Long
Long 
Gold Crashed From 5,602 to 4,000: Is the Bull Market Dead?Let's address the elephant in the room. Gold printed its all-time high of 5,602 back on January 29, 2026, and now we're grinding around 4,009. That's a brutal drawdown, and everyone screaming "buy the dip" for the last six months has been getting steamrolled. So ask yourself honestly: is this still a bull market, or are we just in denial?
The macro isn't helping the bulls either. Crude oil ripped over 10% last week as renewed US-Iran clashes stoked supply concerns, reviving inflation fears and lifting expectations that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer. Higher for longer is poison for gold. That's exactly why gold just closed out its biggest weekly decline in over a month, and why rallies are likely to stay capped within this corrective phase, with the channel top near 4,082 acting as the first real hurdle.
Now look at my chart. The news and the structure are telling the same story. H1 printed ChoCH after ChoCH, then a clean BOS below 3,975. Sellers own this. The bounce off 3,959.8 is not strength, it's fuel. I want price to pull back into the Golden Fibo Zone at 4,045 to 4,065, sweep the buy side liquidity stacked between 4,026.9 and 4,081.5, trap the breakout buyers, and then roll over toward 3,959.8 where the 1.618 extension sits on top of the old liquidity low.
Invalidation is simple: a decisive H1 close above the 4,104 gap kills the sell idea and I step aside. Until that happens, every rally into premium is a gift, not a reversal. Monday liquidity is thin, so expect at least one fake sweep before the real move shows its hand.
So tell me: are you still holding longs from the highs, or are you finally joining the sellers? Short 
Long 
Gold (XAUUSD) | 1H: Watching for Rejection at Key ResistanceGold has delivered a strong impulsive rally after breaking above the descending trendline, shifting the immediate market structure to the upside. Price is now trading within a significant higher-timeframe supply (order block), where previous selling interest may become active.
The current focus is on how price reacts inside this resistance zone. A loss of bullish momentum or confirmed bearish rejection could lead to a corrective move toward the highlighted demand area. Conversely, sustained acceptance above the supply zone would reduce the probability of a deeper pullback and suggest continued strength.
Key Technical Levels
Major Supply: 4080–4100
Immediate Support: Around 4050
Higher-Timeframe Demand: Around 3960
Market Scenarios
Bearish Scenario:
A confirmed rejection within the supply zone, supported by bearish price action, could initiate a retracement toward lower support levels, with the highlighted demand zone remaining a key area to monitor.
Bullish Scenario:
If buyers establish acceptance above the supply zone, the current bullish structure may remain intact, increasing the likelihood of continued upside.
This analysis is based solely on price action, market structure, liquidity, trendline dynamics, and supply-demand concepts. It outlines potential market scenarios rather than predicting future price movement.
Disclaimer: This publication is intended for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Always conduct your own analysis and apply disciplined risk management before making trading decisions. Short 
Gold is ready to take off, setting target 4120Gold has produced a strong impulsive rally from the major demand zone (3970–3985) and is now consolidating just beneath the 4,080 resistance zone. From a Smart Money Concepts (SMC) perspective, the market structure has shifted decisively in favor of buyers after confirming a Change of Character (CHoCH) followed by multiple Breaks of Structure (BOS). The current pullback appears to be a healthy retracement into newly established support rather than the beginning of a bearish reversal.
🟢 Market Structure
* CHoCH near the demand zone marked the transition from bearish to bullish order flow.
* Multiple BOS confirmations indicate institutional buyers have regained control.
* The sequence of higher highs and higher lows reinforces the bullish trend.
🟢 Major Demand Zone
* 3970–3985 remains the primary institutional demand zone.
* This area generated a strong bullish reaction, suggesting significant accumulation by large market participants.
* As long as price remains above this zone, the higher-timeframe bullish outlook remains valid.
🟢 Supporting Area
* The highlighted supporting area around 4,000–4,020 has acted as a launch point for the recent rally.
* A successful retest of this region would strengthen the case for continued upside.
🔴 Resistance Zone
* 4,080 is the nearest major resistance and previous supply zone.
* Price has already tested this area and is currently consolidating beneath it.
* A decisive close above this resistance would indicate that buy-side liquidity has been captured and that bullish momentum is likely to continue.
💧 Liquidity Analysis
* The recent breakout suggests smart money has absorbed selling pressure during the advance.
* The current consolidation below resistance may represent accumulation before another bullish expansion.
* A confirmed breakout above 4,080 could trigger stop orders from short sellers and attract momentum buyers.
#Bullish Outlook
The overall market structure remains bullish. The pullback after testing resistance appears to be a normal retracement rather than a structural reversal. If buyers continue defending the newly formed support, Gold has the potential to resume its upward move toward higher liquidity levels.
#Bullish Targets
🎯 Target 1: 4,080 – Break and hold above the current resistance.
🎯 Target 2: 4,100 – Intermediate liquidity objective.
🎯 Target 3: 4,120 – Major bullish target and next significant resistance.
Long 
XAUUSD: Wave 5 Downside Remains Active
Gold is still trading under short-term bearish pressure after failing to hold above the recovery trendline. From Kelly’s view, the current structure suggests that price may be preparing for another downside continuation, with wave 5 still open towards the lower Fibonacci target zones.
The key idea is simple: gold may retest resistance first, but the bearish structure remains valid while price stays below the sell zone.
⟡ Market structure
The chart shows gold attempted to recover from the lower area, but the rebound lost strength near the 4,020–4,030 region. Price is now trading around 4,004 and reacting below the broken uptrend line.
This is important because the trendline that previously supported the recovery is now acting as a retest area. If gold cannot reclaim this line with strength, the current bounce may only be a correction before the next bearish leg continues.
The nearest sell-test area is around 4,005–4,012, while the stronger sell zone wave 4 sits near 4,020–4,030. As long as these zones hold, sellers still have the technical advantage.
➤ Key levels
◌ 4,005–4,012: sell-test trendline zone
◌ 4,020–4,030: sell zone wave 4 and main resistance
◌ 4,004: current price reaction area
◌ 3,982: first buy scalping reaction level
◌ 3,959: next support checkpoint
◌ 3,938–3,945: Fibonacci 1.618 target area
◌ 3,855–3,865: possible wave 5 completion zone
◌ Above 4,030: area where the bearish setup starts to weaken
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to be developing the final part of a bearish 5-wave sequence.
Wave 1 started the downside move after the recovery failed.
Wave 2 created a short rebound but could not break the structure.
Wave 3 pushed price lower with stronger selling pressure.
Wave 4 is now likely forming as a retest into the trendline and sell zone.
If this resistance holds, wave 5 may continue towards 3,938–3,945 first, then 3,855–3,865 if momentum expands.
This is why Kelly would not treat the current bounce as a bullish reversal yet. The market is still below the key resistance and the Elliott structure still supports one more downside leg.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for price to retest the sell-test trendline or the sell zone wave 4 and show bearish confirmation.
Sell zone: 4,005–4,030 if rejection appears
Stop loss: above the confirmed rejection high or above 4,030
Take profit 1: 3,982
Take profit 2: 3,959
Take profit 3: 3,938–3,945
Take profit 4: 3,855–3,865 if wave 5 extends strongly
Alternative scenario: if gold breaks above 4,030 and holds with strong acceptance, the bearish wave 5 setup weakens. In that case, price may move into a larger corrective recovery before the next direction becomes clear.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, this is still a sell-the-retest structure. Gold has not fully reversed yet, and the current reaction is happening under the broken trendline and wave 4 resistance.
The cleaner plan is to wait for confirmation near resistance, not chase price while it is already close to support.
Gold remains vulnerable below the sell zone.
If sellers defend 4,005–4,030, wave 5 may continue towards the Fibonacci targets below.
Share your view below.
Short 
Hellena | GOLD (4H): SHORT to the 3850 support area.The previous GOLD forecast worked out, and the price reached the target. Now the structure, in my view, still points to further downside.
After a small adjustment to the wave count, I believe the red wave "C" of a higher degree is still developing. This corrective wave most likely consists of five medium-degree waves, and at the moment I see the market moving within wave "3".
If this scenario is correct, the price should break below the wave "A" low at 3941.35. This is an important level, because without taking out that low, the bearish continuation would not look complete.
The nearest target I am watching is the 3850.9 support area. This is the main downside zone for the current move. I do not want to focus on distant targets yet. For now, it makes more sense to work with the nearest strong area.
A small pullback is still possible before the decline continues. As long as the price stays below the 4058.22 resistance area, I continue to look for short positions.
From the broader side, gold is still facing pressure from the U.S. dollar, yields, and Fed rate expectations. Because of that, the bearish scenario still looks reasonable, even if the market gives a short correction first.
Manage your capital properly and wisely! Enter trades only based on reliable patterns! Short 
XAUUSD: Uptrend line continues to support the recovery momentumXAUUSD is maintaining a structure of higher highs and higher lows on the H1 timeframe, having successfully bounced off the ascending trend line multiple times. The price has just broken above the short-term resistance zone and is holding firm above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating that buyers remain in control. The 4,010 level serves as key support—acting as a confluence point between the trend line and the Ichimoku Base Line—thereby reinforcing the short-term bullish outlook.
Based on the chart scenario, the price may experience a pullback to the 4,010 area before extending its upward momentum. If buying pressure successfully defends this support zone and a confirmation candle appears, XAUUSD is likely to target the 4,070 level. Upon clearing this resistance, bullish momentum could extend toward 4,110, a level coinciding with a significant supply zone on the H1 timeframe.
In addition to positive technical signals, gold continues to benefit from safe-haven demand driven by persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and ongoing central bank buying. Despite pressure from the US dollar and US bond yields, these supportive factors may help gold sustain its short-term recovery.
Strategy: Prioritize BUY positions if the price holds above 4,010 and a bullish confirmation signal appears; targets are 4,070 and 4,110. The bullish scenario will be invalidated if the price closes below the 4,010 support zone on the H1 timeframe. Long 
Long 
UKOIL | Brent Oil Breaks $90, Are Triple Digits Next?By analyzing the #BrentOil chart on the weekly timeframe, we can see that price continued to follow the expected bullish scenario and finally broke above the psychological $90 level, reaching as high as $91.5.
Currently, Brent Oil is trading around $88 after a minor correction. In my view, this pullback may remain temporary, and if buyers step in again, we could see another bullish move toward higher levels.
The nearest demand zones are located around $86 – $88, followed by stronger support between $82 – $84. On the upside, the next targets to monitor are $92, followed by $95, $98, and then the major psychological level at $100.
If geopolitical tensions continue and supply risks remain elevated, targets above $100 may not be far out of reach. For now, my broader bias remains bullish after this short-term correction.
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban Long 
Bullish Recovery Faces Major Supply ZoneXAU/USD (Gold) 4H Outlook: Bullish Recovery Faces Major Supply Zone
Gold is showing signs of recovery after rebounding from the 3,950–3,970 demand zone, where buyers stepped in to defend key support. Price is now approaching a short-term resistance area around 4,070–4,090, which could determine the next directional move.
A decisive breakout above this resistance may strengthen bullish momentum and open the path toward the 4,180–4,200 major supply zone. However, failure to break higher could trigger another rejection, sending price back toward the 3,950 demand zone.
Key Levels
🟥 Resistance: 4,070 – 4,090
🟩 Support: 3,950 – 3,970
Market Outlook
The short-term bias is bullish while price holds above the demand zone, but confirmation above 4,090 is needed before expecting a stronger continuation.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always wait for confirmation and manage your risk accordingly. Long 
21/07 H4 - GOLD BREAKS THE DOWNTREND – BREAKOUT OR A BULL TRAP? After several weeks of persistent selling pressure, Gold is finally showing the first meaningful signs of stabilization. The broader macro backdrop has not changed significantly, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a cautious stance and the market still expecting interest rates to remain restrictive for some time. However, the absence of fresh bullish catalysts for the U.S. dollar has allowed Gold to recover from recent lows as profit-taking and short covering begin to emerge.
Rather than being driven by a major macro shift, the current rebound appears to reflect a change in short-term market positioning. This makes confirmation more important than anticipation, as institutional traders will likely wait for price to validate a new structure before committing to larger positions.
From a technical perspective, Gold has broken above the descending trendline that capped price action throughout the recent decline, marking the first technical improvement in weeks. Price is now approaching the previous Demand + Fibonacci resistance, which also aligns with the former ascending trendline around the 408x area. This confluence represents the market's next decision point. A successful retest followed by a confirmed break above 408x would suggest that buyers are regaining control and could open the way toward the 412x institutional resistance zone.
However, the breakout has yet to receive full confirmation. If buyers fail to defend the 401x support and price falls back below the breakout zone, the recent move would likely be classified as a false breakout, shifting focus back toward the lower liquidity zone.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
Gold may continue its recovery after breaking the descending trendline. A successful retest above 401x, followed by a confirmed breakout through the 408x Demand + Fibonacci resistance, could expose the 412x supply zone as the next upside objective.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
If price loses the 401x support and falls back below the breakout area, the bullish breakout would likely fail. In that case, Gold could resume its broader bearish trend and revisit the lower demand zone around 394x–396x.
MARKET VIEW
Current Bias: Neutral to Bullish
Preferred Strategy: Buy the Dip above 401x – Wait Confirmation above 408x.
Lucas Gay Trading Short 
XAUUSD — Bullish FVG Retest SetupMarket Context
Gold is trading around $4,063 after breaking the short-term structure and printing a bullish BOS above the $4,040 area. The recovery followed an earlier MSS from the lower boundary of the descending channel, showing that buyers are gaining control of the intraday structure.
Price is now approaching the old high liquidity at $4,073.649. Rather than chasing the current move, the cleaner opportunity would be a controlled pullback into the Bullish FVG around $4,020–$4,028, where displaced price action could provide support.
SMC View
The MSS marked the first shift away from the previous bearish sequence, while the recent BOS confirmed bullish continuation. The Bullish FVG below price is the main decision zone because it represents the imbalance created during the breakout.
A retracement into this area would allow price to rebalance before targeting the liquidity above. Buyer control should be confirmed through bullish rejection followed by a lower-timeframe MSS, CHOCH or a clean reclaim of the FVG.
Main Trading Scenario
Condition:
Gold pulls back into the $4,020–$4,028 Bullish FVG and forms a clear bullish rejection. A lower-timeframe bullish MSS or CHOCH is required before entry.
Entry: $4,020–$4,028 after bullish confirmation
SL: Below $4,000 and the FVG reaction low
TP1: $4,073.649
TP2: $4,103.844
TP3: $4,135.068
Key Zones to Watch
Current price: $4,063
Bullish FVG: $4,020–$4,028
Old high liquidity: $4,073.649
Internal high: $4,103.844
Main target: $4,135.068
Invalidation: Acceptance below $4,000
Confirmation: Bullish rejection with MSS or CHOCH
Prime Gold View
The buy bias remains valid while Gold holds above the Bullish FVG and maintains the recent BOS. The preferred plan is to wait for a pullback into $4,020–$4,028 rather than chase price near the first liquidity target.
If buyers defend the FVG, price could expand toward $4,073.649, followed by $4,103.844 and $4,135.068. Acceptance below $4,000 would weaken the current bullish setup.
No confirmation, no trade. Long 
Gold Breaks the Trendline – Is This the Start of a Bigger Rally?In yesterday's analysis, I mentioned that although the descending trendline had not been broken yet, there were clear signs that sellers were gradually losing momentum.
One of the strongest clues was the trendline itself.
Over the past two weeks, Gold had tested it multiple times without triggering another meaningful leg lower.
In technical analysis, that is rarely a sign of strength. More often than not, repeated tests weaken a level until it eventually gives way.
That was also the reason why, since the end of last week, I kept warning that a bullish reversal was becoming increasingly likely.
And today, the market finally delivered.
During the final hours of the Asian session, Gold broke decisively above the descending trendline, and the breakout quickly accelerated toward the 4085 area, a level that has repeatedly acted as an important reaction zone.
So...
Was this the entire move?
I don't think so.
The breakout itself is important, but what matters even more is the shift in market control.
For the first time in weeks, buyers have managed to invalidate the short-term bearish structure instead of simply producing another temporary bounce.
That doesn't mean the road higher will be straight.
Markets almost never move that way.
But as long as the breakout remains valid, I believe the path of least resistance has shifted to the upside.
Trading View
The first area I'll be watching is the 4040–4050 zone.
If Gold pulls back into that area and buyers step in again, it could offer attractive buying opportunities for traders looking to join the new short-term trend.
The bullish scenario remains valid while price holds above the broken resistance.
A sustained move back below the 4020–4030 area would invalidate the breakout and force me to reassess the bullish outlook.
For now, however, the market has finally done what many traders had stopped believing it could do.
Sometimes, the best trades begin exactly when people give up waiting for them. 🚀 Long 
XAUUSD – Trapped in a Range, Waiting for the Next Bounce?On the M15 timeframe , gold is currently moving in a sideways structure while waiting for its next bullish leg , with price holding around 4009–4012 and still unable to break decisively out of the short-term consolidation zone. The current setup suggests that the market is compressed between nearby support below and resistance above, which means short-term moves are more likely to be liquidity tests rather than a confirmed directional breakout.
From a technical perspective, there are two main scenarios to watch. The first is a move higher into Turn Area 2 around 4072 , where price may face profit-taking pressure and pull back toward the 4040 zone. The second scenario is a drop into Turn Area 1 around 3948–3959 to build momentum, followed by a rebound back toward 3982 and potentially higher if buying pressure returns more clearly. The key idea here is to avoid entering in the middle of a noisy range; instead, traders should wait for price to react clearly at Turn Area 1 or T urn Area 2 to improve the quality of scalping entries.
On the macro side, gold is still being driven by two opposing forces. On one hand, US–Iran tensions and energy risks around the Strait of Hormuz continue to support safe-haven demand. On the other hand, elevated energy prices are keeping inflation concerns alive, reinforcing the view that US interest rates may stay higher for longer, which prevents gold from breaking out decisively. The latest gold price is around 4011.73 USD/oz, down 0.13% on the day , down 4.29% over the past month , but still 18.03% higher than a year ago.
On the US data side, the more important upcoming catalysts are medium-term events such as Jobless Claims (23/07) , the PCE Price Index (30/07) , and especially the Fed Interest Rate Decision (29/07, 06:00 PM US time) . This means that, in the short term, gold is still likely to be driven more by price action and technical reaction at the turn zones than by a major same-day macro shock.
For short-term traders, the more appropriate approach right now is to focus on entries around Turn Area 1 or Turn Area 2 , or drop down to M1/M5 for more precise scalping confirmation. In a compressed market like this, the edge does not come from guessing direction too early, but from waiting for the right zone and following real price reaction.
Core idea: gold is still ranging while waiting for its next bullish move, but the best setups remain the ones taken from clear reactions at Turn Area 1 or Turn Area 2 — personal view of Leo_WarRoom.
XAU/USD: THE 4,200 MACRO WEDGE BREAKOUT! 🪙 🚀
Gold is surging back to life around 4,058.90 after printing a clean structural reversal off the bottom floor. Are you still trying to short this bottom, or are you loaded up for the bullish expansion? 🤔
Shifting macroeconomic momentum is breathing fresh air back into non-yielding assets. On this 4-hour OANDA chart, spot gold has cleanly defended its primary macro Support line and shattered out of its localized descending wedge pattern. 📈💥
Look closely at the purple blueprint trajectory mapping out the upcoming sessions. The algorithm is currently absorbing overhead supply near 4,060, preparing to launch a high-velocity, stair-step continuation straight toward the major horizontal resistance ceiling at 4,200. 🎯🏹
Technical patience remains your ultimate edge in this current environment. Trying to force short positions directly against a confirmed structural breakout off major high-timeframe demand is a fast track to liquidation. Smart money is quietly building position blocks right here for the next major expansion leg. 🧘♂️⚡
Trade Parameters:
🛒 Long Zone: 4,040 - 4,065 🛍️
🛑 Stop-Loss: 4h close below 3,980 ❌
💰 Take-Profit: 4,200 🎯
The bears who pushed gold down to the macro channel floor are officially running out of oxygen as buyers take full control. Stay disciplined, keep your risk tightly managed, and let the algorithm carry the trade up to our target. See you at the 4,200 peak! 🚀💎 Long 
Long
Short
XAUUSD Sell Setup: 4,070 OB Trap Before Drop to 3,998Gold's caught in a weird spot right now. We've got the Iran conflict still running hot, nine straight nights of US strikes, oil pushing above $90, and that's normally the kind of headline that sends gold flying on safe haven flows. But structurally, price is walking straight into a level I've been watching since the 16th, and I don't think the news changes what the chart is telling me.
Quick recap: sharp drop from the 9th to the 13th (BOS into ChoCH, low at 3,966), then a corrective bounce that built a minor bullish BOS at 4,038. Now price is pushing right into the Order Block at 4,050 to 4,070, and this is exactly where I'd expect smart money to offload longs. There's buy side liquidity resting above 4,066 up toward 4,120. This move up looks more like a sweep to trap late buyers than the start of a real reversal. We're still inside the bigger descending channel from the 9th, so until that breaks, I'm treating every rally as a sell opportunity, not a trend change.
Adding to the tension, markets are pricing an 85%+ chance the Fed holds rates on July 29, and rising yields plus a firmer dollar have been capping gold's upside even with all the geopolitical noise. That's the kind of backdrop where a sell the rally idea into resistance makes sense.
I want to see a reaction at 4,050 to 4,070, a rejection wick, a quick close back under, before pulling the trigger. First target 3,998, extended target 3,966 if momentum follows through.
Invalidation is clean. H1 closing and holding above 4,070, or above 4,120, and this whole idea is off the table.
Not financial advice, just how I'm reading it. Is anyone else fading this OB, or are you playing the geopolitical fear trade long? Short 
Long 
XAUUSD: A Pullback Before Targeting 4,140?XAUUSD is recovering after a strong rebound from the 3,970 support zone, gradually reclaiming a position above the Ichimoku Cloud on the H4 timeframe. The price is currently approaching the 4,100–4,140 resistance zone, an area that previously generated significant selling pressure. With the fundamental backdrop remaining positive—driven by safe-haven demand and central bank buying—the bulls retain the advantage.
However, the resistance zone ahead could trigger a short-term pullback. If XAUUSD retraces to retest the 3,970 support level and shows clear signs of rejecting further downside, this would present an opportunity for buyers to re-enter and potentially resume the uptrend.
Strategy: Prioritize BUY positions if the price holds the 3,970 level and a bullish confirmation candle appears; target 4,140. The bullish scenario is invalidated if the price closes below 3,970 on the H4 timeframe. Long 
