Tesla Nasdaq Stock Gann Weekly Analysis 31 March 2025...Chart below shows weekly chart analysis. We square the low of 22 April 2024.
Price objective on upside is achieved one week before with a 50% time objective. As price was early and moving with double speed it needed a price adjustment which was seen quickly on it. Whenever price moves ahead of time and price targets are achieved one needs to book profits as price can correct with time. Same was seen on Tesla with one price cycle correction within a short period of time. We are within the annual cycle completion band. The price of 269 is very important for it.
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Nvidia looking to spice things up maybe ?Stock: Nvidia
Monthly orderblock retest is also possible if the current higher levels fail due to tariff talks in the US.
Weekly zones seem to holding very well.
Good market structure. Can look for some good potential swing moves here.
Be careful. US markets are wild.
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless MindHere you have Charles Thomas Munger, the permanent vice president of one of the most successful companies in the world, Berkshire Hathaway. He was not at the origins of this business, but it was Charles, together with Warren Buffett, who turned a dying enterprise into a star of the world stock market. It didn't take a Master's degree in Business Administration or incredible luck. As Mr. Munger said, to succeed you don't necessarily have to strive to be the smartest, you just have to be not stupid and avoid the standard ways of failure. He worked as a meteorologist, then a lawyer, and finally as someone we know well - an investor who inspired many to take a smart approach to business and their own lives.
“I don’t think you should become president or a billionaire because the odds are too great against you. It is much better to set achievable goals. I didn't set out to become rich, I set out to be independent. I just went a little overboard”, Charles joked. Wake up every morning, work hard, be disciplined and surprisingly, everything will work out very well. This commandment sounds a little archaic in times of rapid rise and easy money. However, for anyone who thinks years and decades ahead, it is difficult to come up with something better.
Speaking to students at his hometown University of Michigan, Mr. Munger said the most important decision you make in life is not your business career, but your marriage. It will do more good or bad for you than anything else. He attached such great importance to human relationships. This correlates strongly with a study of human happiness that has been ongoing for over 85 years under the auspices of Harvard University. The scientists' main conclusion was that everything we build (portfolios, businesses, strategies) is worthless if there is no person in our lives to whom we can say a simple “I'm here”. Or “Thank you”. Or “I love you”.
The healthiest and happiest in old age were not those subjects who earned the most. And those who have maintained good, trusting relationships. Marital. Friendly. Related. And in this light, Charles Munger's words about caution, moderation and common-sense sound quite different. It's not about money. It's about a life that can be lived with the feeling that you have enough. That you don't have to be a hero. That you can just be a reasonable person. Loving. Healthy. Calm.
Perhaps this is the main secret of Mr. Munger's success in the stock market? In the long run, the one who has already won achieves a positive result.
November 28th, 2023, was the last day of the cheerful Charlie's life. There were 34 days left until his 100th birthday.
Institute of Intermediation and 24 Coffee LoversWhen the market is efficient, the most efficient strategy will yield zero financial return for the investor. Therefore, firstly, it is necessary to strive to find inefficiencies in the market itself to apply a strategy that will be effective for it.
What creates market inefficiency? First, there are delays in disseminating important information about the company, such as the approval of a contract with a major customer or an accident at a plant. If current and potential investors do not receive this information immediately, the market becomes inefficient at the time such an event occurs. In other words, objective reality is not considered by market participants. This makes the stock price obsolete.
Secondly, the market becomes inefficient during periods of high volatility. I would describe it this way: when uncertainty hits everyone, emotions become the main force influencing prices. At such times, the market value of a company can change significantly within a single day. Investors have too many different assessments of what is happening to find the necessary balance. Volatility can be triggered by the bankruptcy of a systemically important company (for example, as happened with Lehman Brothers), the outbreak of military action, or a natural disaster.
Third, there is the massive action of large players in a limited market - a "bull in a china shop" situation. A great example is the story of 2021, when the Reddit community drove up the price of GameStop shares, forcing hedge funds to cover their short positions at sky-high prices.
Fourthly, these are ineffective strategies of the market participants themselves. On August 1, 2012, American stock market trading company Knight Capital caused abnormal volatility in more than 100 stocks by sending millions of orders to the exchange over a 45-minute period. For example, Wizzard Software Corporation shares rose from $3.50 to $14.76. This behavior was caused by a bug in the code that Knight Capital used for algorithmic trading.
The combination of these and other factors creates inefficiencies that are exploited by trained traders or investors to make a profit. However, there are market participants who receive their income in any market. They are above the fray and are engaged in supporting and developing the infrastructure itself.
In mathematics, there is a concept called a “zero-sum game”. This is any game where the sum of the possible gains is equal to the sum of the losses. For example, the derivatives market is a perfect embodiment of a zero-sum game. If someone makes a profit on a futures contract, he always has a partner with a similar loss. However, if you dive deeper, you will realize that this is a negative-sum game, since in addition to profit and loss, there are commissions that you pay to the infrastructure: brokers, exchanges, regulators, etc.
To understand the value of these market participants and that you are paying them well, imagine a modern world without them. There is only a company issuing shares and investors in them.
Such a company has its own software, and you connect to it via the Internet to buy or sell shares. The company offers you a quote for buying and selling shares ( bid-ask spread ). The asking price ( ask ) will be influenced by the company's desire to offer a price that will help it not lose control over the company, consider all expected income, dividends, etc. The purchase price ( bid ) will be influenced by the company's desire to preserve the cash received in the capital market, as well as to earn money on its own shares by offering a lower price. In general, in such a situation, you will most likely get a huge difference between the purchase and sale prices - a wide bid-ask spread .
Of course, the company understands that the wider the bid-ask spread , the less interest investors have in participating in such trading. Therefore, it would be advisable to allow investors to participate in the formation of quotes. In other words, a company can open its order book to anyone who wants to participate. Under such conditions, the bid-ask spread will be narrowed by bids from a wide range of investors.
As a result, we will get a situation where each company will have its own order book and its own software to connect to it. From a portfolio investor's perspective, this would be a real nightmare. In such a world, investing in not one, but several companies would require managing multiple applications and accounts for each company at the same time. This will create a demand from investors for one app and one account to manage investments in multiple companies. Such a request will also be supported by the company issuing the shares, as it will allow it to attract investors from other companies. This is where the broker comes in.
Now everything is much better and more convenient. Investors get the opportunity to invest in multiple companies through one account and one application, and companies get investors from each other. However, the stock market will still be segmented, as not all brokers will support cooperation with individual companies, for technical or other reasons. The market will be fragmented among many brokerage companies.
The logical solution would be to create another market participant that would have contracts with each of the companies and universal software for trading their shares. The only thing is that it will be brokers, not investors, who will connect to such a system. You may have already guessed that this is an exchange.
On the one hand, the exchange registers shares of companies, on the other hand, it provides access to trading them through brokers who are its members. Of course, the modern structure of the stock market is more complex: it involves clearing, depository companies, registrars of rights to shares, etc.* The formation of such institutions and their licensing is handled by a regulator, for example, the Securities and Exchange Commission in the United States ( SEC ). As a rule, the regulator is responsible for legislative initiatives in the field of the securities market, licensing of market participants, monitoring violations in the market and supporting its efficiency, protecting investors from unfair manipulation.
*Clearing services are activities to determine, control and fulfill obligations under transactions of financial market participants. Depository services - services for the storage of securities and the recording of rights to them.
Thus, by making a transaction on the exchange, we contribute to the maintenance of this necessary infrastructure. Despite the fashion for decentralization, it is still difficult to imagine how one can ensure speed, convenience and access to a wide range of assets due to the absence of an intermediary institution. The other side of the coin of this institution is infrastructure risk. You can show phenomenal results in the market, but if your broker goes bankrupt, all your efforts will be nullified.
Therefore, before choosing an intermediary, it is useful to conduct a mental survey of the person you will be dealing with. Below you will find different types of intermediaries, which I have arranged according to their distance from the central elements of the infrastructure (exchanges, clearing houses, depositories).
Prime broker
Exchange Membership: mandatory
License: mandatory
Acceptance and accounting of your funds/shares: mandatory
Order execution: mandatory
Clearing and depository services: mandatory
Marginal services: mandatory
Remuneration: commission income from trades, clearing, depository and margin services
This category includes well-known financial houses with history and high capitalization. They are easily verified through lists of exchange members, clearing and depository companies. They provide services not only to individuals, but also to banks, funds and next-level brokers.
Broker
Exchange membership: mandatory
License: mandatory
Acceptance and accounting of your funds/shares: mandatory
Order execution: mandatory
Clearing and depository services: on the prime broker side
Margin services: on the prime broker side or own
Remuneration: commission income from trades and margin services
This category includes intermediaries with a focus on order routing. They delegate participation in depository and clearing services to a prime broker. However, such brokers can also be easily verified in the lists of exchange members.
Sub-broker
Exchange Membership: no
License: mandatory
Acceptance and accounting of your funds/shares: mandatory
Order execution: on the broker or prime broker side
Clearing and depository services: on the prime broker side
Margin services: on the broker or prime broker side
Remuneration: commission income from trades
This category includes brokers who have a brokerage license in their country, but do not have membership in foreign exchanges. To provide trading services on these exchanges, they enter into agreements with brokers or prime brokers from another country. They can be easily verified by license on the website of the regulator of the country of registration.
Introducing Broker
Exchange Membership: no
License: optional, depending on the country of regulation
Acceptance and accounting of your funds / shares: no
Order execution: on the side of the sub-broker, broker or prime broker
Clearing and depository services: on the prime broker side
Margin services: on the broker or prime broker side
Remuneration: commission income for the attracted client and/or a share of the commissions paid by them
This category includes companies that are not members of the exchange. Their activities may not require a license, since they do not accept funds from clients, but only assist in opening an account with one of the top-tier brokers. This is a less transparent level, since such an intermediary cannot be verified through the exchange and regulator’s website (unless licensing is required). Therefore, if an intermediary of this level asks you to transfer some money to his account, most likely you are dealing with a fraudster.
All four categories of participants are typical for the stock market. Its advantage over the over-the-counter market is that you can always check the financial instrument on the exchange website, as well as those who provide services for its trading (membership - on the exchange website, license - on the regulator's website).
Pay attention to the country of origin of the broker's license. You will receive maximum protection in the country where you have citizenship. In case of any claims against the broker, communication with the regulator of another country may be difficult.
As for the over-the-counter market, this segment typically trades shares of small-cap companies (not listed on the exchange), complex derivatives and contracts for difference ( CFD ). This is a market where dealers rule, not brokers and exchanges. Unlike a broker, they sell you their open position, often with a lot of leverage. Therefore, trading with a dealer is a priori a more significant risk.
In conclusion, it should be noted that the institution of intermediation plays a key role in the development of the stock market. It arose as a natural need of its participants for concentration of supply and demand, greater speed and security of financial transactions. To get a feel for this, let me tell you a story.
New Amsterdam, 1640s
A warm wind from the Hudson brought the smell of salt and freshly cut wood. The damp logs of the palisade, dug into the ground along the northern boundary of the settlement, smelled of resin and new hopes. Here, on the edge of civilization, where Dutch colonists were reclaiming their homes and future fortunes from the wild forest, everything was built quickly, but with a view to lasting for centuries.
The wooden wall built around the northern border of the town was not only a defense against raids, but also a symbol. A symbol of the border between order and chaos, between the ambitions of European settlers and the freedom of these lands. Over the years, the fortification evolved into a real fortification: by 1653, Peter Stuyvesant, appointed governor of New Netherland by the West India Company, ordered the wall to be reinforced with a palisade. It was now twelve feet high, and armed sentries stood on guard towers.
But even the strongest walls do not last forever. Half a century after their construction, in 1685, a road was built along the powerful palisade. The street received a simple and logical name - Wall Street. It soon became a bustling commercial artery for the growing city. In 1699, when the English authorities had already established themselves here finally, the wall was dismantled. She disappeared, but Wall Street remained.
A century has passed
Now, at the end of the 18th century, there were no walls or guard towers on this street. Instead, a plane tree grew here - a large, spreading one, the only witness to the times when the Dutch still owned this city. Traders, dealers, and sea captains met under its shadow. Opposite the buttonwood tree stood the Tontine Coffee House, a place where not just respectable people gathered, but those who understood that money makes this world go round.
They exchanged securities right on the pavement, negotiated over a cup of steaming coffee, and discussed deals that could change someone's fate. Decisions were made quickly - a word, backed up by a handshake, was enough. It was a time when honor was worth more than gold.
But the world was changing. The volume of trades grew, and chaos demanded rules.
May 17, 1792
That spring day turned out to be decisive. Under the branches of an old buttonwood tree, 24 New York brokers gathered to start a new order. The paper they signed contained only two points: trades are made only between their own, without auctioneers, and the commission is fixed at 0.25%.
The document was short but historic. It was called the Buttonwood Agreement, after the tree under which it was signed.
Here, amid the smell of fresh coffee and ink, the New York Stock Exchange was born.
Soon, deals were being concluded under the new rules. The first papers to be traded were those of The Bank of New York , whose headquarters were just a few steps away at 1 Wall Street. Thus, under the shade of an old tree, the history of Wall Street began. A story that will one day change the whole world.
Buttonwood Agreement. A fresco by an unknown artist who adorns the walls of the New York Stock Exchange.
Unum Group : Bullish Outlook for Multibagger Potential
📊 Unum Group (UNM) has been showing strong signs of bullish momentum and could be setting up for significant gains in the near future. technical patterns aligning, it looks like a prime candidate for a multibagger return!
🔑 Key Drivers for Bullish Sentiment:
Technical Setup: The stock has recently broken through key resistance levels, signaling the potential for a strong continuation.
#UnumGroup #StockAnalysis #BullishOutlook #Trading #MultibaggerPotential #StockMarket
TSLA @ 248 - Analysis 13-MAR-2025Resistance: 489
Supports: 100/0.9987
As per my analysis, TESLA is reversing from this level. If that is the case, we can see big bull run towards $700/1000.
Downside extensions can be 187, 144, 107, 57.
Reversal from any of these levels, can see 488 first and further 700/1000+.
A High-Risk, High-Reward Bet in the EV – Is Now the Time to Buy?The stock has experienced a significant downtrend, declining approximately 47% in 2024.
Momentum in the China theme could be beneficial for this stock as the RSI is making higher highs with stock prices making lower highs; it can shoot up anytime as per the current setup.
Elliott Waves Insights: Tesla’s Roadmap to SuccessHello friends, let's analyze Tesla's chart using theory. This is a 4-hour chart where we can clearly see that the higher degree, primary degree wave ((3)) in black has been completed. Currently, we're on the verge of completing wave ((4)) in black of the primary degree, which has three subdivisions marked in blue as (A), (B) & (C).
(A) and (B) are completed, and (C) is near completion. Within (C), we have five subdivisions in red, of which 1, 2, 3, & 4 are completed, and the 5th is also more than 60% complete. Once the red fifth is complete, it will mark the end of blue (C) and primary degree wave ((4)) in black.
As soon as wave ((4)) is complete, we can expect a reversal, which should be wave ((5)). Which should cross the high of wave ((3)) which is ATH, So, we're expecting wave ((5)) to start move upwards.
Now, friends, what's the invalidation level for this view? It's $139.20. This is a level that wave ((4)) should not cross, as it's the low of black wave ((2)). According to theory, wave 2 cannot retrace more than 100% of wave 1, wave 3 cannot be the shortest in impulse, and wave 4 cannot enter the territory of wave 1, which is here we’re witnessing in current scenario, which is considering we’re in any diagonal or triangle of higher degree.
If wave ((4)) crosses $139.20, it will invalidate our view. We might be missing some dots to join or create the picture perfectly. Currently, the price is around $222, and we might see a small bounce before making a lower low possibly around $200. If we witness a divergence there, it could lead to a reversal.
Please note that this study uses theory and structures, involves multiple possibilities, and focuses on one potential scenario. There's a risk of being completely wrong. This is for educational purposes only, and users should not trade or invest solely based on this study.
I am not Sebi registered analyst.
My studies are for educational purpose only.
Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses.
Hope this post is helpful to community
Thanks
RK💕
Disclaimer and Risk Warning.
The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com/u/RK_Charts/ is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Charts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Charts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
Exelixis (EXEL) – Oncology Innovation & Growth Potential Company Overview:
Exelixis NASDAQ:EXEL is a biotech leader in oncology, with its flagship drug cabozantinib generating $1.81B in U.S. revenue for FY 2024.
Key Catalysts:
Pipeline Strength & Upcoming Data Readouts 🔬
Zanzalintinib (XL092): Pivotal 2025 trial results could position it as a next-gen cancer therapy, driving potential upside.
Shareholder Value & Buyback Program 💰
A new $500M stock buyback, following the current $500M program, signals strong financial confidence.
With SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:2B in cash, Exelixis has flexibility for R&D, acquisitions, and expansion.
Revenue Growth & Market Positioning 📊
Cabozantinib continues to expand market share, securing its position in oncology treatments.
Investment Outlook:
Bullish Case: We are bullish on EXEL above $32.00-$33.00, driven by pipeline advancements, revenue growth, and capital strategy.
Upside Potential: Our price target is $48.00-$50.00, supported by key trial results, buybacks, and a strong cash position.
🚀 Exelixis—Advancing Cancer Treatments & Delivering Shareholder Value. #EXEL #BiotechStocks #OncologyInnovation
Capital One Financial (COF) Ready for a Quick Bull Run? Capital One Financial (COF) Ready for a Quick Bull Run?
COF is showing strong bullish potential from its current price range. After consolidating near support, the stock is gaining momentum, with key indicators aligning for an upside move.
Technical Setup: Strong Base, indicating accumulation
Breakout Levels: Watch for a push above key resistance for confirmation
If COF breaks above resistance with strong volume, we could see a quick rally toward the next supply zone.
From my perspective, the bull run remains intact. Traders should watch price action and market sentiment for confirmation.
What do you think? Will COF make a move soon?
#COF #CapitalOne #Stocks #Trading #Bullish
"The Bank of New York Mellon Corp ($BK) is looking bullish"The Bank of New York Mellon Corp ( NYSE:BK ) is looking extremely bullish! 📈🔥 Strong base formation followed by a breakout—momentum is building! Targeting 1x to 3x upside potential. Watching for continuation above key resistance levels! 🚀 #BK #Bullish #Breakout"
TSLA Chart analysis -Daily Falling wedge BreakDown Target doneThis is a daily candlestick chart of Tesla Inc. (TSLA) with some technical analysis annotations. Here’s a breakdown of the key insights:
### **1. Price Action and Pattern:**
- The chart shows a descending triangle pattern that broke downwards.
- After breaking down from the triangle, the price dropped by **-113.47 points (-31.11%)** from the breakdown point.
---
### **2. Key Gap Zones:**
- ✅ **Gap 255 – 275 Range**
- Price recently filled or tested this gap zone.
- Currently consolidating near this range.
- ✅ **Gap 242 – 218 Range**
- If the price breaks below the current zone, the next key support is in this lower gap range.
---
### **3. Volume Profile:**
- High volume nodes are visible around **326–275**, suggesting strong historical trading activity (potential resistance).
- Current price near **262.67** shows declining volume, indicating possible indecision or lack of strong buying interest.
---
### **4. Support and Resistance Levels:**
- **Support:**
- Around **250.71** (previous low)
- Next major support at **209.84**
- **Resistance:**
- **273.35** (prior support turned resistance)
- **325.61 – 326.46** (volume profile resistance)
---
### **5. Volume Trend:**
- Volume has been elevated during the recent sell-off, indicating strong selling pressure.
- A reversal would need to see increased green volume and a hold above the 255–275 range.
---
### ✅ **Outlook:**
- If the price holds above **255**, a bounce toward **273–275** is possible.
- A break below **250** could trigger further downside toward the **242–218** range.
- Watch for volume confirmation and reaction near support/resistance zones for directional bias.
---
PLTR Long Idea: Key Retest – Bullish Continuation in Sight? Palantir (PLTR) has successfully closed the gap between $100 and $84 and is now retesting multiple key technical levels that could define the next move.
Technical Setup:
Previous All-Time High (ATH) & Resistance: The stock is currently retesting the $84.79 level, which previously acted as resistance.
Fibonacci Retracement (0.618 Level): This key level aligns with historical price action, adding confluence for a potential bounce.
Bullish Scenario: If PLTR confirms this level as support, we could see an impulse wave forming towards the next key levels.
Upside Targets:
Fibonacci Extensions:
0.382 Fib: Intermediate resistance
0.5 Fib: Mid-level retracement
0.618 Fib & Previous ATH ($123): Strong resistance area
A successful hold above $84.79 could trigger the next leg up, making these fib levels potential price targets.
Risk-Reward Perspective:
This setup presents an asymmetric risk-reward opportunity, favoring upside continuation if confirmation holds. Given the technical confluence, this is a trade setup I would take 9 times out of 10.
Conclusion:
A clean retest and hold of the $84.79 level could fuel bullish momentum, paving the way for higher price targets. Watching for a breakout confirmation before entering.
What is an Appropriate Tesla Discount? Multiple Timeframes!Hello Traders.. It's been too long.
We are back with our first analysis in over 4 months. We answer : What is an appropriate price to either jump on the train or scale into original positions on Tesla? Jumping in around 250, probably decent for at least a 4Hr to Daily Chart Swing. Safer Longs appear to be around 209 as I have outlined with green arrows, labeling the multiple pivots in the recent 5 Year range on Tesla. Tesla is coming down alongside the broader Indices which can be expected. Just because Friday Feb 28th showed us a Solid Hammer looking candle suggesting strong buying power, this does not mean much to me for 3 reasons.
1) This price action has developed in the middle of the move up we observed during Election week late last year.
2) The candle closed without a top wick and so the next daily candle , in theory, has no range to fill moving forward.
3) Momentum at the moment is also Bearish.
Discipline Traders! Leave a comment or Boosted rocket if you'd like to see similar analysis.
$AMD Ready to go bullish???Hello all,
NASDAQ:AMD looks like its gonna form a base around the 90-95 levels and would be soaring back in 3 digits soon.
As you can see the chart says the same on weekly but I am more inclined to check the monthly closing for NASDAQ:AMD in order to go buy this counter.
Let me know your thoughts on the same and its not a financial advice please consult before investing as we do not share profits so would not share the loss as well.
Effective inefficiencyStop-Loss. This combination of words sounds like a magic spell for impatient investors. It's really challenging to watch your account get smaller and smaller. That's why people came up with this magic amulet. Go to the market, don't be afraid, just put it on. Let your profits run, but limit your losses - place a Stop-Loss order.
Its design is simple: when the paper loss reaches the amount agreed upon with you in advance, your position will be closed. The paper loss will become real. And here I have a question: “ Does this invention stop the loss? ” It seems that on the contrary - you take it with you. Then it is not a Stop-Loss, but a Take-Loss. This will be more honest, but let's continue with the classic name.
Another thing that always bothered me was that everyone has their own Stop-Loss. For example, if a company shows a loss, I can find out about it from the reports. Its meaning is the same for everyone and does not depend on those who look at it. With Stop-Loss, it's different. As many people as there are Stop-Losses. There is a lot of subjectivity in it.
For adherents of fundamental analysis, all this looks very strange. I cannot agree that I spent time researching a company, became convinced of the strength of its business, and then simply quoted a price at which I would lock in my loss. I don't think Benjamin Graham would approve either. He knew better than anyone that the market loved to show off its madness when it came to stock prices. So Stop-Loss is part of this madness?
Not quite so. There are many strategies that do not rely on fundamental analysis. They live by their own principles, where Stop-Loss plays a key role. Based on its size relative to the expected profit, these strategies can be divided into three types.
Stop-Loss is approximately equal to the expected profit size
This includes high-frequency strategies of traders who make numerous trades during the day. These can be manual or automated operations. Here we are talking about the advantages that a trader seeks to gain, thanks to modern technical means, complex calculations or simply intuition. In such strategies, it is critical to have favorable commission conditions so as not to give up all the profits to maintaining the infrastructure. The size of profit and loss per trade is approximately equal and insignificant in relation to the size of the account. The main expectation of a trader is to make more positive trades than negative ones.
Stop-Loss is several times less than the expected profit
The second type includes strategies based on technical analysis. The number of transactions here is significantly less than in the strategies of the first type. The idea is to open an interesting position that will show enough profit to cover several losses. This could be trading using chart patterns, wave analysis, candlestick analysis. You can also add buyers of classic options here.
Stop-Loss is an order of magnitude greater than the expected profit
The third type includes arbitrage strategies, selling volatility. The idea behind such strategies is to generate a constant, close to fixed, income due to statistically stable patterns or extreme price differences. But there is also a downside to the coin - a significant Stop-Loss size. If the system breaks down, the resulting loss can cover all the earned profit at once. It's like a deposit in a dodgy bank - the interest rate is great, but there's also a risk of bankruptcy.
Reflecting on these three groups, I formulated the following postulate: “ In an efficient market, the most efficient strategies will show a zero financial result with a pre-determined profit to loss ratio ”.
Let's take this postulate apart piece by piece. What does efficient market mean? It is a stock market where most participants instantly receive information about the assets in question and immediately decide to place, cancel or modify their order. In other words, in such a market, there is no lag between the appearance of information and the reaction to it. It should be said that thanks to the development of telecommunications and information technologies, modern stock markets have significantly improved their efficiency and continue to do so.
What is an effective strategy ? This is a strategy that does not bring losses.
Profit to loss ratio is the result of profitable trades divided by the result of losing trades in the chosen strategy, considering commissions.
So, according to the postulate, one can know in advance what this ratio will be for the most effective strategy in an effective market. In this case, the financial result for any such strategy will be zero.
The formula for calculating the profit to loss ratio according to the postulate:
Profit : Loss ratio = %L / (100% - %L)
Where %L is the percentage of losing trades in the strategy.
Below is a graph of the different ratios of the most efficient strategy in an efficient market.
For example, if your strategy has 60% losing trades, then with a profit to loss ratio of 1.5:1, your financial result will be zero. In this example, to start making money, you need to either reduce the percentage of losing trades (<60%) with a ratio of 1.5:1, or increase the ratio (>1.5), while maintaining the percentage of losing trades (60%). With such improvements, your point will be below the orange line - this is the inefficient market space. In this zone, it is not about your strategy becoming more efficient, you have simply found inefficiencies in the market itself.
Any point above the efficient market line is an inefficient strategy . It is the opposite of an effective strategy, meaning it results in an overall loss. Moreover, an inefficient strategy in an efficient market makes the market itself inefficient , which creates profitable opportunities for efficient strategies in an inefficient market. It sounds complicated, but these words contain an important meaning - if someone loses, then someone will definitely find.
Thus, there is an efficient market line, a zone of efficient strategies in an inefficient market, and a zone of inefficient strategies. In reality, if we mark a point on this chart at a certain time interval, we will get rather a cloud of points, which can be located anywhere and, for example, cross the efficient market line and both zones at the same time. This is due to the constant changes that occur in the market. It is an entity that evolves together with all participants. What was effective suddenly becomes ineffective and vice versa.
For this reason, I formulated another postulate: “ Any market participant strives for the effectiveness of his strategy, and the market strives for its own effectiveness, and when this is achieved, the financial result of the strategy will become zero ”.
In other words, the efficient market line has a strong gravity that, like a magnet, attracts everything that is above and below it. However, I doubt that absolute efficiency will be achieved in the near future. This requires that all market participants have equally fast access to information and respond to it effectively. Moreover, many traders and investors, including myself, have a strong interest in the market being inefficient. Just like we want gravity to be strong enough that we don't fly off into space from our couches, but gentle enough that we can visit the refrigerator. This limits or delays the transfer of information to each other.
Returning to the topic of Stop-Loss, one should pay attention to another pattern that follows from the postulates of market efficiency. Below, on the graph (red line), you can see how much the loss to profit ratio changes depending on the percentage of losing trades in the strategy.
For me, the values located on the red line are the mathematical expectation associated with the size of the loss in an effective strategy in an effective market. In other words, those who have a small percentage of losing trades in their strategy should be on guard. The potential loss in such strategies can be several times higher than the accumulated profit. In the case of strategies with a high percentage of losing trades, most of the risk has already been realized, so the potential loss relative to the profit is small.
As for my attitude towards Stop-Loss, I do not use it in my stock market investing strategy. That is, I don’t know in advance at what price I will close the position. This is because I treat buying shares as participating in a business. I cannot accept that when crazy Mr. Market knocks on my door and offers a strange price, I will immediately sell him my shares. Rather, I would ask myself, “ How efficient is the market right now and should I buy more shares at this price? ” My decision to sell should be motivated not only by the price but also by the fundamental reasons for the decline.
For me, the main criterion for closing a position is the company's profitability - a metric that is the same for everyone who looks at it. If a business stops being profitable, that's a red flag. In this case, the time the company has been in a loss-making state and the size of the losses are considered. Even a great company can have a bad quarter for one reason or another.
In my opinion, the main work with risks should take place before the company gets into the portfolio, and not after the position is opened. Often it doesn't even involve fundamental business analysis. Here are four things I'm talking about:
- Diversification. Distribution of investments among many companies.
- Gradually gaining position. Buying stocks within a range of prices, rather than at one desired price.
- Prioritization of sectors. For me, sectors of stable consumer demand always have a higher priority than others.
- No leverage.
I propose to examine the last point separately. The thing is that the broker who lends you money is absolutely right to be afraid that you won’t pay it back. For this reason, each time he calculates how much his loan is secured by your money and the current value of the shares (that is, the value that is currently on the market). Once this collateral is not enough, you will receive a so-called margin call . This is a requirement to fund an account to secure a loan. If you fail to do this, part of your position will be forcibly closed. Unfortunately, no one will listen to the excuse that this company is making a profit and the market is insane. The broker will simply give you a Stop-Loss. Therefore, leverage, by its definition, cannot be used in my investment strategy.
In conclusion of this article, I would like to say that the market, as a social phenomenon, contains a great paradox. On the one hand, we have a natural desire for it to be ineffective, on the other hand, we are all working on its effectiveness. It turns out that the income we take from the market is payment for this work. At the same time, our loss can be represented as the salary that we personally pay to other market participants for their efficiency. I don't know about you, but this understanding seems beautiful to me.
Expanding Flat on NVIDIA: Bearish or Final Leg?NVIDIA after a recent bullish trend has formed an Expanding Flat correction.
Wave (B) exceeded Wave (A)’s start, confirming this as an Expanding Flat (3-3-5) structure.
Wave (C) is in progress, unfolding in a five-wave sequence.
The 1.618 Fibonacci extension (~102 USD) is a key support zone, with 2.618 (~56 USD) as an extreme bearish target.
A reversal could follow after Wave C completes, so these levels are crucial to watch.
Key Levels to Watch:
102 USD (1.618 Fib extension - first support zone).
56 USD (2.618 Fib extension - extreme bearish case).
❓ Is this the final leg down before a bullish reversal, or more downside ahead?
SMCI at Key Technical Juncture Post-EarningsThe stock has experienced significant volatility recently, influenced by broader market dynamics and company-specific developments.
Key Support Levels:
$39.02: This intraday low serves as immediate support. A decline below this level could signal further downside potential.
$37.90: Aligning with the 50-day moving average, this level offers additional support.
$35.00: A psychological support level that, if breached, may indicate a more pronounced bearish trend.
Key Resistance Levels:
$43.46: The intraday high represents immediate resistance. A break above this level could suggest renewed bullish momentum.
$45.00: A near-term resistance point that, if surpassed, may lead to further gains.
$50.00: A significant psychological barrier and a key resistance level.
Despite recent challenges, including stock sales by senior officers and previous financial reporting issues, Super Micro Computer maintains strong demand for its AI server products. Traders should closely monitor these support and resistance levels, as movements beyond these points could signal significant shifts in market sentiment. Implementing prudent risk management strategies, such as setting stop-loss orders and appropriate position sizing, is advisable given the current market volatility.
In summary, while Super Micro Computer faces technical challenges, its solid fundamentals and market position suggest potential for recovery. Vigilance in monitoring key levels and broader market conditions will be essential for traders navigating this dynamic landscape.
Nvidia at Critical Support: Key Levels to Watch After EarningsNvidia (NVDA) recently delivered impressive earnings, exceeding expectations with robust revenue growth. However, despite the strong numbers, the stock has faced a pullback, shedding about 8.5% as broader AI-related stocks also experienced a downturn. While the long-term outlook remains positive, traders are closely watching key technical levels to assess potential movements.
Major Support Levels:
$115: This level coincides with the 50-day moving average and has historically acted as strong support. A breakdown below this zone could signal further downside pressure.
$102: If selling pressure intensifies, Nvidia could test this level, representing a deeper retracement to previous price action seen in early March.
Key Resistance Levels:
$136: A critical resistance point where the stock previously peaked. A break above this level could suggest renewed bullish momentum.
$150: The next major resistance zone, marking previous highs and serving as a key psychological barrier for investors.
Despite the recent pullback, Nvidia remains a dominant force in AI and semiconductor growth. Traders should monitor these levels closely, as a break below support could lead to further declines, while an upward move beyond resistance may indicate a resumption of the long-term uptrend. Given the current market volatility, applying risk management strategies such as stop-losses and position sizing is crucial for navigating the stock’s price action.






















