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Gold (XAUUSD): One More Possible Drop Before The Next HighMarket Overview
Gold is trading around $4,283, with the short-term structure pointing toward further downside.
The 1H chart suggests the current decline is developing as a corrective sequence, with a potential Wave (5) extending lower after the projected Wave (4) rebound.
Fundamental / Macro Catalyst
Gold is under pressure ahead of the September FOMC meeting.
Rising oil prices have increased inflation concerns, pushing Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar higher. Markets are pricing a Fed rate hike this week, creating a difficult near-term environment for non-yielding gold.
The 10-year Treasury yield has also moved above 5%, adding another headwind for bullion.
Technical Analysis
The current structure suggests gold may not have completed its correction.
A short-term Wave (4) rebound could develop toward the $4,350 area, followed by another decline in Wave (5).
The first downside reference is: $4,225.49
Below that, the larger support zone comes into focus around: $4,106.25
This area is particularly important because it sits within the highlighted horizontal support zone on the chart.
The broader bullish structure remains intact above $3,959.58, which is marked as the count invalidation.
On the upside, $4,697.08 is the major confirmation level for higher targets.
Key Levels
$4,697.08 — Confirmation of higher targets
$4,350 — Potential Wave (4) rebound area
$4,225.49 — First downside target
$4,106.25 — Major downside/support zone
$3,959.58 — Count invalidation
Bullish Scenario
Gold holds above the projected downside levels, completes the correction and eventually reclaims $4,697.08.
A break above that level would confirm the continuation toward higher targets.
Bearish Scenario
The current structure extends lower, first toward $4,225, followed by the $4,106 support zone.
A break below $3,959.58 would invalidate the current count.
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H2 Rebound Into POC Before Lower Liquidity
Fundamental Analysis
Gold is caught between two opposing forces. August U.S. CPI rose 0.4% MoM and 3.4% YoY, lifting expectations for a Fed rate hike next week to around 85%–87%. At the same time, renewed Middle East tensions continue to support safe-haven demand, keeping volatility elevated.
Technical Analysis
On H2, Gold remains inside a broader bearish structure after the recent CHoCH and BOS.
Price is now near 4,349, above the lower liquidity area. A corrective rebound could first develop toward the 4,420–4,450 POC zone, where previous structure and Volume Profile resistance overlap.
If sellers defend this area, the next bearish wave could target the 4,280–4,310 SSL.
Important Key Levels
4,601 — Major POI
4,510 — OB / Resistance
4,420–4,450 — POC / Sell Zone
4,280–4,310 — SSL / Main Liquidity
Trading Scenario
Sell priority remains on a rebound into 4,420–4,450 followed by bearish H2 confirmation.
Target: 4,280–4,310 SSL.
Invalidation: H2 acceptance above the POC zone and continued bullish structure.
Overall View
The H2 bias remains bearish, but price is already near lower levels. The cleaner setup is to wait for a corrective rebound into the POC before looking for the next move toward SSL.
Will Gold retest 4,440 before sweeping the liquidity below 4,300? Short 
HOW-TO: Read Breakout Retries and New Patterns on GoldA second breakout inside the same formation and the first breakout of a new formation are different events. This historical XAUUSD daily example shows how to distinguish them with Pattern Breakout & Retest .
1. Follow the descending channel
The first structure is a five-touch descending channel, marked Q70. Price closes below its lower boundary and PBR records ▼ BO. A later RT ✓ confirms the selected retest rule. This chart uses “Touch = retest” with a sloped retest/failure reference, so the check mark does not guarantee that the downward move will continue.
2. Separate failure from the next attempt
Price closes back inside the original channel, and the first breakout meets the failed-breakout threshold. PBR marks ✗ Failed BO. Before the formation expires, another close breaks below the lower boundary and produces ▼ BO #2.
Both attempts belong to the SAME descending channel. BO #2 is another downward attempt, not a new channel and not an automatic reversal signal. It starts fresh retest, target and failure tracking while retaining the earlier event labels.
3. Attribute each target to the correct attempt
The second downward attempt receives its own RT ✓ and subsequently reaches its projected level near 3,953. The red 🎯 near the later triangle's starting low belongs to that channel attempt. It is not a bearish signal generated by the triangle.
4. Recognize the later, separate triangle
PBR later confirms a five-touch symmetrical triangle, marked Q75. Its name label and ▲ BO appear on the confirmation bar in this example. This is a NEW formation with its own first breakout, rather than BO #3 of the earlier channel.
The green 🎯 belongs to the triangle's upward breakout, whose measured-move reference was near 4,409. No RT ✓ appears for that upward attempt in the displayed sequence: a projected target can be reached before a qualifying retest occurs.
5. Read the labels as events, not trade results
Q70 and Q75 describe geometric quality, not win probabilities. RT ✓ means the chosen retest conditions were met. A target marker means price reached a projected level after the breakout bar; it does not establish an entry, exit or realized return.
The practical workflow is to identify the formation first, follow its breakout attempt number, then read the retest, failure and target events attached to that attempt. Start that process again when a separate pattern is confirmed.
This is a historical explanation of indicator behavior, not a current trade signal or performance claim. Pattern lines describe earlier touches; the name label marks when the formation became known. Explanatory text was added manually and the statistics table is hidden for clarity. The chart uses FX:XAUUSD (FXCM); its volume represents feed tick activity rather than centralized exchange volume. Different feeds and settings may produce different results.
Indicator demonstrated: Pattern Breakout & Retest (public invite-only script).
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GOLD (XAUUSD) — 8H SUPPORT REVERSAL SETUP Gold is currently holding around 4,297 after a strong pullback. Price has entered a major 8H support zone around 4,272–4,285, while the rising trendline is also approaching this area.
📌 Trade Setup — LONG
Entry: 4,278.541
Stop Loss: 4,272.404
Take Profit: 4,492.405
R:R: ~1:35
🔎 Why I'm Watching This Setup
🔹 Major 8H support: Price is reacting from a previously important demand area.
🔹 Trendline confluence: The rising trendline is approaching the same support region, creating additional confluence.
🔹 Potential reversal: After the recent bearish move, price is beginning to stabilize around support.
🔹 Major upside level: 4,492 is a significant resistance area and represents the potential target if buyers regain control.
Confirmation
I want to see buyers continue defending the 4,272–4,285 zone.
Support holds → bullish reaction → break of nearby resistance → continuation toward 4,492.
If price breaks and holds below 4,272, the bullish setup is invalidated.
⚠️ The extremely tight stop shown on the chart means this setup is highly sensitive to normal Gold volatility. Position sizing is important; a wider structural stop with smaller position size may be more robust than risking too much on a very tight stop.
The 8H chart is showing a much clearer structure: Gold is sitting at a major decision zone. Will buyers step in? Long 
Gold Spot (XAU/USD) Technical Outlook
My current analysis highlights a potential upside move in Gold toward Box A, which represents a key liquidity zone. Price action is showing strength, and this area is likely to attract buy‑side liquidity before any significant reversal.
- Upside Bias:
The market structure suggests that Gold may continue its upward momentum, at least until Box A is reached. This aligns with the liquidity grab scenario, where price seeks to clear resting orders above recent highs.
- MACD Confirmation:
The MACD indicator is currently supporting bullish momentum, adding weight to the upside bias. This technical confirmation strengthens the case for potential buy setups in the near term.
- Buy Setups:
Any well‑structured buy entries in this zone could be favorable, provided risk management is applied. Traders should monitor intraday signals for confirmation before entering positions.
- Potential Reversal:
After the anticipated push to the upside, Gold may face resistance and begin a corrective move. The chart highlights a Daily Fair Value Gap (FVG) as the probable downside target. This zone could act as a magnet for price once liquidity is taken out at the highs.
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Summary
In short, Gold is showing bullish momentum toward Box A, supported by MACD. However, traders should remain cautious, as the upside move may eventually lead to a reversal into the Daily FVG zone. Red line is my liquidity line
As always, market wins! trade with care. be a part of the market
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
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US30 15M: Wait for Bullish Break of Structure (BOS) ConfirmationOn the 15-minute timeframe, US30 (Sep 2026) has dropped into a major lower demand/support zone near the $52,060 - $52,127 area after sweeping previous swing lows. Price is currently consolidating within this support block, setting up a potential bullish reversal scenario.
Technical Reference Levels
Projected BOS Confirmation Level: ~$52,180 (Awaiting Break of Structure Level)
Invalidation / Structural Level: ~$52,005.1 (Below the lower demand zone boundary)
Upside Target Level: ~$52,673.1 (Overhead resistance / liquidity target)
Technical Setup Logic
The technical plan calls for patience: awaiting a confirmed bullish Break of Structure (BOS) above the minor lower-high resistance (near $52,180) to validate buyer control. Upon a confirmed BOS and subsequent retest of the demand area, the setup targets higher liquidity near $52,673.1, with structural invalidation below $52,005.1.
Disclaimer & Purpose
This post is strictly for educational, analytical, and charting practice purposes only. It is not a financial idea, trading signal, or investment advice. Always manage your own risk and perform independent research. 
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