XAUUSD: 4,440 Caps, 4,280 Decides Next XAUUSD: 4,440 Caps, 4,280 Decides Next
Market Context
Gold is moving sideways near the weekly low after testing the 4,300 area, while the market waits for the next US CPI report.
The US Dollar remains supported after stronger PPI inflation data, even as Middle East tensions and higher oil prices keep the market cautious. This creates a difficult environment for gold: safe-haven demand may still appear, but higher inflation pressure and stronger USD momentum can limit upside recovery.
For now, gold is not showing a clean bullish reversal. The market is still trading under short-term bearish pressure.
Technical Structure
Gold remains below the descending trendline, and the latest recovery attempt has been weak.
Price failed to reclaim the 4,410 - 4,440 resistance area and is now trading around 4,346. This keeps the short-term structure bearish, especially after the previous breakdown from the consolidation range.
The chart shows that sellers are still defending the upper structure. Any rebound into 4,410 - 4,440 may attract another bearish reaction if buyers cannot break above the trendline with strength.
The key support below is 4,280 - 4,310. This is the main decision zone for buyers. If gold reacts strongly from this area, a short-term recovery back toward 4,360 - 4,410 is possible.
But if 4,280 breaks clearly, the downside pressure can expand, and gold may continue lower toward 4,240 and 4,200.
Key Levels
Current Price: 4,346
Main Resistance Zone: 4,410 - 4,440
Descending Trendline Resistance: Around 4,400 - 4,420
Key Support / Bullish Reaction Zone: 4,280 - 4,310
Lower Downside Target: 4,240
Extended Bearish Target: 4,200
Major HTF Supply: 4,600 - 4,650
Bullish Recovery: Above 4,440
Bearish Continuation: Below 4,280
Trading Plan
Primary Sell Scenario
Entry: 4,410 - 4,440 after bearish confirmation
SL: Above 4,465
TP: 4,360 / 4,310 / 4,280
Condition: Price rebounds into the main resistance zone but fails to break above the descending trendline. If sellers defend this area, the bearish structure remains valid.
Breakdown Sell
Entry: Below 4,280 after breakdown and retest
SL: Above 4,320
TP: 4,240 / 4,200 / 4,160
Condition: Gold loses the key support zone and cannot reclaim it. This would confirm that selling pressure is expanding below the weekly decision area.
Buy Reaction Scenario
Entry: 4,280 - 4,310 after strong bullish confirmation
SL: Below 4,250
TP: 4,360 / 4,410 / 4,440
Condition: Price must show a clear reaction from the key support zone. This is only a reaction buy, not a full bullish reversal unless gold reclaims 4,440.
Bullish Recovery Scenario
Entry: Above 4,440 after breakout and retest
SL: Below 4,400
TP: 4,480 / 4,520 / 4,600
Condition: Buyers must break the descending trendline and hold above the main resistance zone. Only then does the bearish pressure start to weaken.
Overall Bias
Gold is still bearish in the short term while price remains below 4,410 - 4,440.
The current structure suggests that rebounds may still face selling pressure unless buyers can reclaim the trendline and hold above 4,440. Until then, the market remains vulnerable to another move lower.
The most important area now is 4,280 - 4,310. If buyers defend it, gold may create a technical rebound. If it breaks, the next downside targets are 4,240 and 4,200.
Best approach: do not chase the market in the middle. Wait for either a confirmed rejection from 4,410 - 4,440 or a strong reaction around 4,280 - 4,310.
Will gold defend 4,280 and recover, or will sellers break the support and push price into a deeper decline?
Futures market
XAUUSD 4346 sweep — 4500 trap next XAUUSD 4346 sweep — 4500 trap next
That sweep into discount is the whole story.
Gold got hit hard after PPI and oil pressure. Fair. Sellers had the reason. Price dropped back near the weekly low around 4,310 and everyone started leaning bearish again.
But look at the reaction.
Price tapped the Discount PD Array / SSL sweep zone around 4,295 - 4,322 and bounced. That is not random. That is the kind of area where smart money checks if sellers are late and overextended.
Now gold is around 4,346. Still not clean bullish freedom. But the downside push is slowing.
Main bias is bullish recovery while gold holds above 4,322 - 4,295.
The first problem is the small FVG around 4,380 - 4,392. If price reclaims that, buyers can push toward 4,444. Above 4,444, the real trap is higher: 4,485 - 4,510. That premium zone is where I expect a bigger reaction.
So yeah, I like the bounce. But I don’t want to chase it in the middle.
Trading scenario:
Buy idea only if gold holds above 4,322 and reclaims 4,392 with clean candles.
Entry zone: 4,322 - 4,392 after confirmation
Deeper buy zone: 4,295 - 4,322 if price sweeps again and reclaims
Stop loss: below 4,285
TP1: 4,392
TP2: 4,444
TP3: 4,485 - 4,510
No reclaim, no chase. Simple.
If gold breaks hard below 4,285, this bounce idea is cooked. Then sellers can drag price deeper and the weekly low sweep becomes failure, not accumulation.
For now, I’m reading this as SSL sweep first, discount reaction second, 4,500 premium trap waiting.
You think gold reclaims 4,392 first, or sweeps 4,322 one more time?
XAUUSD — 4,300 Sweep, 4,505 Next Test XAUUSD — 4,300 Sweep, 4,505 Next Test
Gold is sitting in a very interesting place now, because after that sharp push into the 4,300 area, price did not continue collapsing. It swept lower, paused, and started to breathe back upward, almost like the market was checking whether sellers had already taken enough liquidity before allowing buyers to respond.
The bigger structure is still carrying damage from the previous breakdown. Gold lost the earlier range, moved inside a bearish channel, and the RSI tone has already turned weaker. Fundamentally, the USD is still supported after stronger PPI pressure, and traders are waiting for CPI, so volatility can easily become aggressive. But from an SMC view, I do not want to ignore what price is doing at the lows.
My main view is bullish for a corrective recovery while gold holds above the 4,300 - 4,320 demand area. The reason is simple: price already hunted the lower side, failed to extend cleanly, and is now trying to climb back toward the broken structure. If buyers can keep defending this base, the first magnet is the 4,450 - 4,460 FVG reaction zone. That is where the market may test whether this bounce is real or just a weak pullback.
If 4,450 is reclaimed, then 4,505.777 becomes the key liquidity and breakout level. Above that, gold may open a wider recovery path toward the major HTF liquidity target around 4,634.176.
This bullish recovery idea becomes weak only if gold loses 4,300 again and holds below it. If that happens, the market would tell me sellers are still controlling the story.
Key price zones to watch
Current reaction area: 4,330 - 4,345
Main demand / recovery base: 4,300 - 4,320
First upside reaction zone: 4,450 - 4,460
Key liquidity / breakout level: 4,505.777
Major HTF liquidity target: 4,634.176
Bearish invalidation zone: clean break and hold below 4,300
Do you think gold has already swept enough liquidity near 4,300, or does CPI still have one more downside trap before buyers take control?
XAUUSD 1H Chart AnalysisThe chart shows Gold reacting from a 4,280–4,305 demand zone. Price recently bounced from this area and is now around 4,345, suggesting a possible short-term recovery.
Key levels:
Demand: 4,280–4,305
Current area: around 4,345
Resistance: 4,410–4,430
Major supply: 4,410–4,430
The chart suggests a possible step-by-step recovery toward the supply zone, but price needs to hold above the recent demand area and build higher lows. A rejection from 4,410–4,430 could bring another pullback toward lower support.
TradingView recommends that ideas explain the reasoning behind the view, remain original, avoid promotional content, and avoid exaggerated or misleading claims.
TradingView Idea — Ready to Post
Title:
XAUUSD: Gold Rebounds From Key Demand Zone
Description:
Gold is showing a recovery on the 1-hour chart after reacting strongly from the 4,280–4,305 demand zone.
Price is currently trading around 4,345. If the recovery continues and price forms higher lows, the next important area to watch is the 4,410–4,430 supply zone.
A sustained move above this supply area could indicate further upside, while a clear rejection may lead to another pullback toward lower support.
Key levels:
Support: 4,280–4,305
Resistance: 4,410–4,430
This analysis is based on market structure, price action, and key supply-demand areas. It is for educational purposes only and not financial advice.
Bias: Short-term bullish, while price holds above the demand zone.
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PPI hits gold — will CPI cause next sell-off?Gold has continued to follow the bearish bias as expected, with price breaking lower after the stronger-than-expected U.S. PPI reinforced expectations for a more hawkish Federal Reserve. Gold is currently trading around 4,347, below the descending trendline and after failing to reclaim the 4,375–4,390 Demand + FVG zone. The H4 structure therefore remains dominated by lower highs and lower lows.
The macro pressure is becoming even stronger. August U.S. PPI increased 0.4% m/m and 5.4% y/y, while jobless claims remained relatively stable. Following the data, markets raised the probability of a 25bp Fed hike next week to around 70–71%, while the U.S. 10Y yield moved close to 5% and the USD remained firm. This combination is clearly unfavorable for non-yielding Gold.
Today is therefore the real macro decision point: U.S. CPI is due later today, with consensus around 0.4% m/m, 3.4% y/y, while Core CPI is expected at 0.2% m/m and 2.4% y/y. If CPI comes in hotter than expected, the market could further price a Fed hike, pushing USD and yields higher and creating another downside impulse for Gold. Conversely, softer CPI could trigger a sharp short-covering rebound, especially because Gold has already fallen heavily this week.
Technically, 4,375–4,390 is now the first important recovery zone. If Gold rebounds into this area but fails to reclaim it, sellers could continue toward 4,300–4,320, followed by the larger 4,260–4,280 Supply + FVG zone. A sustained H4 close back above 4,400–4,420 would be the first indication that bearish momentum is weakening.
Bearish Scenario — Preferred Bias
If CPI confirms persistent inflation and Gold remains below 4,375–4,390, the current rebound should be treated as corrective. A rejection here could accelerate the move toward 4,300–4,320, with 4,260–4,280 as the next major downside zone.
Bullish Scenario
If CPI is softer than expected and USD/yields reverse lower, Gold could reclaim 4,375–4,390 and attempt to recover toward 4,420–4,440. A stronger H4 breakout above the descending trendline would be required before considering a meaningful bullish reversal.
Today’s key catalyst:
🔴 U.S. CPI — 19:30 VN
🔴 Core CPI
🔴 UoM Consumer Sentiment / Inflation Expectations — 21:00 VN
The setup is therefore quite clear: Gold has already reacted negatively to PPI; CPI now determines whether this becomes another leg lower or a short-term relief rebound. Given the current H4 structure and elevated Fed-hike expectations, Lucas continues to favor the bearish side until resistance is reclaimed.
BIAS: BEARISH — CPI COULD TRIGGER THE NEXT LEG DOWN.
GOLD 4330 - CPI WILL DETERMINE NEXT MOVEGold is holding near the lower boundary of the rising structure after the recent pullback, with price currently consolidating around the 4320–4330 area. The market is approaching a key macro catalyst, with the U.S. August CPI scheduled for release on September 11 at 8:30 a.m. ET. The expectation is for CPI to trigger a strong directional move, while the technical structure continues to favor the bullish side if support holds.
The main scenario is to wait for the CPI-driven volatility to provide confirmation. If Gold holds the 4310–4330 support zone and breaks above the descending trendline, the recovery could accelerate toward 4380–4400, followed by 4500–4520. A clean breakout above 4400 would strengthen the bullish structure and confirm continuation. On the downside, a sustained break below the rising trendline would invalidate the immediate bullish setup and expose the deeper 4230–4250 support zone.
📍 KEY LEVELS:
🔹 4310–4330
Immediate support and rising trendline. Preferred area to monitor for a bullish reaction.
🔹 4230–4250
Major deeper support if CPI volatility pushes Gold lower.
🔹 4380–4400
Immediate resistance and first breakout area.
🔹 4500–4520
Major resistance and primary upside target.
✅ PREFERRED SCENARIO:
Gold holds the rising structure around 4310–4330. CPI triggers volatility and bullish reaction. Break above the descending trendline → BUY confirmation. Recovery above 4380–4400 → bullish momentum strengthens. Breakout above 4400 → target 4500–4520. Sustained break below the rising structure → reassess the bullish bias.
BIAS: 🟢 BULLISH — Gold remains supported by the rising structure, while CPI could provide the catalyst for the next expansion. Prefer waiting for the CPI reaction + technical breakout confirmation rather than entering during pre-news consolidation.
XAUUSD — 4,440 Is the Bearish Gate XAUUSD — 4,440 Is the Bearish Gate
Gold is trying to recover above 4,400, but the chart still feels like a market walking uphill with sellers waiting at every step.
After the strong drop from the upper structure, price moved into a wide bearish channel and has not fully escaped it yet. The bounce from the weekly low was important, but it only brought gold back into the middle of the correction, not into clear bullish control. Right now, price is sitting around 4,408, under the FVG and below the trendline rejection area, so I still see this as a fragile recovery.
For newer traders, this is the key idea: when price breaks down hard, the first bounce often looks attractive, but if that bounce cannot reclaim the imbalance above, it may simply be the market breathing before sellers step in again.
My main view is still bearish while gold stays below 4,440 - 4,460. This area is the first real gate. If price pushes into that FVG and rejects, I would expect sellers to guide gold back toward 4,320 first, then the deeper liquidity zone around 4,299 - 4,282.
The PPI and CPI data can bring strong volatility, so I would not treat every spike as a true reversal. The cleaner bullish argument only appears if gold breaks above 4,460, escapes the bearish channel, and holds above the mitigation zone. Until then, rallies still look vulnerable.
Key price zones to watch
Current reaction area: 4,400 - 4,410
Main FVG / rejection zone: 4,440 - 4,460
Bearish confirmation zone: rejection below 4,440 - 4,460
First downside target: 4,320 - 4,300
Main liquidity target: 4,299.679 - 4,282.969
Premium sell reaction zone: 4,600 - 4,630
Invalidation: clean reclaim and hold above 4,460
Do you see this move above 4,400 as real strength, or is gold only returning into the FVG before another sell-side sweep?
XAUUSD 30m: Intraday Consolidation & Key Rejection LevelsGold (XAUUSD) is currently moving in a tight consolidation range around the 4,334 mark on the 30-minute timeframe, following a recent downward push. Here are the key levels I am watching for the next intraday move:
Upside Resistance (Red Zones):
I have marked a series of distinct resistance hurdles above the current price action at 4,363.19, 4,376.33, 4,391.73, and 4,411.94 . If buyers can force a breakout above the immediate local resistance, these levels will act as primary targets and potential reversal zones.
Downside Support (Green Zones):
If the price breaks downward from this tight consolidation, the immediate lower bounds will be tested before potentially dropping to the solid structural support block marked in green down at 4,270.41 .
Trade Bias / Strategy:
Neutral for now. The market is waiting for a catalyst. I am waiting for a confirmed 30m candle close outside of this immediate tight range before committing to a clear directional bias.
XAUUSD/GOLD 1H BUY LIMIT PROJECTION 10.09.26XAUUSD / GOLD — 1H Buy-Limit Setup
Chart date: 11 September 2026
The idea shown is to wait for a pullback into support, then look for a possible bullish continuation toward the upper resistance zone. It is a projected scenario—not confirmation that gold will follow the arrow.
Why the chart suggests a possible recovery
1. Price has broken above the descending trendline.
After the decline toward 4,300–4,305, a strong green candle recovered much of the previous selling move and crossed above the drawn downtrend line. My reading is that this shows an improvement in short-term buying momentum, although it does not establish a complete trend reversal by itself.
2. The proposed pullback area combines two technical levels.
Your chart labels the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 4,325.71, close to the horizontal level around 4,322–4,323. That overlap is the main reason behind the proposed buy-limit area. The Fibonacci value is taken from your annotation; its anchor points are not clear enough to independently verify the calculation. Fibonacci retracements identify potential support and resistance—not
XAUUSD BEFORE CPI: Waiting for a Strong 4H Reversal | MFTC XAUUSD BEFORE CPI: Waiting for a Strong 4H Reversal | MFTC Analysis
In our previous analysis, we were looking for buying opportunities from the marked levels. However, XAUUSD was not strong enough to form the required I.R. on the 1H/30M timeframe, so the bullish confirmation never came. Price therefore continued lower.
Now, price is approaching the important MFTC reversal zones marked at the 150% and 200% areas.
According to MFTC Theory, when price reacts from a previously respected area, the probability of a reversal increases when price reaches these projected reversal zones.
🔎 My Plan Before CPI
I am not buying immediately.
I will wait for price to react from the marked reversal zone and then look for a strong 4H I.R. before considering a BUY.
CPI Scenario:
If XAUUSD sells off during CPI and reaches the reversal zone, I will watch for a strong reaction and confirmation.
Zone → Reaction → 4H I.R. → Confirmation → BUY
If there is no valid 4H I.R., there will be no trade.
For me, the priority is confirmation over prediction. I don't want to catch a falling market just because price has reached a demand/reversal area.
Until the 4H confirmation appears, I will simply wait and watch.
📌 Key Levels
150% Reversal Zone → First area to watch
200% Reversal Zone → Deeper reversal area
4H I.R. → Required confirmation before buying
CPI → Major volatility catalyst
MFTC Analysis | XAUUSD | Before CPI
Tags
#XAUUSD #Gold #GoldTrading #XAUUSDAnalysis #CPI #CPIData #CPIAnalysis #BeforeCPI #GoldAnalysis #ForexTrading #ForexAnalysis #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis #MFTC #MFTCTheory #TradingView #TradingViewIdeas #GoldSetup #GoldPrice #SmartMoney #MarketStructure #TradingSetup #DayTrading #IntradayTrading
XAUUSD 1H — SMC Market Analysis | Sep 11, 2026 | DISCIPLE-FX📊 XAUUSD 1H — SMC Market Analysis | Sep 11, 2026 | DISCIPLE-FX
🔹 Market Structure: Bearish (lower highs since ~4680 top; latest CHoCH → BOS sequence confirms continuation lower)
🔹 Key Support & Resistance:
Resistance: 4400–4440 (Key Zone/Equal-High) | 4480–4500 (UN-MEG-Supply) | 4560–4600 (major Key Zone)
Support: 4311 (current) | 4240–4280 (Demand Zone) | 4000–4120 (deep Key Zone/Demand)
🔹 Liquidity Zones:
Equal-High liquidity resting near 4440 (retail buy stops)
Sell-side liquidity building below current price toward the 4240–4280 demand zone
🔹 SMC Signals:
BOS to the downside confirmed structure shift bearish
CHoCH formed after the bounce off BOS low, into the Equal-High — bearish trap for late buyers
OTE/POI zone: 4340–4360 (optimal trade entry on retracement, aligned with premium of the last leg down)
No clean unfilled FVG visible on this timeframe currently — price has been fairly linear
🎯 Entries:
SELL: retest of OTE/POI 4340–4360 or a deeper pullback into 4400–4440 (Key Zone/Equal-High)
BUY (counter-trend/scalp only): reaction from 4240–4280 Demand Zone
🛑 Risk Management (Sell setup from OTE):
SL: 4390 (~50–60 pips above entry, above CHoCH structure)
TP1: 4280 | TP2: 4240 | TP3: 4120
R:R ≈ 1:1.5 → 1:3+
🛑 Risk Management (Buy setup from Demand):
SL: 4200 (~60–80 pips below zone)
TP1: 4340 | TP2: 4400 | TP3: 4440
R:R ≈ 1:2 → 1:3
📈 Bias: Bearish 65% | Bullish bounce/reversal 35%
⚠️ Retail Trap: Chasing the bounce off 4311 expecting a full reversal — without a confirmed bullish CHoCH on a higher timeframe, this is likely a liquidity grab before continuation lower
🧠 Beginner Note: Structure is still making lower highs and lower lows — smart money is likely selling into rallies (like the 4400 zone) rather than chasing the current dip, unless price proves itself by reclaiming 4440 with strength.
✅ Final Verdict: SELL on retest of 4340–4360 / WAIT for confirmation at demand — Confidence: 6.5/10
If price stays below 4440, my bias remains bearish. 🔴
(Educational chart analysis only — not financial advice.)
XAUUSD — H1 FVG Retest, Sell Continuation
Market Context
Gold is trading around $4,387 after rebounding from the recent sell-side liquidity sweep near the lower part of the H1 descending channel. The recovery produced a short-term bullish MSS, but price remains below the broader bearish delivery path and key overhead supply.
Macro conditions remain mixed for Gold. Strong August payrolls lifted expectations for a September Fed rate hike to around 60%, while oil prices near $100 are adding fresh inflation concerns ahead of PPI and CPI. At the same time, escalating U.S.–Iran tensions and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz continue to provide safe-haven support, creating an environment where geopolitical demand may limit downside but higher-rate expectations restrict upside.
SMC View
The broader H1 order flow remains bearish inside the descending channel. The recent SSL sweep and bullish MSS explain the corrective rebound, but they have not yet invalidated the higher-timeframe bearish structure.
The $4,405–$4,418 H1 Bearish FVG is the main decision zone. A retracement into this imbalance would allow price to mitigate inefficient delivery before sellers potentially resume control. The Premium Bearish OB near $4,438 remains the higher structural barrier.
Main Trading Scenario
Condition:
Gold retraces into the $4,405–$4,418 H1 Bearish FVG and forms a clear bearish rejection. A lower-timeframe bearish MSS or CHOCH is required before entry.
Entry: $4,405–$4,418 after bearish confirmation
SL: Above $4,438 and the rejection structure
TP1: $4,338–$4,350
TP2: $4,303–$4,317
TP3: $4,291.943
Key Zones to Watch
Current price: $4,386.500
Main sell zone: $4,405–$4,418
Premium Bearish OB: $4,438.013
Internal SSL: $4,338–$4,350
Main target: $4,303–$4,317
Invalidation: Acceptance above $4,438
Confirmation: Bearish rejection with MSS or CHOCH
Prime Gold View
The sell bias remains valid while Gold stays below the H1 Bearish FVG and Premium OB. The preferred plan is to wait for corrective repricing into $4,405–$4,418 rather than chase price near current demand.
If sellers defend the FVG, Gold could rotate back through Internal SSL and continue toward the Deep Discount Demand near $4,310. Acceptance above $4,438 would weaken the immediate bearish setup.
No confirmation, no trade.
Gold Aiming Bullish setup towards 4639 and 4840
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD is currently consolidating beneath a descending trendline resistance, while a strong horizontal resistance is also sitting around 4,443.77 .
The price is approaching a critical decision zone. A confirmed breakout above 4,443.77 , together with a break of the descending trendline, could open the way for a larger bullish move.
I am bullish on Gold because of:
Descending trendline has been acting as dynamic resistance.
4,443.77 is the key horizontal resistance.
Price is compressing between the descending trendline and rising support, creating a potential breakout structure.
A clean breakout can release the accumulated pressure and potentially push Gold toward 4,656.
RSI is around the 50 level, leaving room for momentum to expand if the breakout occurs.
on Top of all the above, an ABCD formation also in process
I would not chase Gold inside the consolidation. Let the market prove the breakout first.
Trade Setup:
Buy Stop: 4,443.77
SL: 4330.80
TP1: 4639.72
TP2: 4840
I will put 2 trades with buy stop at 4,443.77 . Both SL will be at 4330.80 and aiming 4639.72 as TP1 for my 1st trade and 4840 as TP2 for my 2nd trade. will move the SL to Breakeven after TP1 hits.
BUY GOLDIn my opinion gold is createing higher high levels and it will come again retest at level 78.60% after that level if market showes rejection candle daily time frame
it could indicate a potential reversal or a pullback in the market. This might lead to a downward movement or consolidation before the price attempts to climb higher again. Traders should watch for confirmation signals to assess the next direction of the trend.
ENTRY :- 4121.23
SL :-3884.18
TP :- 5462.05
XAU/USD - Breakout Control, Bulls Eye 4.550OANDA:XAUUSD is attempting to break the descending trendline after buyers defended the 4,325–4,390 buy zone. Price is also recovering around the Ichimoku structure, suggesting bearish momentum is starting to weaken.
If Gold can hold above the trendline and 4,390, I favor continuation toward:
🎯 Target: 4,550
Macro Market: Gold is slightly stronger today as a softer US Dollar provides support. However, Brent above $100 and the US 10-year yield near 4.84% are keeping inflation and Fed-hike risks elevated. Markets are therefore focused on upcoming US inflation data, which could determine whether this breakout gets real follow-through.
A sustained H2 move below 4,325 would weaken the bullish scenario.
AURICVERSE View: buyers have defended the floor; now they need to prove the trendline has truly changed sides. Hold the breakout, and 4,550 becomes the next level on my radar.
H2 Bullish Reclaim Toward Major Supply
XAUUSD is trading around 4,413 after recovering from the recent 4,350 area and compressing between the descending resistance trendline and rising short-term support. Price is now approaching the first resistance zone, making the next reclaim especially important.
Gold gained more than 1% on Wednesday as the U.S. dollar remained soft, while escalating Middle East tensions pushed Brent above $100. However, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed toward 4.84%, and markets are pricing roughly a 60% probability of a Fed hike next week, keeping the macro backdrop highly sensitive to inflation data.
The next catalysts are U.S. PPI today, September 10, at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by CPI on September 11 at 8:30 a.m. ET. Both releases could materially shift Fed expectations and create sharp volatility in XAUUSD.
Technical View
The broader structure remains below the descending resistance line, but short-term price action is showing signs of recovery.
The immediate decision area is 4,415–4,445 Resistance. A clean reclaim and successful retest of this zone would strengthen the bullish structure and support continuation toward the next supply.
The first major upside objective sits around 4,490–4,515 Supply Zone.
If buyers maintain momentum above that area, the larger target becomes the 4,600–4,635 Major Resistance / Supply Zone.
Below current price, the 4,285–4,310 Demand Zone / Strong Support remains the major structural support on the chart.
Key Zones
Current Price: 4,412.820
Resistance / Reclaim: 4,415–4,445
Supply Zone: 4,490–4,515
Major Resistance / Supply: 4,600–4,635
Major Demand / Strong Support: 4,285–4,310
Trading Plan
Buy Priority: confirmed reclaim of 4,415–4,445
Condition: wait for price to break above resistance and confirm the zone as support through a retest, bullish rejection or higher-low formation.
TP1: 4,490–4,515
TP2: 4,600–4,635
Invalidation: failure to hold the reclaimed resistance structure would weaken the immediate bullish continuation setup.
Important Note
PPI and CPI are the main short-term risks. With oil above $100 and Treasury yields elevated, hotter inflation could quickly strengthen Fed-hike expectations and pressure gold.
Avoid chasing a breakout during the first reaction to the data. Confirmation after the liquidity sweep remains more important than the initial candle.
Buy View
The preferred scenario is not to buy directly below resistance.
A confirmed breakout above 4,415–4,445, followed by a controlled retest, would provide the cleaner bullish setup. If buyers establish acceptance above this area, 4,490–4,515 becomes the next liquidity objective.
Final View
Gold is attempting to transition from consolidation into a stronger recovery phase, but 4,415–4,445 remains the key gate.
The main scenario is a bullish reclaim and retest of resistance, followed by expansion toward 4,490–4,515 and potentially 4,600–4,635.
Can gold reclaim 4,445 before PPI and CPI trigger the next major expansion?
WaveTalks -COMEX GOLD: The Sharp Fall 4479 to 4355's- What Next?Comex Gold
1:42 am / 11th Sep 2026 (Indian Standard Time)
Last @ $4364
"Is Gold teasing before a deep dive? Well, only the next few candles will tell. Did you get the red candles? Like there was no floor... This is exactly what unfolded and is called a Thrust (Deep Dive)."The quote above highlights the real-time breakdown flagged earlier on the WaveTalks social media channels at 11:29 am on 10th September 2026.
Already completed 1st Bigger Impulse
$3963 to $4755 & Fall from $4755 to $4329 - Discussed via Social Media Handle.. This analysis continuation from $4329 lows.
⚠️ DISCLAIMER:
This analysis is for educational purposes only. No solicitation to buy or sell.
Primary Wave Scenario - ABC
( Wave-A Blue Color Done at $4329.2...Wave-B Blue Color unfolding as Smaller Wave - abc in black...Once Wave-B completes on top close to $4590-4600... Expect Fall in Wave-C Blue Color )
Alternate Wave Scenario- ???
Gold futures are currently completing a sharp thrust lower in a complex Wave-B correction down to the $4,350-4355 area before embarking on a bullish reversal toward the $4,600 region as a possible scenario.
🟢 1. CURRENT ELLIOTT WAVE STRUCTURE 🟢
• The initial impulsive rally from the $4,329 bottom completed Wave- (A) Black at the $4,558 peak.
• Since that top, price action has been carving out a choppy and messy complex Wave-B structure - which is ongoing ...current low is 4355's ( 12:54 pm /11th Sep 2026 / Indian Standard Time )
• This corrective wave featured a connecting contracting triangle pattern labeled sub-waves a through e.
• The sudden drop from the $4,479 sub-wave e peak represents a classic post-triangle thrust.
• This floorless decline is rapidly flushing out weak longs to finalize the corrective phase.
🟢 2. PROJECTED UPSIDE TRAJECTORY 🟢
• Once the current downward thrust concludes near the $4,350-4365 support zone, a bullish reversal is expected next.
• This upcoming advance will develop as a major impulsive Wave-C leg to the upside.
• The multi-session bullish recovery will officially trigger once price decisively breaks back above the $4,410-$4,420 trigger zone.
• The primary upside targets reside at the previous structural high of $4,479 - 4,489 zone and the major resistance cluster between $4,550 and $4,560.
• Extending the wave relationships suggests the rally could ultimately reach a peak within the $4,590-$4,600 terminal window.
🟢 3. RISK MANAGEMENT AND KEY LEVELS 🟢
Trading this layout requires strict adherence to defined risk parameters at every major pivot zone.
• Immediate Downside Support: $4,350-4365 zone
• Bullish Breakout Confirmation: $4,410-$4,420
• Intermediate Resistance Targets: $4,479 - 4489
• Major Supply Cluster: $4,550-$4,560
• Terminal Target Zone: $4,590-$4,600
🟢 4. NEXT WEEK HORIZON 🟢
• As the broader blue Wave-B peak nears completion close to the $4,600 level next week, buyers must aggressively secure profits.
• A major structural top is anticipated to form inside that high-altitude supply zone.
• Reaching this terminal zone will complete the larger-degree corrective bounce and set the stage for a bearish reversal.
• Traders must exercise extreme caution at those highs of $4590-4600 zone (If unfolds) because the subsequent leg will unfold as a deep, aggressive liquidation phase in blue Wave-C.
WaveTalks
Market Whispers! Can you hear them?
XAUUSD: Supply Zone Rejection & Bearish Setup Target ?Market Structure & Technical Breakdown
Asset / Timeframe: XAU/USD (Gold) — 1-Hour Chart (1h)
Trend & Context: Following an earlier Break of Structure (BOS) and subsequent Market Structure Shift (MSS) off the local Pivot Point (~4,310–4,320), price expanded aggressively to sweep Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) around 4,510–4,520.
Current Setup: Price has dropped into a substantial Supply Zone (4,440 – 4,490) and is showing signs of exhaustion and lower-timeframe distribution.
Trade Strategy & Levels
Bias: Bearish / Short from Supply Zone
Entry Area: Continuous rejections inside the 4,440 – 4,460 Supply Zone boundary.
Take Profit (Target): 4,340 (Testing key liquidity/swing low demand).
Stop Loss (Risk Management): Above the Supply Zone high (~4,495 – 4,510), depending on individual risk tolerance.
Execution Plan
Look for price to retest the lower edge of the 1H Supply Zone before distributing lower toward the main target at 4,340. Exercise proper risk management and wait for confirmation on lower timeframes (e.g., 5m/15m MSS) before taking entries.






















