KenKem MVP — XAUUSD US session scenario map (2026-07-21 12:00 UTOANDA:XAUUSD — pre-US-session read from my KenKem Master Volume Profile (MVP) indicator & strategy.
CONTEXT
Read taken at 12:00 UTC, about 30 minutes before the New York session opens. Price near 4057 is holding above VWAP (4044.5) and above the 100/200 EMAs, so the higher-timeframe structure is still constructive. But the 25 EMA at 4060.5 has capped the last two attempts, and price is sitting right on the M5 Point of Control at 4057.4 — a volume magnet, which is why it keeps getting pulled back to the same handle. The near-price net-volume read is leaning to the sell side, which is the honest counter-argument to the bullish structure. Net: balanced, with a mild upward tilt.
KEY ZONES
Resistance / supply: 4061 (EMA25 cluster), then 4065 (M5 value-area high)
Support / demand: 4048.9 (M5 value-area low), then 4045 (VWAP + 200 EMA confluence)
Point of Control (volume magnet): 4057.4
SCENARIOS (to watch — NOT signals)
Bullish: a 15m close above 4061 opens room toward 4065 then 4070 (structure above VWAP and the slower EMAs is intact).
Bearish: losing 4048.9 opens 4045 then 4038 (near-price net volume is already leaning to the sell side).
Range/unclear: stuck between 4048.9 and 4061 — stand aside until a decisive close.
Invalidation: a close below 4038 voids this map.
WHAT THE MVP TOOL IS SHOWING
The Master Volume Profile plots rolling value areas (VAH/VAL), the Point of Control, and a net-volume pressure read to locate where volume is building or drying up. This idea is the qualitative output of that tool; the strategy's internal thresholds, gating and entry/exit logic are not disclosed.
Built with the KenKem Master Volume Profile indicator & strategy.
Educational technical analysis, NOT financial advice. Trade your own plan and manage your risk. 
Long
Long 
Long
Long 
Long 
Short 
Long 
Education 
Long
XAUUSD daily analysis 21/07/2026Gold rose to a one-week high as investors bought on recent weakness while monitoring developments in the Middle East and their potential impact on inflation. Although oil prices eased slightly, ongoing geopolitical tensions continued to raise concerns over higher energy costs, which could keep inflation elevated and reinforce expectations of higher US interest rates. Since gold does not generate interest, a higher-rate environment may limit further gains. Still, the precious metal found support around the key $4,000 level, suggesting continued dip-buying, while uncertainty over the conflict and the Federal Reserve's policy outlook is likely to drive near-term price direction.
From a technical point of view, gold remains in a broader downtrend, with price continuing to trade below both the 50-day and 100-day SMAs, keeping the bearish structure intact. After failing to sustain a recovery above $4,150, the metal has returned toward the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting selling pressure remains dominant. The Stochastic oscillator has turned higher from oversold territory, indicating that short-term momentum is improving and could support a limited rebound. However, unless gold breaks above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $4,322, the recovery is likely to remain corrective. The Bollinger Bands have started to narrow, pointing to easing volatility after the recent decline, while stronger resistance is seen near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $4,532. Overall, the technical outlook remains bearish unless buyers reclaim these key resistance levels.
Disclaimer: The opinions in this article are personal to the writer and do not reflect those of Exness.
USOIL daily analysis 21/07/2026Oil prices edged lower after strong gains in the previous two sessions as traders balanced escalating tensions between the US and Iran with renewed diplomatic efforts to secure a ceasefire. Despite ongoing military strikes and retaliatory attacks, reports of proposals for a temporary halt in hostilities eased some supply concerns. However, risks remain elevated as threats to key shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea continue to fuel fears of potential supply disruptions. With global oil inventories already tight, any disruption to maritime infrastructure could trigger renewed price volatility.
From a technical perspective, crude oil has extended its recovery but is now showing signs of losing momentum after failing to sustain a move above the recent highs near $84. Price has climbed above the 50-day SMA, indicating improving short-term sentiment, but it remains below the 100-day SMA, suggesting the broader trend is still cautiously bearish. The Bollinger Bands have begun to widen, reflecting increased volatility during the recent rally, while the Stochastic oscillator remains in overbought territory and is beginning to turn lower, pointing to the risk of a short-term pullback. A break above $84 would strengthen the bullish case and expose the 100-day SMA around $87.60, whereas failure to hold above the 50-day SMA could trigger a corrective move back toward the $76–78 support zone.
Disclaimer: The opinions in this article are personal to the writer and do not reflect those of Exness.
Long
Long 
Long 
Long 
Long 
What Does the Relative Strength Index Indicate for Gold Prices?Gold continues to hold above the key support area near $3,950 per ounce, following several positive rebounds over recent trading sessions. However, from a technical perspective, this resilience and the ability to remain above the psychological $4,000 level may not yet be sufficient to confirm a stronger bullish outlook.
Meanwhile, the $4,200 per ounce area continues to represent one of the most significant technical resistance levels. A break above this zone could improve the technical outlook, particularly if it coincides with the completion of a double-bottom pattern.
This view is further supported by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which remains below the 50 level, a threshold commonly associated with positive momentum. Since March, the RSI has only managed to move above this level on two brief occasions, without sustaining the move.
As a result, the probability of improving technical momentum may increase if the following conditions are met:
Price breaks above the previous resistance area near $4,200 per ounce.
The RSI rises and holds above the 50 level.
Note: Meeting these conditions does not guarantee the continuation of any trend. Rather, it may increase the probability of a shift in momentum based on the current technical landscape.
