Long
XAUUSD: Bullish Wave 5 May Start After Pullback
Gold is showing a clear recovery structure after completing the previous bearish cycle near the lower area. From Kelly’s view, the chart is now shifting into a bullish Elliott sequence, but price may still need one corrective pullback before wave 5 continues higher.
The key idea is simple: gold is bullish in the short term, but the better setup may come from a clean retest of the buy zone, not from chasing the current push.
⟡ Market structure
The chart shows gold has reacted strongly from the lower base near 3,960 and created a sequence of higher lows. Price has already broken back above the descending pressure line, which is an important sign that sellers are losing control in the short-term structure.
Gold is now trading around 4,075 after a strong recovery move. However, price is approaching the 4,090–4,100 sell wave 4 zone, so a short correction from this area would be normal.
The main support to watch is the 4,040–4,050 buy zone wave 5. If gold pulls back into this area and buyers defend it, the next upside leg may continue towards the Fibonacci 2.618 target near 4,145–4,155.
➤ Key levels
◌ 4,040–4,050: buy zone wave 5 and key pullback area
◌ 4,075: current price reaction area
◌ 4,090–4,100: sell wave 4 / short-term resistance
◌ 4,138: previous Fibonacci reference zone
◌ 4,145–4,155: final wave 5 completion area
◌ Below 4,030: area where the bullish setup starts to weaken
◌ Below 4,000: area where the wave count needs reassessment
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to be building a bullish 5-wave recovery after the previous bearish structure ended.
Wave 1 created the first upside reaction from the low.
Wave 2 corrected back but held above the base.
Wave 3 expanded strongly and pushed gold back above the broken trendline.
Wave 4 may now form as a controlled pullback into the 4,040–4,050 buy zone.
If that zone holds, wave 5 may begin and aim for the 4,145–4,155 completion area.
This is why Kelly would not chase the current price directly into resistance. The stronger setup is to wait for wave 4 to finish, then look for confirmation that wave 5 is starting.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for gold to pull back into the buy zone wave 5 and show bullish confirmation.
Entry zone: 4,040–4,050 if bullish confirmation appears
Stop loss: below the confirmed wave 4 low or below 4,030
Take profit 1: 4,090–4,100
Take profit 2: 4,138
Take profit 3: 4,145–4,155
Alternative scenario: if gold breaks above 4,100 without a pullback and holds strongly, price may continue directly towards the wave 5 target. In that case, a retest of 4,090–4,100 as support would become the cleaner continuation setup.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, the bullish recovery structure is improving, but the market is now close to a short-term resistance zone. That means the best plan is patience.
If gold corrects into 4,040–4,050 and buyers defend the zone, the next wave 5 move may continue towards the higher Fibonacci target.
Gold is building a bullish Elliott structure.
A controlled pullback may prepare the next move higher.
Share your view below.
Long
Gold Is Trapping Both Buyers and Sellers.Everyone sees the symmetrical triangle—but the real battle is happening around liquidity, not the trendline.
Gold continues to hold above the 4,000.000 psychological support while price compresses into a tightening H1 structure. With Q2 GDP and Core PCE approaching, institutions appear to be reducing directional exposure and instead accumulating liquidity on both sides of the range. This kind of environment often precedes the largest expansion moves.
From a Smart Money perspective, the structure remains constructive. The reaction from 4,000 formed a strong institutional defense, followed by a sequence of higher lows that confirms buyers are gradually absorbing supply. However, price is still capped beneath the descending trendline and the 4,040–4,050 Fibonacci confluence, meaning bullish continuation is not confirmed yet.
This creates two clear execution scenarios.
If buyers reclaim 4,050 with a decisive H1 close and convert the trendline into support, the current compression could evolve into a liquidity-driven breakout targeting 4,120, where the next major HTF supply and resting liquidity are located.
On the other hand, failure to defend 4,000 would invalidate the current accumulation thesis. A clean H1 close below this level would likely trigger resting stop-losses beneath the triangle and open the door for a deeper markdown toward lower demand.
📍 Bullish Bias: Above 4,000.
🎯 Confirmation: H1 breakout above 4,050.
⚠️ Invalidation: H1 close below 4,000.
In my view, this isn't a market to predict—it's a market to let structure confirm. The first clean break from this compression is likely to define Gold's next impulsive move. Long 
Long 
Gold Is Rallying—But Smart Money Wants One More PullbackGold continues to recover after successfully defending the higher-timeframe Order Block around 4,000, printing consecutive Bullish Breaks of Structure (BOS) on the H1 chart. Momentum has clearly shifted in favor of buyers, but price is now approaching the first major supply zone where profit-taking and fresh sell orders may appear.
From a Smart Money Concepts perspective, the market has transitioned from accumulation into expansion. The recent impulsive rally left behind a bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG) near 4,010–4,020, which could become the preferred retracement area if buyers decide to reload before another push higher.
Fundamentally, markets remain focused on expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's rate path. Investors are also watching upcoming U.S. economic releases and Fed speakers for fresh clues on inflation and interest rates. Any dovish tone or weaker-than-expected economic data would likely support gold, while stronger data could trigger profit-taking after the recent rally.
Technical Outlook (H1)
📈 Bullish Structure
Multiple consecutive BOS confirm buyers remain in control.
Price is trading above the recent Order Block.
Momentum favors continuation while above the latest higher low.
Key Resistance
4,075–4,080 (Supply Zone)
4,098–4,103 (Major HTF Resistance)
Key Support
4,010–4,020 (Bullish FVG)
Psychological support around 4,000
Bullish Scenario
If buyers break and hold above 4,080, gold could continue toward 4,100+, targeting the higher liquidity resting above the previous highs.
Bearish Scenario
If price rejects from resistance, expect a pullback into the 4,010–4,020 FVG. As long as this imbalance holds, buyers may attempt another continuation leg. A sustained break below the FVG would weaken the current bullish structure.
Gold has reclaimed bullish momentum with multiple BOS confirmations. However, the market is approaching a significant supply zone where volatility may increase. Watching how price reacts between 4,075–4,103 will likely determine the next impulsive move. Short 
Gold Targets Weak-High Liquidity — Bullish Expansion in PlayMarket Thesis:
XAU/USD is showing a clear bullish shift on the 15-minute chart, advancing from the visible demand structure near 4,000 after multiple bullish CHoCH signals. Price is now trading around 4,066.18, directly beneath a marked weak high near 4,083.
The immediate objective is likely the liquidity resting above that weak high. A confirmed break could open the path toward the major overhead supply zone around 4,112–4,121.
Visible Confluences — 15-Minute Timeframe:
Current market price: 4,066.18
Bullish CHoCH sequence visible during the recovery from the 3,970–4,000 region.
Recent bullish structural expansion above approximately 4,040
Marked weak-high liquidity around 4,083
Major overhead supply zone: 4,112–4,121
Primary visible demand zone: 3,997–4,008
Marked strong low around 3,996
Secondary lower demand zone: 3,962–3,972
Price remains bullish while holding above the recent structural area near 4,040
Trade Scenarios:
Setup 1: Bullish Pullback Continuation
Direction: Buy
Entry Zone: 3,998–4,007
Trigger: Lower-timeframe bullish CHoCH, rejection wick, or strong bullish displacement candle from the visible demand zone
Stop Loss: 3,988
TP1: 4,040
TP2: 4,083
TP3: 4,114
This is the preferred deep-pullback scenario because the entry is positioned around the visible 15-minute demand and strong-low structure.
Setup 2: Weak-High Breakout
Direction: Buy
Entry Zone: 4,084–4,089
Trigger: A decisive 15-minute close above 4,083, followed by a successful lower-timeframe retest and bullish continuation signal
Stop Loss: 4,071
TP1: 4,100
TP2: 4,113
TP3: 4,121
Avoid entering on the initial liquidity spike. Confirmation above the weak high is essential because price may sweep 4,083 before reversing.
Setup 3: Supply-Zone Reversal
Direction: Sell
Entry Zone: 4,112–4,121
Trigger: Liquidity sweep into the visible supply zone, followed by bearish lower-timeframe CHoCH or strong bearish momentum candles
Stop Loss: 4,129
TP1: 4,083
TP2: 4,040
TP3: 4,005
This setup becomes invalid if price establishes sustained 15-minute acceptance above 4,121.
Refinement Tip:
For the best risk-to-reward profile, monitor the identified 15-minute zones on the 1-minute, 3-minute, or 5-minute charts. Wait for liquidity interaction, an LTF CHoCH, and decisive momentum confirmation before execution. Do not enter solely because price reaches a level.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
Trading financial markets involves significant risk, and no market outcome is guaranteed. This analysis reflects the visible 15-minute structure and probability-based scenarios at the time of the chart. It is provided strictly for educational and analytical purposes and should not be treated as personalized financial advice. Always define risk before entering a position and independently validate every setup. Gold H2: Uptrend after breaking the price channel!XAUUSD broke out of the upper boundary of the falling channel and formed a bullish BOS around the $4,050 region. The price currently remains near $4,067, while the RSI crossed 60 suggesting buying momentum is improving.
The $3,990–4,025 zone has absorbed selling pressure many times and is now an important support base for the recovery structure.
Fundamentally, gold is being supported as the prospect of US-Iran negotiations helps oil prices cool down, reducing inflation concerns and pressure to maintain high interest rates. The USD also weakened slightly during the session, creating more conditions for gold to recover.
On H2, as long as the price maintains the 3,990–4,025 USD zone, the breakout is still considered valid.
A correction that holds support, followed by a close above $4,080, could pave the way for XAUUSD to move towards $4,120–$4,160 before testing the target top around $4,204. Long 
Gold Analysis & Trading Strategy | July 21🌐Hello traders! I’m Jack Blackwell, with 15 years of experience in analysis and trading in the futures and forex markets. Below are my technical analysis views based on the current XAUUSD (4H and 1H timeframes) chart structure.
✅ 4-Hour Trend Analysis
Gold has broken above the upper boundary of the descending channel and moved above the MA5, MA10, and MA20, shifting the 4-hour structure from bearish to sideways-to-bullish. The price is currently trading above the upper Bollinger Band, showing strong short-term momentum. However, the rally has been relatively fast, so a pullback to confirm the breakout may occur. As long as gold holds above the 4038–4015 area, it may continue rising toward 4095–4100 and possibly 4145.
✅ 1-Hour Trend Analysis
The 1-hour moving averages are in a bullish alignment. After breaking above 4038 and 4068, gold reached a high of 4084.11, and the short-term trend remains bullish. However, the price is currently near the upper Bollinger Band, and a pullback has already appeared at higher levels, indicating clear resistance around 4080–4084. If the price holds above 4068–4060, another upward move remains possible. If 4038 is broken, gold may pull back toward 4025–4010.
🔴 Key Resistance Levels
● 4078–4084: Short-term resistance area
● 4095–4105: Psychological resistance area
● 4118–4125: Structural resistance area
● Around 4145: Important medium-term resistance
🟢 Key Support Levels
● 4068–4060: Pullback support area
● 4050–4038: Key support area
● 4025–4015: 4-hour MA20 support area
● 3981–3976: Important support area
✅ Trading Strategy Reference
🔰 Buy-on-Pullback Strategy
👉 Buy Zone 1: 4065–4060
👉 Buy Zone 2: 4050–4038
🎯 Targets: 4080 → 4095 → 4118 → 4145
🔰 Short-Term Sell Strategy at Higher Levels
👉 Sell Zone 1: 4080–4090
👉 Sell Zone 2: 4095–4105
🎯 Targets: 4068 → 4058 → 4038 → 4025
⚠️ Both the 4-hour and 1-hour trends have strengthened significantly, so long positions remain aligned with the broader short-term direction. However, gold has already risen rapidly and moved above the upper Bollinger Band, making it unsuitable to chase long positions blindly above 4070. A more cautious approach is to wait for a pullback toward 4068–4060 or 4050–4038 and consider buying only after support is confirmed.
🔔 If you find my analysis helpful, please like, share, and stay tuned for future updates. Your support is my motivation to continue sharing professional insights. Wishing everyone smooth trading and steady profits! UKOIL | Brent Oil Breaks $90, Are Triple Digits Next?By analyzing the #BrentOil chart on the weekly timeframe, we can see that price continued to follow the expected bullish scenario and finally broke above the psychological $90 level, reaching as high as $91.5.
Currently, Brent Oil is trading around $88 after a minor correction. In my view, this pullback may remain temporary, and if buyers step in again, we could see another bullish move toward higher levels.
The nearest demand zones are located around $86 – $88, followed by stronger support between $82 – $84. On the upside, the next targets to monitor are $92, followed by $95, $98, and then the major psychological level at $100.
If geopolitical tensions continue and supply risks remain elevated, targets above $100 may not be far out of reach. For now, my broader bias remains bullish after this short-term correction.
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban XAUUSD — Sell the 4,020–4,030 Retest
Fundamental Analysis
Gold remains sensitive to USD momentum, Treasury yields, and shifts in Fed rate expectations. Softer U.S. data could support a short-term recovery, but renewed dollar strength may keep the broader pressure tilted to the downside.
Technical Analysis
On the 1H chart, XAUUSD is trading near 4,004.55 below the marked 4,020–4,030 resistance zone. This area previously acted as support and may now become a sell zone after the breakdown. If price recovers into this region and fails to reclaim it, bearish continuation could target the strong support at 3,982.80 before extending toward the descending trendline near 3,925–3,930.
Important Key Levels
Current price: 4,004.55
Main sell zone: 4,020–4,030
Short-term support: 3,982.80
Short-term resistance: 4,020–4,030
Liquidity area: 4,090–4,108
Main target: 3,925–3,930
Invalidation: above 4,044.50
Trading Scenario
Main Sell Setup
Entry: 4,020–4,030
Stop Loss: 4,044.50
Take Profit 1: 3,982.80
Take Profit 2: 3,960
Take Profit 3: 3,925.80
Sell Condition
Wait for price to retest the 4,020–4,030 zone and show bearish rejection. A long upper wick, bearish engulfing candle, failed reclaim, or 1H close back below the zone may confirm seller pressure. If price breaks and holds above 4,044.50, the sell setup is no longer valid.
Overall View
The main bias remains bearish while XAUUSD stays below the former support zone and continues to respect the broader descending structure. The preferred plan is to wait for a recovery into 4,020–4,030 rather than chase price near current levels, with 3,982.80 as the first reaction area and 3,925.80 as the main downside target.
Do you also see 4,020–4,030 as the key sell zone, or are you waiting for a deeper liquidity sweep first? Short 
Short 
XAUUSD: Has it escaped its predicament?Gold prices didn't fluctuate much yesterday. After touching the resistance zone of 4020-4040, they fell again and finally closed near the 4000 mark. Based on the sell point I provided, this offered a small profit opportunity.
Today, gold opened with a rebound, mainly due to news of a 10-day ceasefire in the Middle East. Additionally, the negative factors have been largely priced in, limiting downside potential below 4000. Concerns about a rebound in inflation are also easing, with the June CPI data showing a lower threshold, ruling out a short-term Fed rate hike.
However, the ceasefire can only affect the price rebound in the short term and cannot change the overall trend. Unless it breaks through 4100, the rebound will not open up further, and only a break above 4200 will turn the rebound into a reversal.
Today, we can pay attention to the resistance around 4070-4080, where short positions can be considered.
Also, pay attention to the support around 4025; a pullback to this level can be considered for long positions.
These are my views on the gold market today, for your reference! Short 
Long 
Title: XAU/USD Bullish Reversal from Strong Order BlockXAU/USD is approaching a major decision zone after completing a prolonged bearish trend within a well-defined descending channel on the 4H timeframe. The overall market structure has remained bearish for several weeks, printing multiple Market Structure Shifts (MSS) to the downside while continuously respecting the descending trendline. However, the current price action is now testing a significant Strong Order Block around the 3900–4000 support region, where institutional demand is likely to enter the market.
This support zone aligns with the lower boundary of the descending channel, creating a strong technical confluence for a potential bullish reversal. The repeated rejection from this area suggests that sellers are gradually losing momentum while buyers continue defending the zone. If bulls maintain control, this could mark the beginning of a larger recovery phase.
The first obstacle for buyers is the nearby descending trendline, which has acted as dynamic resistance throughout the decline. A clean breakout above this trendline would confirm a bullish shift in momentum and could trigger aggressive buying pressure. Once the breakout is confirmed, price may target the first Strong Resistance around 4200, followed by the next major resistance near 4350, where previous supply and liquidity are concentrated.
If bullish momentum remains strong, the market could continue toward the Strong FVG & Support zone around 4550, which previously acted as an important imbalance area. A successful reclaim of this Fair Value Gap would significantly strengthen the bullish market structure and increase the probability of continuation toward the higher Strong FVG around 4765.
From a Smart Money Concepts perspective, the higher liquidity objective remains the Buy Side Liquidity resting above the previous swing highs near 4850–4870. Large institutions often drive price toward these liquidity pools after accumulating positions at discount levels. This makes the current Order Block one of the most important accumulation zones on the chart.
Traders should monitor price action closely for a confirmed breakout above the descending trendline and a bullish Market Structure Shift before expecting continuation. Until then, the marked Order Block remains the key area to watch, while the upside roadmap favors sequential targets at 4200 → 4350 → 4550 → 4765, with the ultimate objective being the Buy Side Liquidity above the recent highs. XAUUSD Sell Plan: Sellers Load 4,054 to 4,060, Target 3,982Bearish. Full stop. This breakout is inducement, not reversal.
Trend has been down since July 5th. Two ChoCH, one BOS, all bearish, all confirmed. Nothing about this pullback changes that structure. Price broke the trendline into 4,025 to 4,035, sure. But that's exactly where retail gets trapped, buying a broken level like it means something on its own.
Here's the liquidity logic. Buy stops are stacked above 4,054.400, the Strong High. Price wants that pool before it does anything else. This is the third time trendline resistance gets tested since the early July high. First two times, hard rejection, fresh BOS lower each time. No reason this time plays out differently. Thin volume on this move confirms it. No real conviction behind the breakout, just liquidity draw.
Main zone sits at 4,054.400 to 4,060.000. That's where I'm selling. Confirmation comes from a clean retest and rejection at that zone, not blind entries the second price touches it. Wait for the reaction. Retest, rejection, continuation, that's the play.
Target sits at 3,982.630, the prior BOS low, resting liquidity waiting to get run.
Invalidation is simple. A solid H1 close above 4,060 to 4,070 and this idea is dead. A close above 4,100 and forget the whole bias, structure shifts entirely.
Only counter scenario worth mentioning: a scalp bounce off 3,982 to 3,990 if price gets there fast and reacts. Not a reversal. Not a trend change. A bounce, nothing more. Anyone treating that as a buy signal for a new uptrend is reading the chart wrong.
This is a bull trap dressed up as a breakout. Structure never changed. Liquidity above just got engineered.
Who's still buying this move up here? Short 
Long 
Short
Short 
Long 
Long 
Gold is entering a prime buying opportunity!
We established long positions at 3970 last Friday and added longs at 4005 today; the strategy remains to stick with a bullish bias.
Regarding the broader trend for gold, as previously analyzed, the price is currently in an upward cycle with a short-term floor established at 3943. After spiking to 4202 early in the month, the price underwent a secondary test of the lows. Our analysis emphasized strong support in the 3960–3890 range, limiting downside potential and favoring a staged accumulation of long positions for a swing trade, with initial targets at 4300–4500.
The price rebounded from 3960 last Friday; during today's Asian session, it retraced to 3982 before breaking higher, currently trading at 4021—validating our outlook. The 4-hour chart structure remains bullish, and we anticipate continued gains into the evening session. Short-term support lies at 4010, with strong support at 4000; a break below these levels targets the morning lows of 3990–3982. Short-term resistance is at 4030–4040, with strong resistance at 4050–4060; a breakout targets the weekly chart's MA4 level at 4080.
In terms of trading strategy: having gone long at 3970 last Friday and 4005 today, we will maintain a bullish stance; any changes to the plan will be communicated during the trading session. Long 
Long 
XAUUSD Eyes 4,094 Resistance After Bullish BreakoutGold (XAU/USD) on the 2H timeframe has confirmed a bullish Change of Character (CHoCH) followed by strong impulsive buying, signaling that buyers have regained short-term control. Price has broken above the recent consolidation and is now trading inside a key supply/resistance zone between 4,070–4,090.
The immediate resistance is the R1 Pivot at 4,094, which aligns with the highlighted supply area. A clean breakout and sustained close above this level could trigger the next bullish expansion toward 4,120 and potentially higher.
However, if sellers defend the resistance zone, a healthy pullback toward the 50% Fibonacci retracement (4,042) and the 61.8% Fibonacci level (4,032) is likely. This area also coincides with previous resistance that may now act as support, making it an attractive buy-on-dip zone.
As long as price remains above the 4,000 support, the overall short-term market structure remains bullish. A successful retest of the Fibonacci support could provide the momentum needed for another leg higher toward 4,094 and 4,120.
Key Levels:
Resistance: 4,094 → 4,120
Support: 4,042 → 4,032
Invalidation: Below 4,000
Bias: Bullish 📈 – Prefer buying on pullbacks while price holds above key Fibonacci support. Long 
