Futures market
XAGUSD | Silver Retesting ResistanceSilver has recovered strongly from the major support zone around 62.40 and is now pressing against a key resistance area near 63.80 - 63.90.
The recent structure shows buyers defending lower levels while price continues forming higher lows. A successful breakout and acceptance above the highlighted resistance zone could open the door for a move toward the next liquidity areas marked on the chart.
🎯 Bullish Targets
✅ Target 1: 64.35
✅ Target 2: 64.70
✅ Target 3: 65.30
The bullish thesis remains valid while buyers continue defending recent higher-low structures. Monitoring price action around the current resistance will be crucial, as a confirmed breakout may support continuation toward the projected targets.
Note: This is a personal market view and not financial advice. Always manage risk accordingly.
GOLD TRADE Long-PlanHey guys,
welcome to my trading-diary.
Today I expect a move up ahead the FED Decision as we might see some manipulation to trap buyers into the market. If the FED is really going to come up with rate-hikes as expected we probably see another move down. BUT... as iti s already priced in, we need to be aware of the FEDs statement. Any hints to further upcoming rate-hikes will be crucial for the market.
If thats the case we will another journey of a pumping USD.
Nontheless, Gold could catch some liquidity at the upside today ahead of the FED.
If I get a setup I will pst it here as an UPDATE!
Let`s see what we get.
GOLD / USD — 1H Technical AnalysisCurrent price: ~4,342
Bias: 🔴 Bearish below 4,443
The 1H chart shows a contracting symmetrical triangle following the sharp decline from the 4,500 area. Price has completed the A–B–C–D structure and is now breaking below the lower boundary, increasing the probability of a bearish continuation.
📉 Bearish Setup
Entry Zone: 4,350 – 4,370
This area can act as a retest/supply zone after the breakdown.
Stop Loss: 4,443
A sustained move above 4,443 would invalidate the bearish setup and indicate a potential recovery back toward the upper part of the pattern.
Targets:
🎯 TP1: 4,158
🎯 TP2: 4,145
The 4,145–4,158 zone is particularly important because it represents the major horizontal support shown on the chart.
🔑 Key Levels
Level Role
4,443 Major resistance / invalidation
4,400–4,420 Near-term resistance
4,350–4,370 Short entry / retest zone
4,300 First psychological support
4,158–4,145 Major target/support zone
📊 Risk/Reward
Using the midpoint entry around 4,360:
Risk: 4,443 − 4,360 = 83 points
Reward to 4,158: 202 points
➡️ Approx. R:R = 1 : 2.43
To TP2 at 4,145, the R:R improves to roughly 1 : 2.59.
🧠 TradingView Interpretation
The important confirmation is not simply the price touching 4,350. The stronger bearish signal is:
Triangle breakdown → retest of 4,350–4,370 → rejection → continuation lower.
If Gold manages to reclaim 4,400 and especially closes a 1H candle above 4,443, the bearish thesis becomes invalid.
Trading plan:
SELL 4,350–4,370
SL 4,443
TP1 4,158
TP2 4,145
Overall: 🔴 Bearish continuation setup, with 4,443 as the key line in the sand.
Gold - $4800 now possibleGold futures (1D) are testing a major decision point at $4,456, where two pitchfork structures overlap (U-MLH 1/4 Confluence).
- Red Pitchfork (Descending): Defines the macro corrective channel from the Feb/March highs. Price is testing the upper boundary line ($4,450-$4,500), which acts as critical overhead resistance.
- White Pitchfork (Ascending): Defines the recovery trend from the July swing low ($3,950). Price has reached the upper quarter median line (U-MLH 1/4).
PITCHFORK SCENARIOS & RULE #1
- Bull Case (Rule #1 Continuation): A daily close above the $4,500 confluence zone clears the red channel. Following Pitchfork Rule #1, price will target the White Centerline (CL), currently projected near $4,850-$4,900. Because of the upward angle of the white CL, this target moves higher each day price moves forward.
- Bear Case (Confluence Rejection): A failure to break $4,500 signals a rejection off resistance. The downside target becomes the White L-MLH around $4,150-$4,200 as dynamic support. A break below $4,150 invalidates the white pitchfork and opens risk toward $3,750.
KEY LEVELS TO WATCH
- Immediate Resistance: $4,450 - $4,500
- Upside Target (White CL): $4,850+
- Key Support (White L-MLH): $4,150 - $4,200
GOLD BULLISH REVERSAL — Target 4355
Gold is showing a strong rebound from the **4291 support zone**, with buyers stepping back in after the recent decline. The price is currently around **4315**, suggesting bullish momentum could continue if support holds.
📌 **Entry Zone:** 4291–4315
🎯 **Target:** 4355.616
🛑 **Invalidation:** Sustained break below 4291
The setup favors a move toward **4355.616** as long as the 4291 support remains protected. Trade with proper risk management.
Gold Buy Setup🔥 **#XAUUSD | GOLD BUY SETUP 📈**
**A high-probability bullish setup is forming on Gold!** 🟢
Price has shown a clear **Break of Structure (BOS)** followed by a consolidation phase, indicating potential bullish continuation.
📊 **Pair:** XAUUSD (Gold)
📈 **Direction:** BUY
🎯 **Target:** 4,405.139
🛡️ **Stop Loss:** 4,311.317
🔍 **Key Zone:** Consolidation breakout & bullish continuation
Patience and proper risk management are essential. Let the setup play out according to the plan. 🚀
#Gold #XAUUSD #ForexTrading #BuySetup #TradingView #PriceAction #BOS #SmartMoneyConcepts
Gold and a strong renewed riseBased on the previous analysis, gold has reached the first entry zone for a rebound toward the projected targets. For tonight, I anticipate news indicating that interest rates will remain unchanged; this should drive gold prices up, create a re-entry opportunity, and fuel a rally toward higher targets through the end of the year.
We have to wait and see
Stay with me and be profitable
Do you have any questions? Ask me in the comments
Don't forget to introduce me to your friends so that we can all profit together?
What do you have in mind that I should analyze for you? Comment for me.
Thank you for paying your full attention to my analysis
XAUUSD Buy Setup – Bullish Move Toward 4428
Gold is showing a bullish recovery from the lower support area, with price forming higher lows and pushing upward. The chart indicates a **buy setup**, with momentum targeting the marked resistance zone around **4428.64**. A sustained move above the recent highs could support continuation toward the target.
**Target:** 🎯 **4428.64**
XAUUSD — FOMC Breakout Buy Setup | Liquidity Sweep ContinuationGold has been in a strong descending channel since the sharp drop from the 4,400 highs, printing lower highs and lower lows across multiple sessions. However, price has recently broken above the descending trendline resistance that capped every prior rally attempt — signaling a potential shift in short-term structure. This breakout is occurring right into a major FOMC data release, adding volatility and liquidity-driven momentum to the move.
🟢 1. BUY SIDE LIQUIDITY (~4,400+)
A large pool of resting buy stops sits above the original swing high near 4,400. This untapped liquidity remains the primary draw for price — the market has a strong tendency to seek out untouched liquidity pools, and this is the most significant one on the chart. Expect price to gravitate toward this level as the bullish move develops.
🔺 2. FOMC DATA SETUP (Trendline Break)
The descending trendline connecting the lower highs since the initial drop has now been decisively broken to the upside. This break of structure (BOS) is a strong signal that the corrective/bearish phase may be transitioning into a new bullish leg. Because this break coincides with FOMC, the move carries extra weight — news-driven volatility often confirms or accelerates structural shifts like this one.
⬛ 3. ORDER BLOCK (~4,280–4,300)
A clean bullish order block formed near the recent swing low, right at the point where sell-side liquidity was last swept. This block represents the last point of aggressive institutional buying before the impulsive rally began — the origin of the current bullish leg and a key zone that, if retested, should hold as support.
🟫 4. STRONG FVG (~4,320–4,345)
Just above the order block, a Strong Fair Value Gap formed during the impulsive push higher. This imbalance zone is currently being respected as price consolidates — the tight, choppy price action here reflects a healthy retracement/re-accumulation phase before continuation, rather than a reversal.
🔴 5. SELL SIDE LIQUIDITY (~4,260)
Located at the base of the entire structure, this liquidity pool was swept during the final leg down, providing the fuel (stop-hunt) for the current bullish reversal. With this liquidity already taken, downside pressure is reduced, reinforcing the bullish bias going forward.
🎯 TRADE THESIS
Price has broken the multi-day descending trendline, confirmed by a base at the Order Block and consolidation inside a Strong FVG. With sell-side liquidity already swept below and buy-side liquidity still resting above 4,400, the path of least resistance favors continuation to the upside — especially with FOMC volatility acting as the catalyst to push price into that untapped liquidity zone.
📍 Entry: 4341.00
🛑 SL: 4322.61
🎯 TP1: 4360 | TP2: 4375 | TP3: 4390 | TP4 (Final): 4403.08
XAUUSD Bullish Rebound from Support Zone*
Gold (XAUUSD) is showing a potential bullish rebound from the strong **4260–4265 support zone**. Price has respected this area and is attempting to recover above the descending trendline. If bullish momentum continues and resistance is broken, the next upside move could target the **4320–4325 zone**.
🎯 **Target: 4324.66**
🛡️ **Key Support: 4260–4265**
📈 **Bias: Bullish above support**
Gold Bullish Rebound from Support 2 (XAUUSD) has reached the **Support 2 zone around 4,440–4,460**, where buyers may step in after the sharp sell-off. The setup looks for a bullish reaction from this support, with price potentially recovering toward the previous breakdown area. A sustained hold above Support 2 would strengthen the buy setup.
🎯 **Buy Target: 4,528.87**
🛡️ **Key Support: 4,440–4,460**
📈 **Bias: Bullish rebound from Support 2**
USOIL (WTI Crude Oil): Bullish Liquidity Sweep & Demand Re-test Following a strong bullish surge that expanded through multiple Break of Structure (BOS) levels, price swept Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) near 106.65 before pulling back sharply to mitigate internal demand and sweep local Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) around 102.44. Price is currently tapping into a high-confluence discount region, offering a long setup aligned with the broader institutional trend.
Institutional Market Structure (SMC) Breakdown
Liquidity Sweep (SSL Captured): Price aggressively raided the sell-side liquidity pool around 102.44, clearing out weak long stops and filling institutional orders into key support.
Fair Value Gap (FVG) Confluence: The primary structural accumulation zone sits inside the $101.00–$102.00 imbalance block, aligning with prior structural demand.
Order Flow Alignment: The higher timeframe macro structure remains firmly bullish after successive BOS markers on the expansion leg. This current move represents a deep discount retracement to target equal highs and fresh Buy-Side Liquidity.
Execution Plan
Trade Type: Long / Buy Limit Setup
Entry Zone: $102.50 – $102.55
Stop Loss (SL): $100.66 (below the previous low & sub-101.00 liquidity sweep level)
Take Profit (TP / BSL Target): $106.65 (High-timeframe Buy-Side Liquidity pool)
Risk-to-Reward (R:R): ~2.17 R
Fundamental Drivers
Geopolitical Risk Premium: Supply disruption fears in the Middle East and physical shipping bottlenecks through key global chokepoints maintain an underlying bid under physical crude markets.
Inventory Noise vs. Macro Trend: Today's temporary intraday pullback was triggered by a short-term U.S. commercial inventory build, creating a transient discount within an otherwise tight global balance.
Disclaimer: Educational analysis based on Smart Money Concepts (SMC) principles. Always enforce strict risk management.
USOIL (WTI) 1H Analysis: Bullish Market Shift & Golden OTE SetupCrude Oil (USOIL) on the 1-Hour Timeframe has shifted structure to the upside following a Market Shift (MSS) above key intermediate highs. Price is now pulling back toward the Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) Fibonacci levels (0.618 - 0.786) to sweep discount liquidity before targeting major upside Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) pools.
📊 Key Technical Analysis
Market Structure Shift (MSS):
USOIL swept low-side liquidity ($$$) around the $74.00–$75.00 level and broke structural swing highs, marking a clear bullish shift.
Fibonacci Discount / OTE Zone:
A retracement into the 0.618, 0.705, and 0.786 Fibonacci retracement zone ($79.95 – $81.30) offers a high-confluence long entry aligned with the 100 EMA (~81.294).
Upside Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) Targets:
TP1: $86.20 (Previous Swing High BSL)
TP2: $90.50 (Intermediate Liquidity Pool)
TP3: $93.478 (Major High BSL)
🎯 Trade Parameters
Bias: Bullish Re-entry / Continuation
Buy Entry Zone: $79.95 – $81.30 (Fibonacci OTE & 100 EMA Confluence)
Stop Loss (SL): $77.746 (Below structural swing low)
Take Profit 1 (TP1): $86.20
Take Profit 2 (TP2): $90.50
Take Profit 3 (TP3): $93.478
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is strictly for educational purposes and is not financial advice. Always practice proper risk management.
#USOIL #WTI #CrudeOil #Forex #SmartMoneyConcepts #SMC #TradingView #PriceAction #OrderBlock #TradingSignals
17/09/2026 Hello Nation!
This is the H4 chart, about 1 hour before FOMC.
I hardly trade during major news sessions, but I do like to observe what the market does. The way I trade is mainly based on technical analysis, not news fundamentals — just simple chart reading and understanding price action.
Back to the charts.
Last Friday, we started bullish. During the US session, Gold made the high of the day. That Friday high later became important as liquidity, with the move contributing to Monday’s bearish structure.
On Monday, Gold opened sideways during the early session before continuing lower and breaking Friday’s low.
At that point, Monday’s low became the lowest point of the week.
Towards the US session, Gold started moving sideways and continued into Tuesday. We saw inside-bar candles one after another.
But Tuesday’s low was higher than Monday’s low.
This caught my attention.
If sellers were still strongly in control, we would expect Tuesday to push below Monday’s low. Instead, the low held higher — suggesting buyers were starting to step in.
Then came Wednesday.
Early in the day, Gold broke Tuesday’s high.
Buyers took control.
Wednesday’s low is also higher than yesterday’s low, giving us another indication of developing bullish structure.
Not only that, Gold also took out Monday’s high.
With the momentum we had today, we formed an imbalance on the move.
And now, right before FOMC, Gold is consolidating.
So the question is:
Will Gold continue pushing higher and eventually take out Friday’s high?
Or…
Will Gold blast lower, clear the imbalance and take out the liquidity below?
Nobody knows.
That’s why I prefer to let the chart show me what it wants to do rather than trying to predict the news.
Leave a comment and share your thoughts — what are you seeing on the chart?
If you are trading FOMC tonight, all the best.
Festival of Margin Call. 😂
Goodnight,
Mann
Brent Crude Oil | Is Wave III Expanding?⏱️ Reading time: About 2 minutes
In our previous oil analyses, the focus has always been on one simple question:
What structure is the market building?
On the 2H Brent chart, the move developing from the major low continues to show an impulsive character. Price has now reached an area where the structure may provide much more information about the higher-degree wave.
In the bullish scenario, the current advance could be part of a higher-degree Wave III. If so, the internal structures should continue developing progressively and impulsively, while a break above 105.80 could provide an important confirmation for this path.
If this behavior continues, 126.27, 139.46, 147.77, 160.76, and 182.16 are the key areas I will be watching as the higher-degree structure develops.
These are not guaranteed price forecasts. They are structural reference levels that can help us evaluate how the pattern evolves.
But there is still another path on the chart.
If the current advance fails to maintain its impulsive character and instead completes as a five-wave move followed by a larger sideways correction, the bearish / larger corrective structure becomes relevant again.
In that case, the market could develop a deeper correction while 58.52 remains the invalidation level for the larger bullish structure.
So the main question here is not:
“Will oil go up or down?”
It is:
“What structure is the market building next?”
Price does not always give us the answer immediately.
But structure reveals it step by step.
We just have to listen.
Patterns whisper. I listen.
— Mr. Nobody 🎧📊
WTI Oil Spot
Sep 2
Crude Oil | Three Nested Structures or a Larger Correction?
Brent Crude Oil
Aug 10
Crude Oil: Is a Larger Wave III Beginning?
CFDs on Crude Oil (Brent)
Aug 6
Is Wave 3 Beginning, or Is One More Correction Still Ahead?
XAUUSD: H&S minimum Target 3,900Gold turned neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 48.533, MACD = 10.880, ADX = 34.296) as the downtrend found support during the last 2 days on the 1D MA50 and today is rebounding ahead of the Fed Decision on the Rate. Though the long term pattern is a Channel Down, the recent Top formation is a Head and Shoulders whose minimum Target is its 2.0 Fibonacci extension (TP = 3,900). If hit it might also test the 1W MA100 (long term market support). $3,900 falls considerably above the 0.618 - 0.786 Fib range, which is the technical support structure of the Channel Down, meaning that the downside can be considerably stronger.
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4,250 Support & The Fed: A Critical Session Ahead“The 4,250 support level held firm. A reversal candlestick pattern is currently forming within this zone. If the price remains around 4,350 by the end of today’s session, a bullish continuation is likely to follow. That said, monitor the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting closely, as policy updates and interest rate decisions are likely to trigger significant market volatility.”
WTI Crude, What's next? Midterms ahead!Following my previous play, we see that price is now consolidating in the $101–$106 corridor.
Front-Month backwardation remains high
Remember, cash is king because cash markets cannot be bluffed.
The front-to-second month prompt spread sits at +$4.68/bbl backwardation. This means that commercial refiners and physical buyers are actively paying a ~$5 premium per barrel to secure immediate delivery.
Along with this, we can see through the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report that commercial inventories are at cushing levels, that means that we continue hovering near critical operational tank bottoms. Furthermore, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) remains depleted near ~293M barrels ( a multi-decade low ). Back in 2022, the US used the strategic reserve to absorve geopolitical shocks at the time. They discharged over 180M barrels of emergency supply and at the time it worked (debatable). The problem today is that structural dampener is gone. Thus, until the prompt spread compresses below 3$, any flat-price drop in spot crude reflects paper deleveraging rather than physical oversupply. (Why $3? According to the chart, its a historical level - if there is a real reason for that value, I'm afraid I'm not aware of it so, if you know something more, please comment below!)
Speculative headroom
Via the CFTC COT report we can see that:
- managed money sits at ~94k contracts net long, having slowly ground upward from the summer base near ~60k contracts.
- non-commercial length hovers around ~130k contracts.
Here, historical context matters. In sustained commodity bull cycles, managed money net length routinely seems to peak between 350k - 450k contracts. Thus, the implied is that there is a lot of sidelined capital waiting for clearer signals to position itself.
US Dilemma: Debt Servicing
With US 10-year yields lingering near 5.0% and 10-year real yields elevated at ~2.58% ( $TVC:US10Y-FRED:T10YIE ) , the US Treasury faces steep debt-refinancing costs. These yields will tighten global dollar liquidity and raise the bar for speculative carry trades across risk assets (specially looking at JPY).
FED operations in foreign exchange and money markets have recently shown clear strain. This adds pressure to the US debt markets, driving yields higher and keeping the USD buoyant.
Midterms
Due to midterms, we oughta look at oil from a game theory perspective as well.
The White House wants to deflate gas prices (the one you pay at the pump). Facing immense midterm pressure, high retail gasoline prices represent an existential political vulnerability. Trump ratings are falling heavily therefore, for him, it's pure survival at this time. The Dems have came forth more than once stating that if they win, they'll both remove trump from power and pursue legal actions against him - possibly landing him in jail. So, the rational move for the administration is to manufacture headline "paper relief" events ahead of the midterms. Such as floating diplomatic breakthroughs with Iran or jawboning the Fed into doing its bidding.
Tehran, on the other hand, recognizes Washington’s political sensitivity to $100+ oil as we've been at this point multiple times this year. Their dominant play is to sustain asymmetric tension around maritime both chokepoints ensuring war-risk tanker insurance remains elevated.
FED Independence
The broader macro risk is the perceived loss of Federal Reserve autonomy as the US heads into midterms.
With US 10-year yields pressing near 5.0%, annual interest on federal debt is rapidly becoming the single largest non-discretionary fiscal burden. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s expanded use of debt buybacks and bilateral FX maneuvers highlights growing official sensitivity to borrowing costs. Meanwhile, Chair Kevin Warsh faces the mandate of re-anchoring 2% inflation while front-month energy spikes. The executive branch is openly pushing for rate relief ahead of elections. The line for so long separated Treasury debt management from independent monetary policy is starting to erode.
If the Fed blinks and halts hikes or signals premature easing to cushion the political cycle while oil sits at current levels, the bond market will revolt.
I think that if this is the case, then inflation expectations and term premiums will expand aggressively.
The long end of the curve (10Y/30Y) will steepen sharply, tightening financial conditions regardless of what the Fed funds rate target displays.
And currency markets experience liquidity strain as foreign reserve managers (such as Japan) are forced to sell treasuries to defend their own currencies against the dollar, compounding US debt supply pressures.
It's not the end of the USD but it's clearly a realignment, a painful one.
So, after all that, what can we do? I see essentially three scenarios.
Important : Avoid the 100-106 range as it presents positive dealer gamma. (That's related to options, no need to bother much on why, but its part of the reason as to why large wicks show here and there.)
Idea 1
- Headline-driven diplomatic or regulatory rumors trigger selloff but prompt backwardation ( $NYMEX:CL1!-NYMEX:CL2! ) holds firm above 3$
- Execution Area: Re-entry long between 94 – 96 upon a 4H bullish reversal print
- Invalidation: Confirmed daily close below 88.50 (prior multi-month breakout)
- Take Profits: TP1: 112 || TP2: 120
Idea 2
- Real maritime disruptions stall talks (if they start), and cracks through 110 call wall (it'll trigger short-gamma dealer covering)
- Execution Area: Confirmed daily close above 108.50 with $NYMEX:CL1!-NYMEX:CL2! widening past 5$
- Invalidation: Daily close back below 103
- Take Profits: TP1: 112 || TP2: 120
Idea 3
- True de-escalation leads ahead of midterms forces price under 100, forcing dealers to flip ( aggressively sell futures into negative gamma)
- Execution Area: 4H close below 99.5 alongside $NYMEX:CL1!-NYMEX:CL2! compressing below 3$
- Invalidation: 4H reclaim above 102.5
- Take Profits: TP1: 95 (Put Wall) || TP2: 91.5
Note: you can see options walls in aggregators such as Barchart
I'll update the article in the upcoming days.
XAUUSD 4H | Gold at Critical Decision Zone | EMA200 + Supply Res1. Higher Timeframe Structure
Current Bias: Bearish Correction Inside Larger Bull Trend
From the chart:
- Price made a strong rally:
- HH
- BOS upward
- New highs around 4500+
Then:
- Strong rejection from supply area
- Created:
- Lower High (LH)
- Lower Low (LL)
- Multiple bearish BOS
Currently price is below:
EMA 200 (4364 area)
This is very important.
Until price reclaims and holds above EMA200, sellers still have control.
Resistance Zones
1) EMA 200 + Trendline Resistance
Area:
4355 - 4375
Currently price is testing:
- Descending trendline
- EMA200
- Previous breakdown area
This is the first decision point.
If rejected:
Possible continuation lower.
If broken and accepted:
Short-term bullish reversal.
2) Supply Zone
Area:
4435 - 4465
Your marked supply zone is very important.
This is where previous sellers entered.
For bulls:
A 4H candle close above this zone would invalidate the current bearish structure.
Support Zones
Demand Zone 1
Your blue zone:
4319 - 4253
This is the most important area.
Why?
Because:
- Previous liquidity sweep happened here
- Buyers defended this region
- It created the latest bounce
This is where I expect reaction.
Demand Zone 2
Major support:
4120
If 4250 fails:
The next magnet becomes:
4120 area.
Scenario 1: Bearish Continuation (Higher Probability Structure)
Condition:
Price rejects:
4355-4375
with:
- bearish candle
- weak volume
- No Demand
- RSI bearish divergence
- CISD bearish shift
Entry idea:
SELL:
4355-4375
Targets:
TP1:
4319
TP2:
4253
TP3:
4120
Invalidation:
Above:
4435
Scenario 2: Bullish Reversal
For buyers, I would not enter immediately.
Need confirmation:
Price breaks:
4375
Then:
Retest 4355-4375
with:
- No Supply
- bullish CISD
- volume confirmation
Targets:
TP1:
4435
TP2:
4480
TP3:
4529






















