Long
Short
BlackRock Deposits 54,096 ETH and 2,015 BTC to Coinbase PrimeBlackRock has made a substantial move by depositing 54,096 ETH, valued at $131.7 million, and 2,015 BTC, worth $153.8 million, into Coinbase Prime. This significant investment highlights the growing institutional interest in cryptocurrencies, as reported by the influencer @lookonchain. Such deposits can potentially influence market dynamics and trader sentiment moving forward.
Breaking It Down
The recent deposit by BlackRock comes at a time when the broader crypto market displays mixed signals, with varying momentum across major assets. BlackRock’s action, totaling approximately $285.5 million, underscores a notable commitment to Ethereum and Bitcoin, two leading cryptocurrencies. The implications of this deposit could resonate throughout the market, potentially attracting further institutional investments and influencing trading strategies.
Quick Take
BlackRock deposited 54,096 ETH and 2,015 BTC to Coinbase Prime on September 17, 2026. The total value of the deposit is around $285.5 million. This transaction indicates strong institutional interest in digital assets. Such large deposits can affect market liquidity and trader sentiment. The actions of major players like BlackRock are closely watched by investors.
By the Numbers
As of now, the broader cryptocurrency market is experiencing fluctuating dynamics, with major cryptocurrencies showing varying momentum. BlackRock’s substantial deposit into Coinbase Prime adds a layer of institutional credibility to the crypto landscape. This could lead to increased market participation by other institutional players, further shaping the trends in the crypto market.
BlackRock is one of the world’s largest asset management firms, focusing on investments across various asset classes including cryptocurrencies. As a prominent player in the financial landscape, any significant investment activity from BlackRock garners attention and can set trends in the market, particularly in the growing sector of digital assets.
What Traders Are Watching Next
Traders should keep an eye on potential follow-through from BlackRock’s deposit, as it may encourage other institutional players to enter the market. The significant liquidity added by such deposits can lead to price stabilization or upward movements in ETH and BTC. Analysts will be watching for any shifts in trading volumes or market sentiment as the impact of this deposit unfolds. Educational: How to Reduce Losses in Stock TradingAn Educational Example Using Adobe
One important lesson in stock trading is that good company fundamentals do not guarantee that the stock price will rise.
Adobe is a useful example. A company can report strong revenue, earnings, or other positive financial results, yet its share price can continue to decline.
Why?
Because the stock market does not only price the current results. Investors are also pricing future growth, expectations, valuation, market sentiment, competition, and technical structure.
This is why traders should avoid relying on fundamental reports alone.
1. Do Not Assume “Good Earnings = Higher Price”
A strong quarterly report may already be expected by the market.
If investors were expecting an even stronger result, the stock can still fall after a positive report.
This is sometimes described as:
“Good news, but the price goes down.”
The important lesson is:
Price action tells us how the market is actually reacting to the information.
2. Respect the Trend
If a stock repeatedly creates Lower Highs and Lower Lows, the market structure is bearish.
Even if the company remains profitable, entering against a clear downtrend can expose a trader to unnecessary risk.
For example:
Lower High → Lower Low → Lower High → Lower Low
This structure suggests that sellers are still controlling the price action.
3. Use Risk Management
The goal is not to predict every move correctly.
The goal is to make sure that one incorrect prediction does not seriously damage your account.
A trader can consider:
Position sizing
Stop-loss levels
Risk-to-reward ratio
Maximum risk per trade
Avoiding excessive leverage
Avoiding adding aggressively to a losing position
4. Separate the Company From the Stock
A good company can become a poor trade at the wrong price.
Likewise, a falling stock does not automatically mean the company is fundamentally bad.
Adobe demonstrates an important principle:
Fundamentals describe the business.
Price action describes how the market is valuing that business right now.
Both can be analyzed separately.
5. Do Not Fight the Market
If the fundamental story looks positive but the price continues making lower highs and lower lows, traders should at least recognize the conflict.
Instead of saying:
“The report was good, therefore the price must go up.”
A more disciplined approach is:
“The report was good, but the market is currently reacting negatively. I need to respect the price structure and manage my risk.”
Key Lesson
The purpose of trading is not to be right all the time.
The purpose is to control risk when you are wrong.
Adobe is a good educational example because it shows that strong quarterly results, profitability, and positive fundamentals do not automatically prevent a stock from declining.
For traders, understanding market structure and risk management can be just as important as understanding the company's financial statements.
Educational content only — not financial advice 
Short
USA Rare Earth (USAR) LONG — 12H ALMA Re-entry (WR 75% · avg RR NASDAQ:USAR · 12H · long only.
(Context: USA Rare Earth — Round Top TX mine-to-magnet · Serra Verde Brazil · NdFeB magnets — policy / magnet / dilution beta on the 12H ALMA Averaging template.)
═
█ RESEARCH HUB
Category: US stocks sentiment 58.8 (Greed) — built from 440 locked notes (193 constructive / 115 risk-off / 92 mixed). Drivers: AES / AVB constructive vs ACX / XLE risk-off.
Sector: US · Industrials 68.0 (Greed) — built from 4 locked notes (2 constructive / 0 risk-off / 1 mixed). Thin Industrials panel; name path sits on the issuer tape below.
Asset: negative (Hub window). USA Rare Earth ~−4% with MP Materials ~−5% on thaw-hope headlines — both names on the same tape.
Tape:
- 2026-09-04 · mixed · TMRC + Serra Verde closed; tape still flat after the combination print.
Calendar:
- 2026-09-17 · FOMC meeting · macro/unlinked · policy
- 2026-09-24 · Trump–Xi White House meeting · macro/category · geopolitics
- 2026-10-01 · CEO transition Humpton → Moraitis · direct · governance
Hub verdict: Category Greed 58.8 and Industrials Greed 68 sit behind a negative name window : thaw-hope headlines cut USAR ~−4% with MP ~−5%, and the 04 Sep TMRC + Serra Verde close left tape flat. Hub frames a post-deal digestion long on the Averaging clock — repair grind under leftover deal shelves, with 17 Sep FOMC and the 01 Oct CEO handoff still on the dated calendar.
═
█ MARKET EDGE
Long Edge 59.7 · Short Edge −54.7 ( 16 Sep snap ~ 15.34 · fill ~ 15.68 ).
Built from: 1H–3D below-EMA time stretch · 1D–1W ALMA OVERHEAT-S · PA fractal lows · SMC/TL odds at the fill — hard discount lean after the re-arm.
Positive factors
- EMA — 1H Below · Cur S:40 vs Avg S:14.4 · Dev +2.6% — execution-ladder below-session overheated vs a normal mean-reversion template
- EMA — 4H Below · Cur S:25 vs Avg S:13.8 · Dev +12.3% — 4H deeply time-stretched below the mean into the arm
- EMA — 1D Below · Cur S:13 vs Avg S:8.7 · Dev +13.2% — daily still on the short side of the mean, stretched vs its own average run
- EMA — 3D Below · Cur S:20 vs Avg S:5.4 · Dev +22.4% — slow clock deeply time-stretched Below (mean-reversion fuel)
- ALMA — 1H LONG · L:1 vs LAvg:3.0 — young above-session at/near the band after the 12H fill
- ALMA — 1D SHORT OVERHEAT-S · S:13 vs SAvg:3.7 — daily band still short and overheated vs its own average run
- ALMA — 3D SHORT OVERHEAT-S · S:4 vs SAvg:3.4 — slow band stretched below
- ALMA — 1W SHORT OVERHEAT-S · S:4 vs SAvg:2.7 — weekly band stretched below; Averaging template matches this counter-trend inventory
- SMC — 1D FVG Enter Bull ~ 15.71 ( 14 Sep ) · bounce up B 55.7% · break down Br44.3% (n=61) — mild demand-hold skew over the fill cluster
- TL — Support Break ( 10 Sep ) · bounce up B 57% · break down Br43% (n=49) — post-break bounce-up fuel on the mean-reversion clock
- Score skew long ~59.7 vs short ~−54.7 — board hard-discount lean
Negative factors
- EMA — 1W Below · Cur S:4 vs Avg S:8.6 · Dev +19.7% — weekly below-session still young on the slowest TF; selloff can extend
- ALMA — 4H SHORT · S:4 vs SAvg:4.1 — 4H below-band session still at typical length (young vs stretch)
- SMC — 4H FVG Enter Bull ~ 15.26 ( 16 Sep 13:30 ) · bounce up B 50% · break down Br50% (n=112) — even hold vs flush at the fill print
- SMC — 4H FVG Raid Bear ~ 15.26 ( 16 Sep 13:30 ) · reject down B 55.7% · break up Br44.3% (n=122) — nearby supply raid still leans reject-down
- TL — Resistance Break ( 15 Sep ) · reject down B 63% · break up Br37% (n=46) — fresh resistance-break ceiling; reject-down skew leads
- PA — Fractal Low Formed and Fractal Low Broken — local low already taken through
- EMA — 3D fake-S 43% — slow-clock stretch can reverse as a one-bar fake as often as it holds
- Small-cap rare-earth beta can gap through the −10% zone (~ 14.11 ) before the ~15×12H sample hold completes
- First lot only (1 of 4 on each twin template) — thin day-1 cushion on a re-arm after the 15 Sep stop
═
█ DESK
Hub is Greed on US stocks / Industrials while the name window is negative (thaw-hope fade with MP, tape still flat after Serra Verde, 15 Sep stop). Edge is a hard discount lean (Long 59.7 vs Short −54.7) from 1H–3D below-EMA overheat plus 1D–1W ALMA OVERHEAT-S — with the 12H fill ~$15.68 already washing toward ~$15.34 on the same session. Fork: Hub risk-off on the issuer vs Edge discount on the bar. Alignment for the template: twin Averaging re-arm into post-stop digestion on the bar close. Sister 8H template on the same bar is desk twin — one Idea on 12H.
Bar-close refill on 12H (and twin 8H) at 16 Sep 13:30 UTC ~ $15.68 after the 04 Sep cycle booked the −10% exit on 15 Sep ~ $15.54 — process re-entry first, thaw-hope headline second.
Takeaway: the 12H ALMA strategy and 75% WR / 3.8 avg RR support a twin first-lot re-arm ~$15.68 into a hard-discount Edge, with 1H–3D below-EMA overheat, 1D–1W ALMA OVERHEAT-S, daily bull FVG bounce-up skew at ~15.71, and 10 Sep support-break bounce-up fuel — while weekly Below stays young, 4H ALMA sits at typical short-session length, 15 Sep resistance-break still rejects down 63%, 4H bear-FVG raid holds a 56% reject-down skew at ~15.26, 3D fake-S 43%, and a name-level thaw-hope fade keep the path a repair grind; nominal risk stays on the −10% hard stop / Pine exit path.
Base case: follow 12H (and sister 8H) ALMA Averaging · hold/add on qualifying bars while the mid-$15 wash digests · mean-revert toward leftover mid-Aug deal shelves if materials tape holds above the stop zone.
Bear case: weekly young Below extends · 15 Sep resistance-break reject-down path wins · thaw-hope / FOMC / CEO-transition tape reprices · template posts −10% toward ~$14.11 from the working average · wait for the next bar-close arm.
═
█ STRATEGY
ALMA Averaging Strategy: ALMA 3 / σ2, SD band 2, min diff 1/1, 25% per bar, up to 4 adds, hard stop −10% from the working average.
Lots (1 of 4 on the 12H Idea clock; twin 8H same fill):
- Lot 1 — 16 Sep 13:30 UTC ~ 15.68
Working average ~ 15.68 . Hard stop −10% from that average ~ 14.11 .
Adds 2–4 stay 25% per bar if lower closes qualify.
Strategy Tester (USAR 12H):
Win rate 75% · profit factor 2.4 · max drawdown 4.6%
Avg winning trade +33.8% · avg losing trade −8.8%
Typical hold ~15×12H bars on winners — US small-cap mean-reversion grid on the rare-earth template · 97-trade sample
Exits when the Above-ALMA run clears its historical average (min diff) or the −10% hard stop from the working average.
Chart: NASDAQ:USAR 12H — ALMA Averaging Strategy.
Educational idea. Live position — past backtest ≠ future results. NFA. 
Long
NIO: The Chinese EV giant builds a bottomNYSE:NIO NIO spent a long time under seller pressure. After a multi-year downtrend, the stock has formed a broad base, and the key question now is whether this structure is truly turning into a reversal. Since August 2025, price broke above the upper boundary of the long-term descending channel, shattering the multi-year bearish trend and shifting the stock into a fundamentally new phase. After that, the stock could not immediately transition into a vertical rally and instead formed a broad consolidation roughly in the $3 to $8 range, where a global multi-bottom has been forming since January 2024, representing prolonged accumulation by large players.
Throughout this period, strong hands have been steadily absorbing market supply within this wide price corridor. The lower horizontal boundary of this platform in the $3.00 to $3.50 range has proven its resilience over the past two years. Every time price reached this area, a powerful buyer reaction followed, because large capital held the limit barrier and defended its positions. Now price is making a final push lower, and the key area of interest is the $2.82 to $3.02 zone. This is where the OTE zone marked on the chart sits, with the 0.786 Fibonacci level at around $2.82. The $2.82 to $3.02 area can therefore be viewed as the main zone where the market must show buyer reaction if the long-term base scenario remains valid. An important caveat: this is not a guaranteed bottom. If price settles below this area, the base structure will come under pressure.
Above, the main technical barrier is $8.02. Historically, this level, coinciding with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement of the entire impulse, acted as a reinforced floor, and it has now turned into the key macro-cycle resistance. As long as price remains below it, the stock continues to sit inside a large consolidation. A confirmed close above $8.02 would change the technical picture and open space toward the next zones at $14 to $16.
And this is where NIO's fundamental story becomes especially interesting, because the technical picture is now being reinforced by real business numbers. In Q2 2026, the company reported RMB 32.14 billion in revenue, up 69.1% year over year. Vehicle revenue grew 80.1%, and vehicle margin rose to 18.5% from 10.3% a year earlier. NIO also delivered positive operating cash flow and positive adjusted profit in Q2, although the company remains loss-making on a GAAP basis. That recovery in margin and operating cash flow is precisely the fundamental trigger that the technical picture is beginning to price in at the lower boundary of the base.
Vehicle deliveries also continue to grow. In July, NIO delivered 35,934 vehicles; in August, 35,836. Total deliveries for the first eight months of 2026 reached 262,893 vehicles, up 57.9% versus the same period last year. The financial position remains a significant factor as well: as of the end of June, NIO held around RMB 56.7 billion ($8.4 billion) in cash, restricted cash, short-term investments, and long-term deposits. That gives the company a substantial liquidity buffer to continue scaling the business.
Now to shorts. As of August 31, 2026, NIO's short interest stood at 129.99 million shares, roughly 130 million. But high short interest alone does not guarantee a short squeeze. It requires a real catalyst and a strong upward price move. The latest exchange volume data fully confirms this reversal scenario: on the most recent weekly candles, trading volume and delta are critically declining at the lows of the current range. This is a direct technical sign of seller exhaustion. The bears have run out of fuel, and there is simply no one left to push price below the current multi-bottom shelf. At the same time, a critical amount of short positions has accumulated on the exchange. Falling market sell volume against such short interest means that any large purchase from the multi-bottom zone would instantly trigger a cascading short squeeze, panic short covering by funds, and a vertical price spike toward the first target at $8.02.
That is why the combination of factors here is interesting: the stock is near the lower boundary of a multi-year structure, NIO's fundamentals have noticeably improved, deliveries are growing, margin is recovering, and open short positions remain substantial. If the $2.82 to $3.02 zone holds and price begins to form a reversal, the next serious test becomes $8.02. $3 to $8 to $14 to $16 are the key levels to watch in this structure.
But the key trigger here is not merely the fact that price is near support. The market needs to prove that NIO can genuinely convert delivery growth and margin improvement into sustainable financial progress. If that happens simultaneously with a technical breakout above $8.02, the current multi-year base will receive far stronger confirmation. If the $2.82 to $3.02 zone is lost, the entire reversal structure will come under serious pressure.
This publication is for analytical purposes only and does not constitute individual investment advice. Technical levels are scenarios, not guarantees of price movement.
Long
Long
Long
NVDA After FOMC: Can 220 Turn the Next Move Into a Breakout?NASDAQ:NVDA
FOMC is done, but for me the real trade starts with the reaction. The Fed raised rates by 25bps to 3.75%–4.00%, and now I’m watching which stocks can actually hold their levels. NASDAQ:NVDA is the one I’m focusing on.
📊 My NVDA setup
NVDA is trading around $213.89 on the 4H chart after getting rejected from the 232–234 area. The level I care about now is 216–220.
If price reclaims 220 and holds above it, I’m watching 228 first, then 232–234. That would give me a clear breakout structure instead of chasing candles.
If 220 keeps rejecting, I’m not forcing an entry. The next area I’m watching is 208–210, with 200 as the major support.
My invalidation is simple: if the 208–210 support zone breaks with confirmation, the bullish setup loses strength.
⚠️ The risk
The biggest mistake here would be assuming that FOMC being over automatically means stocks should move higher. The market still has to confirm it.
That’s why I marked the zones instead of trying to predict every candle. I want price to come to my levels and show me what it wants to do.
🎯 Why Bitget for this setup?
This is also why I like trading the setup through Bitget. NVDA Stock Perps are available 24/7, so I’m not limited to traditional U.S. market hours. I can use USDT, go long or short, and manage the position even when Nasdaq is closed.
Bitget also puts Stocks, CFDs and Crypto on the same platform. For a trader who watches both traditional markets and crypto, that makes switching between markets much easier.
Liquidity is another big reason. The current Bitget’s market-depth position for U.S. Stock Perps against Binance, OKX, Bybit and Hyperliquid. For a setup like NVDA, where execution matters around key levels, I’d rather trade where there is strong order-book depth and less concern about unnecessary slippage.
Bitget also supports standard futures-style tools like limit, market, trigger, TP and SL orders, while stock futures remain available 24/7.
📌 Final plan
Above 220 → 228 → 232–234
Below 208–210 → 200
Between those levels → wait.
I’m adding this setup to my KCGI TradingView journal. No forced trade. I’ll let NVDA confirm the direction first. 
Long
Week 38 of 52 | NBIS Can $228 Hold?When I covered NASDAQ:NBIS in Week 21, the stock was in a powerful momentum phase. It had already made a major move, but the chart was still behaving well: higher highs, higher lows, and pullbacks that were being bought before they could turn into real damage.
The main risk at that point was not that the story would suddenly disappear. It was that the stock had become extended and would eventually need a deeper reset. That is what we got.
NBIS pushed toward $300, then gave back a large part of that move and traded down into the $150–160 area. That zone mattered because it was the first place where the prior expansion could realistically reset without completely breaking the larger bullish structure. Buyers showed up there, and the rebound was sharp.
The problem is that the first attempt to continue higher stalled near $250. That was not a random number. It is a major round-number level, it sits below the prior highs, and it became the first area where sellers clearly stepped back in. The rejection from $250 brought NBIS back into the middle of its recent range.
Now the stock is trading near $228 in premarket. This is the level I am focused on.
$228 is not the final breakout level, but it is an important pivot. A move above it that holds through the regular session would suggest that the recent bounce is gaining traction and that buyers are willing to support price above the middle of the range. If that happens, $250 becomes the obvious next test.
For the bullish case to improve materially, I would want to see more than a quick premarket spike. I would want to see price hold above $228, pull back without immediately losing it, and ideally build volume as it approaches $250. A close above $250 would be much more meaningful than simply touching it. That would put the $280 area back on the chart, with the prior $300 high as the larger upside reference.
On the downside, the first level to watch is around $209. If NBIS cannot hold $228 and begins fading through that area, the market is telling us that the reclaim failed. Below there, $196.50 is the more important support. That was the base of the recent move and losing it would likely shift the focus back toward the $160 area.
Fundamentally, the AI infrastructure story is still there. Demand for compute remains strong and Nebius has secured meaningful customer commitments. But this is also a capital-intensive business. The financing needed to build out capacity has become part of the chart, especially after the recent convertible-debt pressure. That does not invalidate the long-term thesis, but it explains why the stock can move violently in both directions.
So I would not treat a green premarket as confirmation by itself.
NBIS has already shown that buyers will defend the bigger support zones. The next question is whether they can reclaim $228 and turn it into support. If they can, $250 is back in play. If they cannot, patience is still the better trade.
Not financial advice. 
Long
Long
Long
Long
Long
Long
Is SMCI in the Early Stages of Another Short Squeeze?SMCI is one of those stocks where the chart can look boring right up until it suddenly isn’t.
After zooming out, I think there is a legitimate argument that SMCI may be entering the early stages of another squeeze-type setup.
I want to be careful with the wording there.
I am not saying a short squeeze is guaranteed.
I am saying the combination of structure + short interest + possible catalysts is interesting enough that I think the setup deserves real attention.
The structure is what caught my eye first
On the larger daily chart, SMCI has spent months building a broad base.
Below current price, HDTL shows a dense cluster of projected AOAs around:
$27
$28
$30
$31
$32
$34
That is a lot of historical agreement underneath price.
Above current price?
The structure gets much thinner.
The next areas I care about are roughly:
$37–$38
$40
$45
$52
And that is where this starts getting interesting.
The $45 area is not just some random upside target I drew on the chart.
It lines up with the next major Projected AOA and also gets into the neighborhood of the larger descending trendline.
So if SMCI can reclaim $38, then build acceptance over $40, I think the market starts opening the door toward $45. And if $45 eventually breaks with real participation? Then the structure above gets even more interesting.
Now add the short interest
This is where the squeeze discussion comes in. As of the latest reported data, roughly 93.4 million SMCI shares were sold short, representing around 17%–19% of the float depending on the float calculation used. Short interest had also increased from the prior reporting period. That is meaningful. It does not mean shorts are automatically trapped. It does mean there is a large pool of potential future buyers if price starts moving against them. That is how I think about short interest, It is fuel. It is not the ignition. Something still has to force those positions to reconsider.
And that brings us to catalysts.
What could provide the ignition?
There are several possibilities.
Supermicro entered fiscal 2027 with record backlog and said it received more than $60 billion in new orders during the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026.
The company is also guiding fiscal 2027 revenue to roughly $65B–$72B, well above where Wall Street expectations had been sitting before that forecast.
That matters because the fundamental debate around SMCI is not whether AI infrastructure demand exists.
It clearly does.
The debate is whether SMCI can convert that demand into sustainable revenue growth and acceptable margins.
The company is heavily exposed to the AI infrastructure cycle through systems built around NVIDIA Blackwell and Blackwell Ultra, with liquid-cooled rack-scale deployments becoming increasingly important.
NVIDIA itself says Blackwell continues to represent the majority of its system shipments while Vera Rubin has begun production shipments, with demand remaining strong enough that supply constraints are still an issue.
That gives SMCI several possible catalysts:
AI infrastructure demand remains stronger than feared
large customer/order announcements
better-than-expected margins
continued backlog conversion
strong Blackwell / Rubin deployment commentary
analyst upgrades or target increases
another strong earnings reaction
a broader AI infrastructure rally
And then there is the technical catalyst:
price itself.
Sometimes the catalyst for a squeeze is simply crossing the level everyone thought would hold.
The three scenarios I’m watching
🔵 BLUE 45%
This is currently my highest-weighted scenario.
SMCI reclaims $38, begins building acceptance above $40, and buyers start pressing into the thinner structure above.
If that happens while volume expands, I think $45 becomes a very realistic decision area.
And this is where the short interest becomes important.
If price starts approaching $45 while the fundamental narrative is simultaneously improving, some shorts may decide they no longer want to wait around and see what happens.
That covering can add fuel to an already advancing move.
And if SMCI eventually clears $45 + the larger descending trendline, I would start looking toward the next larger structural area around $52.
That is the setup where the words short squeeze start becoming much more interesting.
🟢 GREEN 35%
Still bullish.
Just slower.
SMCI repairs gradually:
$38 → $40 → consolidation → $45
Instead of a violent squeeze, we get a healthier grind higher.
Honestly, this might be the better long-term outcome.
It allows structure to develop and gives price time to prove that buyers are actually accepting higher valuations rather than just chasing momentum.
Shorts may still cover along the way, but it is controlled rather than explosive.
🔴 RED 20%
The bullish thesis weakens considerably if SMCI loses $34 and starts accepting back into the dense $30–$32 AOA cluster.
That would tell me the recent move was probably just another failed repair.
And this is important:
High short interest does not protect a stock from going down.
A company can remain heavily shorted for a very long time if the bearish thesis remains intact.
That is why I will never look at 17%+ short interest and automatically say:
“Squeeze incoming.”
Price still has to prove it.
The biggest thing I am watching
Volume.
Yesterday SMCI gained about 3.4%, but volume was only around 31 million shares versus roughly 46 million average. That is not what I would call breakout participation.
So if Blue is really developing, I want to see that change.
A break through $38 / $40 accompanied by expanding participation would mean much more to me than price drifting through those levels on light volume.
Because the squeeze equation is really:
technical breakout
1. catalyst
2. expanding volume
3. large short base
= potential forced buying
Not:
lots of shorts = moon
Bottom line
Do I think SMCI is definitely beginning another short squeeze?
No.
Do I think the conditions exist for one to develop?
Absolutely.
The short interest is there.
The catalysts are there.
The AI infrastructure demand is there.
And most importantly:
the chart is approaching levels where the structure begins to open up.
That is why $38 → $40 → $45 matters so much to me.
If price earns those levels with real volume, this gets very interesting very quickly. 
Long
Long
Long
