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GOLD: Will 3960 Hold Until the FOMC?Gold continues to recover as markets digest ongoing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and renewed trade uncertainty after President Trump announced a 50% tariff on Canadian imports. These developments are adding volatility across markets while keeping investors focused on inflation risks, the U.S. dollar, and the upcoming FOMC meeting.
My base case is that the 3960 support zone will continue to hold ahead of the FOMC.
Rather than signaling the start of a new bullish trend, the current rally could be a move to build upside liquidity, sweep higher resistance levels, and create room for a larger downside move once the Fed provides its policy guidance.
📌 Trading Plan
Resistance: 4110–4130 | 4150–4180
Support: 4040–4050 | 3998–4005 | 3960–3970
📌 Personal View
✅ The short-term structure has improved, but I still view this as a pre-FOMC recovery rather than a confirmed trend reversal.
✅ As long as 3960–3970 remains intact, gold could continue extending toward 4110–4130, with 4150–4180 as the next liquidity zone.
✅ The 3960 area remains the key defensive line for buyers. Whether this level survives or breaks will likely be determined by the outcome of the upcoming FOMC meeting.
For now, my focus is not on chasing the rally, but on watching how price builds liquidity before the Fed makes its next move.
Will 3960 continue to hold through the FOMC, or will the Fed become the catalyst that finally breaks the buyers' last line of defense? Long 
What’s the Next Plan for Gold?Market Outlook
Trend
* The short-term trend is bullish after price broke above the descending trendline and established a Higher High – Higher Low market structure.
* However, price is currently undergoing a pullback after reaching a major resistance zone. The reaction around the breakout area should be monitored closely to confirm whether the bullish momentum will continue.
Resistance Level
🔵 4,105 – 4,107 – Major resistance, aligned with a key supply zone and the 1.618 Fibonacci extension.
* An H1 candle close above 4,105 would confirm the bullish continuation and open the door for further upside.
* If price is rejected at this level, a pullback toward the support zone is likely to build additional bullish momentum.
Support Level
🟢 4,030 – 4,032 – Immediate support, serving as both the breakout zone and a key demand area.
* Holding above 4,030 will maintain the short-term bullish structure.
* An H1 candle close below 4,030 would weaken the bullish momentum and increase the probability of a deeper pullback toward lower support levels.
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Trading Plan
🟢 BUY GOLD
* Entry: 4,030 – 4,032
* Stop Loss: 4,020
* Take Profit: 200 / 500 / 1000 pips
🔴 SELL GOLD
* Entry: 4,105 – 4,107
* Stop Loss: 4,117
* Take Profit: 200 / 500 / 1000 pips
Risk Management
* Risk no more than 1–2% of your account equity per trade.
* Wait for confirmation before entering any position.
* Consider moving your Stop Loss to breakeven once the trade reaches a reasonable profit level to protect your capital and reduce risk. Long 
NQ Analysis – Liquidity Map & Intraday Trading Plan 21.07.26NQ Analysis – Liquidity Map & Intraday Trading Plan
The Nasdaq remains in a corrective structure, but there is still liquidity resting above the market that could be targeted before any meaningful downside continuation. My primary focus today is on how price reacts around the key liquidity levels rather than predicting direction.
📈 Primary Liquidity Target
The main objective for today's session is the liquidity resting around 29,239.00. I expect price to reach this area first, with the potential for a brief extension above it to sweep any remaining buy-side liquidity before reversing back into the trading range.
🎯 Maximum Expected High
This represents the highest level I expect price to reach today. If price breaks above and holds this level, confirming it as support, I will continue looking for long opportunities.
However, if price reaches this area and forms a clear reversal pattern (market structure shift, rejection, or bearish confirmation), it would provide a high-probability setup to begin looking for short positions.
🇬🇧 London Session (8H Candle)
The current 8-hour candle represents the London session, which suggests that long positions should be managed cautiously. At this stage, I would only consider scalp buys.
If the current 8-hour candle closes back inside the previous 8-hour candle's range, it would signal a lack of bullish continuation. In that case, the first 30 minutes after the New York open could become highly volatile, with price capable of moving in either direction before establishing a clearer trend.
🇺🇸 New York Session Plan
If the market does not sweep the liquidity above Friday's highs before the New York session opens, I will be looking for long opportunities during the first 30 minutes of the session. My expectation would be for price to target that buy-side liquidity before any significant reversal develops.
Overall Bias
My primary expectation is for price to complete the remaining buy-side liquidity sweep before showing signs of weakness. Until the key liquidity objectives are met, I prefer to remain patient and avoid aggressively fading the market.
Once the liquidity targets have been achieved, I will closely monitor price action for confirmation:
Bullish continuation: If price holds above the key resistance and confirms support, I will continue looking for long setups.
Bearish reversal: If price rejects the target area and forms a clear reversal pattern, I will shift my focus to short opportunities back into the range.
As always, let the market confirm the idea rather than anticipating the move. Liquidity provides the destination, but price action provides the entry.
This analysis reflects my personal market view and is intended for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Long 
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UKOIL | Brent Oil Breaks $90, Are Triple Digits Next?By analyzing the #BrentOil chart on the weekly timeframe, we can see that price continued to follow the expected bullish scenario and finally broke above the psychological $90 level, reaching as high as $91.5.
Currently, Brent Oil is trading around $88 after a minor correction. In my view, this pullback may remain temporary, and if buyers step in again, we could see another bullish move toward higher levels.
The nearest demand zones are located around $86 – $88, followed by stronger support between $82 – $84. On the upside, the next targets to monitor are $92, followed by $95, $98, and then the major psychological level at $100.
If geopolitical tensions continue and supply risks remain elevated, targets above $100 may not be far out of reach. For now, my broader bias remains bullish after this short-term correction.
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban Gold may be poised for a turnaround!
The situation in the Middle East is currently characterized by recurring friction and a "fight-while-talking" dynamic; however, one thing is certain: regardless of how the situation evolves, this back-and-forth has become the new normal. The market has already fully priced in the economic impact of the conflict, and the situation has largely lost its power to shock. Take the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, for instance—it has persisted for countless days, yet countermeasures such as alternative shipping routes and increased production from other oil-producing nations have been implemented, causing oil prices to retreat. Regarding future inflation, oil prices are currently hovering in the $80 range, keeping overall inflation within a manageable scope. Furthermore, with Warsh proposing a redefinition of inflation measurement metrics, we simply need to await the finalization and announcement of these new standards.
Turning to the current gold price hovering around the 4,000 mark: last October, the price was also near 4,000 before surging to a peak of 5,600 by the end of January; it began to pull back in early February, effectively retracing the entire rally. As for the world's largest gold ETF, it increased its holdings by 4.56 tonnes in a single day yesterday. This marks the largest single-day increase in nearly a month—or even longer—since June, offering a glimmer of hope to the bulls and signaling that capital is indeed entering the market.
From a technical perspective, the bulls appear resilient on the 4-hour chart; the downward trend channel has been broken to the upside, and the immediate overhead resistance at 4,050 looks vulnerable. With the MACD holding steady above the zero line, the target is set at 4,100! 
Long
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XAUUSD — Buy the Fibonacci PullbackFundamental Analysis
Gold gained more than 1% as markets assessed possible U.S.–Iran ceasefire efforts and softer oil prices, which may reduce oil-driven inflation pressure. However, firm Treasury yields and renewed Fed tightening expectations could limit upside momentum ahead of the July 28–29 FOMC meeting.
Technical Analysis
On the 1H chart, XAUUSD is trading near 4,082.65 after breaking above the descending trendline and testing the immediate resistance around 4,078.67. Since price has already expanded, the preferred setup is to wait for a retracement into 4,038.30–4,047.83, where the Fibonacci 0.5–0.618 levels and breakout support converge. If this zone holds with bullish confirmation, gold could retest 4,078–4,085 before extending toward 4,100 and the 1.618 Fibonacci target near 4,128.56.
Important Key Levels
Current price: 4,082.65
Main buy zone: 4,038.30–4,047.83
Short-term support: 4,038.30–4,047.83
Short-term resistance: 4,078.67–4,085
Liquidity area: 4,126.30–4,133
Main target: 4,128.56
Invalidation: below 4,018.42
Trading Scenario
Main Buy Setup
Entry: 4,038.30–4,047.83
Stop Loss: 4,018.42
Take Profit 1: 4,078.67
Take Profit 2: 4,100
Take Profit 3: 4,126.30–4,133
Buy Condition
Wait for price to retrace into the main buy zone and show bullish rejection. A long lower wick, bullish engulfing candle, failed breakdown, or 1H close back above 4,047.83 may confirm buyer pressure. If price breaks and holds below 4,018.42, the buy setup is no longer valid.
Overall View
The short-term view remains bullish after the descending trendline breakout, but buying near current price may offer limited value. The preferred plan is to wait for a controlled pullback into 4,038.30–4,047.83, with 4,128.56 remaining the main upside target. The major target zone may also attract profit-taking or a bearish reaction.
Do you expect gold to retest the main buy zone first, or continue directly toward the 1.618 Fibonacci target? Long 
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Will gold prices surge in US trading today?🚀 Gold Surges +1.6%! Key Trade Levels Today
Despite market noise, Gold staged a strong rebound today, rallying up to the $4,072 region. While geopolitical news is fading, upcoming US tariff updates continue to give safe-haven gold an extra push.
📊 Key Technical Levels
Upper Resistance: $4,085 – $4,100
Lower Support: $4,030 – $4,040
💡 Daily Trading Blueprint
🟢 Buy / Long Strategy (Primary):
Entry Zone: Pullback to $4,040 – $4,050
Stop Loss: $4,020 Targets: $4,070 – $4,080 (Breakout target: $4,100)
🔴 Short / Sell Strategy (Counter-trend):
Entry Zone: Rebound to $4,085 – $4,095
Stop Loss: $4,110
Targets: $4,070 – $4,060 (Breakout target: $4,050)
⚠️ Risk Warning: Maintain strict risk management (recommended max 20% position size). Long 
XAUUSD at a Decision Point: Break or Drop Toward Gold is approaching a critical area on the 1-hour chart. Price is testing a descending resistance trendline that has already rejected buyers several times.
The market is currently caught between two scenarios:
🟢 Bullish scenario
A confirmed breakout above 4,080, followed by a successful retest, could open the way toward 4,120 and then 4,180–4,200.
🔴 Bearish scenario
Another rejection from resistance, combined with a breakdown below the local support area at 3,990–4,000, could trigger a move toward 3,960 and the main support trendline around 3,920–3,940.
The stochastic oscillator has reached the overbought zone and is beginning to turn lower, so entering before confirmation may be premature. The key factor is not the trendline touch itself, but the price reaction and the hourly candle close.
The key level is 4,080. Above it, buyers regain control. Below 4,000, sellers gain the advantage.
Which scenario do you expect: breakout or rejection? Short 
Gold Extends Rally Post-Breakout, TP Still Open Toward ResistancThe 1H XAUUSD chart continues to show strong bullish follow-through after last week's key structural shift. Price initially broke down from a Distribution Zone in early July, finding support at the institutional buying zone near 3,958–3,989, before building a gradual recovery through multiple CHoCH (Change of Character) signals.
The pivotal moment came with the confirmed Bullish trendline breakout near 4,020–4,030, where price decisively cleared the descending trend line that had capped every rally since the start of the month. This breakout zone has since flipped into an Order Block, acting as a fresh support area on the retest.
That retest played out cleanly, with price bouncing from the Order Block and completing its first leg higher, reaching 4,081.029 — a move now marked as "done" on the chart. Price has since pushed further, currently trading at 4,121.335, up 0.58% on the session, confirming continued bullish momentum.
With TP still marked as open, the projected path points toward Target 1 near 4,188, which sits within the broader Key Resistance zone that dominated price action for most of July. This zone previously acted as a strong supply area, so reaction there is likely on the first test.
From a risk management perspective, the key invalidation level is a decisive break back below the Order Block (under 4,005). Such a move would suggest the bullish structure has weakened and could open the door for a deeper retracement.
For now, structure strongly favors continued upside as long as the Order Block holds, with traders watching for confirmation signals as price approaches the Key Resistance zone.
Do you think gold will reach the 4,188 target smoothly, or will we see resistance kick in before then? Long 
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Hellena | GOLD (4H): SHORT to the 3850 support area.The previous GOLD forecast worked out, and the price reached the target. Now the structure, in my view, still points to further downside.
After a small adjustment to the wave count, I believe the red wave "C" of a higher degree is still developing. This corrective wave most likely consists of five medium-degree waves, and at the moment I see the market moving within wave "3".
If this scenario is correct, the price should break below the wave "A" low at 3941.35. This is an important level, because without taking out that low, the bearish continuation would not look complete.
The nearest target I am watching is the 3850.9 support area. This is the main downside zone for the current move. I do not want to focus on distant targets yet. For now, it makes more sense to work with the nearest strong area.
A small pullback is still possible before the decline continues. As long as the price stays below the 4058.22 resistance area, I continue to look for short positions.
From the broader side, gold is still facing pressure from the U.S. dollar, yields, and Fed rate expectations. Because of that, the bearish scenario still looks reasonable, even if the market gives a short correction first.
Manage your capital properly and wisely! Enter trades only based on reliable patterns! Short 
XAUUSD: Wave 5 Downside Remains Active
Gold is still trading under short-term bearish pressure after failing to hold above the recovery trendline. From Kelly’s view, the current structure suggests that price may be preparing for another downside continuation, with wave 5 still open towards the lower Fibonacci target zones.
The key idea is simple: gold may retest resistance first, but the bearish structure remains valid while price stays below the sell zone.
⟡ Market structure
The chart shows gold attempted to recover from the lower area, but the rebound lost strength near the 4,020–4,030 region. Price is now trading around 4,004 and reacting below the broken uptrend line.
This is important because the trendline that previously supported the recovery is now acting as a retest area. If gold cannot reclaim this line with strength, the current bounce may only be a correction before the next bearish leg continues.
The nearest sell-test area is around 4,005–4,012, while the stronger sell zone wave 4 sits near 4,020–4,030. As long as these zones hold, sellers still have the technical advantage.
➤ Key levels
◌ 4,005–4,012: sell-test trendline zone
◌ 4,020–4,030: sell zone wave 4 and main resistance
◌ 4,004: current price reaction area
◌ 3,982: first buy scalping reaction level
◌ 3,959: next support checkpoint
◌ 3,938–3,945: Fibonacci 1.618 target area
◌ 3,855–3,865: possible wave 5 completion zone
◌ Above 4,030: area where the bearish setup starts to weaken
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to be developing the final part of a bearish 5-wave sequence.
Wave 1 started the downside move after the recovery failed.
Wave 2 created a short rebound but could not break the structure.
Wave 3 pushed price lower with stronger selling pressure.
Wave 4 is now likely forming as a retest into the trendline and sell zone.
If this resistance holds, wave 5 may continue towards 3,938–3,945 first, then 3,855–3,865 if momentum expands.
This is why Kelly would not treat the current bounce as a bullish reversal yet. The market is still below the key resistance and the Elliott structure still supports one more downside leg.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for price to retest the sell-test trendline or the sell zone wave 4 and show bearish confirmation.
Sell zone: 4,005–4,030 if rejection appears
Stop loss: above the confirmed rejection high or above 4,030
Take profit 1: 3,982
Take profit 2: 3,959
Take profit 3: 3,938–3,945
Take profit 4: 3,855–3,865 if wave 5 extends strongly
Alternative scenario: if gold breaks above 4,030 and holds with strong acceptance, the bearish wave 5 setup weakens. In that case, price may move into a larger corrective recovery before the next direction becomes clear.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, this is still a sell-the-retest structure. Gold has not fully reversed yet, and the current reaction is happening under the broken trendline and wave 4 resistance.
The cleaner plan is to wait for confirmation near resistance, not chase price while it is already close to support.
Gold remains vulnerable below the sell zone.
If sellers defend 4,005–4,030, wave 5 may continue towards the Fibonacci targets below.
Share your view below.
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