US interest rates Point & Figure says long term 14.1%At present, the Point & Figure (PnF) vertical count, using a 0.1 box size on a close-only basis, projects a very long-term target of 14.1% on the US 2-Year Treasury yield.
One of the reasons I pay close attention to the US 2-Year yield is my belief that the market leads the Federal Reserve, not the other way around. In particular, I believe the Fed largely follows the direction of the US 2-Year Treasury yield, which acts as the market's collective expectation of future monetary policy and inflation. By the time the Fed formally changes rates, the 2-Year yield has often moved well in advance.
Years ago, a Fed Governor publicly acknowledged that the market frequently leads the Fed's decisions rather than simply reacting to them. Whether intentional or not, that admission reinforced a view I had already held for many years: the bond market often tells us where policy is heading long before central bankers officially act.
If that relationship continues to hold, then PnF analysis of the US 2-Year yield can provide valuable long-term insight. Point & Figure charts do not tell us when a target will be reached, only that the underlying supply and demand dynamics imply a target exists. In this case, the chart suggests that 14.1% remains a possible long-term objective, particularly if inflation were to re-emerge as a major problem and policymakers were forced into another aggressive tightening cycle.
What makes this especially interesting is that the same methodology also identified the potential for yields to fall towards the historically low levels we eventually experienced. Looking back 20 years, very few market participants would have believed yields could decline as far as they did, yet the monthly PnF chart projected that possibility well in advance. The chart did not predict the timing, but it correctly identified the direction and scale of the move.
This is why I find Point & Figure analysis so powerful. It removes much of the day-to-day noise and focuses on the bigger structural moves that most market participants cannot yet imagine.
A note on the chart presentation: the green and red lines are the standard 45-degree PnF trend lines. Depending on your screen size and chart settings, they may not visually appear to be 45 degrees. This is simply a scaling issue caused by fitting decades of monthly data onto a single chart. If the chart is resized correctly, the trend lines retain their proper PnF geometry.
Good luck with your trading.
If you're based in the Caribbean, feel free to reach out. It's a part of the world I'd love to spend more time in and build some good friendships.
I'll always be involved in the markets because I genuinely enjoy trading and the challenge it brings. 
Long
US interest rates target long term 14.1% At present, the Point & Figure (PnF) vertical count, using a 0.1 box size on a close-only basis, projects a very long-term target of 14.1% on the US 2-Year Treasury yield.
One of the reasons I pay close attention to the US 2-Year yield is my belief that the market leads the Federal Reserve, not the other way around. In particular, I believe the Fed largely follows the direction of the US 2-Year Treasury yield, which acts as the market's collective expectation of future monetary policy and inflation. By the time the Fed formally changes rates, the 2-Year yield has often moved well in advance.
Years ago, a Fed Governor publicly acknowledged that the market frequently leads the Fed's decisions rather than simply reacting to them. Whether intentional or not, that admission reinforced a view I had already held for many years: the bond market often tells us where policy is heading long before central bankers officially act.
If that relationship continues to hold, then PnF analysis of the US 2-Year yield can provide valuable long-term insight. Point & Figure charts do not tell us when a target will be reached, only that the underlying supply and demand dynamics imply a target exists. In this case, the chart suggests that 14.1% remains a possible long-term objective, particularly if inflation were to re-emerge as a major problem and policymakers were forced into another aggressive tightening cycle.
What makes this especially interesting is that the same methodology also identified the potential for yields to fall towards the historically low levels we eventually experienced. Looking back 20 years, very few market participants would have believed yields could decline as far as they did, yet the monthly PnF chart projected that possibility well in advance. The chart did not predict the timing, but it correctly identified the direction and scale of the move.
This is why I find Point & Figure analysis so powerful. It removes much of the day-to-day noise and focuses on the bigger structural moves that most market participants cannot yet imagine.
A note on the chart presentation: the green and red lines are the standard 45-degree PnF trend lines. Depending on your screen size and chart settings, they may not visually appear to be 45 degrees. This is simply a scaling issue caused by fitting decades of monthly data onto a single chart. If the chart is resized correctly, the trend lines retain their proper PnF geometry. Long 
US10Y Holds Near 4.50%....US10Y Holds Near 4.50% — Breakout in Yields or Another Rejection Ahead?
US10Y is currently trading around the 4.48%–4.50% area after a period of choppy consolidation. The yield has recovered from the mid-June low near 4.42%, but it is now facing resistance around the 4.50% region. This area is important because a sustained move above it could signal renewed upside pressure in yields, while another rejection may keep the market locked inside the current range.
From a market structure perspective, US10Y is currently in a neutral-to-slightly bullish structure on the 4H chart. The strong rally in May pushed yields toward the 4.68% area, but since then the market has shifted into a broad consolidation phase. Recent price action shows higher short-term lows, suggesting that buyers are trying to defend the lower range, but the structure still needs a clean breakout above resistance before bullish momentum can be confirmed.
The first key resistance zone is 4.50%–4.52%. This is the immediate reaction zone where yields are currently struggling. If US10Y breaks and holds above this level, the next resistance area comes around 4.56%–4.58%. A stronger breakout above 4.58% could open the door toward 4.62% and possibly 4.68%.
On the downside, the first key support zone is 4.44%–4.42%. This area has recently acted as a short-term demand zone. If yields hold above this support, the market may continue to build upward pressure. Below that, the stronger support area sits around 4.38%–4.36%, which would become important if the current range breaks lower.
For the bullish scenario, US10Y needs to hold above 4.44%–4.42% and break above 4.52% with confirmation. If buyers can push yields above this zone, the next upside targets are 4.56%–4.58%, followed by 4.62% and 4.68%. A yield breakout could increase pressure on Gold, Nasdaq, and other rate-sensitive assets.
For the bearish scenario, rejection from 4.50%–4.52% would suggest that upside momentum is still limited. If yields then break below 4.42%, the market may move back toward 4.38%–4.36%. A deeper break below 4.36% would weaken the short-term recovery structure and suggest that yields are losing momentum again.
Market sentiment is currently neutral but leaning slightly bullish. Yields are no longer falling aggressively, and buyers have been defending the lower range. However, the market is still below the key breakout zone, so confirmation is needed before calling for a stronger upside move.
Right now, the key question is simple: can US10Y reclaim 4.52%, or will sellers defend the resistance again?
What do you think?
Will US10Y break above 4.52% and push toward 4.58%–4.62%? Or will yields reject from resistance and fall back toward 4.42%?
Share your view below — yield breakout or range rejection? Central Banks' Actions — Why Global Inflation Is Here to StayOver the past few months, I've repeatedly pointed your attention to the US bond market. Yields on 10-year and 30-year US Treasury bonds remain at levels that typically signal expectations of higher inflation and higher interest rates for a prolonged period of time.
But the most interesting part is that this is not just an American story.
If you look at the UK, Germany, Japan, and most other major economies 🔍
You'll notice the same trend. Long-term government bond yields are sitting near multi-year highs despite central banks spending years talking about bringing inflation back under control 💬
The bond market is sending a simple message:
Investors no longer believe we're quickly returning to the world of zero interest rates, cheap credit, and ultra-low inflation.
🤔 Why?
Because over the last 15 years, governments have accumulated enormous amounts of debt. As long as rates stayed near zero, this wasn't a major problem. Today, however, the situation has changed dramatically.
The higher rates go, the more expensive it becomes to service that debt.
This is why central banks have found themselves trapped. 🪤
On one hand, higher rates help contain inflation. On the other hand, they slow economic growth, increase government interest expenses, and create risks across the financial system.
One country stands out from the rest: China.
China faces a different problem. The economy is still dealing with the aftermath of its real estate crisis, consumer demand remains weak, and policymakers are focused on stimulating growth rather than fighting inflation. That's why Chinese bond yields haven't followed the same path as most of the world.
But today, China is the exception.
For most developed economies — and many emerging ones as well — the core issue remains the same: too much debt and increasingly expensive money.
🤖 Now add another major factor to the equation: AI.
At first glance, AI should be deflationary. Companies can produce more with fewer employees, reduce costs, and improve efficiency.
But there's another side to the story.
If AI continues replacing a meaningful share of the workforce, governments will face a new political challenge. Millions of people without stable income could mean weaker consumer spending, rising social tensions, and growing pressure on policymakers. ✊
In that environment, governments will likely face two choices:
Either allow the labor market to undergo a painful adjustment, or expand social programs, subsidies, benefits, and perhaps even move toward some form of universal basic income.
And that's where a new source of inflationary pressure emerges.
Not because AI itself creates inflation, but because the government's response to large-scale job displacement could lead to larger deficits, more debt, and eventually more money creation.
The result is a fascinating paradox:
Technology may be deflationary, while the political response to technology may be inflationary. 🤷♂️
📈 What does this mean for stocks and crypto?
As long as rates remain high, risk assets face headwinds. If investors can earn 4-6%+ annually in government bonds with relatively low risk, demand for growth stocks and cryptocurrencies naturally declines.
However, the long-term picture looks very different.
History shows that governments rarely solve debt problems through austerity alone. More often, debt is gradually reduced through years of moderate inflation.
Not hyperinflation.
Simply inflation that remains above official targets for an extended period of time 📈
❗️That's why I continue to closely monitor the bond market.
Today, high rates are creating pressure on stocks and crypto, but this environment cannot last forever. The longer governments operate with massive debt burdens and expensive debt servicing costs, the greater the probability that monetary policy will gradually become more accommodative in the years ahead.
If that scenario begins to unfold after 2027, investors may once again face a familiar challenge: how to preserve purchasing power in a world where money loses value faster than official inflation targets suggest.
Historically, capital tends to flow into scarce assets during such periods: stocks, gold, real estate, and Bitcoin. 💰
That's why my long-term outlook on Bitcoin remains bullish.
Not because Bitcoin magically goes up forever, but because its supply is fixed while the amount of money in the global financial system continues to expand over time.
_____
👉 If you want to trade like a professional and not like a gambler — follow for real insights and strategies 🚀 Short 
US 10Y TREASURY: Yields rise on rate-hike risksU.S. Treasury yields moved higher this week as markets reacted to the Federal Reserve’s more hawkish tone following Chair Kevin Warsh’s first policy meeting. Although rates were left unchanged, the Fed signaled that additional tightening remains possible if inflation proves persistent, prompting investors to reassess the outlook for monetary policy. This shift reinforced expectations of a “higher-for-longer” rate environment, pushing benchmark yields, the 10Y Treasury, upward closing the week at 4,48%. .
The 10Y yields remain a key focus for markets, serving as the primary barometer of shifting rate expectations and broader risk sentiment. Looking ahead, upcoming U.S. inflation data next week, the PCE report, will be critical in determining whether yields continue to trend higher or stabilize as markets reassess the Fed’s policy path. Current prospects are on the upside, as a strong shift on Friday, indicated that the market sentiment continues to hold toward the upside of the US 10Y yields. Current charts are showing the potential for yields to return back toward the 4,5% level, however, PCE data will most certainly bring back higher volatility to the market.
Long
US10Y — Hawkish Fed, Resistance Ahead—Continuation or Pullback?Following yesterday’s FOMC communication and the market’s interpretation of Kevin Warsh’s conference as relatively hawkish, Treasury markets reacted by repricing expectations toward a more restrictive path ahead. Markets focused less on the unchanged rate decision and more on the stronger commitment to price stability and reduced expectations for near-term easing. Short-term Treasury yields moved higher as investors reassessed future policy expectations.
From a technical perspective, US10Y remains in a broader bullish structure on the daily timeframe, but price is now approaching an important resistance area aligned with the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle.
At the same time, yield action is currently compressed between the 20 EMA and 50 EMA — an area that often acts as a short-term decision zone.
EMA20 (20-period Exponential Moving Average) reacts faster to recent price action and reflects short-term momentum.
EMA50 tends to represent the intermediate directional trend.
When price becomes trapped between both averages, it often signals temporary equilibrium before expansion in either direction.
From here, two scenarios become relevant:
→ If yields lose support and break below the highlighted green area and the 50 EMA, downside momentum may gain probability. In that case, a break-and-retest sell setup could become attractive, with potential movement toward the next support zone and the lower boundary of the symmetrical triangle.
→ If yields hold above the current support and reclaim momentum, a break above the nearby resistance and upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle could signal continuation of the broader bullish structure. In this case, buyers may remain in control and the market could continue pricing a more persistent hawkish outlook.
For now, the key question is:
Will resistance and EMA compression trigger a bearish rotation, or will yields continue pricing a more persistent hawkish environment?
This is a scenario-based analysis — not a prediction.
Disclaimer: This analysis is shared for educational purposes only. It reflects personal market observations and does not constitute financial advice or a trading recommendation.
Rayan Nasser
#US10Y #TreasuryYields #Bonds #FOMC #InterestRates #TechnicalAnalysis #Macro #PriceAction US10Y (United States government 10 year treasury bond yield)US10Y refers to the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Note Yield (also called the 10-year Treasury yield). It is a key benchmark interest rate representing the yield (return) on the U.S. government’s 10-year debt obligation. 
• Current level Approximately 4.43%–4.44%
• It serves as a major economic indicator, influencing mortgage rates, corporate borrowing costs, stock valuations, and currency strength (e.g., higher US10Y often supports USD in pairs like GBP/USD). 
Bond Price vs. Bond Yield: The Inverse Relationship
• Bond Price: The current market value of the bond (what you pay to buy it). Bonds are typically issued with a face value (par value) of $1,000. Prices are quoted as a percentage of par (e.g., 99.5 means $995 for a $1,000 bond). 
• Bond Yield (specifically yield to maturity or current yield): The effective annual return an investor earns if they hold the bond to maturity, accounting for the purchase price, coupon payments, and face value repayment. It is expressed as a percentage. 
Key relationship: Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions (inverse relationship). 
• If bond prices rise (e.g., due to high demand or falling interest rates), yields fall.
• If bond prices fall (e.g., due to selling pressure or rising rates), yields rise.
Example:
• A bond with a $1,000 face value trading at par ($1,000) has a yield roughly equal to its coupon rate.
• If the price drops to $950, the yield increases (you get the same coupons + a gain at maturity for less upfront cost).
• If the price rises to $1,050, the yield decreases. 
This dynamic is central to how central bank policies and economic data affect markets.
What Is a Coupon?
The coupon (or coupon rate) is the annual interest rate that the bond issuer promises to pay the bondholder, expressed as a percentage of the bond’s face value. Payments are typically made semi-annually (twice a year). 
• Calculation: Coupon payment = Face value × Coupon rate.
• Example: A $1,000 bond with a 4.375% coupon pays $43.75 annually ($21.875 every six months). 
The coupon rate is fixed at issuance for most bonds and does not change. It determines the regular interest income you receive regardless of the bond’s market price. 
Coupon vs. Yield:
• Coupon rate: Fixed interest payment based on face value.
• Yield: Actual return, which varies with the purchase price. 
Types of Coupons
1. Fixed-Rate Coupons (most common):
• The interest rate stays the same throughout the bond’s life.
• Predictable payments. Dominant in U.S. Treasuries. 
2. Floating-Rate Coupons (Floating Rate Notes or FRNs):
• The coupon resets periodically (e.g., every 3–6 months) based on a benchmark rate (like SOFR or Treasury bill rate) + a fixed spread.
• Payments adjust with market rates, reducing interest rate risk for the holder. 
3. Zero-Coupon Bonds:
• No periodic interest payments (“zero coupon”).
• Issued at a deep discount to face value; the investor’s return comes entirely from the difference when the bond matures at par.
• Example: Buy for $800, get $1,000 at maturity—the $200 difference is the implied interest. 
#US10Y #bonds #yield Long 
Long
US 10Y TREASURY: Oil decline lifts bonds U.S. Treasury yields moved lower over the week, with the 10Y benchmark easing to 4,43%, as markets reacted to improving geopolitical sentiment surrounding a potential U.S.–Iran agreement. Hopes that a deal could reopen the Strait of Hormuz helped drive a sharp decline in oil prices, reducing near-term inflation concerns tied to energy costs and easing pressure on the long end of the curve. While headline inflation has remained elevated due to earlier energy shocks, recent developments suggest that further upside pressure may be limited if oil supply disruptions continue to ease. This has supported demand for Treasuries, particularly in the 10Y sector, as investors reassess the persistence of inflation risks.
Thursday brought a sharp drop in yields from the previous level of 4,56%. Yields closed the week at 4,48%. However, the week ahead will bring back some nervousness as the next FOMC meeting is scheduled for Wednesday. Not only that the Fed will discuss interest rates, but this meeting will be a debut for the new Fed Chair Warsh. Some modest reversal in yields should not be a surprise. The level of 4,5% could be tested again, while the market sentiment will decide whether this level will be breached, or the markets will continue with the correction.
US10Y UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT 10YEAR TREASURY BONDYIELD.The United States government 10year treasury yields rejected by monthly Supplyroof at 4.671%,break and close above this zone could target 5.0% yearly.
Core PPI m/m 0.4% 0.5% 0.7%
USD PPI m/m 1.1% 0.7% 1.1%
Unemployment Claims 229K 220K
• Headline PPI m/m: Actual 1.1% (vs. forecast 0.7%, previous 1.1%). This came in notably hotter than expected. Year-over-year, it rose to 6.5% (highest since late 2022), driven heavily by energy/goods prices — especially a big jump in gasoline (~23% contribution to the goods increase). 
• Core PPI m/m (ex-food & energy): Actual 0.4% (vs. forecast 0.5%, previous 0.7%). This was slightly softer than expected and a clear slowdown from the prior month. Year-over-year core was around 4.9%, also below forecasts. 
Overall takeaway on inflation: Headline PPI shows persistent upward pressure, largely from volatile energy/fuel costs (goods prices +2.8% m/m). However, the core measure — which better reflects underlying trends — cooled, suggesting the surge isn’t fully broad-based yet. Services prices rose more modestly (+0.3%). This mix indicates cost pressures remain elevated but may not be accelerating as aggressively in underlying components. 
Unemployment Claims Interpretation
• Actual 229K (vs. forecast ~220K, previous 225K). This was a modest increase and the highest in about three months, with the 4-week average also ticking up slightly to ~219K. 
Overall takeaway on labor market: Still historically low and indicative of a resilient (but gradually softening) jobs market. No signs of sharp deterioration, but the uptick adds to a narrative of cooling momentum amid other recent data.
What is US10Y?
US10Y (or US 10-Year Treasury Yield) refers to the yield (effective interest rate) on the U.S. government’s 10-year Treasury note. 
It is a key benchmark in global finance, often quoted in real-time . Investors buy these notes, and the yield reflects the return they demand for lending money to the U.S. government for 10 years. Yields move inversely to bond prices: when demand for Treasuries rises (prices up), yields fall, and vice versa. 
How It Works
• The U.S. Treasury issues these notes to finance government debt.
• The yield is determined by market trading (supply and demand), not directly set by the government.
• It incorporates expectations about future inflation, economic growth, Fed policy, and global risks.
Relationship to the Federal Reserve’s Interest Rates (Fed Funds Rate)
The Federal Reserve primarily controls the federal funds rate — a short-term overnight rate that banks lend to each other. This is the Fed’s main policy tool for influencing the economy (e.g., raising it to fight inflation or cutting it to stimulate growth). 
The US10Y and Fed funds rate are connected but distinct:
1. Fed influences the 10Y yield (but doesn’t control it directly):
• Changes in the fed funds rate affect short-term rates strongly and ripple into longer-term yields like the 10-year.
• Rate hikes by the Fed typically push 10Y yields higher (as markets anticipate sustained higher rates).
• Rate cuts typically pull 10Y yields lower.
• However, the 10Y is also driven by market expectations of future Fed actions, inflation, and growth — not just current policy. This is why yields can sometimes move independently (the famous “conundrum” where long-term yields didn’t follow short-term rates as expected). 
2. 10Y yield influences or signals to the Fed:
• A rising 10Y yield can signal stronger growth or higher inflation expectations, which might reduce the need for Fed rate cuts (or prompt tighter policy).
• A falling 10Y yield often signals economic weakness or lower inflation, pressuring the Fed to cut rates.
In short: The Fed sets short-term rates → this shapes market expectations → which heavily influence the 10Y yield. But the 10Y yield also acts as a market “vote” on the economy, feeding back into the Fed’s decision-making. 
Why It Matters
• Benchmark for other rates: Mortgages, corporate bonds, car loans, etc., are often priced off the 10Y yield.
• Economic indicator: Higher yields can tighten financial conditions (hurting stocks/housing); lower yields ease them.
• Global impact: As a safe-haven asset, U.S. 10Y yields affect capital flows worldwide.
#US10Y
Long 
