How Will Gold React After the Major Economic News?Market Outlook
Trend
* The medium-term trend remains bearish, with price continuing to trade within a descending channel and still unable to break the Lower High market structure.
* Price is currently reacting from the 3,963 support zone, but it must break above the descending trendline to confirm a bullish reversal.
Resistance Levels
🔵 4,095 – Immediate resistance, aligned with the descending trendline and a key supply zone.
🔵 4,200 – Major resistance and the next upside target if a successful breakout occurs.
* An H4 candle close above 4,095 would confirm a breakout from the descending channel and open the door for further gains toward 4,200.
* If price is rejected at this level, the bearish trend is likely to resume.
Support Levels
🟢 3,963 – Immediate support and a key demand zone currently supporting price.
🟢 3,850 – Strong support and the next downside target if the current support is broken.
* Holding above 3,963 keeps the short-term recovery scenario intact.
* An H4 candle close below 3,963 would confirm a bearish breakout and increase the probability of a decline toward 3,850.
⸻
Trading Scenarios
📈 Bullish Scenario: Price holds above 3,963 and breaks above 4,095, opening the way toward 4,200.
📉 Bearish Scenario: An H4 candle closes below 3,963, targeting 3,850. Alternatively, if price rallies to 4,095 but is rejected, the preferred strategy remains to sell in line with the prevailing downtrend. 
Short
Gold Trading Review & July 17 Market Analysis🟡 Gold Trading Review & July 17 Market Analysis
3982-3985 Long Position Perfectly Executed | 210+ PIPS Profit Secured 🎯
Dear fellow traders, good morning! ☀️
Yesterday during the US session, we provided a real-time trading opportunity based on the key support zone:
📌 Gold Buy Entry: 3982-3985 USD
Although gold was still in a short-term downtrend and rebound momentum was relatively weak, we identified:
🔥 3970 USD as a strong support area
Our trading logic was clear:
If gold could hold this support zone and successfully reclaim the 4000 psychological level, the upside recovery could extend toward:
🎯 4020-4030 USD
With a favorable risk-to-reward ratio, we confidently executed the long setup.
As expected:
📈 Gold rebounded during the Asian session and reached:
🎯 4008 USD
The market once again followed our trading plan perfectly.
Congratulations to all traders who followed the signal! 👏👏
💰 Profit secured: 210+ PIPS ✅
Successful trading is never about guessing the market.
It comes from:
✅ Clear market structure
✅ Precise entry levels
✅ Strict risk management
✅ Patience and discipline
🌍 Fundamental Analysis | Gold Market Outlook
On July 17, during the Asian session, spot gold moved lower and touched a two-week low.
The recent decline in gold has been driven by multiple factors:
📌 Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East
📌 Stronger US Dollar
📌 Higher US Treasury yields
📌 Increasing expectations for higher interest rates
📌 Reduced demand for non-yielding assets
The escalation of tensions in the Middle East has pushed oil prices higher, increasing inflation concerns.
Meanwhile, stronger-than-expected US economic data has reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain a restrictive monetary policy for longer.
These factors have created short-term pressure on gold.
However, from a medium-to-long-term perspective:
🌍 Global central bank gold purchases
🌍 Geopolitical uncertainty
🌍 Long-term inflation risks
continue to provide fundamental support for gold.
Therefore, the current move should be viewed as:
📊 A correction phase rather than a complete change in the long-term trend.
Traders should continue monitoring:
🔥 US Dollar movement
🔥 Federal Reserve policy signals
🔥 Middle East geopolitical developments
🔥 Energy market volatility
These factors will determine gold’s next major direction.
📈 Gold Technical Analysis
Daily Chart Analysis
Yesterday gold formed a strong bearish candle:
📉 Broke below the 4000 psychological level
📉 Broke below the previous consolidation support zone
Short-term moving averages:
5-day, 10-day, and 20-day MA are showing a bearish alignment.
Technical indicators:
📉 MACD bearish momentum continues expanding.
📉 RSI has dropped near 30, entering oversold territory.
However, there is no clear bullish divergence yet.
The current daily structure shows:
📉 A potential small rounding top formation.
Key support area:
🟢 3940-3960 USD
If this zone fails:
Next target:
🎯 3920 USD
📊 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Gold is currently trading inside a descending channel.
Current characteristics:
📌 Lower highs continue forming
📌 Every rebound faces selling pressure
📌 Bearish structure remains intact
Price is approaching the lower boundary of the channel.
A short-term technical rebound is possible.
However, unless gold breaks key resistance levels:
➡️ Any rebound should still be treated as a corrective move.
⏱ 1-Hour Chart Analysis
The Bollinger Bands continue opening downward.
Gold is trading near the lower band.
Short-term resistance:
🔴 4000-4015 USD
If price breaks above:
Next resistance:
🔥 4030-4040 USD
If resistance holds:
Gold may continue testing:
🟢 3960 USD
and
🟢 3920-3930 USD
🔥 Gold Trading Strategy | July 17
Current market view:
📉 Main trend: Bearish
📈 Short-term: Possible technical rebound
Trading approach:
Sell rebounds as the main strategy, buy dips as a secondary strategy.
📌 Gold Trading Plan
🔻 Short Strategy:
Sell zone:
🔥 4030-4050 USD
Entry condition:
Look for rejection signals near resistance.
Stop Loss:
🛑 4075 USD
Targets:
🎯 3980-3960 USD
Break below:
➡️ Hold for:
🎯 3940 USD
🟢 Long Opportunity:
If gold falls toward:
🔥 3960-3980 USD
and shows stabilization signals,
short-term buying opportunities can be considered.
💬 Market Discussion
Dear traders, what is your expectation for gold today? 🤔
1️⃣ Can gold hold the 3960 support zone and start a rebound? 📈
2️⃣ Or will sellers continue pushing gold toward 3940 and lower? 📉
Share your analysis in the comments below 👇
👍 Like for support
⭐ Follow for daily gold market updates
🔔 Stay tuned for real-time trading opportunities
Wishing everyone:
💰 Profitable Trading
📈 Consistent Results
🚀 Another successful trading day! Short 
Long
Gold Isn't Bullish Yet — Here's Why XAUUSD 19/07XAUUSD is showing signs of stabilization after successfully defending the 3,970–3,990 H4 Demand Zone, leading many traders to believe that a larger bullish reversal may already be be underway.
The problem?
Defending demand is only the first step. Price has yet to reclaim the key resistance levels required to confirm a meaningful shift in the higher-timeframe market structure.
Although selling pressure has eased following the recent liquidity sweep, Gold remains below the 4,120–4,140 H4 Order Block and the descending trendline. Until buyers can reclaim and hold above these barriers, the current advance should be viewed as a bullish retracement rather than a confirmed trend reversal.
For now, demand is holding.
But buyers still have to prove they can reclaim supply.
Currently
• Price successfully defended the 3,970–3,990 H4 Demand Zone
• Selling momentum has weakened after the recent liquidity sweep
• Buyers are attempting to establish a short-term recovery
• Internal market structure is beginning to stabilize
• Price remains below the 4,120–4,140 H4 Order Block
• Buy-Side Liquidity rests around 4,180–4,200
• Major H4 Supply remains at 4,300–4,380
Trading Plan
Bias: Bullish Retracement Within a Bearish Structure
Main Zone
• 3,970–3,990 → H4 Demand Zone
Execution Idea
As long as price continues respecting the 3,970–3,990 H4 Demand Zone, buyers may continue building a recovery toward the nearby H4 Order Block and resting Buy-Side Liquidity.
The first objective is the 4,120–4,140 H4 Order Block, which aligns with the descending trendline and represents the first major obstacle for buyers. If price can reclaim and hold above this area, the recovery could extend toward the 4,180–4,200 Buy-Side Liquidity, with a stronger bullish expansion potentially exposing the 4,300–4,380 H4 Supply Zone.
However, failure to defend the current demand zone would likely return control to sellers and reinforce the broader bearish structure.
Targets
→ TP1: 4,050 → Internal Resistance
→ TP2: 4,120–4,140 → H4 Order Block
→ TP3: 4,180–4,200 → Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL)
→ TP4: 4,300–4,380 → Major H4 Supply Zone
Invalidation
A confirmed H4 candle close below the 3,970–3,990 Demand Zone, followed by a loss of the recent swing low, would invalidate the bullish recovery scenario and increase the probability of bearish continuation.
Key Insight
Strong trends often begin with a successful defense of demand—but they are only confirmed when buyers reclaim supply. Until that happens, the current recovery should be treated as a retracement rather than a confirmed trend reversal.
Key Question
Is Gold quietly building a stronger base from demand, or is this simply another corrective bounce before the broader downtrend resumes? Long 
Comprehensive Bullish Support RationaleComprehensive Bullish Support Rationale
(Support levels by timeframe + Drivers)
🔵1. Macro Fundamentals: Triple confirmation of an inflation turning point; rate hike expectations cool significantly
Tuesday saw the first month-on-month CPI decline in six years; Wednesday’s PPI unexpectedly fell; and Friday’s University of Michigan one-year inflation expectation dropped from 4.6% to 4.2%. With inflation expectations weakening across the board—from upstream and downstream sectors to consumers—the market slashed the probability of a July rate hike from over 50% to under 15%. The upward trend in long-term US Treasury yields has paused for now, easing the opportunity cost pressure on non-yielding assets like gold; this serves as the core fundamental support for a short-term rebound next week.
🚀2. Capital Flows: Bearish selling pressure cleared; buying interest emerges at lows
The SPDR Gold ETF halted its streak of large-scale reductions, recording a small net inflow at the 3968 low, indicating institutional funds are no longer actively driving prices down;
Most long stop-loss orders from CFTC speculative funds were triggered after the price broke the 4000 mark; with short positions having secured substantial profits, concentrated short-covering on Friday provided buying support;
Central banks worldwide are maintaining a steady pace of gold purchases, with the People's Bank of China increasing its holdings for 20 consecutive months. The 3946 level has historically seen bulk buying by central banks, forming a "final line of defense" for the weekly-level bottom.
🌎3. Technicals: Long lower shadow on the weekly chart + short-term oversold conditions; ripe for a rebound
The weekly candle closed with a lower shadow exceeding $40, signaling strong buying support at lower levels and the exhaustion of unilateral bearish momentum;
Indicators on the 4-hour and 1-hour charts reached extreme oversold levels at the 3968 low, and the early stages of a bullish MACD divergence are emerging. The market is likely to prioritize a technical rebound upon opening next week, though this should be viewed strictly as a corrective bounce following a decline, not a reversal of the bear market. Long 
Logic of Comprehensive Bearish Dominance Logic of Comprehensive Bearish Dominance (Rebound Ceiling + Medium-to-Long-Term Downward Constraints)
🔷1. No Pivot in Fed Policy; Easing Won't Happen Quickly
Warsh has clearly stated that the fight against inflation cannot be halted based on just one or two months of data, and the rate-hike tool remains permanently available until the 2% inflation target is met. Half of the FOMC members raised their year-end rate projections in the June "dot plot," confirming that maintaining high rates for longer remains the Fed's core policy stance.
Gold lacks the foundation for a structural bull market while real interest rates remain high; any rebounds are merely technical retracements, naturally limiting the upside potential.
🌐2. Triple Mechanism of Persistent Selling Pressure; Rebounds Inevitably Face Sell-offs
① Programmed Selling from Yen Carry Trades: The interest rate spread between the US and Japan has not narrowed significantly, and the Bank of Japan's benchmark rate remains at 1%. Hedge funds that previously borrowed zero-interest yen to go long on gold automatically sell the metal to repay debt during every rally, capping the upside.
② Selling Pressure from "Trapped" Long Positions: Layers of long positions established at higher levels (4075–4105, 4160, and 4202) create a "ceiling" effect; as prices reach these ranges, concentrated stop-loss selling occurs.
③ Macro Capital Preferences: US dollar assets and Treasury bonds remain the top choice for institutional allocation, while gold serves merely as a safe-haven alternative; there is no influx of large-scale, long-term capital taking long positions.
💎3. Economic Fundamentals Lack Recessionary Signals; No Hard Conditions for Rate Cuts
High-frequency data—such as retail sales, initial jobless claims, and housing starts—demonstrate the US economy's resilience. There are no recessionary signals like mass layoffs or a collapse in consumer spending. Consequently, the Fed faces no compelling need to initiate rate cuts, leaving the bullish trend without a supporting medium-to-long-term narrative. Short 
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Weekly Chart – Elliott Wave Analysis | Final Supercycle Advance?RBOB Gasoline (RB1!) Weekly Chart – Elliott Wave Analysis | Final Supercycle Advance?
As one of crude oil's primary refined products, RBOB Gasoline has historically maintained a strong structural relationship with the broader oil market. Although its long-term historical data is less complete than crude oil itself, the existing price structure still provides a meaningful Elliott Wave framework.
My primary interpretation suggests that the market is currently developing the final motive wave of a larger Supercycle advance. Under this wave count, Waves (I) and (II) of Primary Wave V appear to be complete, while the current advance is likely forming Waves 1 and 2 of the larger Wave (III). If this interpretation proves correct, the market could be entering the strongest portion of the bullish trend, where momentum typically accelerates and price expansion becomes more pronounced.
One noteworthy characteristic is the strength of Wave (I), which advanced with exceptional momentum. The subsequent Wave (II) completed its correction almost precisely near the territory of the previous impulse's internal Wave 4, a behavior that aligns well with one of Elliott Wave's well-known guidelines and may indicate that the dominant trend remains intact.
From a Fibonacci perspective, I remain open to the possibility that Wave (III) may extend only to approximately 61.8% of the length projected from the previous motive sequence. If so, the final Wave (V) could terminate near the 78.6% Fibonacci extension relative to the completed (I)-(II) structure. While this would represent a more conservative bullish outcome than many extended fifth-wave scenarios, it would still be fully consistent with a valid impulsive structure.
Another important technical observation is the structure of Wave (II) itself. It appears to have unfolded as a Classic Zigzag, with Wave C terminating in an Ending Diagonal. Once this terminal pattern was completed, price quickly resumed its impulsive advance. Within Elliott Wave Principle, this type of transition is often viewed as a strong indication that the correction has likely ended and that the broader bull market is resuming with renewed strength.
As always, this remains a probability-based Elliott Wave scenario rather than a prediction. The market will ultimately determine whether this wave count continues to validate itself or whether an alternative structure begins to emerge.
Patterns whisper. I listen.
— Mr. Nobody
CFDs on Brent Crude Oil
Jun 6
Crude Oil: The Long-Term Elliott Wave Projection
