07% candle, closing at $648.03.
Price has moved above the descending trendline, currently around $637.60 , but the bullish breakout is not fully confirmed because META remains inside the bearish Ichimoku cloud.
The circled Kumo twist is an important area to monitor. It shows that the cloud is losing thickness and that the previous bearish structure is weakening. However, a twist does not predict direction by itself—it represents a potential transition zone where price may cross the cloud more easily.
The current Ichimoku levels are:
- Tenkan-sen: $605.29
- Kijun-sen: $605.89
- Senkou Span A: $605.59
- Senkou Span B: $655.53
Bullish Scenario
A weekly close above $655.50 , followed by a breakout above the recent high at $664.24 , would confirm:
- A breakout from the Ichimoku cloud
- A validated break of the descending trendline
- A potential bullish regime change around the Kumo twist
The next upside targets would be $680–$700, followed by $720–$740.
Bearish Scenario
A move back below $637–$638 would weaken the trendline breakout.
Below $620, META would risk moving deeper into the cloud. The major support and invalidation zone is located around $605–$606, where the Tenkan-sen, Kijun-sen and Senkou Span A converge.
A weekly close below this area would invalidate the bullish reversal scenario and expose $580, followed by $550.
Conclusion
The Kumo twist is constructive, but META is still in a neutral transition phase. The decisive bullish signal would be a confirmed weekly close above the $655.50–$664.25 resistance zone.
Until then, this remains a promising breakout attempt rather than a fully confirmed trend reversal.
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Laurent - Private Investor
✅ DL INVEST | Community Leader
SMCI: The server king returns. Cisco opens a second doorSuper Micro Computer NASDAQ:SMCI again looks far more interesting from a fundamental standpoint than the chart alone might suggest. After a prolonged downtrend, the stock is attempting to form a reversal structure, and price is now around $40.10. The main support zone sits in the $29 to $33 range. That remains the key area buyers must defend. Above, the first serious resistance zone is around $54.73 to $58.05. A breakout there could open the door to $68.05 and then $80.73. The all-time high is much higher, near $122.90, so the long-term potential remains significant if Supermicro truly transitions from recovery into a new sustainable uptrend.
And this is where the technical picture starts to be reinforced by fundamentals that look much stronger than the chart alone would imply. The company closed FY2026 with revenue of $39.1 billion versus $22.0 billion a year earlier. Net income came in at $2.2 billion, with EPS of $3.26 versus $1.68 a year earlier. The fourth quarter was especially strong: revenue reached $11.1 billion, net income $1.18 billion, and gross margin recovered to 17.5% from 9.9% in the prior quarter. That margin recovery is precisely the trigger the technical picture has begun to price in.
But the main fundamental catalyst is not even in the already published results. In Q4, Supermicro received more than $60 billion in new orders, after which the company reported a record backlog entering FY2027. Important: this is the volume of new orders to be shipped in future quarters, not guaranteed revenue for the next quarter. Management expects $65 to $72 billion in revenue for FY2027, which shows the scale of expectations from AI infrastructure. That order flow is what creates the fundamental backdrop allowing the current $29 to $33 support zone to be viewed as accumulation rather than a continuation of the decline.
And here comes Cisco. In August, Cisco announced the expansion of its Secure AI Factory with NVIDIA through a partnership with Supermicro. Cisco's ecosystem is adding Supermicro's high-density liquid and air-cooled systems, including rack-scale solutions for NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72 and HGX Rubin NVL8 . Cisco plans to begin offering Supermicro compute solutions as part of this platform starting in October 2026. This gives Supermicro an additional channel to large enterprise and cloud customers, and that could be the driver that helps price break through the $54.73 to $58.05 resistance zone.
At the same time, a key question about the quality of growth remains. At the end of FY2026, Supermicro had $7.5 billion in cash but also $8.7 billion in bank debt and convertible bonds. So calling the company free of financial risk would be wrong. The main task now is to ensure the huge flow of AI orders converts not only into revenue but also into sustainable margin and cash flow. Margin, cash flow, and the ability to scale production become the next key checkpoints, and they will determine whether the technical reversal is confirmed fundamentally.
Historical issues with auditing and corporate control should also not be presented as a current crisis. In 2024, EY left the company, after which Supermicro appointed BDO and conducted an independent review. The special committee found no grounds for a restatement of financial statements. Later, the company also conducted a separate review related to former employees and alleged export control violations. The review found no evidence that current management knew of the alleged scheme or that the company's financial statements were unreliable because of it. That backdrop removed part of the reputational pressure that weighed on the stock in 2024 and 2025, allowing the technical picture to begin forming a reversal structure.
MACD is also gradually changing character: the histogram and indicator lines show improving momentum after prolonged seller pressure. But while price remains below key resistance, it is premature to speak of a fully confirmed long-term reversal.
The main conflict for SMCI right now is simple: demand for AI infrastructure is huge, $60+ billion in new orders have already been received, Cisco is adding Supermicro to its AI infrastructure ecosystem, but the market wants to see how profitably the company can execute that volume.
If price can establish itself above resistance, the fundamental story gets additional confirmation from the chart. If the $29 to $33 support is lost, the entire current reversal structure will come under serious pressure.
This publication is for analytical purposes only and does not constitute individual investment advice. Technical levels are scenarios, not guarantees of price movement. 
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WEBULL: The Most Underrated Growth Engine in the Cycle.🚀💡 Executive Summary
Webull ( NASDAQ:BULL ) is quietly completing a major structural bottoming pattern while operating as one of the fastest-growing fintech platforms in global retail markets. Currently sitting at ~$9.22, the stock is heavily discounted relative to its expanding top-line revenue, accelerating profitability, and institutional accumulation. With major regulatory catalysts (PDT rule removal), global M&A expansion, and a structural chart fractal mirroring Robinhood’s ( NASDAQ:HOOD ) multi-hundred-day accumulation base, consistent accumulation (dollar-cost averaging through the base) represents the highest-conviction strategy to play NASDAQ:BULL for asymmetric risk-to-reward targeting $100+ over a 2–5 year horizon.
📈 Technical Breakdown: The Technical & Structural Fractal Horizon
* 🧱 Macro Bottom Absorption: Price action found a major structural floor around the $4.50–$5.00 zone, printing a clear high-timeframe SHM Buy Signal during the spring recovery.
* 📐 The 500+ Day Base Fractal ( NASDAQ:HOOD Comparison): NASDAQ:BULL 's current price structure closely mirrors Robinhood’s ( NASDAQ:HOOD ) initial post-listing markdown and subsequent ~530-day base channel ($7–$12). NASDAQ:HOOD spent over 18 months consolidating as smart money absorbed supply before triggering its multi-wave expansion toward $100B+. NASDAQ:BULL is currently inside this exact coiling window, building higher lows pressing against resistance near $9.50–$10.00.
* ⚡ Momentum Matrix Confluence: The SHM v8.0, CIMA MA, SHM RSI, and DWO indicators are aligning across trend, speed, and order flow to confirm institutional sell-side exhaustion:
* SHM v8.0 & CIMA MA (Trend Alignment): Price holds above the 63 WMA and 510 WMA baseline, with the CIMA MA (Cumulative Institutional Moving Average) stacking as dynamic support beneath price, confirming structural macro trend realignment.
* SHM RSI (Momentum Gate): The locked 24h RSI velocity gate (rsi_len = 6) is building steady momentum in the active band without hitting overbought exhaustion.
* DWO (Order Flow Absorption): Displays continuous bullish divergence and delta volume absorption, showing real buyers absorbing sell orders at the base.
* 🎯 Overhead Targets: A clean breakout past $10.00 opens the run toward the 52-week high of $16.04, with zero structural resistance above once macro blue-sky discovery begins.
💚 Fundamental & Institutional Growth Triggers (The Good)
* 📊 Q2 Earnings & Profitability Shift: Webull reported a 51% YoY revenue jump to $198.8M (beating estimates of $187.2M). Diluted GAAP EPS swung to a positive $0.04, while Adjusted Operating Profit per share reached $0.12 (surpassing $0.01 consensus) on $62.6M in adjusted operating profit (+168% YoY).
* 🔓 Regulatory Tailwinds (PDT Rule Elimination): The official SEC/FINRA elimination of the Pattern Day Trader (PDT) $25,000 minimum equity requirement on June 4, 2026, served as a primary growth catalyst. Management cited this as a "defining event" that drove record Daily Average Revenue Trades (DARTs) of 1.6M and lifted options contract volume 68% YoY to 213M contracts.
* 🌏 Aggressive Global M&A & Geographic Reach: Webull completed its acquisition of Thailand's Pi Securities (~99.36% stake), targeting THB 200B in combined AUM. Alongside recent active trading launches in Spain, Argentina, and Colombia, Webull’s operational footprint has expanded to 18 active markets and 35 licensed jurisdictions.
* 🤖 Tech Engagement (Vega AI Adoption): Active users on Webull’s native Vega AI platform reached 480,000 (adding 160,000 users in Q2 alone), deepening user retention and product engagement across retail trading tools.
* 🏛️ Institutional Accumulation: Smart money is aggressively building positions, highlighted by BlackRock adding 6.77M shares (+42.8%) and Citigroup increasing holdings by over 23,000% in Q2 filings.
⚠️ Headwinds, Risks & Counter-Headlines (The Bad & Market Rumors)
* 📜 Pre-Arranged Insider Realizations: Recent SEC Form 4 and Rule 144 filings indicate executive share sales, including pre-scheduled Rule 10b5-1 plan sales by President Anthony Denier. While executed under routine pre-arranged plans adopted earlier in May, insider supply remains a near-term absorbable friction at base resistance.
* 🔍 Payment for Order Flow (PFOF) Scrutiny: Regulatory proposals surrounding PFOF execution models remain an ongoing risk, as potential SEC mandates could compress transaction-based rebate margins.
* ⚔️ Intense Retail Competition: Webull faces aggressive counter-expansion from Robinhood ( NASDAQ:HOOD ), Interactive Brokers, and legacy giants (Fidelity, Schwab) who continue to slash trading costs and roll out competing round-the-clock features.
* 📉 Retail Trading Cyclicality: Platform top-line performance remains tied to retail volume liquidity cycles. Extended market chop or elevated interest rates could cool retail trading activity.
💎 The Valuation Path & Fractal Timeline ($100+)
* 🏷️ Current Market Cap: ~$4.88B – $5.0B at ~$9.22 per share.
* 🎯 Target Market Cap at $100/share: ~$52B – $53B (assuming current ~526M share count).
* ⏳ 3-Phase Fractal Lifecycle & Accumulation Plan:
1. Phase 1: Base Accumulation (~500–550 Days): Currently coiling beneath $10.00 base resistance. Because micro-timing exact breakout candles inside a 1.5-year channel is inefficient, consistent, systematic accumulation across the $7.50–$9.20 zone allows position-building at deep value before momentum spikes.
2. Phase 2: Breakout & Multiple Expansion (12–24 Mos): Re-rating toward $15B–$20B valuation ($28–$40/share) upon breaking $10.00 and clearing the $16.04 high.
3. Phase 3: Macro Cycle Peak (2–5 Yrs): Multiple expansion toward $50B+ as global AUM monetization (Pi Securities) and PDT volume velocity mature, aligning NASDAQ:BULL with NASDAQ:HOOD 's macro trajectory.
🏁 Final Setup & Directional Targets
Webull ( NASDAQ:BULL ) sits at the confluence of fundamental revenue expansion (51\% YoY growth), PDT regulatory tailwinds, international M&A, and a high-probability chart fractal mirroring NASDAQ:HOOD ’s historic ~530-day bottoming structure. Rather than chasing parabolic breakout candles, steady, continuous accumulation throughout the base structural support zone is the optimal way to play $BULL.
Directional Targets:
* ⏳ Near-Term (1–3 Months): Coiling under $9.50–$10.00 base resistance. A decisive daily close above $10.00 triggers upside expansion targeting the $16.04 52-week high sweep.
* 🚀 Macro Horizon (2–5 Years): Following the ~500-day base breakout phase, international expansion and trading velocity pave the path toward a $50B+ market cap, carrying price into the $100.00+ macro target zone.
📋 Strategic Setup
Parameter Execution Zone
Current Price 💵 ~$9.22
Playbook / Strategy 🧠 Systematic Accumulation (DCA) across the multi-month base
Accumulation Zone 🛒 $7.50 – $9.20 (Layering buys into SHM Baseline & CIMA MA support)
Mid-Term Target 1 🎯 $16.04 (52-Week High Sweep)
Macro Target (2-5 Yrs) 🌕 $100.00+ (Triple-Digit Expansion / $50B Market Cap)
⚠️ Disclaimer: For educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading equities involves significant capital risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct independent research before making investment decisions. 
Long
ADBE – Potential Long-Term Trend Reversal - Golden Cross SetupAdobe has been in a prolonged downtrend for approximately 2.5 years, with price consistently trading below the MA50.
However, the structure may now be changing. A potentially important reversal pattern is developing, with several possible bullish scenarios ahead.
* Two chart patterns may be forming: a Golden Cross and a Bowl pattern.
* The MA50 is now approaching the MA200, making this a particularly interesting point in the long-term structure.
. Before the current correction, ADBE experienced a strong upside move that broke above the MA200 for approximately 11 trading sessions but ultimately failed to hold the breakout and pulled back.
. That breakout was still significant because it created a new high, H2, above the previous high, H1.
. The key question now is whether the recent low, L2, can remain above the previous low, L1 — potentially creating a higher low — or whether ADBE will continue lower?
. Friday's green candle closed at $252.23, with volume of approximately 10.8M. Could this be the low that establishes L2?
. In my view, L2 is currently in a relatively strong position because it remains significantly above L1.
* Fibonacci analysis of the L1 → H2 move also supports this idea. L2 is currently located within the retracement zone of that move, just below the 0.5 Fibonacci level.
. Based on this structure, I believe L2 could be confirmed relatively soon if price continues to hold this area.
* Volume also provides another interesting signal. Based on my own chart review, average daily volume during 2026 appears to be approximately 4M shares, roughly twice the average daily volume seen during 2024–2025.
These volume figures are approximate and based on my own chart observation.
*The potential Bowl pattern provides several upside scenarios. If the recovery continues, Target 2 at $362.71 would represent the minimum major objective of this pattern.
If the Bowl eventually develops into a Cup and Handle, the longer-term Target 4 at $506.92 could become the ultimate target for this setup.
. Target 1 ($331.50) and Target 2 ($362.71) are based primarily on key support/resistance levels and the Bowl structure.
. Target 3 ($421.48) and Target 4 ($506.92) are based on key support/resistance levels combined with Fibonacci Extension projections.
* Entry: $294.54
For a more conservative entry, I would prefer to see price return to H2 ($294.53) and successfully retest that level.
This would provide additional confirmation that the current structure is developing into a bullish reversal rather than simply another temporary rebound.
* Stop-loss: $262.81 (-10.77%)
* Targets:
Target 1: $331.50
Target 2: $362.71
Target 3: $421.48
Target 4: $506.92
Risk/Reward: 2.15
ADBE could become very interesting in the coming months, with multiple potential entry opportunities depending on how the price structure develops.
*** The reason I am publishing this setup now is not simply because ADBE has fallen significantly.
The most important reason is that a Golden Cross may be approaching in the near future.
If the MA50 crosses above the MA200 while price continues to build a higher-low structure, this could mark an important transition from a long-term downtrend toward a new bullish phase.
IMO, amateur trader.
Good luck! 
Long
RIOT: Breakout or breakdown next?RIOT has been on a sideways journey for the past couple of months. The patterns look very similar to what happened between October of last year to March of this year. It created slight lower lows back then, almost a descending triangle pattern, but instead of breaking down, the price had a breakout. If we are seeing the same or similar pattern right now, then this sideways action is most likely not over yet.
Looking at daily MACD, the price is struggling to gain momentum. Histogram is creating higher highs while price is creating lower highs. The MACD line is still not very strong above 0. If it breaks down again, we should see the correction to continue. Question would be if it will hold support and create a launching pad for price breakout like the last time or if a lot more pain in the future of the bag holders.
EW perspective, the correction could be over already. There is a clear 5 waves move up and that move is being corrected at the moment. If the minute degree wave 2 is really over, then we should see a very strong wave 3 of multiple magnitude. However, there is a chance that a more complex correction is still underway and the latest 5 waves move up is in the mix of multiple leg wxy pattern. If that is the case, then we should see a strong move down i the upcoming weeks, but price should get support at $15-$14 range.
Since direction is not yet clear, it is better to wait and see how things unfold. I may add a position if we see price move above $23 rather quickly. However, a stop loss will be a must to avoid getting caught in a massive meltdown. If price does break below $20 again, then I will look for support in the lower high-volume area to start building positions. 
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