ADBE – Potential Long-Term Trend Reversal - Golden Cross SetupAdobe has been in a prolonged downtrend for approximately 2.5 years, with price consistently trading below the MA50.
However, the structure may now be changing. A potentially important reversal pattern is developing, with several possible bullish scenarios ahead.
* Two chart patterns may be forming: a Golden Cross and a Bowl pattern.
* The MA50 is now approaching the MA200, making this a particularly interesting point in the long-term structure.
. Before the current correction, ADBE experienced a strong upside move that broke above the MA200 for approximately 11 trading sessions but ultimately failed to hold the breakout and pulled back.
. That breakout was still significant because it created a new high, H2, above the previous high, H1.
. The key question now is whether the recent low, L2, can remain above the previous low, L1 — potentially creating a higher low — or whether ADBE will continue lower?
. Friday's green candle closed at $252.23, with volume of approximately 10.8M. Could this be the low that establishes L2?
. In my view, L2 is currently in a relatively strong position because it remains significantly above L1.
* Fibonacci analysis of the L1 → H2 move also supports this idea. L2 is currently located within the retracement zone of that move, just below the 0.5 Fibonacci level.
. Based on this structure, I believe L2 could be confirmed relatively soon if price continues to hold this area.
* Volume also provides another interesting signal. Based on my own chart review, average daily volume during 2026 appears to be approximately 4M shares, roughly twice the average daily volume seen during 2024–2025.
These volume figures are approximate and based on my own chart observation.
*The potential Bowl pattern provides several upside scenarios. If the recovery continues, Target 2 at $362.71 would represent the minimum major objective of this pattern.
If the Bowl eventually develops into a Cup and Handle, the longer-term Target 4 at $506.92 could become the ultimate target for this setup.
. Target 1 ($331.50) and Target 2 ($362.71) are based primarily on key support/resistance levels and the Bowl structure.
. Target 3 ($421.48) and Target 4 ($506.92) are based on key support/resistance levels combined with Fibonacci Extension projections.
* Entry: $294.54
For a more conservative entry, I would prefer to see price return to H2 ($294.53) and successfully retest that level.
This would provide additional confirmation that the current structure is developing into a bullish reversal rather than simply another temporary rebound.
* Stop-loss: $262.81 (-10.77%)
* Targets:
Target 1: $331.50
Target 2: $362.71
Target 3: $421.48
Target 4: $506.92
Risk/Reward: 2.15
ADBE could become very interesting in the coming months, with multiple potential entry opportunities depending on how the price structure develops.
*** The reason I am publishing this setup now is not simply because ADBE has fallen significantly.
The most important reason is that a Golden Cross may be approaching in the near future.
If the MA50 crosses above the MA200 while price continues to build a higher-low structure, this could mark an important transition from a long-term downtrend toward a new bullish phase.
IMO, amateur trader.
Good luck! 
Long
RIOT: Breakout or breakdown next?RIOT has been on a sideways journey for the past couple of months. The patterns look very similar to what happened between October of last year to March of this year. It created slight lower lows back then, almost a descending triangle pattern, but instead of breaking down, the price had a breakout. If we are seeing the same or similar pattern right now, then this sideways action is most likely not over yet.
Looking at daily MACD, the price is struggling to gain momentum. Histogram is creating higher highs while price is creating lower highs. The MACD line is still not very strong above 0. If it breaks down again, we should see the correction to continue. Question would be if it will hold support and create a launching pad for price breakout like the last time or if a lot more pain in the future of the bag holders.
EW perspective, the correction could be over already. There is a clear 5 waves move up and that move is being corrected at the moment. If the minute degree wave 2 is really over, then we should see a very strong wave 3 of multiple magnitude. However, there is a chance that a more complex correction is still underway and the latest 5 waves move up is in the mix of multiple leg wxy pattern. If that is the case, then we should see a strong move down i the upcoming weeks, but price should get support at $15-$14 range.
Since direction is not yet clear, it is better to wait and see how things unfold. I may add a position if we see price move above $23 rather quickly. However, a stop loss will be a must to avoid getting caught in a massive meltdown. If price does break below $20 again, then I will look for support in the lower high-volume area to start building positions. 
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ORCL — Relief Rally Stalls Below Major ResistanceOracle closed at $142.07 on August 20, 2026. The stock has recovered strongly from the $114.50 low, but the rebound was rejected at $159.26 and has now entered a consolidation phase.
The short-term picture is neutral, while the broader daily trend remains bearish. Price is sitting near the 20-day EMA at $142.92, but remains below the 50-day SMA at $146.52, the 100-day SMA at $164.37, and the 200-day SMA at $173.63. TradingView’s broader moving-average rating also remains bearish. TradingView technical summary
RSI is neutral at approximately 48.8, while MACD remains above its signal line. This suggests that some rebound momentum is still present, but buyers have not yet regained control. With a daily ATR near $7.11, volatility remains elevated.
Key resistance levels
- $146.50–$148.70: immediate resistance and 50-day SMA area
- $152.00–$159.26: major supply zone and recent swing high
- $164.40–$173.60: long-term moving-average resistance
Key support levels
- $141.00–$137.40: immediate support zone
- $128.80–$125.00: secondary support
- $120.00–$114.50: major demand zone and structural low
Bullish scenario
A daily close above $148.70 would improve the short-term structure and could trigger a move toward $152.00, followed by $159.26.
A sustained breakout above $159.26 would provide stronger trend-reversal confirmation, opening the way toward $164.40 and potentially $173.60.
Bearish scenario
A daily close below $137.40 would invalidate the immediate recovery attempt and expose $128.80–$125.00.
If that zone fails, the market could revisit $120.00 and the major $114.50 low. A breakdown below $114.50 would confirm the continuation of the broader bearish structure.
Fundamental context
Oracle’s cloud growth remains impressive: FY2026 cloud revenue increased 39%, while remaining performance obligations reached $638 billion. However, the company also reported negative $23.7 billion in free cash flow, reflecting the enormous investment required to expand its AI infrastructure. Oracle FY2026 results
Conclusion
ORCL is attempting to build a base, but the rebound is not yet a confirmed trend reversal. The decisive range is now $137.40–$148.70:
- Above $148.70: bullish recovery gains credibility.
- Above $159.26: broader reversal confirmation.
- Below $137.40: bearish continuation risk returns.
This analysis reflects a personal market view and is not financial advice.
Share your thoughts in the comments section of the title. I'm interested in hearing your opinion on this topic.
Thank you in advance.
Laurent
✅ DL INVEST | Community Leader $MCHP: Wave (5) Completed — False Breakout, Triggers Pullback📉 📉 📉
The semiconductor sector has enjoyed an incredible run, but sophisticated capital tracks when the trend exhausts.
If you are looking for an aggressive momentum pivot to compound capital, Microchip Technology Inc.
#MCHP is presenting a textbook structural short setup.
The daily chart shows a clean, completed macro 5-wave Elliott structure.
Friday's aggressive breakdown volume has officially confirmed a structural bull trap.
1. The Technical Setup: False Breakout & Liquidity Sweep Looking closely at the daily structure price finished its multi-month expansion at Wave (5), briefly sweeping liquidity just above the 105.38 High.
The Trap: MCHP attempted to sustain momentum above the vital 2024 high of 95.25, but completely failed to attract institutional follow-through.
Instead, it formed a massive distribution cluster.
The Confirmation: Friday’s -8.27% liquidation event slammed price straight down to 88.34. In a single daily session, sellers wiped out weeks of grinding price action, plunging straight back below the 95.25 structural floor on massive volume expansion.
The trap has sprung.
2. The Fundamental Catalysts: Re-Rating Premium Valuations.
A technical trap needs macro headwinds to sustain a downward move.
Friday gave us the ultimate fundamental double-whammy: The Sector Overhang: Broadcom's recent guidance data reset expectations regarding the blistering pace of macro #hyperscaler and #AI chip spending.
This removed a core growth catalyst that was keeping high-multiple semiconductor stocks afloat.
The Discount Rate Shift: Friday’s stronger-than-expected US jobs report (172,000 payrolls) effectively crushed immediate hopes for interest rate cuts.
Stocks trading at premium multi-year forward P/E valuations are hyper-sensitive to these macro discount rate changes.
When rate cuts are delayed, high-multiple semi valuations contract rapidly.
🎯 Tactical Short Execution Plan
Because the daily candle closed right at its session lows (88.34), shorting directly into the hole carries near-term execution risk if the broader index attempts a Monday morning relief bounce.
We want to execute on a low-volume retest of the broken floor.
The Entry Zone: Look to establish a short position on a lower-timeframe dead-cat bounce back toward the 91.50 – 93.00 cluster (retesting the breakdown value area).
The Stop Loss (Invalidation): Strict stop placement on a daily close back above 95.25 (the broken 2024 high line).
If the bulls manage to re-claim this level, the bearish thesis is instantly invalidated and we preserve capital.
Take Profit (TP) Target 1: The pink consolidation zone between 80.00 and 83.00.
This marks the peak of the previous Wave (3) cluster and serves as natural structural support.
Take Profit (TP) Target 2: The blue structural liquidity pool down at 68.00 if the tech sector encounters a deeper macro ABC correction.
💬 What's Your View on Semis?
Is MCHP signalling a broader tech rotation, or do you think the dip buyers step back in at the 80s support block?
Drop your targets and perspectives in the comments section below!
If you want to follow the compounding journey and catch updates on this short trade, make sure to hit that Follow button!
(Disclaimer: Not financial advice.
Manage your risk according to your own capital allocation rules.
If you don't have any Rules make them before entering financial markets) Short 
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Amazon — Can Buyers Build a Stronger Recovery?Market Structure
Amazon remains in a short-term corrective structure on the 4-hour chart. After a sharp decline from the August high, price has stabilized above recent lows and is attempting to establish a base. While selling pressure has eased, the market still needs to reclaim key resistance levels before confirming a broader trend reversal.
Market Sentiment - Neutral to Moderately Bullish
Market sentiment has improved from recent weakness and is shifting toward neutral to moderately bullish. Buyers are showing signs of returning near support, but stronger follow-through is needed to confirm that momentum has fully turned.
Bullish Scenario
If Amazon breaks above 262.00, buyers could regain control and extend the recovery toward the next resistance around 268.00. A sustained move above that level would improve the medium-term outlook and increase the probability of a broader recovery.
Bearish Scenario
If price fails to hold above 252.00, selling pressure may return and drive the market toward the next support around 248.00. A break below that level would confirm that the correction remains in progress.
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Market Outlook
Amazon is attempting to recover after a prolonged pullback, but price is still trading below key resistance. The recent rebound is encouraging, although confirmation from a higher high is still required before a stronger bullish outlook can be established.
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Key Levels
First Resistance: 262.00
Second Resistance: 268.00
First Support: 252.00
Second Support: 248.00
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Future Scenarios
A sustained move above the First Resistance would indicate improving buying momentum and could open the way toward the Second Resistance.
However, if price breaks below the First Support, sellers may regain control and extend the correction toward the Second Support.
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Event Risk
Amazon's short-term direction may continue to be influenced by overall U.S. equity market sentiment, interest rate expectations, consumer spending data, cloud computing developments, and company-specific news.
However, price action remains the key indicator. If positive news cannot push price above the First Resistance, upside momentum may remain limited. Conversely, if Amazon breaks below the First Support despite supportive market conditions, it would suggest sellers are regaining short-term control.
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Please share your view below:
Do you think Amazon has completed its correction, or is another leg lower still possible?
More market structure and key level updates will be shared regularly.
