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Rocketlab - The Stock Came Back to Earth, Ready to Re-LaunchNASDAQ:RKLB
Rocket Lab - Rising Wedge Breakdown, 61.8% Retracement, Falling Wedge Building. One Level Decides The Entry.
Rocket Lab deserves every bit of attention it is getting. Q1 2026 revenue came in at $200.3 million, up 63% year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA losses narrowing dramatically and a backlog that keeps expanding. The Neutron rocket remains on track for its first launch in late 2026, which would transform the company from a small-payload specialist into a genuine competitor for medium-lift missions. Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, and TD Cowen have all raised price targets this year, with a consensus analyst target of $111 implying approximately 78% upside from current levels. The Iridium acquisition announced in June adds recurring satellite revenue to what was already a structurally compelling growth story. This is not hype, the fundamentals are catching up to the narrative.
The Setup
After an enormous rally from 2024 that unfolded within a rising wedge, the pattern played out exactly as the textbook suggests, price broke down and retraced 61.8% of the full wedge height, one of the most significant Fibonacci levels in technical analysis. That correction carved out a falling wedge, which, in contrast to the rising wedge that preceded it, typically resolves to the upside.
We believe the current bounce could be the final one within the falling wedge, given the confluence with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the white horizontal support/resistance level that has been respected multiple times historically. If macro pressure forces one more leg lower, the low $50s represents the likely final bounce zone, a confluence of that same white support and the 200-day EMA on the 3-day timeframe.
Our Entry Signal
We will not initiate a position before confirmation. A weekly close above the falling wedge resistance is our trigger, not before.
Levels to Watch
Entry trigger - weekly close above falling wedge resistance
Key support - white horizontal level, respected multiple times
Macro support - low $50s confluence with 200-day EMA on 3D timeframe
Keep posted for updates. 
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APP | Weekly Structure | Buy Zone Holding Above 0.618 FibThesis:
APP has now completed a clear three-wave ABC correction into my buy zone, with price reacting right around the 0.618 Fib at $291. For me, this is exactly the type of setup worth watching closely. As long as support continues to hold in this area, I believe the stock is building a base for the next move higher. The next major step would be a reclaim of the 50-week MA around $490.
Context
- Weekly timeframe
- APP has gone through a major correction in 2026 after a very strong prior cycle
- Price is now trading inside my buy zone after reaching the 0.618 Fib retracement around $291
- Just below this area, the 200-week MA sits around $238
- I started building my position at the end of August around $309 and I am accumulating through DCA
- My current average is approximately $320
- Fundamentally, I still view APP as a high-quality company despite the current overhang from the SEC investigation and short seller claims
What I see
- The correction from the highs looks like a clean ABC structure
- Wave C has now reached the 0.618 Fib, which is one of the most important retracement levels I look for
- Price is attempting to stabilize in this region rather than continuing to break down impulsively
- That is constructive and fits the idea of accumulation rather than panic
- A consolidation between the 0.618 Fib and the 0.5 Fib would be a healthy development
- The 50-week MA remains overhead resistance and is the next major level to reclaim
- If price can eventually break above that level and hold it as support, the chart would become much more constructive again
What matters now
- The 0.618 Fib around $291 is the key support level
- The 200-week MA around $238 is the deeper structural support below
- I want to see APP continue holding this buy zone without losing it decisively
- A period of sideways consolidation here would be a good sign
- The next important upside trigger is the 50-week MA around $490
- If that level is reclaimed and flipped to support, I would consider the Bull Case active again
Buy / Accumulation zone
- My buy zone is centered around the 0.618 Fib at $291
- I began accumulating at the end of August with a first buy around $309
- My current average is approximately $320
- I am using DCA rather than trying to time a perfect bottom
- This is the kind of stock I prefer at this stage of the broader market cycle: a quality name that has already corrected heavily
- I am not interested in chasing broad market strength, but I am interested in building positions in names that have already taken their pain
Targets
- Key support: approximately $291
- Deeper structural support: approximately $238
- First important recovery level: approximately $377
- Bull Case trigger: reclaim of the 50-week MA around $490
- Higher technical target: approximately $701
- 1.618 Fib extension: approximately $1,413
Portfolio note
APP fits well with how I want to position at this stage of the cycle.
Rather than adding aggressively to stocks moving perfectly in sync with the index, I prefer looking for high-quality businesses that have already gone through a substantial correction and are now entering technically interesting support areas.
That is exactly what APP is doing here.
The company is still growing strongly, margins remain exceptional, and the stock is now trading far below the highs while sitting directly in my buy zone.
For me, the job right now is simple: respect the support around the 0.618 Fib, continue accumulating through DCA, and watch whether the stock can eventually reclaim the 50-week MA.
If it does, I think the chart will start looking very different again. 
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Can SpaceX Monopolize Space and AI Computing?Macroeconomics and Economic Realities
SpaceX targets an astonishing $100 billion annualized revenue run rate by December 2026. Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen frames that as a forward-looking exit run-rate, not recognized full-year revenue. He also ties it to fully integrating the recently acquired AI startup Cursor. Second-quarter revenue reached $7.8 billion, up 92 percent year over year. That pace annualizes to roughly $31 billion today. Massive new AI compute leasing deals drive this rapid financial expansion. The company recently signed a $1.11 billion monthly compute contract beginning in December. That agreement adds over $13 billion in annualized revenue. However, Johnsen describes almost all hosting deals as 90-day commitments with 90-day exit provisions. These amount to roughly six-month commitments rather than guaranteed multi-year backlog. The company still lost $541 million last quarter, narrowing from $1 billion a year earlier. Investors closely monitor whether subscription compute revenues can sustain current valuation growth.
Geopolitics and Geostrategy
Satellite constellations now serve as vital assets in modern international defense. Starlink provides sovereign nations with resilient communication infrastructure during military conflicts. Consequently, Western governments view SpaceX as an indispensable national security partner. The U.S. Department of Defense relies on specialized Starshield satellite arrays. Meanwhile, launch reliance on foreign nations has vanished across North America. Sovereign access to low Earth orbit strengthens Western geopolitical posture. However, concentrated reliance on a single private contractor creates strategic geopolitical tensions.
High-Tech Industry Trends
The high-tech landscape is witnessing a convergence of space launch and artificial intelligence. AI developers urgently require massive computational capacity and reliable power sources. SpaceX actively leases access to high-density GPU clusters at dedicated facilities. Anthropic pays $1.25 billion monthly for the majority of capacity at Colossus 1 in Memphis. That facility houses roughly 220,000 Nvidia processors across 300 megawatts, under contract through May 2029. Google pays $920 million monthly from October 2026 through June 2029. Those two deals alone generate about $2.17 billion monthly, a $26 billion annualized run rate. All three contracts together lift monthly external compute revenue toward $3.28 billion. Concurrently, direct-to-device Starlink capabilities threaten legacy telecom operators worldwide. Next-generation direct-to-cell satellites deploy next year, targeting commercial 5G-grade service by early 2028. This dual disruption across telecom and cloud compute reshapes global tech trends.
Technology, Science, and Pharmaceuticals
Reusable orbital rockets drastically reduce the cost of conducting scientific research in microgravity. Microgravity enables perfect protein crystal growth impossible under Earth’s gravitational pull. Pharmaceutical firms leverage Dragon missions to formulate advanced therapeutic drugs and biopharmaceuticals. Furthermore, the massive Starship launch vehicle carries next-generation Starlink V3 satellites into orbit. That mission marks Starship’s first deployment flight generating direct revenue. The upcoming Starship Flight 14 test flight targets late September 2026. This launch system promises unprecedented payload capacity for deep-space science and commercial payloads.
Business Models and Leadership
Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk built a vertically integrated commercial enterprise. SpaceX operates as a launch provider, satellite internet operator, and compute landlord. Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen successfully monetized excess computing infrastructure through flexible enterprise contracts. Vertical integration allows SpaceX to build rockets, engines, and satellites in-house. This strategy drastically lowers operating costs while maintaining high gross margins. Capturing market share across telecom and cloud services accelerates total revenue diversification.
Company Culture and Cybersecurity
SpaceX maintains a culture centered on rapid hardware iteration and engineering speed. Fail-fast testing methodologies accelerate technological breakthroughs across all engineering departments. Furthermore, space-based communication networks demand impenetrable hardware and software cybersecurity protocols. Engine-level encryption and secure laser inter-satellite links protect user data against state-sponsored cyberattacks. Orbital communications must resist electronic jamming during geopolitical crises. Enterprise clients prioritize this high level of cyber resilience when selecting satellite networks.
Patent Analysis and Future Outlook
Patent filings reveal extensive intellectual property covering reusable thermal shielding and propulsion systems. Proprietary Raptor engine architecture and staging mechanisms create massive technical barriers for competitors. Advanced phased-array antenna patents protect Starlink hardware from low-cost knockoffs. Will SpaceX successfully execute its dual expansion into orbital launch and global AI compute? The company possesses unmatched technical velocity and strong market momentum. SpaceX stands poised to dominate high-tech infrastructure on Earth and in orbit. 
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