Apple Finally Folded. But Is the New iPhone Enough for Traders?Apple events have developed a familiar rhythm in recent years: faster chip, better camera, longer battery life, barely noticeable tweaks here and there. But not the latest event.
At its “Surprise and Shine” product presentation, streamed live on YouTube , Apple NASDAQ:AAPL unveiled the iPhone Duo (who else got thrown off by the name, thinking it’s two separate things?), its first foldable smartphone and the biggest change to the iPhone's physical design since Steve Jobs introduced the OG.
The $1,999 device folds out from a conventional 5.4-inch screen into a 7.6-inch display, runs Apple's new A20 Pro chip and supports two apps side by side.
Alongside it came the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, upgraded Watches, new AirPods and a much more prominent role for Apple's revamped Siri AI.
That’s all fine and dandy for consumers but can any of it move the needle for a company already worth trillions? Apple is the second-biggest company in the world , right after Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA .
💰 A $2,000 iPhone Changes the Math
The Duo ( the “Ultra” rumor was way off ) plays a key role because Apple doesn't necessarily need to sell hundreds of millions of them.
At $1,999, Apple has created an entirely new tier above its conventional premium smartphones. The iPhone 18 Pro now starts at $1,199 and the Pro Max at $1,299, both $100 higher than their predecessors.
Revenue can grow in two main ways: sell more products or make more money from each one. With global smartphone growth relatively mature, Apple increasingly has an incentive to lean on the second lever.
📊 The Duo Doesn't Need to Beat the iPhone
Foldables still account for less than 5% of global smartphone sales, meaning Apple isn't entering an enormous established market. It's betting that its arrival can make the category considerably bigger.
Bloomberg Intelligence estimates Apple could sell around 14 million Duo units during its first 12 months. At $1,999 each, that could translate into roughly $28 billion in revenue before considering storage upgrades, accessories or additional services.
For perspective, that's nowhere near replacing the traditional iPhone business that brings around $50 billion every quarter .
If the Duo attracts Apple's highest-spending customers, encourages upgrades and pulls users deeper into services, it could become financially meaningful without ever becoming the company's highest-volume phone.
That's something traders should watch carefully once preorder and delivery data begin arriving.
🤖 Then There's the AI Question
Hardware wasn't Apple's only problem entering this event. The company has spent much of the AI boom watching Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA , Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT , Alphabet NASDAQ:GOOGL and others capture investors' imagination (and cash) while questions grew around Apple's own strategy.
New CEO John Ternus tried to answer that by describing the iPhone as an "intelligent personal hub." Siri AI can use personal context across messages, emails and photos, understand what's happening onscreen and perform actions across Apple and third-party apps.
Apple is also leaning heavily into privacy, processing AI on-device where possible and using its Private Cloud Compute infrastructure when more horsepower is required. That's a very Apple approach to AI.
📉 So Why Did Apple Shares Fall?
After all that, Apple shares finished Wednesday down about 0.3% at $315.34.
Apple had already rallied about 15% since late June (16% year to date) heading into the event, while excitement around the foldable phone had been building for months.
The stock also entered the launch trading at roughly 33 times expected earnings, versus a 10-year average around 23 times.
Here’s a nice market lesson: A good announcement and a good trade aren't always the same thing.
Markets don't reward companies simply for delivering good news. They reward them for delivering something better than what investors have already priced in. And the Duo was hardly a secret by Wednesday morning.
📰 The Classic Sell-the-News Problem
Apple launch days are actually a nice example of this phenomenon.
Bank of America research found that Apple has often shown a muted sell-the-news reaction immediately after iPhone launches, only to perform better over the following weeks.
Since the original iPhone launched in 2007, Apple shares have risen over the subsequent 60 days after 17 different iPhone reveal events. That's not a trading signal by itself (as always, DYOR). History doesn't owe anyone an encore.
But it highlights the difference between an event catalyst and the fundamental information that follows it. For what it’s worth, Thursday trading is showing Apple shares are ticking higher by nearly 2%, so there's that.
👀 Watch Sales, Margins and Siri
From here on, three things probably matter more than another spec comparison.
First, Duo demand. Does a meaningful number of consumers actually pay $1,999 for a folding iPhone?
Second, margins. Apple is raising prices while memory and other component costs remain elevated . Higher average selling prices are great only if they protect or expand profitability.
Third, AI adoption. Siri AI needs to become something customers actually use, rather than another feature occupying a few minutes of keynote time.
Those answers will emerge through preorder demand, delivery times, supply-chain estimates and ultimately Apple's earnings. The fourth-quarter earnings season is about a month away, so keep an eye on the Earnings Calendar .
🍎 Off to you : Excited about Apple’s next chapter under the new chief exec? Share your thoughts in the comments!
Google : Testing 200 EMA & Trendline ConfluenceAlphabet (GOOG 1D): Testing 200 EMA & Trendline Confluence – Time for Early Longs? 🌐🚀
🧠 Fundamental Overview (Q2 2026 & Outlook):
Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG / GOOGL) continues to show exceptional operational growth, anchored by the massive scaling of its cloud and artificial intelligence infrastructure:
* Headline Earnings (Q2 2026): Revenue climbed +24% YoY to $119.80 Billion, topping consensus estimates ($116.93B). GAAP diluted EPS printed at $9.11 (boosted by unrealized equity valuation gains), while operational non-GAAP EPS was solid at ~$2.85.
* Cloud & AI Acceleration: Google Cloud surged +82% YoY to $24.77 Billion, with segment operating income tripling to $8.8 Billion and backlog topping $514 Billion.
* CapEx Scrutiny: Full-year 2026 CapEx guidance was raised to $195B–$205B ($44.9B deployed in Q2 alone), as aggressive server and data center commitments continue to weigh on short-term free cash flow.
* Next Earnings Date (Q3 2026): Tentatively scheduled for Wednesday, October 28, 2026 (after market close), with consensus modeling an EPS of ~$2.99.
📊 Technical Breakdown (1D Timeframe):
Zooming into the daily chart, price action is currently sitting right inside a high-interest confluence pocket:
1️⃣ Trendline B & C Confluence with 200 EMA: The price is bouncing directly off the rising 200-day EMA ($325.01 USD) . This dynamic baseline has proven to be an institutional line in the sand for Google, holding strong previously on March 30 and July 24. Right here, we also observe a potential false breakdown of Trendline B with price finding support along Trendline C .
2️⃣ Fibonacci "Golden" Accumulation Zone: Measuring the major expansion swing from the $271.54 low up to the $405.28 peak, the price area between $322.63 (61.8% Fib) and $338.41 (50% Fib) marks a textbook accumulation zone. Current prices around $328 sit squarely within this high-probability demand territory.
3️⃣ Oscillators & Momentum Dynamics: Both MACD and RSI (sitting at 38.58) continue to trade in a subdued, corrective posture, compressing without violent swings in either direction. Crucially, neither oscillator is flashing bearish divergence on this bottoming structure, meaning selling pressure is running out of steam rather than accelerating.
4️⃣ Volume Structure: Trading volume has remained low (5.15M–5.55M), which has been a consistent theme across technical inflection points for GOOG this year. While lack of volume doesn't immediately validate an explosive reversal, it indicates an exhaustion of active selling supply.
🎯 Trading Thesis & Execution Plan:
The current structure offers an attractive risk-to-reward setup for early long positions, backed by a technical rebound across Trendlines B and C, the 61.8% Fibonacci zone, and the 200-day EMA.
* Target 1 (TP1): $397 – $405 USD (Confluence of the 61.8% Fibonacci extension and retest of the recent macro highs).
* Target 2 (TP2): $448 USD (Full measured Wave 5 impulse extension).
* Invalidation / Stop Loss: A decisive daily close below the 200 EMA and the Trendline B/C cluster around $320 USD completely invalidates the long thesis, suggesting a deeper structural correction.
Are you bidding the 200 EMA bounce on Google here, or waiting for a breakout above Trendline A? Share your views below! 👇
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*⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is strictly for educational purposes and intended solely to intellectually enrich our trading community. It does NOT constitute financial or investment advice. Always perform your own research and manage your risk strictly.* 
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9/10/26 - $zvia - Another cheap option9/10/26 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:ZVIA
Another cheap option
- i like the can rebrand (skinny can + good visual)
- problem is i can't see myself drinking it regularly. i've tried it on multiple occasions and perhaps i'm just too far indoctrinated by the big-cola HFCS or mexican cola mafia
- nevertheless, this is a large net cash co (on first look), doesn't burn, seems to be in the right zipcode of low sugar, no fake heart-attack-chemical sugar (it's stevia-deriv)
- think given the SG&A, it's hard for co to stand alone ex some flavor breakthru and it's best option is a take out tbh
- at $1.25... hard to see much downside, and upside is probably a 2x on a takeout. fair value in my estimation is something as simple as:
- $160M in sales, $80M in GP and $80M in SG&A looks like $80M in sales to an acq (strip out bad channels, re-align, possibly), $40M in GP and $20M in SG&A or $20M in profit. take out another $5-10M for restructure + tax and you're looking at $10M run rate cash business. put a 15% cash hurdle on it and no growth (which you'd not buy it if you didn't assume growth) and you're at 10/.15 = $70M equity which compared to the $50M (round numbers here) is about 40% upside or $1.75... that's probably base case fair value today all else equal. so to buy it you'd need to pay minimally $2 probably $2.5+ (esp given the size)
- similar to NASDAQ:GRAB logic, it's a name that can sit as a 50 bps or 1% position and i don't need to babysit it much. better than cash. interesting spot to sit while i do more work.
- flagging for the patient special situation people.
- lmk if you've tried the product or have a view on the stock or above thesis, anon, k?
V 
Long
ANET: news flow leaning bullish — the net read
ANET did not get one story today, it got several, and they do not all point the same way. Weighed against each other — new against old, and tracking which ones have already faded:
+ 3 Stocks Retail Investors Are Watching After Google’s Finland AI Data Center Push - simplywall.st
+ Nvidia plans major expansion of data centre capacity in Australia to meet AI demand - KSL.com (fading)
+ Salix, IA city leaders discuss data center ordinance, future conversations with Google - KTIV (fading)
20 stories were weighed in this window; the 3 carrying the most weight are listed.
Net read: +++ leaning bullish — top of our scale.
What this is: a measure of which way the *news* is leaning right now — not a promise about price. A read being right and a read still being worth taking are two different things: once price has travelled a long way from where the read was published, it is stretched, and a lean that is stretched is a no-chase rather than an invitation.
Weight is not fixed either. A fresh headline lands, the balance tips, and the net read can flip inside an hour — that shift is the part worth watching, not the first print.
I will post an update under this idea once the market has had time to speak, either way.
(Informational only — not financial advice, not a signal.) 
Long
AMD: news flow leaning bullish — the net read
AMD did not get one story today, it got several, and they do not all point the same way. Weighed against each other — new against old, and tracking which ones have already faded:
+ AMD-Backed Korean AI Startup Upstage Considers Pre-IPO Round - bloomberg.com
+ AMD Helios Ships 50,000 MI450 GPUs to Oracle - shattered.io (fading)
+ Bank of America Spots a Major Semiconductor. Micron and AMD Are Big Winners - TradingView (fading)
56 stories were weighed in this window; the 3 carrying the most weight are listed.
Net read: +++ leaning bullish — top of our scale.
What this is: a measure of which way the *news* is leaning right now — not a promise about price. A read being right and a read still being worth taking are two different things: once price has travelled a long way from where the read was published, it is stretched, and a lean that is stretched is a no-chase rather than an invitation.
Weight is not fixed either. A fresh headline lands, the balance tips, and the net read can flip inside an hour — that shift is the part worth watching, not the first print.
I will post an update under this idea once the market has had time to speak, either way.
(Informational only — not financial advice, not a signal.) 
Long
TSM: news flow leaning bullish — the net read
TSM did not get one story today, it got several, and they do not all point the same way. Weighed against each other — new against old, and tracking which ones have already faded:
+++ TSMC Revenue Rises 53% as AI Chip Demand Outstrips Supply - Bloomberg.com
+++ TSMC's 53% Surge Caps a Blowout Month for the AI Server Chain - Moomoo
+++ TSMC August revenue jumps 53% as strong AI demand persists - Investing.com
23 stories were weighed in this window; the 3 carrying the most weight are listed.
Net read: +++ leaning bullish — top of our scale.
What this is: a measure of which way the *news* is leaning right now — not a promise about price. A read being right and a read still being worth taking are two different things: once price has travelled a long way from where the read was published, it is stretched, and a lean that is stretched is a no-chase rather than an invitation.
Weight is not fixed either. A fresh headline lands, the balance tips, and the net read can flip inside an hour — that shift is the part worth watching, not the first print.
I will post an update under this idea once the market has had time to speak, either way.
(Informational only — not financial advice, not a signal.) 
Long
Short
MU: news flow leaning bullish — the net read
MU did not get one story today, it got several, and they do not all point the same way. Weighed against each other — new against old, and tracking which ones have already faded:
++ Chinese AI Chipmakers Raise Prices Amid HBM Shortage - StratNews Global
+ 3 Stocks Retail Investors Are Watching After Google’s Finland AI Data Center Push - simplywall.st
+ Google Invests $15 Billion on Data Center Buildout in ‘Texas of Europe’ - The Daily Upside (fading)
20 stories were weighed in this window; the 3 carrying the most weight are listed.
Net read: +++ leaning bullish — top of our scale.
What this is: a measure of which way the *news* is leaning right now — not a promise about price. A read being right and a read still being worth taking are two different things: once price has travelled a long way from where the read was published, it is stretched, and a lean that is stretched is a no-chase rather than an invitation.
Weight is not fixed either. A fresh headline lands, the balance tips, and the net read can flip inside an hour — that shift is the part worth watching, not the first print.
I will post an update under this idea once the market has had time to speak, either way.
(Informational only — not financial advice, not a signal.) Long 
NVDA - 3D Double TopNvidia once again looks to be forming a top on the 3-day timeframe. To understand this properly it is important to look back at some of my prior charts to see how this market structure has developed.
Major Resistance Levels
The first thing to understand is the major resistance range between $240 and $250. I first outlined this range here, and although price did not quite reach the 1.618 extension level, it came within $5 of it:
Major Support Levels
The next important takeaway is the 0.618 of the micro trend, as well as the major support region I outlined in this idea:
When I made that post, the high had been established around $217, giving a 0.618 target for the micro trend of approximately $185. However, this changed once price created a higher high at $236.50. Once that new high was established, the 0.618 of the micro trend recalculated to around $192.
This is important to understand, because that 0.618 Fibonacci level and the major support region marked the low on two separate occasions, both in late June and again in late July.
Since then, price has rallied all the way back to the highs, creating a slightly lower high around $234.76 (which I would still consider a double top).
The Gravestone Doji
The reason I believe this is so significant is because of yet another 3-day gravestone doji that has formed.
A gravestone doji signals a powerful bearish rejection, as buyers pushed price higher during the session but sellers stepped in and drove it all the way back down before the close. When this pattern forms at a key resistance level, especially on a higher timeframe like the 3-day, it is considered one of the strongest reversal signals in technical analysis.
I previously outlined the gravestone doji that formed on the 3-day at the last high, and now a very similar structure is forming again at this current top. That previous post can be viewed here:
Now that this top appears to be forming again, a drop back into the major support region and the 0.618 level around $192 seems likely.
A Longer Term Downside Projection
I also want to note that if this ends up becoming a longer term top for NVDA, I have a downside target worth projecting further out.
If NVDA were to enter a bear market from here for whatever reason, I could see price reaching a low around $120 sometime around June or July 2027.
This projection comes from the current trend's 1.618 breakdown extension target aligning with the green lower primary support line referenced in the other ideas linked above.
So if, for whatever reason, NVDA is trading around $120 in the summer of 2027, that would be a very reasonable place to start watching for a macro bottom to form. 
Long
Short
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Could This Compression Lead to a Deeper Correction?🇺🇸 Goldman Sachs (GS) | Could This Compression Lead to a Deeper Correction? 📉🔥
Hello everyone and welcome back to all my TradingView followers! 👋📊
I hope you're all having a great trading session and, as always, managing risk carefully.
Today I’m looking at Goldman Sachs (GS) on the Daily timeframe, with a focus on the combination of macro conditions, oil prices, interest rates, bond yields and the current technical structure.
🌍 Fundamental View | Oil, Rates & Global Market Stress
Global markets are currently facing a difficult combination of macroeconomic risks:
🔹 Geopolitical tensions
🔹 Surging oil prices
🔹 Higher U.S. Treasury yields
🔹 Renewed inflation concerns
🔹 Increasing uncertainty around Fed policy
🔹 Lower risk appetite across financial markets
Brent crude has moved above $100, while U.S. Treasury yields have also risen sharply. Higher energy prices can create additional inflation pressure and make the Federal Reserve's policy path more restrictive.
Markets have even started to price a higher probability of another Fed rate hike, showing how sensitive financial assets have become to inflation and energy prices.
🏦 What about Goldman Sachs?
Goldman Sachs remains a fundamentally strong financial institution.
In Q2 2026, the company reported $20.34B in net revenues, $6.63B in net earnings, EPS of $20.98 and an annualized ROE of 23.5%.
So this bearish scenario is not a statement that Goldman Sachs is fundamentally weak.
The real question is:
Can a strong company still experience a major correction when macro conditions become unfavorable?
I believe the answer is absolutely yes.
📊 Technical Analysis | Daily
The most interesting feature on the chart is the price compression below dynamic resistance.
GS has been consolidating after a strong bullish move, while repeatedly struggling with the descending dynamic resistance.
Current price is around $1,023, with the $980–995 area acting as the key support zone.
This creates an important battle:
🟢 Support: 980–995
🔴 Dynamic resistance: overhead
The longer this compression continues, the more important the eventual breakout or breakdown becomes.
🐻 Bearish Scenario
If sellers take control and price loses the 980–995 support zone, the probability of a deeper correction increases.
The first major downside area would be around:
🎯 903
If 903 also fails, the next major support zone is around:
🎯 800–807
So the potential bearish path would be:
980 → 903 → 806
This scenario becomes significantly more important if it happens together with:
📈 Higher oil prices
📈 Higher Treasury yields
📈 More hawkish Fed expectations
📉 Weakness across major U.S. equity indices
Under such conditions, even a high-quality financial stock like GS can come under pressure.
🐂 Bullish Scenario
The bullish scenario is still alive.
If GS manages to break above the dynamic resistance and successfully holds above it, the current compression could resolve to the upside.
Personally, I would prefer to see:
Breakout → Retest → Confirmation
rather than chasing the initial breakout. 🎯
Until that happens, I would remain cautious about aggressive entries.
⚠️ Final Thoughts
Fundamentally, Goldman Sachs remains a high-quality financial institution, but stock prices are not driven by company fundamentals alone.
Sometimes the bigger forces are:
Macro → Liquidity → Interest Rates → Bond Yields → Risk Appetite
At the moment, elevated oil prices and rising bond yields represent meaningful headwinds for risk assets.
Technically, the compression below dynamic resistance makes the next breakout particularly important.
🔴 Break below 980–995: deeper correction toward 903 and potentially 806.
🟢 Break above dynamic resistance: bullish continuation becomes more likely.
For now, I prefer to wait for confirmation rather than predict the direction too early. 👀
🗳️ What do you think?
Where do you think GS is heading next?
🟢 Bullish: Breakout and continuation higher
🔴 Bearish: Support breakdown and deeper correction
🟡 Range: More consolidation before the next major move
Share your view in the comments! 👇💬
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Trading financial markets involves substantial risk. Always conduct your own research and use proper risk management before making any investment decision.
🏷️ Tags
#GoldmanSachs #GS #NYSE #USStocks #Stocks #WallStreet #SP500 #NASDAQ #FederalReserve #Fed #InterestRates #TreasuryYields #Oil #CrudeOil #Brent #Inflation #GlobalMarkets #StockMarket #TechnicalAnalysis #FundamentalAnalysis #TradingView #RiskManagement 
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Ares Could Have Space to the DownsideAres Management bounced in July and August, but some traders may see downside risk.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the August 7 weekly close of $136.85. That level provided support for more than a month, but yesterday the private-credit company closed below it.
Second, the falling 200-day simple moving average could reflect a bearish longer-term trend.
Third, ARES ended January at $149.67 before dropping below that level. Its peaks in mid-August were in the same zone. Has resistance been confirmed at the old monthly close?
Finally, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) just crossed under the 21-day EMA. MACD is also falling. Those signals may be consistent with a bearish short-term trend.
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TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means. AAPL (D) — the event corrects without breaking the trendNASDAQ:AAPL
Apple trades at $315.34 after the fall event session, a wide range candle (open at $315.485, high at $319.15, low at $309.90) that gives back 0.28% on 65.6 million shares, some 26% above the average of the last hundred sessions. What matters is not the decline, which is minimal, but where price travelled during the day. The low pierced the daily EMA 50 ($312.65) and the close reclaimed it, so the average that has carried the entire leg since April is still intact after the news. The rest of the chart makes more sense once you look at where the stock comes from. The stock rose 104.7% from the April low at $168.18 to the all time high at $344.27 printed in the last week of July, and from that ceiling it works 8.4% lower without having broken anything. The daily structure keeps its bullish bias with its last break to the upside alive and five active demand zones below, the strongest one at $288.12. The moving average stack explains the situation well, because price has lost the EMA 5 ($318.57), the EMA 9 ($318.45) and the EMA 20 ($316.67) while it still sits above the EMA 50 ($312.65), the EMA 100 ($303.12) and the EMA 200 ($286.71). Short term momentum has already turned, with the TRIX crossed down and expanding, and with the stochastics unwinding from the top. The Stoch 89 (63) and the Stoch 50 (59) still work high, but the Stoch 14 (43) crossed down on the 8th and the Stoch 5 (25) is already at the bottom. The RSI 14 (49.40) has lost the midpoint and the RSI 2 (12.84) sits in deep oversold. The MACD is the only one holding the bias, with its main line (1.84) still above its signal (1.43) and a narrowing histogram at 0.4159. Flow has gone flat, with the fast line (92.28) practically glued to the slow one (92.32).
Monthly Analysis. The larger timeframe has not even noticed the pullback and that is the strongest argument on the chart. Price trades above the entire stack, with the EMA 5 ($304.91) and the EMA 9 ($292.50) below as the first cushion and the EMA 20 ($267.23) still far away. The monthly MACD works upward with its main line (28.06) over its signal (23.79) and a histogram at 4.27, while the TRIX keeps a bullish bias although its strength is starting to fade. The stochastics are high and ordered upward, with the Stoch 89 (90), the Stoch 50 (86), the Stoch 14 (79) and the Stoch 5 (65) all pointing the same way, which belongs to a mature trend rather than to a turn. The RSI 14 (67.72) approaches saturation without stepping into it, and flow is the best number of them all, with the fast line (98.34) over the slow one (97.63) and the histogram in positive ground. The monthly structure keeps its last break to the upside with five demand zones alive below. July rose 5.27% leaving the all time high wick behind, August closed 2.44% higher and September runs flat with a 0.52% decline.
Weekly Analysis. The intermediate timeframe is where the short term gets decided and where price is tightest. The current week opened at $317.10, has printed $320.70 and $309.90, and for now holds between the EMA 5 ($315.78) and the EMA 9 ($313.86), which have acted as a moving floor for seven weeks since the July reversal candle. That week opened at $334.25, printed the all time high at $344.27 and closed at $308.64 on the heaviest volume of the year, and since then the stock has moved inside a lateral range whose ceiling sits at $330.81. Below are the EMA 20 ($304.68), the EMA 50 ($282.24) and the EMA 200 ($223.22), which place the real cycle floor far lower. Momentum on this frame is the part that demands respect, because the MACD has its main line (12.16) below its signal (13.04) with a histogram at −0.8797, and the TRIX remains crossed down although its strength is fading. The stochastics, by contrast, all four point upward from high levels, with the Stoch 89 (85), the Stoch 50 (75), the Stoch 14 (63) and the Stoch 5 (53). The RSI 14 (57.82) is comfortable and the RSI 2 (38.34) has already unwound. Weekly flow backs the move, with the fast line (93.17) above the slow one (90.82) and a histogram at 2.35. The range reading closes the picture and explains the title, because on the daily frame price has returned to the cheap half, at 35% of the range between $299.74 and $344.27, while on the weekly one it still trades above the ceiling of the previous range.
Apple arrives at this pullback with the strongest numbers of its recent history. In the quarter ended in June it billed $109.4 billion, 16% more than a year earlier, with the iPhone at $54.25 billion and growth of 22%, and earnings per share of $2.02 that climb 29%. The company changed chief executive on September 1, when John Ternus took over from Tim Cook, and this week's event was his first product launch. It brought the iPhone 18 Pro, the 18 Pro Max and the first foldable of the house, the iPhone Duo, which reaches stores on October 23 for $1,999. That is the catalyst and also the risk, because the supply chain has run into yield problems with the hinges and the screens of the foldable, and the units available at the start will be limited. An upgrade cycle carried by a new high priced product is exactly what the market wants to see, but the cash register will not confirm it until the fiscal year end report.
Key levels:
- Resistance 1: $318.45 and $318.57 (daily EMAs 9 and 5)
- Resistance 2: $322.01 (daily range equilibrium)
- Resistance 3: $330.81 (September range ceiling)
- All time high: $344.27 (last week of July)
- Dynamic support: $315.78 and $313.86 (weekly EMAs 5 and 9)
- Support 1: $312.65 (daily EMA 50)
- Support 2: $309.90 (monthly low)
- Structural support: $304.68-$299.74 (weekly EMA 20 and range base)
Setup Rating — 4/5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭒ (Intact monthly trend, buying flow across the three frames and price back in the cheap half of the daily range, against short term momentum already turned and a weekly frame that has not corrected its bearish cross yet)
✅ Positive factors:
- The session low pierced the daily EMA 50 ($312.65) and the close reclaimed it
- Bullish structure with its last break alive on the daily, the weekly and the monthly at once
- Monthly MACD rising with its main line (28.06) above its signal (23.79)
- A/D buying across the three frames, with the monthly at 98.34 over 97.63
- Price back at 35% of the daily range between $299.74 and $344.27, in discount territory
- Daily RSI 2 at 12.84 and Stoch 5 at 25, with the short term unwind already done
⚠️ Cautions:
- Daily TRIX crossed down and with expanding strength
- Weekly MACD below its signal, with the histogram at −0.8797
- Price under the daily EMAs 5, 9 and 20, which now act as resistance
- Limited initial supply of the foldable due to manufacturing yield problems
👍 As long as closes respect the $313.86 to $312.65 area, where the weekly EMA 9 and the daily EMA 50 meet, the pullback stays a pause inside the bullish leg. The first job on the upside is reclaiming the fast daily averages at $318.45 and $318.57, then the range equilibrium at $322.01 and finally the lateral ceiling at $330.81. Taking several weeks to resolve the band between $309.90 and $330.81 would not be bad news at all, because the weekly MACD needs time to rebuild its cross and here it would get it without putting any support at risk. Confirmation that the range resolves upward would be a weekly close above $344.27.
👎 Losing $312.65 on a close would leave price without immediate dynamic support and put the focus on $309.90, whose break would open the path toward the weekly EMA 20 ($304.68) and then toward the range base at $299.74. That leg would still be a healthy correction, because it matches the cheap half of the move and the area where price leaned in August. Only below there would the $288.12 demand zone and the daily EMA 200 ($286.71) come into play, which is where the underlying thesis would have to be reviewed and not before.
Do you see the foldable cycle already priced in, or is there still room ahead? 👇 
Long
COSTCO can give +100% return in 2 years.Costco (COST) has been trading within an 18-year Channel Up ever since the 2008 Housing Crisis. Since its February 2025 High, it has been on a steady decline breaking below both its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been the main Support of the Bull Cycle since May 2023, and its 1W MA100 (green trend-line), a critical level as it is the one that not only formed the bottom of the 2022 Bear Cycle but has also been holding since September 2017, providing numerous excellent buy entry opportunities.
The current situation looks more like the August 2015 and August 2017 bottoms (orange circles), which broke even below the 1W MA100 and found Support just before testing the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). Practically, the 1W MA200 has been holding as the ultimate long-term Support since September 2010 (exactly 16 years).
At the same time, the 1M RSI has double bottomed on its 16-year Support Zone, which has provided the most optimal Buy Signals of the pattern.
Costco has traditionally been one of the most durable stock investment choices during Bear Cycles/ corrections on stock indices. The Sine Waves are laying out a rather solid mapping of key market top formation periods long-term and we are currently far from one.
The 18-year Channel Up is currently on its 3rd major Bullish Leg and remarkably enough the previous two both rose by the exact same percentage, 347.16%. If the current Bullish Leg repeats that from its 2022 bottom, then we can expect this stock to reach $1800 by late 2028.
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