Futures market
XAUUSD: Holding support, awaiting breakout towards 4,130OANDA:XAUUSD is trading around 4,041 after successfully defending a strong support zone multiple times. The price has reclaimed the short-term moving average and is currently testing the longer-term moving average and the bearish channel, indicating weakening selling pressure.
A bullish scenario is favored if the H2 candle closes decisively above 4,050, followed by a retest of the 4,025–4,040 zone without falling back below the trendline. In this case, the price could continue to recover towards 4,080 before testing the key resistance zone of 4,100–4,135.
On the macro front, gold is supported by physical buying demand in China and accumulation by central banks. Oil prices have also eased slightly due to hopes for US-Iran reconciliation; if this development alleviates concerns regarding inflation and bond yields, the environment for a gold recovery will become more favorable.
Long entry zones: 4,025–4,040 following a breakout, or 3,970–4,000 in the event of a deep correction
Confirmation: H2 close above 4,050 followed by a successful retest
Near-term target: 4,080
Key target: 4,100–4,135
Invalidation: Decisive H2 close below 3,950
XAU/USD: Bullish Structure Points to 4100–4120Key Levels
Resistance
4077–4083 (green zone)
Price is currently testing this supply area.
Sellers may defend this level initially.
Support
4020–4025 (green zone)
Previous resistance has become support.
This is the strongest buy zone if price retraces.
Major Demand
3960–3972
Strong institutional support.
Bullish structure remains valid while this zone holds.
Current Price Action
Price has rallied aggressively without a meaningful pullback.
That usually means one of two things:
Small rejection from resistance
Retracement into support before continuation
The blue path you drew is technically reasonable:
rejection from 4078
pullback toward 4022
buyers defend support
continuation higher
This is actually the higher-probability scenario than chasing the breakout.
Trade Idea 1 (Preferred)
Buy the retracement
Entry:
4022–4026
Stop Loss:
Below 4012
Conservative: below 4005
Targets:
TP1: 4078
TP2: 4100
TP3: 4120
Risk-to-reward is attractive because you're buying after the pullback instead of buying into resistance.
Trade Idea 2
If price closes strongly above 4083 with high momentum:
Entry:
Breakout above 4085
Stop:
Around 4072
Targets:
4100
4115
4120
Avoid entering if the breakout candle is already extended, as breakouts often retest before continuing.
Bearish Scenario
The bullish setup weakens if:
4020 fails decisively.
Price closes below 4015.
Selling volume increases.
If that occurs, the next downside levels are:
4000
3980
3965 demand
Overall Bias
Short-term: Bullish
Intraday: Bullish while above 4020
Swing target: 4100–4120
Best entry: Wait for a pullback into 4020–4025, rather than buying at current resistance.
Estimated probabilities (based on chart structure alone):
Bullish continuation after a pullback: 70–75%
Immediate breakout above 4083 without retracement: 25–30%
Day 4 Trading Journal | Trade 11 | Running Net P&L -50 pipThe higher-timeframe trend remains bullish. I'm not buying the first touch. I want confirmation before entering.
Entry Trigger: Price taps 4052 , then a 5-minute bullish candle closes above 4052 .
Buy Entry: 4052.392
Stop Loss: 4043.722
Target: 4084.344
Risk-to-Reward: ~ 1:3.7
No confirmation, no trade. I'll only enter after the retest is respected and a 5-minute candle closes back above 4052, confirming buyers have regained control. If price closes below 4043.722, the setup is invalid and I'll wait for the next opportunity.
Gold: Watching the Next ResistanceThe chart may look a little busy at first, but there are actually only three indicators here.
This is the Gold 3H chart.
Price has moved above the light blue Daily Magic Diagonal, so for me the main direction is still up. Since price has moved out of the daily range, this diagonal can now act as support.
Right now, price is trying to break above the middle blue diagonal, which represents the middle of the weekly range. If price breaks and holds above it, I’ll be watching the next resistance — the red Weekly Magic Diagonal around 4070.
If price also manages to hold above the grey diagonal, which represents the middle of the monthly range, and then breaks out of the weekly range above the red diagonal, the targets could be much higher. But we’ll see that later. First, price needs to get through these resistance levels.
On the 3H chart, I also have a divergence from my TRIX Chart Divergence indicator. The divergence is visible in the oscillator and is also marked directly on the price chart — I circled both areas.
We also had a positive buy volume signal from Volume Spike Levels. The candle is marked with the box on the chart.
So for now, I’m watching for a possible move higher. Let’s see how these signals play out.
All three indicators used here — Magic Diagonals, TRIX Chart Divergence and Volume Spike Levels — are available in my profile.
XAUUSD (M30) | Will Gold Sweep Demand Before the Next Expansion?Gold remains trapped beneath a well-respected descending trendline, keeping the broader intraday order flow tilted to the downside. Despite the recent recovery, price has yet to reclaim the previous swing high, suggesting buyers are still struggling to regain control.
From an ICT / Smart Money perspective, price is currently reacting around a bullish Order Block near 4,000-4,005, while a stronger First Demand rests around 3,985-3,990. A liquidity sweep into these zones would be consistent with institutional accumulation before any meaningful expansion.
Overhead, the Premium FVG around 4,030-4,035 aligns with the descending trendline and remains the primary supply area. Unless this confluence is decisively broken, rallies may continue to serve as liquidity collection rather than confirmed bullish continuation.
Trading Scenarios
Bullish: A sweep into 4,000-3,990, followed by a strong MSS/CHOCH, could open the path toward 4,030, then 4,060.
Bearish: Failure to defend the Order Block would expose the deeper demand below 3,990, extending the corrective decline.
With a relatively light U.S. economic calendar today, price action may remain technically driven. Watch for liquidity grabs around the marked institutional zones rather than chasing impulsive moves.
Key Levels
🟢 Demand: 4,000-4,005
🟢 Major Demand: 3,985-3,990
🔴 Premium FVG: 4,030-4,035
📉 Bias: Neutral-to-Bullish above demand, bearish below 3,985.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects an ICT/Smart Money framework, not financial advice.
GOLD Set To Fall! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
GOLD looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 4059.7 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
My Stop Loss - 4073.2
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 4038.1
About Used Indicators:
The average true range (ATR) plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the indicator uses ATR to calculate its value. The ATR indicator signals the degree of price volatility.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Gold Recovery Faces Its First H1 Test | XAUUSD 21/07Gold is rebounding after successfully defending the 3,990–4,000 H1 Demand Zone, encouraging buyers to anticipate a larger recovery.
The challenge?
Price is now approaching the 4,060–4,070 H1 Order Block, which aligns with a descending trendline and represents the first major resistance within the current bearish structure.
While buyers have regained short-term momentum, they have yet to reclaim the resistance needed to confirm a meaningful shift in market structure. Until that happens, the current advance should be viewed as a bullish retracement rather than a confirmed trend reversal.
For now, demand has held.
But the real test is only beginning.
Currently
• Price defended the 3,990–4,000 H1 Demand / SMALL OB
• Buyers reclaimed short-term momentum after sweeping nearby liquidity
• Price is approaching the 4,060–4,070 H1 Order Block
• Descending trendline continues to cap upside momentum
• Higher-timeframe bearish structure remains intact
• Buy-side liquidity sits above the recent swing highs
Trading Plan
Bias: Bullish Retracement Within a Bearish Structure
Main Zone
• 3,990–4,000 → H1 Demand / SMALL OB
Execution Idea
As long as price continues holding above the 3,990–4,000 demand zone, buyers may extend the recovery toward the 4,060–4,070 H1 Order Block.
This area is the first major test for the current rally. A decisive H1 close above the Order Block would strengthen the bullish case and expose the next objective around 4,130.
However, if price is rejected from the Order Block while respecting the descending trendline, the recovery could simply form another lower high before sellers attempt to resume the broader bearish trend.
Targets
→ TP1: 4,060–4,070 → H1 Order Block
→ TP2: 4,130 → Major H1 Bearish Order Block
Invalidation
A confirmed H1 candle close below 3,990 would invalidate the bullish retracement scenario and increase the probability of a continuation toward the 3,960 H1 Demand Zone.
Key Insight
Holding demand is only the first step. The real confirmation comes from reclaiming the 4,060–4,070 H1 Order Block. Until then, this remains a potential recovery within a broader bearish market.
Key Question
Will Gold reclaim the H1 Order Block, or is this rebound setting up another lower high?
Is understanding trends the core of trading?Gold Price Analysis: Gold prices have been under pressure at the 4200 level and have been fluctuating downwards. Recently, prices have repeatedly tested the 4000 mark, a key support level, with intense competition around this level. In the short term, prices are in a weak, volatile state without a clear directional direction, but the overall downtrend remains clear. Each rebound has been met with resistance at the downtrend line, and the highs of these rebounds are slowly declining. On the 4-hour chart, we can clearly see that gold is experiencing a volatile decline, with the lows already testing the key support area of 3960. If the current downward momentum continues, the possibility of new lows cannot be ruled out, given the continued weakness on the weekly chart.
Gold Technical Analysis: On the 4-hour chart, gold prices are in a downward channel, with the Bollinger Bands continuing to widen downwards and multiple moving averages providing resistance. However, the KDJ indicator has turned upwards from the oversold zone, suggesting a short-term technical rebound, but the upside potential is limited. The weekly chart has closed lower for two consecutive weeks, with short-term moving averages diverging downwards, indicating a clear downtrend. However, the KDJ indicator has entered oversold territory, suggesting that the downward momentum will gradually slow down. Overall, gold prices are currently in a reasonable consolidation phase after the previous surge, forming a descending triangle pattern around $4,000, with increasing divergence between bulls and bears. Yesterday, gold tested the downtrend line at $4040 but subsequently fell back. Those who have been following this trend know the importance of the $4040 level and advised considering short positions targeting $4010-$4000. The downward trend in gold continues, and for the bulls to see a rebound, they must break out of this downward trend, starting with the resistance level of the 4-hour downtrend channel at $4040. Judging from the current trend, the 4000 mark has shown some resilience and has been successfully held. If the closing price falls below the 4000 mark for two consecutive days, the downside risk will increase. In summary, the recommended trading strategy for gold is to primarily sell on rallies and secondarily buy on dips. The key resistance level to watch in the short term is 4040-4050, while the key support level is 3980-3960. Please stay tuned for further updates. Please follow the trading signals closely.
XAUUSD Algo Map: Equilibrium Consolidation & 4009 Core Battle💎 XAUUSD Algo Map: Equilibrium Consolidation & 4009 Core Battle
📋 Report ID: XAUUSD-DAILY-UPDATE-2026-07-20
Asset: Gold Spot (XAU/USD)
Timeframe: Daily (Macro) / 15m (Intraday)
📊 Data Anchor: July 20, 2026
🔭 Daily Outlook: July 21, 2026
🔭 Market Context & Price Action
The daily structure for Gold (XAUUSD) has printed a spinning top (Neutral Doji) directly at the $4000 fair value base. After opening at 3995.570, the market executed a volatile two-way expansion, pushing to an upper peak of 4040.815 before facing heavy supply, and subsequently dropping to a low of 3982.630. Closing the session at 4007.585, slightly above the open but tightly compressed just below the central computational pivots, indicates structural indecision and energy accumulation for the next major directional impulse.
🎯 Key Structural Price Zones
The following zones are derived from the precise density of calculated structural levels:
🔴 Overhead Resistance (Supply Cluster): 4036.678 - 4040.815
This overhead barricade represents a dense confluence of the physical session high (4040.815) aligned with highly compressed algorithmic resistance boundaries at 4039.587, 4038.057, and 4036.678. This zone serves as the primary fortress for the bears to prevent any upward structural expansion.
🔘 Central Core Zone (Decision Point): 4009.570 - 4011.723
The pivotal center of gravity of the daily market. This dense computational band encompasses the proprietary quantitative core (4009.570), key structural pivots (4010.343), and the 50% baseline (4011.723). With the closing price hovering immediately adjacent to this fault line, it acts as the primary fulcrum for price compression and intraday volatility.
🔵 Strategic Support (Demand Cluster): 3975.583 - 3982.630
A highly defensive structural demand block. This bottom boundary aligns the daily physical low (3982.630) with a heavy concentration of lower algorithmic supports at 3979.872, 3978.493, and the extreme lower boundary of 3975.583. This area successfully absorbed the selling pressure and serves as the ultimate floor preventing a deeper macro collapse.
⚖️ Phase Transition & Order Flow
Support and resistance boundaries act as the exact gateways for market phase transitions:
📈 Bullish Expansion: A decisive break and close above the 4040.815 physical ceiling will release the accumulated energy, transitioning the market into an active bullish phase.
📉 Structural Breakdown: A daily close below the extreme structural floor of 3975.583 is required to invalidate the neutral-bullish setup, handing control back to the sellers for a deep correction.
📝 Trade Scenarios (Range to Bullish Bias)
The market's immediate directional impulse relies on the breakout of the current consolidation limits:
🟢 Bullish Scenario: As long as the price successfully defends the 3982 structural demand floor, the market maintains a conditional bullish bias. The primary expectation is temporary fluctuation around the 4009 Central Core, followed by an aggressive attack on the 4036 - 4040 supply wall. A confirmed penetration above 4040 opens the path toward the higher targets of 4053 and 4068.
🔴 Bearish Scenario: If institutional sellers overwhelm the market, forcing a sustained breakdown and daily close below the 3975 extreme support boundary, the bullish framework is completely invalidated, exposing the asset to a severe downward liquidity run toward the 3952 lower block.
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Trade Safe and follow the structure.
By: ◈ Quantix Labs
Internal Structure for Gold is still BearishGold is giving a decent pullback but the internal structure remains bearish until it breaks past 4103 level which is the last valid internal lower high.
Having said that, this is the right opportunity for a quick sell trade. Entry at 4078, SL at 4103, and TP could be all the way down to 4024.
Gold Opens The Week With Bounce From Buying Zone, Eyes Key ResThe 1H XAUUSD chart shows a clear Smart Money Concepts sequence unfolding over the past three weeks. Price broke down from a Distribution Zone near 4,140–4,200, with the decline confirmed through a series of BOS (Break of Structure) and CHoCH (Change of Character) signals. Each leg lower left behind Fair Value Gaps (FVGs), marking areas of imbalance that the market later revisited during minor pullbacks.
This extended bearish sequence eventually brought price down into the zone where institutional buying interest is expected, roughly between 3,960 and 3,990. This area proved to be a significant demand zone, triggering a strong reaction that has price now trading at 4,005.335, modestly higher on the session.
The projected path suggests a stepped bullish continuation is underway, with price expected to work through the descending trend line that has capped rallies since early July. The primary objective, marked as Target 1, sits near 4,190 — bringing price back into the broader Key Resistance zone that dominated price action for most of the month.
This target area aligns with prior consolidation and swing highs, making it a logical zone for renewed selling interest if reached. A clean break above this resistance could open the door for further upside continuation beyond the current projection.
From a risk management perspective, the key invalidation level is a decisive break back below the institutional buying zone (under 3,960). Such a move would suggest sellers have regained control and could lead to a retest of the Distribution Zone lows.
For now, structure favors continued upside as long as demand holds, with traders watching for confirmation signals as price approaches the Key Resistance zone.
Do you think gold will break through Key Resistance toward Target 1, or will price stall and pull back first?
XAU / USD 4 Hour ChartHello traders. So as we are now a few trading days into the week. I have marked my new area to watch for potential scalp trade set ups in either direction. Lower time frame confirmation as well as other conditions must be met for me to take a trade. I will be looking at Wed and Thurs. for potential trade days. Let's see how things play out. Big G gets a shout out. Be well and trade the trend, happy Tuesday.
SILVERWe anticipate a rise in the price of silver if the 59.34 level is breached; should this occur, the price is likely to continue its ascent toward the 60.69 and 62.29 levels. Alternatively, if silver undergoes a corrective move toward the 57.54–56.80 range and shows a positive reaction at that level, we also expect an upward movement originating from that area.
XAUUSD - Downward Channel Continues, Target at 3,790XAUUSD is trading around 4,048 and remains entirely within its H4 downtrend channel. Previous rallies have consistently created lower highs, indicating that buyers lack the strength to break the dominant downtrend structure.
The current macroeconomic context also supports a bearish scenario. The USD is maintaining near its one-week high, while the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds is around 4.59%. High oil prices continue to fuel inflation concerns and expectations that the Fed may keep interest rates high for longer, thereby increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold.
The price is currently approaching the 4,035–4,080 resistance zone, while also being close to the upper trendline of the channel. If this area continues to be rejected, the rebound may only be a pullback before selling pressure returns.
A H4 candle closing below 3,990 would reinforce the possibility of price heading towards 3,900, and further to the target zone around 3,750–3,790.
Bull StructureStacked session ladder upward
Massive VWAP lift
Above prior day settlement
Above prior day POC
Above VAL 5/8 - now
Trade the Sequence
1. IF sweep THEN reclaim
2. IF reclaim THEN hinge
3. IF hinge THEN break
4. IF break THEN trade setup = valid
Entry(ies):
pullback to:
1. lip
2. lip shelf
3. apex shelf
keep an eye on the two overlapping microbalances:
1. 28873 - 28913
2. 28865 - 28913
Hinges here will be good entries.
microbalance: 28707 - 735 add to your chart
microbalance: 28795 - 825 add to your chart
microbalance: 29057 - 077 add to your chart
Always be mindful:
1. Day trading is high risk/high reward.
2. Even the best setups are high risk
3. It's called speculation for a reason
XAUUSD on bullish liquidity sweeps GOLD XAUUSD H4 OUTLOOK
Gold broke the Falling wedge pattern but upside liquidity is pending -- XAUUSD delivered the Excellent results on previous setup.
Currently Expecting Retest for next Bullish trade
●Expecting the buy (Bullish opportunities) from 4043- 4033 ZONE
Targets 4100 -4125 in extension( 4110 weekly demand zone)
XAUUSD Higher: Breakout and Retest Reinforce the Bullish TrendAfter maintaining a steady uptrend within the ascending channel, XAUUSD broke above a key resistance zone with strong momentum.
Instead of extending higher immediately, price pulled back to retest the breakout area, where former resistance is now turning into support.
If buyers continue to defend this zone, the retest could confirm a successful breakout and set the stage for an extension toward 4,075. This is a classic breakout-and-retest setup, showing that buyers remain in control.
XAUUSD: Technical rebound approaching a critical selling zoneXAUUSD maintains a clear bearish structure on the H4 timeframe, characterized by a continuous series of lower highs and lower lows forming beneath the downtrend line. Following a bounce from the support zone around 3,960, the price is undergoing a technical rebound, yet upward momentum remains limited. Notably, the 4,042 level represents a confluence of the downtrend line, the Ichimoku cloud, and horizontal resistance; this creates a formidable barrier that buyers must overcome to shift the trend.
Currently, there are no signals indicating the end of the downtrend. Conversely, the fact that the price is rebounding while remaining below key resistance levels suggests this is likely just a pullback within the primary bearish trend. Should a rejection candle or reversal signal appear at the 4,042 level, selling pressure could quickly return, driving the price down to retest the 3,934 support zone—aligning with the scenario depicted on the chart.
The fundamental backdrop also favors the sellers. Expectations that the Fed will maintain a hawkish monetary policy, combined with elevated US bond yields and a strong US dollar, continue to increase the opportunity cost of holding gold. While geopolitical tensions still support safe-haven demand, this factor is currently insufficient to offset the pressure stemming from interest rates and bond yields.
Strategy: Prioritize selling if the price shows a bearish reaction at the 4.042 level, targeting 3.934. The bearish scenario is invalidated if the price closes firmly above the resistance zone on the H4 timeframe and decisively breaks the downtrend line.
Daily Analysis and Reaction Locations [2026-07-22]The previous session confirmed the pullback is initiated. Looking at the current internal range volume, the POC is still located at the pullback target zone — that's my swing trade location for shorts.
For the next session, I'm interested in entering the pullback higher from today's confirmed value. Since the internal low demand has already been touched twice, it has no weight for me anymore, other than as a target for the swing short.
Grab the chart or zoom out on the preview to see all zones.
Trade Idea
Entering long on the first touch of the continuation value, targeting the pullback target. Risk is below the previous day low.
Shared for educational and analytical purposes only — not financial advice or a trade recommendation. Entries, stops, and targets are shown for study, not signals to copy.
Closely monitor gold's resistance around $4100Hello everyone:
Today's non-farm payroll data was positive for gold, and prices have rebounded again. Currently, gold has risen to around $4080, with resistance at $4100. If gold fails to break through this resistance level, it will continue to fluctuate between $4000 and $4100. If gold breaks through this range, the price trend will reverse, entering a new round of upward movement.
Today's gold market movement was quite clear, and we achieved a double profit on both long and short positions. First, during the European session, we accurately identified the resistance area for gold around $4080-$4090. When gold rebounded to this area, we executed a short position. Gold bottomed out at $4050. During the US session, we noticed gold's resilience and placed a long order again in the $4050-$60 area. Gold has now rebounded to around $4080.
From a technical perspective, gold is currently in a corrective phase within a downtrend, and it's premature to conclude that a trend reversal has occurred. It should still be defined as a range-bound market. Therefore, this presents opportunities for both shorting and going long on gold. If you've recently experienced trading difficulties or need guidance, feel free to contact me for further discussion. Going forward, pay close attention to the resistance level around 4100.






















