TAO: Textbook Move Within a Descending ChannelTAO: Textbook Move Within a Descending Channel – Patient Strategy to Hunt the Optimal Reversal Pivot
TAO is moving highly systematically inside a textbook descending channel, structuring a notable technical setup for the upcoming cycle. Observing the visual data on the 4-hour chart , the symmetry of the bearish structure is clearly defined. The initial two downward waves measured from peak to trough consistently printed a steady decline within the $140 to $150 range. Currently, the price action is traversing its third downward leg, strictly adhering to this historical mathematical sequence.
If history repeats itself accurately, the target for this current downward wave will point straight toward the psychological round number support zone around the $150/token mark. This represents the strategic floor where strong dip-buying demand is expected to step in and trigger a powerful bullish reversal wave. Why should we absolutely avoid executing additional Short positions at the current extended prices? The reason is that the price has already traveled more than halfway through its primary downward leg. Furthermore, consecutive candle closes beneath the dynamic MA100 trendline indicate that the selling pressure has been largely absorbed by the market, leaving minimal downside potential.
Consequently, the smartest trading behavior right now is to remain patient on the sidelines. We will wait for the price to complete its decline toward the $150 zone to map out a Long position, capturing a major edge with a very tight stop-loss placement.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice, DYOR.
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QNT: Compression at Macro Support BoundaryQNT: Compression at Macro Support Boundary – Capital Allocation Opportunity Ahead of a Breakout Cycle
QNT is drawing exceptionally close to the final stage of a long-term macro sideways consolidation, opening up a highly promising technical setup on the high timeframe. Observing the visual weekly data on chart , the solid historical support baseline below is defending the price floor with immense efficiency. Historical cyclicality reveals that each time the price action corrected back to this structural barrier, a powerful upward impulse materialized immediately after, locking in six consecutive successful bounces.
Currently, the market is experiencing its seventh technical retest right within this strategic baseline area. The key distinction here is that the price candles are compressing heavily and have not yet launched into a definitive breakout rally. This persistent sideways behavior indicates that the bears' selling pressure is completely depleted, while dip-buying demand is silently building up an accumulation phase to gather fresh momentum for the next expansion cycle.
Since this compressed zone sits at a crucial technical pivot, we can evaluate two optimal approach strategies. The safest route is to acquire direct spot ownership (Spot) at the current range to build long-term positions, effectively avoiding ongoing holding fees over a prolonged consolidation period. Conversely, for leverage traders, the smartest behavior is to remain patient on the sidelines, waiting for a clear volume confirmation signal validating an upward trend before triggering any Long positions.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice, DYOR.
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Trend Reversal Level: 67,720.67
Hello Traders,
Follow for more market insights and technical analysis updates.
Wishing everyone a profitable trading day.
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BTC is currently holding above the 1D HA-Low support level at 62,793.20 and continues to show signs of a potential recovery. As long as this support remains intact, the probability of maintaining the broader bullish structure continues to increase.
However, StochRSI is still pointing lower, suggesting that momentum has not fully shifted back in favor of the bulls. Confirmation of a bullish reversal in the indicator would strengthen the case for further upside.
Meanwhile, OBV has failed to break above its High Line and is showing weakness, indicating that buying pressure is still lacking. For this reason, it's important to monitor where fresh demand steps in and whether support can continue to hold.
From a higher-timeframe perspective, the key supply/resistance zone remains at 69,000 ~ 73,499.86.
For active traders, however, the real trigger level is 67,720.67. A breakout above this level followed by a successful retest and hold as support would be a strong indication that the market has transitioned back into a bullish trend.
The key question is whether BTC can continue consolidating above 62,793.20 into the next expected volatility window around July 29, building enough momentum for a breakout attempt above 67,720.67.
✅ Key Levels
• Major Support: 62,793.20
• Bullish Trend Reversal Confirmation: Break and hold above 67,720.67
• Major Resistance/Supply Zone: 69,000 ~ 73,499.86
• Indicators to Watch:
- StochRSI bullish reversal
- OBV showing renewed buying pressure
• Expected Volatility Window: Around July 29
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Thanks for reading.
Wishing all traders successful trades and solid risk management. 🚀
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Build Your Trading Plan Before Entering the Market
Hello traders,
If you enjoy this analysis, make sure to follow for more market insights and trading strategies.
Wishing everyone green candles and profitable trades. 🚀
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One question always comes up in trading:
✅ Which coin should I trade?
✅ What criteria should I use to select a coin?
At the end of the day, consistent profits come not from perfect chart analysis alone, but from having a solid trading plan and sticking to it.
Before entering any position, you should define three key elements:
1. Investment timeframe (Scalp / Day Trade / Swing / Long-Term)
2. Position sizing
3. Entry and profit-taking strategy
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📌 How to Choose the Right Coin
Fundamentals, utility, and project development are important.
However, what actually moves the price is capital flow and market participation.
That's why understanding where the price is positioned within the larger market structure is often more important than knowing every project detail.
By analyzing the chart, we can determine whether market participants still have confidence in a project.
For example, after a major decline, if a coin is able to establish a base and avoid making new ATL (All-Time Low) levels, it could indicate that selling pressure is gradually being absorbed and investors are still accumulating.
Looking at LINKUSDT as an example:
▶ 4.976 ~ 6.870 Zone
If price holds this support range and shows a clear reaction, the probability of a bullish trend reversal increases significantly.
Therefore, identifying these accumulation zones and waiting for confirmation can provide high-probability trading opportunities.
Newly listed tokens are slightly different.
Following their first major correction, it is common for them to revisit or even create a new ATL once or twice before establishing a long-term bottom.
Risk management remains critical.
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📌 Capital Management
Every trader has a different account size, but one rule applies to everyone:
Always keep at least 20% of your portfolio in cash or stablecoins.
This reserve capital can be used for:
✔ Buying major dips
✔ Taking advantage of new opportunities
✔ Lowering your average entry price
✔ Managing existing positions
If this reserve capital is deployed, make sure to rebuild your cash position as soon as possible.
Running out of liquidity often leads to emotional decisions, FOMO entries, and poor risk management.
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📌 Plan Your Entries and Exits Before Opening a Position
Trading is like a voyage.
A captain doesn't leave the harbor without knowing the destination.
Likewise, traders should determine beforehand:
✔ Where to accumulate
✔ Where to scale out
✔ Where to take profits
A trading plan should be established before entering the market and maintained throughout the life of the trade.
Market volatility is something to react to, not a reason to abandon your strategy.
A temporary pullback shouldn't change the long-term thesis unless the original premise becomes invalid.
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📌 Think Carefully Before Closing 100% of a Position
Whenever possible, avoid fully exiting your position before your primary target is reached.
A full exit means the trade is officially over.
After that, many traders end up chasing price action and re-entering without a clear plan.
If you decide to sell 100% of your position, there should be a strong and objective reason behind that decision.
If the sale was purely emotional, it is often best not to look back at that chart.
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📌 Current LINK Trading Perspective
From a macro market structure perspective,
▶ 4.976 ~ 6.870
remains a major demand zone.
If price finds support and begins showing bullish confirmation within that area, the probability of a trend reversal increases.
For swing traders and long-term investors, this would be a key accumulation area.
Most importantly:
Do not place blind limit orders.
Wait for support confirmation and evidence of a bullish reaction before entering.
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Currently, price is trading near the
▶ HA-Low Zone
Therefore, traders should monitor the
▶ 8.250 ~ 8.382 Range
for support confirmation.
If buyers successfully defend this area, it could provide an attractive long opportunity.
On the upside,
▶ HA-High
▶ DOM (60)
should be considered potential profit-taking zones.
This aligns with a basic trading framework:
✅ Buy between DOM(-60) and HA-Low
✅ Take profits between HA-High and DOM(60)
However, this should be viewed as a tactical execution strategy rather than the overall investment thesis.
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📌 Profit-Taking Strategies
There are generally two ways to take profits:
① Realize profits in cash.
② Sell enough to recover your original investment while keeping the remaining tokens as a "free position."
For swing and long-term traders, the second method can be extremely powerful.
Let's say price moves significantly higher.
Instead of fully exiting, you sell enough to recover your initial capital.
As a result:
✔ Original capital is secured
✔ Remaining tokens become pure profit
The remaining position effectively has a zero cost basis.
This creates a strong psychological advantage, allowing you to hold through volatility with far less stress.
For long-term crypto investing, this can be one of the most effective profit-taking methods.
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📌 Key Trend Reversal Level
A major bullish trend is more likely to begin if price can break above and hold:
▶ 11.064
Therefore, the final major accumulation opportunity can be viewed around this level.
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📌 Primary Target Zone
From a higher timeframe perspective, the expected target range remains:
▶ 20.111 ~ 25.782
Any price movement beyond this area should be treated as an overextension or bonus-profit zone.
Therefore:
▶ 4.976 ~ 11.064
should be considered the primary accumulation range.
Once your core position has been built, shorter-term trading strategies such as day trading or swing trading can be used to generate additional gains while maintaining the core position.
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📌 Track Your Core Average Entry Price Separately
After completing your core accumulation phase, record your actual average entry price separately.
Why?
Because repeated short-term trades will alter the average cost displayed by the exchange.
Although your core position may remain unchanged, exchange-reported averages can become distorted.
This can significantly affect trading psychology.
For that reason, it is highly recommended to track:
✅ Core Position Average Price
✅ Trading Position Average Price
as separate metrics.
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📌 Final Thoughts
Great chart analysis alone does not guarantee profits.
Without a clear strategy and proper execution, even the best market analysis can fail to produce consistent results.
The real question is not:
"What should I buy?"
The real question is:
"How will I manage the trade after I buy?"
Create your big-picture trading plan before entering the market.
Stay disciplined during volatility.
Trust the process.
In the long run, a well-executed strategy will always outperform emotional decision-making.
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Thank you for reading.
Wishing everyone disciplined risk management, successful trades, and many green candles ahead. 🚀📈
DYOR. Manage risk. Trade responsibly.
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Dogecoin (DOGE/USD) — A Long-Term Elliott Wave Perspective
On the weekly chart, Dogecoin continues to present a potential large-degree five-wave impulse structure.
As with the long-term structures I have previously shared for Bitcoin and Ethereum, DOGE may currently be developing within Wave IV of this larger impulse.
At the aggressive count, Wave IV can be interpreted as a large sideways correction composed of two larger zigzags connected by an intervening wave. This connecting wave itself may take the form of a Triple Zigzag and, from a geometric perspective, shows similarities to an Expanded Diagonal structure.
Within this interpretation, Wave Y is currently developing as a classic Simple Zigzag, and price has already reached the initial targets identified on the chart.
The reaction at the next target zones will now become increasingly important.
A sustained move higher and a confirmed breakout from the corrective channels shown on the chart could provide the first significant evidence that the correction is complete and that the next bullish phase is beginning.
Each channel breakout may provide additional confirmation step by step. However, the reaction following the breakout, the ability of price to hold above the broken structure, and the subsequent development of the bullish pattern will remain important.
A More Conservative Alternative Count
At the same time, a more conservative interpretation must also remain on the table.
In this scenario, the same Expanded Diagonal that is interpreted as Wave X within the aggressive count could instead represent Wave 1 of a higher-degree Wave 5.
If this interpretation is correct, the recent decline could be developing as a Simple Zigzag, forming Wave 2 of a higher-degree Wave 5.
The key condition for this scenario is that the current correction must not move beyond the origin of Wave 1.
As long as that critical low remains intact, the possibility remains that the market is still completing Wave 2 before beginning the next larger advance.
A break above the corrective structure, followed by the development of a sustained bullish move, could then provide confirmation that Wave 2 has completed and that the market is entering Wave 3 of the larger Wave 5.
Two Counts — One Potentially Bullish Path
The interesting aspect of these two interpretations is that both can ultimately lead to a bullish outcome. The primary difference is the degree of the wave count and the position of the current structure within the larger Elliott Wave sequence.
Under the aggressive interpretation, the larger correction may already be approaching completion, allowing the market to transition directly into the next bullish phase.
Under the conservative interpretation, the market may first need to complete Wave 2 of a higher-degree Wave 5. As long as the key Wave 1 low holds, the next advance could then develop as Wave 3.
For now, the key factors to monitor are:
Price reaction at the next target zones;
Confirmed breakouts from the corrective channels;
The preservation of the key Wave 1 origin in the conservative count;
And the development of a valid bullish structure following the breakout.
Until these confirmations appear, patience remains essential.
The market will ultimately reveal which wave count is correct through its structure.
— Mr. Nobody | Elliott Wave Principle
DOGE
Dec 15, 2023
Doge In Strong Bullish Market, Five Wave Up
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USDT.D + USDC.D 1W | Stablecoin Dominance AnalysisThis is just my personal view of the current market.
In my opinion, the combined USDT + USDC Dominance is still following its uptrend, and at the moment I don't see a strong reason for that trend to change before liquidity is taken from the highs.
The current move is supported by a strong support zone, the EMA 21, and the SHA indicator, all of which continue to support the current trend.
For me, this chart is one of the most important indicators for the crypto market. If Stablecoin Dominance continues to rise, it would likely mean that more capital is moving into stablecoins, which could put additional pressure on the crypto market.
Based on the current market structure, I still believe there is room for further upside. The highlighted liquidity zones above are the areas I'm watching most closely.
Of course, the best outcome for crypto would be for Stablecoin Dominance to reverse from here, but I think one more move higher is still possible.
That could create even more bullish sentiment, encouraging more people to enter the market and believe that the bull run is continuing. From my perspective, the current uptrend has not ended yet.
As always, this is just my personal analysis, not financial advice. The market can change at any time, and no one knows the exact direction. The market can always prove us wrong, but I prefer to trust what my charts are telling me.
Good luck, everyone! 🍀📈 
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BTC keeps failing at 66,000. My long arms the day it doesn't📈 BTCUSDT · Long swing setup (1D)
THE SETUP
Bitcoin has spent six weeks trapped between roughly 58,000 and 66,000 after the slide from the May top above 82,000. The range top is the whole story. Price pushed into 66,000 in mid June, was rejected hard (marked on the chart), and has not closed above it since. What has changed is the shape of the lows: June printed 58,000, then the recovery stepped up through 60,000 and 62,000, and price now presses into that same ceiling from a much higher base. That is compression against resistance, not a dead range.
This is a conditional Reclaim-Retest and it is not live yet. I am not buying inside the range.
CONFLUENCES
• 66,000 is a twice-defended range top, so a daily close above it flips a level that matters
• Rising lows into resistance: 58,000, then 60,000, then 62,000, now 64,700
• Entry is the retest of the flipped level, at structure. I am not paying up above 66,000
• Stop sits below the July higher-low structure, so a failed breakout is cleanly defined
• Open air to the June breakdown shelves at 69,500 and 72,000
FUNDAMENTALS
The reason this is conditional and not live is geopolitical. US and Iran hostilities escalated through July, with strikes near Tehran, oil above $72 and roughly $350M of crypto liquidations on the worst day. Higher oil lifts inflation expectations and yields, and BTC has been trading in lockstep with equities throughout. Buying a dip into an active risk-off is knife-catching. Requiring the close above 66,000 makes price prove the fear is fading first.
TRADE PLAN
Trigger: daily close above 66,000
Entry zone: 65,500 to 66,000, on the retest after the trigger
Stop loss: 63,200 (below the July higher-low structure)
TP1: 69,500 (+5.8% | 1.5R)
TP2: 72,000 (+9.6% | 2.5R)
TP3: 74,000 (+12.6% | 3.3R)
Invalidation: no daily close above 66,000 by July 31 and this expires unfilled, never entered. After entry, a daily close back below 63,200 kills it.
Every call on this account is logged and scored in public, the losses included.
Would you rather buy the range low and wear the breakdown risk, or pay up for the close above 66,000? 👇
Follow for updates, posted on this idea as it plays out. 🔔
Not financial advice. Trade your own plan and manage risk. Long 
ETHUSDT: Method B Entry With CVD Bull Div, TP1 OpenGate one, BOS confirmed bullish structure had already shifted near 1,840 before the pullback into the fib zone began.
Gate two, price swept the 0.236 to 0.295 band, tagging just above 1,800 before reversing. What sets this version apart is the CVD Bull Div marked directly on the sweep: price pushed toward a lower low while cumulative volume delta failed to confirm it, printing a higher low instead. That's order flow disagreeing with price at the exact moment the sweep completed, sellers pushing the wick lower without matching aggression underneath it.
Gate three, CHoCH confirmed once price reclaimed back through 0.382 and closed above it, the control bar turning both the sweep and the divergence into an actual trigger.
Method B Entry lands at the CVD Bull Div itself, the circled point on the chart, ahead of the full 0.382 reclaim. Under Continuation Acceleration Protocol, this is Method B at its clearest: footprint confirming direction before structure fully closes the loop. CVD does not replace the structural read here, it confirms what the sweep was already suggesting, an entry earned by two signals agreeing rather than price alone.
SL sits below the sweep low, giving the position room for the technique's earlier entry point without getting stopped by continued downside noise.
TP1 sits well overhead, still open. Price is currently pushing toward it following the reclaim, but this remains a live setup, not a completed one.
Structure first, sweep second, order flow third, confirmation trailing right behind. Method B with CVD behind it trades earlier timing for tighter risk, backed by evidence rather than just level location.
Epictetus said circumstances don't make the person, they reveal them. The CVD divergence revealed sellers had less behind that wick than the price action alone suggested. 
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ETH | Ethereum | DCA | Patience Before the Next MoveFirst of all, this analysis simply shows where Ethereum could move next. I'm not saying this is exactly what will happen.
Ethereum has now formed a very strong support zone, so I'm no longer sure it has enough momentum to move much lower.
The Elliott Wave structure also appears to be complete. (The Elliott Wave count was done by my friend @ovi_di he's the Elliott Wave expert.)
So, what's next?
I duplicated the trendlines, and you can see how price reacted after touching the second one. There are also several bearish continuation patterns on the chart, which makes me think the macro structure still looks bearish, at least for now.
At the moment, it feels like many market participants have already built their positions. As always, liquidity tends to be taken from both above and below. I know it's a cliché, but that's often how the market behaves.
I don't know the exact direction from here, and neither does anyone else. The main point of this analysis is that if Ethereum moves lower, the yellow zones are my preferred DCA accumulation areas and, in my opinion, would offer an excellent long-term buying opportunity.
Good luck everyone! 🍀📈 
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