ETHBTC: Wedge Reclaim Confirmed by CISD at 0.382Gate one, the descending wedge off the September high has been the dominant structure for ten months, each touch of the upper boundary rejecting cleanly until this one.
Gate two, price compressed into the wedge apex and tested the 0.295 to 0.382 fib band on approach, the same OTE zone marked as the long entry region on this chart, before the current push through the upper boundary.
Gate three, CISD confirmed the shift at 0.382, the control bar reclaiming the boundary with a clean close rather than a wick poke through it. Under Continuation Acceleration Protocol, CISD functions the same way CHoCH does on the intraday charts, a state-of-delivery change that only counts once the close confirms it, not the touch.
The OTE zone marked here, 0.236 to 0.382, is the same region that's produced the reaction on every major low across this entire dataset, going back to the May 2025 impulse candle that started the original wedge in the first place. That's not a coincidence of drawing tools, it's the same zone doing the same job across more than a year of price action.
Volume has been declining across the wedge's entire duration, the compression happening on shrinking participation rather than expanding pressure. A boundary reclaim on a base that thin carries less certainty than one with expansion behind it, worth being direct about that limitation.
What invalidates this: a close back inside the wedge, below 0.382. What confirms it: continued acceptance above the boundary, ideally with volume finally picking up rather than continuing to fade.
Marcus Aurelius wrote that the impediment to action advances action. Ten months of rejection at this trendline was the impediment. CISD is the first close that didn't repeat it. 
Long
Short
Long
Short 
ETH Analyses-11, [July 21, 2026]Welcome to my page! I share daily technical analyses of Ethereum and other charts here.
BINANCE:ETHUSDT
💡 Market Analysis:
The price is currently compressing within a wedge pattern and testing the upper trendline resistance. We anticipate a rejection toward the key support at 1,670.00 before a strong breakout with an 80% candle body triggers a new bullish trend.
Key Support & Resistance:
Key Resistance: 2,000.00 - 2,250.00
Key Support Area: 1,670.00 - 1,850.00
🎯 Trade Entry & Exit Plan:
Entry : Breakout/Pullback of trendline or key zones with >80% candle body and two waves outside the range.
Stop Loss : Behind the last wave or the last breakout candle with a large body.
Take Profit : Minimum R:R 2, with further targets at major horizontal levels (2,000.00 and 2,250.00).
⚠️ Risk Management:
Maximum 1% risk per trade.
❤️ Please share your thoughts and comments on this analysis! Long 
Long 
BTCUSDT:Sellers Still in Control — Liquidity Above,Targets BelowPrice is trading inside a larger descending range, and the recent bullish move looks more like a corrective pullback than a confirmed reversal. The key area I am watching is around 64,100–64,200. If price pulls back into that zone, it could collect more buy-side liquidity before sellers step back in.
My main idea is simple:
The broader bias remains bearish unless price breaks and holds above the upper structure. From here, there are two scenarios I am watching.
Scenario 1: Price pulls back toward 64,100–64,200, rejects that area, and then continues lower.
Scenario 2: Price does not give a deep pullback and simply continues pushing lower from the current structure.
For me, the bearish idea stays valid as long as price fails to reclaim and hold above the current resistance zone. If sellers defend this area, I expect price to continue toward the lower liquidity areas around 57,300–57,000.
If price breaks above the resistance and holds, then the short idea is delayed, and I would reassess the structure.
This is not financial advice. This is just my personal chart read based on market structure, liquidity, and continuation behavior.
Short 
Price bounced off $62,200 support, now consolidating at $63,400BINANCE:BTCUSDT 1H — Range structure intact. Price bounced off $62,200 support, now consolidating at $63,400 with eyes on $65,800 resistance.
BTC sold off sharply into the $62,200 demand zone on July 14, met heavy buying volume, and ripped back toward $65,100. That level rejected, and price has now pulled back to $63,400 — still holding higher-low structure above the range floor.
📍 Key Levels:
Support: $62,200
Resistance: $65,800
📌 Entry: $63,400 (current consolidation zone)
🛑 Stop Loss: $61,800 (below support + buffer)
🎯 TP1: $65,100 (previous swing high)
🎯 TP2: $65,800 (range ceiling)
📐 R:R: 1:1.5 (to TP2)
🔍 Why this setup:
The $62,200 support held on a volume spike — the heaviest bars on this chart printed during that sell-off and bounce, confirming real buyer interest at the level. Price has reclaimed mid-range and is building a base. The range is clean: defined floor, defined ceiling, and price is closer to the floor than the ceiling. That asymmetry favors longs.
I'm watching $64,300 as the short-term inflection — a reclaim there likely accelerates the move toward $65,800. A break below $62,200 invalidates the entire setup. Short 
Long
Long
SPACE ID (ID) LONG — 8H ALMA Setup (WR 78%)█ SETUP
BYBIT:IDUSDT.P · 8H · long only.
(Context: SPACE ID — crypto identity / web3 naming protocol; alt-beta to BTC liquidity and risk appetite.)
ALMA Averaging Strategy: ALMA 3 / σ2, SD band 2, min diff 6 bars to add / 1 bar to exit, 25% per bar, up to 4 adds, hard stop −10% from average entry.
Strategy Tester (ID 8H):
Win rate 78% · profit factor 3.3 · max drawdown 9.6%
Avg winning trade +11.7% · avg losing trade −6.8%
Typical hold ~13×8H bars on winners — alt-identity mean-reversion grid on the 8H Averaging template · 72-trade sample
█ WHY NOW
Fresh 8H ALMA long on the 20 Jul 16:00 UTC bar ~ 0.03147 — first lot on this Averaging template (1 of 4).
Bar-close ENTRY on the Bybit perp — not a discretionary SPACE ID narrative chase and not a hand-picked “alt dip” call. Hard stop −10% from fill ~ 0.0283 . Exits follow Pine ALMA flip + min diff or the hard stop. Scale-in stays 25% per bar, up to 4 adds, if lower bars qualify (entry gate needs 6 bars between adds).
═
█ MACRO
Sector: ID = SPACE ID — on-chain identity / naming beta; flows track broad alt risk appetite more than a single protocol catalyst.
Tape (mid–20 Jul): crypto still chopping after the mid-Jul risk-off / repair week — BTC around the mid-$60Ks into 20 Jul, with thin name-specific SPACE ID headlines in the window. No dated ID catalyst overrides the fill.
Execution is 8H ALMA Averaging on the arm bar, not a token-roadmap or “alt season” forecast.
═
█ OUTLOOK
Positive factors
- Tester skew: 78% WR · PF 3.3 · avg win +11.7% vs avg loss −6.8% — workable hit-rate with winners larger than typical losers on a 72-trade sample
- Fresh ≤24h first lot ~0.03147 — template just armed, not a late chase into a finished move
- Close-to-close max drawdown ~9.6% on the tester path — path risk is contained vs many alt grids, while the live −10% hard stop still bounds script risk per ladder
- 8H clock + 6-bar add gate = slower scale-in than 4H meme grids — fewer frantic add prints if the wash extends orderly
Negative factors
- Snapshot gap — no factor board: ID not on the 20 Jul watchlist collect — no independent EMA / ALMA Cur-vs-Avg, SMC, or VWAP Touch confirmation; technical read is live 8H chart + strategy overlay only
- First lot only (1 of 4) — no averaged cushion yet if 8H extends lower before the 6-bar add gate qualifies
- Alt-beta / perp gap risk — BTC risk-off days can wick thin identity names through a %-stop before the next bar close
- No fresh SPACE ID headline or research brief in-window — nothing idiosyncratic cushions a broad alt flush
- Avg win vs avg loss is solid but not extreme — one extended loser can still offset several small wins if the ladder prints the full stop path
Takeaway: the 8H ALMA strategy and 78% WR / PF 3.3 support a disciplined first-lot long at ~0.0315, but the missing factor board, first-lot-only state, and pure alt-beta tape frame a scripted mean-reversion grid — not a catalyst bounce; nominal risk stays on the −10% hard stop / Pine exit path.
Base case: follow 8H ALMA Averaging · hold/add on qualifying bars while BTC/alt beta stays orderly · grind toward the next ALMA exit band if the mid-Jul repair continues without a fresh risk-off gap.
Bear case: lose 8H ALMA · BTC risk-off gaps the perp · −10% from ~0.03147 toward ~0.0283 · template posts the stop and waits for the next bar-close arm.
Chart: BYBIT:IDUSDT.P 8H — ALMA Averaging Strategy.
Educational idea. Live position — past backtest ≠ future results. NFA. 
Long
BTC Structure Shift: 1H OB Break Confirmed | FVG Retracement Ana🌅 Morning Market Analysis
Price has successfully broken above the 1H Bearish Order Block, confirming that buyers have gained control of the short-term market structure. Before the breakout, price spent several hours compressing beneath resistance, absorbing sell orders rather than rejecting lower. This compression was followed by a strong impulsive candle that broke the Order Block with expanding volume, confirming bullish momentum.
After the breakout, price created a new 1H Bullish Order Block (around the breakout origin). Price has already returned to this area twice, mitigating it while holding above it. Multiple successful mitigations suggest buyers are still defending the zone, although each additional test can gradually weaken it.
On the 15-minute timeframe, price left behind a Fair Value Gap (FVG) during the impulsive move higher. Price is currently retracing into that imbalance. This is healthy price action, as markets frequently revisit inefficiencies before deciding whether to continue trending. A successful defense of the FVG would support continuation toward higher prices.
📈 Market Structure
The overall structure has clearly improved.
* ✅ Multiple higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL) have formed after the breakout.
* ✅ Consecutive Bullish BOS (Breaks of Structure) confirm buyers remain in control.
* ✅ The previous bearish structure has been invalidated.
* ✅ The breakout above the 1H Bearish Order Block represents a significant structural shift.
Overall, the path of least resistance is currently up unless buyers lose the new support zones.
⚡ Momentum
Momentum remains bullish, although it is cooling slightly after the explosive rally.
The move into the breakout was:
* Strong impulsive candles
* Large candle bodies
* Little overlap between candles
* Minimal pullbacks
Now momentum has transitioned into a controlled pullback, which is normal after an impulse.
At the moment this looks more like profit-taking than aggressive selling.
📊 Volume Analysis
Volume tells an important story.
✅ During the breakout:
* Volume expanded significantly.
* Buyers participated aggressively.
* Price and volume moved together (volume harmony).
After the impulse:
* Volume has decreased.
* This is common after an expansion phase.
* Lower volume during a pullback is generally healthier than high selling volume.
There is no obvious bearish volume divergence visible from the chart alone. Instead, volume appears to be contracting while price retraces, which often reflects a pause rather than a reversal.
📉 EMA Analysis
The EMA structure is constructive.
* Fast EMA remains above the slower EMAs.
* All EMAs are sloping upward.
* Price is trading above the EMA cluster.
* The 50 EMA is acting as dynamic support.
As long as price remains above the EMA cluster, the short-term trend remains bullish.
If price begins closing below the 50 EMA and the faster EMAs cross back underneath, that would weaken the current trend.
🕯️ Price Action
Several things stand out:
✔️ Buyers defended the bottom of the premium zone three separate times, showing strong demand before the breakout.
✔️ Compression beneath resistance usually represents accumulation. Instead of rejecting lower, buyers repeatedly absorbed sell orders until resistance finally gave way.
✔️ The breakout candle was decisive, not a slow grind.
✔️ Current candles are retracing into support instead of immediately collapsing.
That is generally constructive price action.
📐 Chart Pattern
Rather than a traditional chart pattern like a flag or triangle, this resembles:
Accumulation → Breakout → Retest
Sequence:
1. Consolidation under resistance
2. Buyers absorb liquidity
3. Strong breakout
4. Retest of imbalance/FVG
5. Decision point
This is a common continuation sequence in trending markets.
💧 Liquidity
Price likely swept liquidity above the previous local highs during the breakout.
Now the market is checking whether buyers are willing to defend higher prices.
If buyers defend the 15-minute FVG, the next objective is likely higher liquidity near the previous swing highs.
If buyers fail there, price may revisit the new 1H Bullish Order Block.
📍 RSI
From your screenshots:
1H RSI
* Around 55
* Bullish, but not overbought.
15M RSI
* Around 48
* Neutral after cooling off from the breakout.
This suggests momentum has reset rather than become exhausted.
🔑 Key Support
🟢 15M Fair Value Gap (current test)
🟢 New 1H Bullish Order Block
🟢 EMA Cluster / 50 EMA
🟢 Previous breakout level (old bearish OB)
🚧 Key Resistance
🔴 Recent swing high near 65.6k–65.8k
🔴 Upper liquidity resting above today's breakout
🎯 Bias
🟢 Bullish while price remains above:
* 15M FVG
* New 1H Bullish Order Block
* EMA cluster
🟡 Neutral if price loses the FVG but holds the 1H Bullish Order Block.
🔴 Bearish only if price closes back below the new Bullish Order Block, loses the EMA cluster, and begins printing lower highs and lower lows.
📖 Overall Narrative
The market appears to have transitioned from accumulation into expansion. Buyers spent considerable time absorbing sell pressure beneath the 1H Bearish Order Block before finally breaking through with strong momentum and volume. Since then, price has established a bullish structure with consecutive higher highs and higher lows, while the EMA alignment supports the trend.
The current pullback into the 15-minute Fair Value Gap is consistent with a healthy retracement following an impulsive move. If buyers defend this imbalance and volume begins expanding again, the probability increases for another leg toward the 65.6k–65.8k liquidity area. If the FVG fails, the next key area to monitor is the newly formed 1H Bullish Order Block, which should act as the primary support zone for maintaining the bullish trend. Long 
Long 
Short 
Bitcoin: Double Top or Breakout?Major resistance tested
Bitcoin has rallied back into the previous high around $65,600, where sellers have once again stepped in. This remains one of the most important resistance levels on the chart, with bulls needing a decisive break and close above it.
Potential double top
The latest rejection keeps the possibility of a double top alive. Another failure at this level would strengthen the bearish case and increase the likelihood of a move back towards lower support.
Trend still constructive
Despite the rejection, the 100/50-period EMAs remain bullishly crossed, with price continuing to trade above both upward-sloping averages. That keeps the broader short-term trend tilted in favour of the bulls.
Momentum & volume
RSI has climbed back above 50, while StochRSI remains just below overbought territory, suggesting momentum is improving but not yet exhausted. Buying volume also increased into the latest rally, highlighting stronger demand than previous advances.
In Summary
Bitcoin has reached another critical test at the $65,600 highs. Improving momentum, stronger buying volume, and bullishly crossed moving averages all favour the bulls, but resistance continues to hold firm. A convincing break and close above this level would invalidate the potential double top and open the door to fresh highs. Until that happens, another rejection remains a realistic outcome, making this one of the most important levels currently on the chart. Long 
Short 
