GOLD Short-Term Long: Don't Chase, Wait for the RetestLooking at the multi-timeframe picture here, we have a really interesting setup developing, but patience is going to be key.
The macro 4H trend has obviously been heavy to the downside, but the lower timeframes just flashed a massive momentum shift. On the 15m, we got a textbook manipulation phase—price swept the sell-side liquidity below the 3,980 lows, trapped the early shorts, and then violently exploded upward, breaking local structure.
Right now, price is completely parabolic. Chasing longs up here is just pure FOMO and terrible risk-to-reward. Instead, I’m looking to step in on the first major pullback. Since that upward leg was so aggressive, previous resistance should now act as a demand base.
The Gameplan:
Entry Zone: Waiting for a dip back into the 4,025 – 4,035 area (the 15m breaker/origin of the move).
Stop Loss: Hard close below 3,995. If we lose that prior swing low, the bullish thesis is dead.
Targets: TP1 at local highs (~4,065) to secure some risk, leaving a runner for TP2 into the deep 4H supply zone around 4,090 - 4,115.
Execution (Wait for LTF Confirmation):
Since we are trading counter to the heavy 4H downtrend, I am not using blind limit orders. When price taps our 4,025-4,035 zone, I will drop down to the 3m or 5m chart. I want to see a clear Change of Character (ChoCh) or strong rejection wicks to prove buyers are actually stepping in before I pull the trigger. No confirmation = no trade.
When is this setup invalidated?
If price ignores the pullback entirely and just keeps ripping straight into our higher timeframe supply zone (4,090+), this setup is canceled. If the market hits our ultimate target before giving us an entry, the trade is dead and we wait for a new structure to form. Don't force it.
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XAGUSD: Double-bottom structure opens the way for a rise to 59.0On the H1 timeframe, XAGUSD is completing a double-bottom pattern, indicating that selling pressure has significantly eased following a period of correction. The price has just broken above the short-term resistance zone and is currently holding above the moving averages, reflecting improving bullish momentum. The 57.30 level now serves as the immediate support and a critical area for buyers to defend should a pullback occur.
According to the chart scenario, the price may retest the 57.30 level before extending its upward momentum. If buying pressure holds this area and a confirmation signal emerges, XAGUSD could target the 59.00 zone—a key area of liquidity and a notable supply zone on the H1 timeframe. Maintaining a structure of higher lows would reinforce the recovery trend.
Fundamentally, silver remains supported by expectations of rising industrial demand, particularly from the AI, electronics, and clean energy sectors. Although the US dollar and US bond yields continue to drive volatility in the precious metals complex, XAGUSD is demonstrating relative strength compared to gold, maintaining a positive short-term outlook.
Strategy: Prioritize BUY positions if the price holds above 57.30 and a bullish confirmation signal appears; target 59.00. The bullish scenario would be invalidated if the price closes an H1 candle below this support zone. 
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XAUUSD: Buyers Push, But Sellers Wait at 4,060 XAUUSD: Buyers Push, But Sellers Wait at 4,060
Market Context
Gold is recovering inside a short-term upward channel after reacting from the lower zone near the weekly bottom. Buyers are showing strength, but the market is not completely free yet.
Macro sentiment remains sensitive. US-Iran tensions can keep safe-haven flows active, while Fed expectations are still important for USD direction. Even if traders see a lower chance of an immediate Fed hike, the idea of a restrictive Fed later this year can still limit gold’s upside.
Key point: gold is bouncing, but the next test is the Seller’s Last Defense zone.
Technical Structure
Gold is trading around 4,044 after a strong rebound from the Smart Money Buy Zone. Price is moving inside a short-term bullish channel, supported by recent CHOCH and BOS signals.
The nearest resistance is 4,060 - 4,080. This is the Seller’s Last Defense area. If price reaches this zone and rejects, profit-taking or fresh selling pressure may appear.
The main support below is 4,000 - 4,010. This is the Bulls Must Hold zone. As long as price holds above this area, the recovery structure remains valid.
If 4,000 - 4,010 breaks, gold may return toward the Smart Money Buy Zone around 3,960 - 3,990.
Key Levels
Current Price: 4,044
Seller’s Last Defense: 4,060 - 4,080
Bulls Must Hold: 4,000 - 4,010
Smart Money Buy Zone: 3,960 - 3,990
Channel Resistance: 4,060 - 4,080
Bullish Confirmation: Above 4,080
Bearish Risk: Below 4,000
Trading Plan
Buy Scenario
Entry: 4,000 - 4,010
SL: Below 3,960
TP: 4,044 / 4,060 / 4,080
Condition: Price must pull back into the Bulls Must Hold zone and show bullish confirmation. Buyers need to defend the lower channel and keep forming higher lows.
Buy Breakout
Entry: Above 4,080
SL: Below 4,044
TP: 4,100 / 4,120 / 4,140
Condition: Price must break above the Seller’s Last Defense zone with strength, retest successfully, and hold above 4,080. Avoid chasing the first breakout candle without confirmation.
Sell Scenario
Entry: 4,060 - 4,080
SL: Above 4,100
TP: 4,044 / 4,010 / 4,000
Condition: Price reaches the Seller’s Last Defense zone and gets rejected. Bearish reaction from this area could trigger a pullback toward the main support zone.
Breakdown Sell
Entry: Below 4,000
SL: Above 4,025
TP: 3,990 / 3,960 / 3,940
Condition: Bulls Must Hold fails, retest is rejected, and bearish momentum continues. This would confirm that the recovery channel is weakening.
Overall Bias
Gold is recovering, but the market is now approaching an important resistance area. The short-term structure remains constructive while price holds above 4,000 - 4,010.
The key decision zone is 4,060 - 4,080. A breakout above this area can extend the recovery. A rejection may send gold back toward 4,010 or even 3,960 - 3,990.
Best approach: do not chase price into resistance. Wait for a clean reaction at 4,060 - 4,080 or a pullback into the Bulls Must Hold zone.
Will buyers break 4,080, or will sellers defend this zone and push gold back into support?
Short 
Any gold bulls still out there?Just a scenario for people to think about (and check later against what happened).
I see signs of strength in gold. The Iran conflict never changed by view on the role of gold in the world. Actually, the increased deficit spending resulting from the conflict further strengthens it. There will be a lot of coded speeches from the Fed and posturing, but they aren't actually able to raise rates significantly due to the debt and interest load. Signs of economic weakness are evident recently and the Fed will be itching to re-commence tinkering with Treasury yields downwards and printing money to monetise the debt.
Also the Weekly MACD is slowly curving up towards the zero line, showing the potential for a multi-month up-trend to commence. RSI is showing an up-trend while the price is showing lower lows, this is always a sign of slowing momentum and sometimes a sign of an impending reversal of the local trend.
So this is my call, up-trend and a bounce off USD4400-4600 resistance, followed by a stronger move up towards historic highs and beyond. Time will tell. I have still been buying gold miners and haven't sold any due to the conflict.
It is actually funny, a silver and gold developer that I own just reached my average purchase buy-in price after being up 200%+ at times about 7 months ago. The difference? When I bought in silver was below USD35/oz and today silver is USD60/oz. They have been drilling and improving the properties, so they are valued far lower today than when I bought in. Each silver equivalent ounce is in their resource is only valued at USD$0.20/oz (market cap / ounces) which is crazy cheap considering the eventual net profit margin on mining these ounces will likely be more than 50% ($60/2 = $30/oz net margin). So I am very comfortable holding this equity. If you can pick up your favourite silver miner / developer today for the same price as you could in March 2025, that sounds like a good deal to me. If you cannot find any, check out AVM. Long 
XAGUSD: Breakout Signals RecoveryXAGUSD is showing positive signs as the price rebounds strongly from the lower boundary of the downtrend channel and approaches the resistance zone around 58.40—a level where the downtrend line and the 89-period EMA (EMA89) converge. This is a pivotal area; if buyers can absorb selling pressure and achieve a decisive breakout, the bearish structure that has persisted since the beginning of the month could be officially broken.
Based on the chart scenario, the price may undergo a brief pullback to the 55.36 zone to retest buying interest before resuming its ascent. As long as this support level holds, the recovery outlook remains positive, and a retest of the 58.40 zone remains the most likely outcome. A close above the downtrend line would confirm the start of a new bullish phase.
Fundamentally, silver continues to be supported by the outlook for industrial demand, particularly from the AI, electronics, and energy infrastructure sectors. Although the US dollar and US bond yields continue to exert pressure on precious metals, XAGUSD is demonstrating relative strength compared to gold, sustaining the short-term recovery outlook.
Strategy: Prioritize BUY positions if the price holds the 55.36 zone and a bullish confirmation signal appears; target 58.40. The bullish scenario would be invalidated if the price breaks below this support zone. Long 
XAUUSD H3: Accumulation Before a BreakoutXAUUSD is still facing pressure from the descending trendline connecting lower highs. However, recent price action shows that buyers are gradually regaining control as the price forms higher lows within a small rising wedge pattern. This reflects weakening selling pressure and an improving probability of a potential breakout.
However, the resistance zone around 4,180 remains a key barrier. Only when the price breaks and holds above the descending trendline will the bullish structure be truly confirmed, opening room for a stronger recovery move.
If the 4,000 support zone continues to hold, XAUUSD could move toward the 4,180 target area in the near term.
Trading Plan:
Entry: Look for Buy opportunities if the price holds the 4,000 support zone and shows bullish confirmation signals or breaks out above the descending trendline.
Target: 4,180
Invalidation:
The bullish scenario will be invalidated if XAUUSD closes below 4,000 on the H3 timeframe, indicating that sellers have regained control and weakening the bullish outlook. Long 
XAUUSD: Short-term bullish trend targeting the 4,070 supply zoneFollowing a strong recovery from the 3,960 level, XAUUSD is maintaining a structure of higher highs and higher lows on the H1 timeframe. The price is currently hugging the uptrend line and has just bounced off the 4,009 support zone, indicating that buying pressure remains in control of short-term movements. This area also serves as a critical anchor point should the market undergo a correction.
Based on the chart scenario, the price may retest the trend line around 4,009 before resuming its ascent. If buying pressure holds this support level and successfully breaks through the overhead supply zone, XAUUSD has the potential to extend its gains toward the 4,070 area—a level where liquidity and key resistance converge on the H1 timeframe.
Although fundamentally gold remains under pressure from expectations that the Fed will maintain high interest rates and elevated US bond yields, technical indicators suggest that buying pressure dominates the short term. Unless the US Dollar stages a strong rebound, this technical recovery could well continue before the market reassesses the broader trend.
Strategy:
- BUY if the price holds above 4,009 and a bullish confirmation signal appears,
- Target: 4,070. Long 
XAGUSD: Recovery momentum targeting the 59.98 levelXAGUSD is showing clear signs of improvement after bottoming out around the 55.00 area. On the H4 timeframe, the price has rebounded and is currently holding above the short-term support level of 56.41, indicating that buyers are gradually regaining control following the previous decline.
Notably, the price is approaching the downtrend line and the resistance zone of the Ichimoku Cloud. Consequently, the market may not rise immediately but could undergo a period of correction or consolidation before a breakout occurs. As long as the 56.41 level holds, the recovery structure remains intact, and the potential for further upside prevails.
If XAGUSD decisively breaks the downtrend line and sustains its position above the dynamic resistance zone, bullish momentum could extend toward the 59.98 level. This is a key supply zone on the chart and serves as the immediate target for the current bullish scenario.
From a fundamental perspective, silver continues to be supported by industrial demand, particularly in the electronics, energy, and technology infrastructure sectors. Although the US dollar and US bond yields may exert short-term pressure, silver's relative strength is helping XAGUSD maintain its recovery trend.
Strategy: Prioritize BUY positions if the price remains above 56.41 and a bullish confirmation signal appears; target 59.98. The bullish scenario would be undermined if the price closes decisively below this support level on the H4 timeframe. Long 
