CRM - Long-Term Bullish Structure at Key Support!CRM (Salesforce, Inc.) is one of the world's leading cloud-based software companies, providing customer relationship management (CRM) solutions that help businesses manage sales, marketing, customer service, and business operations.
From a long-term perspective, the stock remains overall bullish, continuing to respect the red ascending broadening wedge that has guided price action since 2018.
The current decline appears to be a corrective phase, with price moving inside the blue descending channel. It has now reached a key technical area where the lower boundary of the broadening wedge aligns with a strong support and demand zone.
⭕As long as this support area continues to hold, we can start looking for buy setups on lower timeframes. A break above the green trigger area around 210 would provide the first strong confirmation that buyers are regaining control and that the next bullish leg may be underway.
⭕However, if price breaks below the current support zone, the focus shifts toward the next major support area between 65 and 85, where another buying reaction may develop.
The reaction from this support area may reveal whether the current correction is approaching its end, or if sellers can extend the decline toward the next long-term support zone.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis reflects my personal market view and is not financial advice.
Rayan Nasser
#CRM #Salesforce #Stocks #Investing #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #MarketStructure #CloudComputing 
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Another Opportunity, The Same Process in MRNA
After entering **PANW**, I continued monitoring several other stocks that had already caught my attention. A number of them were demonstrating strong relative strength and, from my perspective, signs of sustained institutional participation.
Among those names, **MRNA** was the next asset to present a valid entry according to my trading plan. The signal appeared very close to the market close, and my order was filled in the final minutes of the session.
Because of the timing, I didn't have the opportunity to reduce the trade's risk by moving my stop-loss to **break-even** before the market closed.
As I write this before today's opening, MRNA is trading **higher in the pre-market**. I don't interpret that as a prediction of what will happen next, nor do I assume the trade will become profitable because of it.
What matters to me is much simpler.
If the opening provides enough strength, I'll have the opportunity to move my stop-loss to **break-even**, making the position risk-free. Once that happens, the market is free to decide the outcome.
Everything beyond that is outside my control.
The journal continues.
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SPCX July Outlook. Options TradesI've been watching this descending triangle develop for a while now, and I finally mapped out the three scenarios I think are worth paying attention to. Long term, I'm extremely bullish on the company. Short term? That's a completely different story.
🟢 Bullish Scenario (Green) – The Face Melter
This is the move every bear hopes won't happen. Price holds the $145-$150 area, reclaims the broken trendline, and starts squeezing higher through the previous resistance levels around $162, $164, and $171 before making a run toward $175+.
Is it likely this month? Maybe not.
But as we've seen before, "Elon Musk's companies have a way of ruining bears and melting faces." If buyers suddenly show up and sentiment shifts, this stock can move much faster than most people expect.
🟡 Consolidation Scenario (Yellow) – Maximum Frustration
This is probably the most frustrating outcome.
Price chops around between roughly $135-$152, giving bulls hope one day and bears confidence the next without committing to either direction.
This is exactly the type of environment where option premiums slowly decay while everyone waits for the next catalyst. If this plays out, patience will likely outperform prediction.
🔴 Bearish Scenario (Red) – My Current Lean
Despite how bullish I am on the company's future, this is the path I'm leaning toward through the end of July.
Why?
Fear surrounding upcoming share unlocks.
The company's first earnings report creating uncertainty.
Many traders preferring to reduce risk until those catalysts are behind us.
The chart is still respecting a larger descending triangle with lower highs.
A breakdown below the IPO area around $135 could invite another wave of selling before a longer-term bottom is established.
That doesn't change my long-term outlook—it just means I think the market may need to clear out weak hands first.
My Take
Long term I'm incredibly optimistic about SPCX.
Short term, I think caution is warranted. Until this descending triangle resolves, I wouldn't be surprised if sellers stay in control into earnings and the unlock events.
As always, that's why I lean on the Heavy Diligence Options Signals Indicator. It's designed primarily for identifying high-probability day trades—not predicting where a stock will finish weeks from now. Using the indicator alongside key technical levels like these helps filter out lower-quality setups and focus on trades with favorable risk/reward.
These paths are simply scenarios—not predictions. Price rarely follows anyone's drawings perfectly, but thinking through the possibilities ahead of time makes it much easier to react instead of chase once the market opens. 
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RKLB: Long-Term Uptrend Meets Short-Term CorrectionRocket Lab has reached a fascinating technical inflection point.
After a powerful rally that nearly doubled the stock price in a short period, the market entered a healthy correction. Rather than chasing price, I've mapped out the bigger picture to identify where the next significant move could originate.
📈 The Bigger Picture
The ascending trendline (green support) has acted as the backbone of the longer-term uptrend, consistently producing higher lows over the past several months.
Despite the recent sell-off, that structure **remains intact**.
The correction has also created a series of **lower highs**, which are captured by the descending red trendline. This defines the current short-term bearish trend.
A Compression Pattern Is Emerging
Price is now trading between:
* Rising long-term support
* Falling short-term resistance
This creates a **symmetrical triangle**, where volatility compresses as buyers and sellers battle for control.
Historically, these patterns often precede a significant directional move—but they **do not predict the direction**. Confirmation is far more important than anticipation.
📊 Momentum
The MACD tells an equally interesting story.
Although momentum turned negative following the rally, the histogram is beginning to contract, suggesting bearish momentum is fading. This doesn't confirm a reversal, but it indicates that selling pressure is becoming less aggressive.
Levels I'm Watching
Bullish Case
* Price continues respecting ascending support.
* Breaks above the descending trendline with convincing volume.
* This would signal buyers are regaining control and could open the door to another attempt at higher highs.
Bearish Case
* Price loses the long-term ascending support.
* That would invalidate the current bullish structure and suggest the correction may have further to run before finding stronger demand.
My Take
I don't see this as a chart that requires predicting the next move. Instead, I see a chart approaching a *decision point*.
The longer-term trend is still constructive, while the shorter-term trend remains bearish. Eventually one of those trends will win.
For now, patience is the edge.
The next confirmed breakout—or breakdown—will likely determine Rocket Lab's next major move.
*This is my personal technical analysis based solely on price action and chart structure. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.*
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AMZN July Outlook (Hourly Chart)Amazon is approaching a critical point on the hourly chart. Price has reclaimed some key support, but it's also approaching an area where buyers have repeatedly lost momentum. I've mapped out three scenarios that I think are the most likely to play out through the remainder of July, with earnings serving as the potential catalyst for the next major move.
🟢 Bullish Scenario
The bullish case starts with AMZN holding above the 245 area and breaking through 249.69, where the blue descending trendline and the newer rising support begin to converge. If buyers can clear that zone, I could see a continuation toward the mid-$250s before earnings, with a strong report potentially fueling a move into the $260-265 range.
This would likely require improving market sentiment and continued strength across large-cap tech.
🔴 Bearish Scenario (My Lean)
This is the scenario I'm leaning toward.
While AMZN has bounced nicely, the overall structure still looks more like a lower-high consolidation than the start of a sustained breakout. Each rally has struggled to build meaningful follow-through, and until buyers reclaim the major resistance around 250, I think sellers still have the edge.
If support around 245 fails, I could see price working down through 240.98, 237.32, and eventually testing the 233-226 area before the month is over.
Another reason I'm cautious is that we're heading into earnings. Traders often become hesitant to aggressively accumulate shares ahead of major announcements, which can lead to slower price action or profit taking after recent rallies.
🟡 Sideways Scenario
This is the scenario that frustrates everyone.
AMZN could simply spend the next couple of weeks chopping between 241 and 249, bouncing from support to resistance without committing to either direction. If that happens, the theta monster gets to munch away all your option premiums while both bulls and bears wait for earnings.
It's not exciting, but it's a very realistic possibility heading into a major event.
Earnings & Implied Move
Amazon reports earnings at the end of July, and as that date approaches, implied volatility (IV) will continue to rise. Elevated IV means option premiums become more expensive, and once earnings are released, IV crush can rapidly reduce option values—even if you correctly predict the direction.
The options market will begin pricing an expected post-earnings move as we get closer to the announcement. That implied move is worth monitoring because it provides a realistic expectation for how far the market believes AMZN could travel immediately after earnings.
For that reason, I'm generally not interested in holding long option positions through earnings unless I have a very specific strategy. I much prefer trading:
The run-up leading into earnings if momentum develops.
The overreaction or continuation after earnings, once volatility begins to normalize.
My Outlook
If I had to rank the probabilities today:
🔴 Bearish (my current lean)
🟡 Sideways consolidation
🟢 Bullish breakout
That ranking can change quickly if buyers reclaim the major resistance zone, but for now I think the burden of proof remains on the bulls.
As always, the Heavy Diligence Options Signals Indicator will be my primary tool for entries and exits. While these scenarios provide the broader roadmap, the indicator is designed primarily for day trading on shorter timeframes, helping identify higher-probability Call and Put opportunities leading into earnings and immediately following the report. Combining those signals with key technical levels helps improve risk management instead of simply guessing the next move.
Disclaimer: This is only my interpretation of the current chart and is not financial advice. Always do your own research, wait for confirmation, and manage your risk before entering any trade. 
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CRDO 206% Revenue Growth | Can Credo Do It Again?Credo Technology Group develops the high speed connectivity technology that keeps AI data centers running efficiently. Its business is built around proprietary SerDes and DSP technology, powering Ethernet, PCIe, and next-generation networking solutions up to 1.6T and beyond
The company's biggest growth engine is Active Electrical Cables (AECs), which consume less power, improve signal reliability, and simplify deployment compared to traditional copper cables. These cables have become a preferred choice for connecting GPUs inside massive AI clusters. Credo is also expanding aggressively into optical networking through DSPs, transceivers, and its acquisition of DustPhotonics, giving it stronger exposure to the rapidly growing 800G and 1.6T optical market. Additional revenue comes from retimers, chiplets, IP licensing and connectivity software
With AI infrastructure spending accelerating, AECs remain the primary revenue driver today, while optics is expected to become an increasingly important contributor over the next few years. Thanks to its differentiated technology, Credo continues to generate industry leading gross margins above 68%
📊 FY26 earnings by the numbers
Full Year FY26 (ended May 2, 2026)
💰 Revenue: $1.335B (+206% YoY)
📈 Gross Margin: 68.1% (+310 bps YoY)
💵 Net Income: $662M (more than 5x YoY)
🧮 EPS: $3.46 (+392% YoY)
🏦 Cash & Investments: ~$1.4B
Q4 FY26
💰 Revenue: $437M (+157% YoY, +7.4% QoQ)
📈 Gross Margin: 68.3%
⚙️ Operating Expenses: $81.7M
💵 Net Income: $226.7M
🧮 EPS: $1.16 (ahead of expectations)
FY26 marked one of the strongest growth years in the semiconductor industry, driven by AI infrastructure deployments, exceptional operating leverage, and continued demand for Credo's connectivity solutions
🎙️ Key insights from the call
Management described FY26 as a breakthrough year, highlighting record revenue growth while maintaining best in class profitability. The company believes its vertically integrated connectivity platform improves GPU utilization, lowers power consumption, and increases the reliability of large AI clusters
management expects AI demand to remain strong throughout FY27.. Revenue is projected to continue growing during the first half before accelerating further in the second half, with total FY27 revenue expected to increase by more than 80%. Optical products are becoming a major growth pillar, with management expecting them to generate over $600 million in FY27, supported by the DustPhotonics acquisition
Gross margins are expected to stay in the high 60% range despite a larger optical mix, with Q1 FY27 guidance of 67% to 69%. Management also emphasized expanding relationships with hyperscalers and AI cloud providers while continuing to innovate through products like ZeroFlap to improve network reliability..
Although the stock traded lower after earnings because investors focused on acquisition costs and the possibility of slower growth after an extraordinary FY26, management's long term AI connectivity outlook remained unchanged
🔭 What to watch next
-Q1 FY27 earnings: Management guided for $465M to $475M in revenue. Investors will be watching whether growth continues at the expected pace while margins remain near 68%
-Optics expansion: Can optical products surpass $600M in FY27 and diversify the business beyond AECs?
-AI infrastructure spending: Continued hyperscaler and AI cloud capital expenditure remains the biggest driver of future growth
-Margins: Watch whether the shift toward optics affects profitability or if Credo can maintain its industry leading margins
-Competition:Rivals are investing aggressively in AI networking, making product execution and customer wins increasingly important
Credo has emerged as one of the biggest beneficiaries of the AI infrastructure boom. Its leadership in AECs, expanding optical portfolio, and strong relationships with hyperscalers position the company well for continued growth. The biggest risks remain customer concentration, increasing competition, execution on its optical expansion, and the high valuation investors are willing to pay for sustained AIdriven growth
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Microsoft - A Visual AlmanacA rare structural asymmetry has been developing in the equity markets. While the S&P 500's 9.6% year-to-date return establishes a powerful macroeconomic floor, Microsoft has decoupled from the index by undergoing a -30% correction. This combination of an index momentum cycle and a discounted mega-cap growth leader presents a compelling thesis.
The broader market enters the second half of the year backed by strong cyclical momentum, where front-half strength historically serves as a launchpad:
- The S&P 500’s 9.6% YTD return crosses a historical threshold.
- Since 1990, every calendar year clearing this mid-year bar finished the S&P 500 in positive territory.
- Post-milestone, the index has historically generated an additional median gain of 9.8% over the final six months.
To maximize this expansion, capital naturally rotates toward premium growth engines. Microsoft’s retreat to the $385 range; driven by AI capital expenditure fears, presents a disconnect against its high-velocity operational metrics:
- Microsoft’s annualized AI revenue run rate has surged past $37 billion (up 123% YoY).
- The company's contracted commercial backlog stands at $627 billion, proving capex matches enterprise demand.
- This correction dragged Microsoft’s forward P/E down to 22.9x, now discounted cash flow models suggest a 45% upside within one year.
Just as front-half momentum historically breeds back-half strength for the S&P 500, a heavily compressed mega-cap leader builds the coiled-spring energy needed to fuel an index expansion. For individuals tracking this cycle, Microsoft represents a premier large-cap vehicle positioned to lead the market's second-half momentum. RIVN 1W: When an electric vehicle becomes a businessNASDAQ:RIVN
Rivian builds electric vehicles and commercial vans in the US: the R1T, R1S, EDV for Amazon, and the mass-market R2, whose first units began reaching customers on June 9, 2026. The company trades on Nasdaq.
Operational turning point
On July 2, Rivian released its Q2 production and delivery numbers. It produced 12,613 vehicles and delivered 12,194, beating its own guidance of 9,000–11,000 units. Full-year delivery guidance was raised from 62,000–67,000 to 65,000–70,000 vehicles. Preliminary Q2 revenue came in at $1.55–1.65 billion, above the analyst consensus of $1.45–1.46 billion. The full financial report is due on July 30.
The key fundamental fact the market still underestimates is that in Q1 2026, Rivian posted its first-ever positive gross profit of $119 million on revenue of $1.38 billion. Before that, the company had been losing money on every vehicle sold for years.
Equity offering and DOE loan
On July 7, Rivian priced a public offering of 75 million shares at $15.50. Underwriters fully exercised their option on July 8, bringing the final total to 86.25 million shares. Net proceeds were approximately $1.32 billion. The funds will be used to finance obligations under a $4.5 billion US Department of Energy loan to build a plant in Georgia, which will increase total capacity to 300,000 vehicles per year. The offering triggered a drop of more than 15% on the announcement day. This was a capital raise at a time of operational strength, not a distress sale, exactly what a capital‑intensive growth company should do.
Valuation
After the post‑offering drop, the market offers the following multiples: market cap around $21 billion, enterprise value around $21.5 billion. The trailing P/S is approximately 3.8 on annual revenue of $5.53 billion. Cash per share stands at about $3.77 after accounting for $6.6 billion in debt, implying net debt of roughly $1.8 billion after the offering proceeds. On an EV/Sales basis, the company trades below 4.0, which for an EV maker with a first‑ever positive gross margin looks significantly cheaper than a year ago.
Shareholder structure
Major strategic shareholders include Volkswagen AG with 16.4% of shares under a $5.8 billion investment agreement, and Amazon holding about 12.8% while also being a key commercial customer for EDV vans. Institutional investors include Vanguard and BlackRock. Total institutional ownership is around 52–57% of the float. Having two top‑tier strategic corporate partners is rare for a company of this market cap.
Short interest
Short positions represent 11.74% of the float, or about 150 million shares. This is a significant level that could add upside momentum on a strong catalyst. The next catalyst is the July 30 earnings report.
Risks
Despite the historic gross profit, adjusted EBITDA in Q1 was negative $472 million. Total debt of $6.6 billion combined with operating cash flow of negative $703 million per quarter requires constant monitoring of the cash burn rate. The offering diluted existing shareholders by about 6%.
Technicals – weekly timeframe
On the weekly chart, a trend reversal has been confirmed. Price has settled above all key moving averages. On the daily chart, a breakout and retest of the local downtrend line have been confirmed. On the weekly scale, a clean breakout and retest of horizontal resistance at $17.15–$17.48 has occurred, which now acts as support.
MACD sits at 0.3760 in positive territory with a bullish crossover. ADX at 17.58 signals a developing trend, with buyers dominating: DI+ at 29.80 vs DI− at 17.77. Average daily volume of about 57.33 million shares confirms institutional interest. The current zone of $17.15–$17.60 represents an optimal entry point. The target based on the pattern height is $35.55, implying 107% upside. A stop‑loss should be placed on a daily close below $14.00.
First‑ever gross profit, a delivery beat 20% above guidance, $7 billion in liquidity, Volkswagen and Amazon as strategic shareholders, and 11.74% short interest ready to cover on positive catalysts. The July 30 report will show whether the market is ready to re‑rate the story. 
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