XAUUSD 45M: Key Support Zone and Potential Upside PathGold (XAUUSD) is currently trading around 4,335 on the 45-minute chart. Price has recently reacted from the lower support area and is showing signs of recovery from the 4,300โ4,320 region.
The chart highlights three important zones:
Support: around 4,300โ4,320
First resistance: around 4,415โ4,430
Upper resistance: around 4,465โ4,480
Price is attempting to move back above the nearby support/resistance area around 4,330โ4,340. If this recovery continues and the intermediate resistance zones are cleared, the projected path on the chart points toward the upper 4,470โ4,480 region.
The setup remains dependent on price action around the marked zones. A sustained move below the lower support area would weaken this structure and invalidate the illustrated path.
Key levels:
Support: 4,300โ4,320
Current area: 4,335
Resistance: 4,415โ4,430
Upper zone: 4,465โ4,480
Futures market
Natural Gas: Potential Double Top PatternNatural Gas: Potential Double Top Pattern
Natural gas retested the top of the structure near 3.07
It has been a while since this area was broken.
From our previous analysis, the price only reached the first target and then turned back. There is a good chance that we are in a potential larger Double Top pattern.
Remember that on August 31, 2026, Trump urged companies to use their fat profits to lower gasoline prices that have risen sharply due to the ongoing conflict with Iran.
From a geopolitical perspective, natural gas should rise. But, given what Trump is doing and how slowly natural gas and oil are rising, we should think carefully about the current situation where oil and natural gas remain manipulated as instruments.
Targets:
2.875
2.775
2.695
If the price moves above the resistance zone 3.07, then this analysis will become invalid.
You can find more details on the chart.
Thanks! ๐
โ ๏ธPS: Do your own analysis and use your own strategy to join the trade.
โค๏ธ If this analysis helps your trading day, please support it with a like or comment โค๏ธ
XAU/USD 16 September 2026 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Bias and analysis to remain the same as analysis dated 30 June 2026.
Price did not print bullish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation. Price instead printed a new low followed by a bullish CHoCH
Price is currently trading within and established internal range, however, I will continue to monitor price with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade up to either premium of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal low, currently priced at 3,942.100.
Note:
Gold remains volatile as tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran keep safeโhaven demand elevated.
Markets are reacting quickly to every headline, while uncertainty around the Fedโs easing path and shifting U.S. policy under President Trump, especially tariffs continues to fuel choppy price action.
For newer traders, the key is simple, stay flexible and manage risk carefully, as fast spikes and sudden reversals are a normal part of the current XAU/USD environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has printed according to analysis dated 02 September 2026 whereby I mentioned price to trade up to either premium of internal 50% EQ, or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal low, currently priced at 4,282.625. Please note, in error I mentioned weak internal high instead of weak internal low.
This is exactly how price printed. Price has subsequently printed a bullish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation.
Price is currently trading within an established internal range. I shall continue to monitor price with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade up to either premium of internal 50% EQ, or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal low, currently priced at 4,253.625.
Note:
Gold remains highly reactive on M15 as geopolitical risk continues to drive quick, headlineโled moves.
The tension between the US, Israel, and Iran is keeping safeโhaven demand elevated, with markets still sensitive to any sign of escalation.
At the same time, shifting US tariff policy under President Trump is adding extra uncertainty, fuelling sharp intraday swings and increasing the likelihood of sudden sentiment flips. Liquidity pockets and whipsaws remain common, making disciplined risk management essential.
Goldโs geopolitical premium is still firmly in place, and until tensions ease, shortโterm volatility is likely to stay frontโloaded.
M15 Chart:
Gold 45M โ Recovery Structure Toward 4450 AreaGold is showing a developing recovery structure after forming a base around the 4260โ4280 area. Price has moved back above the 4300โ4310 support zone, while the recent swing structure suggests improving upside momentum.
The main levels marked on the chart are:
Entry Area: around 4336
Support / Invalidation: 4308
First resistance: 4360
Major target zone: 4450โ4455
As long as price maintains the marked support area, the chart structure keeps the 4450โ4455 resistance zone in focus. A sustained move above 4360 could provide additional confirmation of the recovery stru
XAUUSD โ Key Resistance Zone and Potential Downside StructureXAUUSD is currently trading around 4,337 after reacting from the lower support area.
The chart shows a clear market structure with:
A major support zone around 4,250โ4,280
A key resistance zone around 4,400โ4,435
Previous LH (Lower High) formation near the upper resistance area
Price currently recovering from the lower support region
The main area to watch is 4,400โ4,435. If price reaches this zone and shows rejection, the chart structure could allow another move toward the lower support area around 4,264.
On the other hand, a sustained move above the resistance zone would weaken this downside structure and could indicate a change in the current setup.
Key levels:
๐น Support: 4,250โ4,280
๐น Current area: 4,337
๐น Resistance: 4,400โ4,435
๐น Lower reference: ~4,264
This idea is based on the visible market structure, support/resistance zones, and the reaction around these levels. Price action should be monitored as the setup develops.
XAU/USD ร kurutologic: Triangle Confluence & 3 ScenariosThis is kurutologic.
Today, I am sharing an updated structural analysis and scenario map for Gold (XAU/USD) on the 4H timeframe to gauge the near-term trading direction.
โ Market Overview
The market is currently forming a symmetrical triangle consolidation. Price is strongly supported by the "4H Support Zone" and the ascending trendline, while being capped by a descending trendline. Volatility is compressing, indicating an energy accumulation phase before the next major impulse.
โ Key Technical Confluence
1. POC & Trendline Intersection
Just above current price lies a critical resistance zone where the highest volume node, the "POC Line & Zone," intersects with the descending trendline.
2. 4H Order Blocks (Purple Boxes)
Above this intersection, unmitigated 4H Order Blocks are stacked in two levels, representing heavy institutional supply.
โ 3 Trade Scenarios & Action Plan
Since we are inside a consolidation pattern, we anticipate a test of the overhead resistance. I have mapped out 3 potential pathways (โ -โข):
โ Rejection at POC Confluence: Price tests the heavy resistance where the POC intersects with the descending trendline and fails, leading to a drop.
โก Liquidity Sweep at 4H OB: Even if price breaks the POC, it pushes into the first "4H Order Block" to trap retail breakout buyers. This liquidity sweep results in a sharp fake-out and drop. This is the primary hazard to watch out for.
โข OB Breakout & Support Inversion: A decisive body-candle breakout above the 4H OBs. If price can flip these supply zones into support (pullback) with clear price action, it confirms a high-probability long setup for continuation.
Maintain a neutral bias while inside the triangle. Wait for clear confirmationโeither a strong rejection at the upper confluence zones or a decisive breakoutโbefore executing.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always practice strict risk management.
kurutologic
XAUUSD โ PINNED 4,270โ4,354, WAITING FOR FOMC!Leo re-read your chart: the scenario lines up almost perfectly with the levels drawn โ both the 4,341โ4,351 turn zone and the two arrows at 4,486 / 4,202. Gold sits at 4,322.80, swept the low at 4,275.60 then reclaimed 4,340.79 (+0.66%). The range is holding.
๐ REALTIME MACRO
DXY hovers at 99.61โ99.70, near its range top โ USD's weak spot, the higher it goes the more room to be sold when news lands. US10Y touched 5.00% for a fifth straight session and still weighs on gold, yet gold holds 4,320 โ structural demand is intact.
Two markers tonight: 19:30 โ Retail Sales m/m (forecast 0.8%, prior -0.6%) and 01:00 โ Fed Funds Rate + Dot Plot, followed by Chair Warsh's press conference at 01:30. The rate bet is split: ~52% hold / ~46% hike 25bp. The key point: if the Fed hikes exactly 25bp without extra hawkishness โ "sell the rumor, buy the fact" โ USD gets sold back โ gold rallies. For gold to collapse to 4,202 you need a real surprise: a 50bp hike, a hawkish Dot Plot, or a hard-line Warsh.
๐ CHART EVIDENCE
Live price 4,334.42. Horizontal lines: 4,410 โ 4,340 (bottom of the yellow band) โ 4,320 โ ~4,290 โ 4,270 โ 4,240 (TURN H4) โ 4,200. The yellow TURN H1 band: 4,340โ4,355 matches your 4,341โ4,351 turn zone. A green arrow fires from 4,355 above 4,460 (target 4,486), a red arrow runs from 4,235 down to 4,200 (target 4,202). Seven-point zig-zag: 4,340 โ 4,320 โ 4,340 โ 4,280 โ 4,320 โ 4,270 โ 4,340 โ. The chart shows no EMA/RSI/volume โ pure S/R. You mapped 7 of 7 levels.
๐ง WHY PRICE MOVES THIS WAY
Leg 1 โ up to 4,341โ4,351: price sits right under the yellow band, and the 4,275โ4,278 sweep printed a Higher Low on M15. Pre-news flow typically pushes price to the range top to build liquidity โ taking the 4,340 high and hunting short stops.
Leg 2 โ pullback to 4,317 / 4,288 / 4,270: none of these are random โ 4,317โ4,320 is a repeatedly tested S/R; 4,288โ4,290 is the mid-range line where institutions rebalance; 4,270 is the sideways floor and the stop cluster for every long. Nobody wants full size before a release, DXY is pinned near its high and US10Y is at 5%, so price gets dragged back to equilibrium.
Leg 3 โ back to 4,341โ4,351: once both ends are swept, a fresh buying wave forms, confirming a two-sided compression โ enough stored energy to break out after the news.
After the news: a Retail Sales miss or a dovish Warsh โ break 4,354 โ 4,410 โ 4,460 โ 4,486. Strong Retail Sales plus a hawkish Fed โ break 4,270 โ 4,240 โ 4,202.
โ๏ธ PLAN & ADVICE
Pre-news:
SELL scalp at 4,341โ4,351 on an M1/M5 Pinbar or bearish CHoCH, SL 4,362, TPs 4,317 โ 4,288 โ 4,270.
BUY scalp at 4,288 or 4,270 on a bullish reaction candle, SL 4,258, TPs 4,317 โ 4,341 โ 4,351. 4,320 is chop โ do not trade it.
Post-news: don't click for the first 5โ15 minutes; spreads widen and price whipsaws both ways. Wait for price to reach 4,270โ4,240 or 4,354โ4,410, then read the M5 reaction. Enter only on a Pinbar/CHoCH at the turn zone.
Invalidation: M15 close above 4,365 โ cancel the bearish scenario. M15 close below 4,258 โ cancel the bullish scenario, confirming the path to 4,240โ4,202.
Advice: 50% size; non-professionals stay out and wait 30 minutes after Warsh's press conference. Don't chase shorts into 4,270โ4,240 pre-news โ the hike is largely priced in and this is the classic trap. Don't chase longs into 4,340โ4,350 while DXY is near its high. Move SL to breakeven at TP1, and don't hold through 01:00 unless in profit. Risk management > prediction โ survive tonight and you keep capital for next week.
Disclaimer: for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Confirm M1/M5 signals before entering.
โ Leo ๐ฅโ๏ธ
Gold (XAU/USD): news flow leaning bearish โ the net read
Gold (XAU/USD) did not get one story today, it got several, and they do not all point the same way. Weighed against each other โ new against old, and tracking which ones have already faded:
โโ Bond yields are spiking, oil is up โ but investors arenโt giving up on stocks
โโ Why markets have left the Fed little choice but to hike rates
โโ Treasury yields hitting 5% may not break markets now โ but the clock is ticking
58 stories were weighed in this window; the 3 carrying the most weight are listed.
Net read: โโโ leaning bearish โ top of our scale.
What this is: a measure of which way the *news* is leaning right now โ not a promise about price. A read being right and a read still being worth taking are two different things: once price has travelled a long way from where the read was published, it is stretched, and a lean that is stretched is a no-chase rather than an invitation.
Weight is not fixed either. A fresh headline lands, the balance tips, and the net read can flip inside an hour โ that shift is the part worth watching, not the first print.
I will post an update under this idea once the market has had time to speak, either way.
(Informational only โ not financial advice, not a signal.)
WTI Crude Oil (USOIL): Bearish Structure Remains IntactWTI Crude Oil continues to trade within a descending channel, printing a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows on the medium-term timeframe. Recent attempts to reclaim key resistance have been rejected, keeping sellers firmly in control of the broader structure.
From a fundamental standpoint, persistent concerns over global oversupply, rising inventory builds, and softer-than-expected demand continue to weigh on price. As long as WTI fails to reclaim on strong volume, the path of least resistance remains to the downside.
Key levels to watch:
Resistance:
Support targets: and if the downtrend extends
A confirmed break and hold above resistance would invalidate this bearish bias.
โ ๏ธ This is a personal technical view, not financial advice. Always manage your risk and use a stop loss.
If you tell me your actual resistance/support levels and timeframe, I can plug in real numbers so it's ready to post.
XAUUSD Bullish Recovery | Support Zone Test (2H)
Gold is attempting a recovery from the highlighted support zone after a prolonged decline within the descending structure. Price is holding near the lower support area, making the next reaction important for the short-term direction.
๐ฆ Support Objective: 4,280โ4,315
๐ข 1st Resistance Objective: 4,410โ4,420
๐ข 2nd Resistance Objective: 4,490
๐ Bias: Recovery attempt from support, with resistance confirmation required.
A sustained hold above the support zone could allow Gold to continue recovering toward 4,410, while a clean break and hold above that area may expose the 4,490 resistance region. If support fails, the recovery setup would weaken and price could remain under pressure.
XAU/USD GOLD 1H โ LIQUIDITY SWEEP DONE, IS THE NEXT BREAKOUT ?๐ Technical Analysis
Gold is showing a potential bullish reversal setup on the 1H chart after sweeping liquidity beneath the recent lows. Price has reclaimed the Key Level and is currently trading around 4,335.
๐ข Liquidity Sweep: Price dipped into the support area around 4,250, potentially clearing sell-side liquidity before bouncing.
๐ก Key Level: The 4,300โ4,315 area is important. Holding above this zone would support the bullish scenario.
๐ Support Zone: Around 4,250โ4,265. A sustained defense here keeps the reversal structure intact.
๐ Bullish Target: 4,378โ4,380, near the marked resistance/target area.
๐ด Invalidation: A decisive move below 4,232 would weaken this bullish setup.
๐ฏ Potential Scenario
Liquidity Sweep โ Reclaim Key Level โ Bullish continuation โ Target 4,378โ4,380
โ ๏ธ This is a technical scenario, not a guarantee. Watch how price reacts around the key level and support zone before entering.
๐ฅ Catchy TradingView Title
๐ GOLD LIQUIDITY SWEEP COMPLETE! ๐ฅ Bulls Eye 4,380 Next? ๐๐ฐ
XAU/USD (1D) โ Potential Head & Shoulders Retest
Market Structure & Technical Breakdown
Pattern: Developing Head & Shoulders (H&S) on the daily timeframe following rejection at the ~$4,694 peak (Head).
Support Confluence: Price is retesting key demand between $4,246โ$4,331, aligning with the 0.5โ0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone.
Price Action & Indicators: Printing a potential Morning Star reversal at support. RSI sits below 50 (bearish bias), OBV shows distribution, and price has crossed below major EMAs while testing a descending trendline.
Intermarket & Macro Drivers
DXY & US10Y: Strong Dollar Index (~99.6) and high 10-Year Yields (~4.97%) present firm macro headwinds for Gold.
WTI Oil: Elevated crude (~$103/bbl) fuels inflation concerns, which can act as a double-edged sword: supporting safe-haven demand while simultaneously raising Fed rate expectations.
VIX & Event Risk: Moderate volatility (~17.2) ahead of the FOMC decision. High potential for pre-news liquidity sweeps in both directions.
Execution Plan & Risk Management
Direct Shorting at Demand: High-risk into current support. Selling directly into a daily 0.5โ0.618 Fib zone before a lower high forms reduces edge.
Preferred Setup:
Pullback Entry: Wait for a relief rally into the 0.382 Fib (~$4,417) or Fair Value Gap (FVG) to complete the Right Shoulder. Enter short on a confirmed lower high reversal, placing the Stop Loss above the Right Shoulder peak (~$4,460+).
Breakdown Entry: Wait for a daily candle close below $4,246 (0.618 Fib) to trade continuation toward target support at $3,969.
Is NVIDIA's AI Dominance Facing Its Final Test? Macroeconomics and Geopolitics
NVIDIA dominates the global hardware ecosystem with unprecedented market capitalization. However, macroeconomic volatility and sovereign tech mandates test its market dominance. Governments aggressively fund domestic semiconductor ecosystems to reduce foreign silicon dependency. Competitors draw massive investments, including Samsung co-leading a 231 million dollar funding round for Dutch startup Euclyd. This competitive shift forces NVIDIA to strengthen its global geostrategic footprint. The company builds localized data centers to comply with strict sovereign security laws.
Business Models and Enterprise Trends
NVIDIA actively transforms its core business model beyond graphics hardware sales. Enterprise clients now prioritize complete ecosystem integration over standalone processor purchases. Salesforce partnered with NVIDIA to launch Koa, a specialized CRM reasoning model built on Nemotron 3 Super. Simultaneously, privacy fears reshape enterprise AI adoption across major tech corridors. NVIDIA and Palantir restricted third-party models due to corporate data retention concerns. NVIDIA leverages its private Nemotron framework to satisfy strict enterprise security demands.
Management, Leadership, and Culture
Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang maintains a flat organizational architecture. This leadership style drives hyper-speed decision-making across all operational units. Company culture emphasizes continuous disruption and extreme accountability. Engineers pivot rapidly from graphics rendering roots to advanced neural compute architectures. Leadership ruthlessly targets long-term technological transformations rather than short-term financial gains. This aggressive mindset insulates NVIDIA against legacy hardware stagnation.
High-Tech, Quantum Science, and Technology
NVIDIA expands beyond classical artificial intelligence into fault-tolerant quantum computing systems. The company launched CUDA-Q Logical at IEEE Quantum Week 2026 to simplify hybrid programming. This open-source platform accelerates quantum algorithm development across heterogeneous CPU, GPU, and QPU architectures. Using NVQLink networking technology, researchers link quantum processor units directly to GPU supercomputers. Fermilab reduced algorithm development cycles from five months to three weeks using CUDA-Q.
Cybersecurity Infrastructure and Patent Analysis
Cybersecurity remains a pivotal foundation for enterprise client architecture investments. Patent filings highlight exponential growth in hardware-level encryption and confidential cloud compute enclaves. Recent patents focus on token-efficient inference architectures and microsecond interconnect protocols. These proprietary technologies secure multi-tenant AI clusters against advanced state-sponsored data extraction. NVIDIA builds formidable intellectual property moats around its zero-trust hardware design.
Scientific Breakthroughs and Pharmaceutical Science
NVIDIA silicon directly accelerates modern computational biology and drug discovery research. The company's specialized compute stack powers bio-molecular simulation platforms globally. Researchers leverage high-throughput GPU clusters to map complex protein structures efficiently. This computational speed drastically reduces clinical trial costs for leading pharmaceutical firms. Hardware innovation transforms theoretical medical science into actionable life-saving treatments.
๐ซ๐๐จ๐จ๐ฆ๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ข๐ข๐ | ๐ฆ๐๐ฃ ๐ญ๐ฒ๐ซ๐๐จ๐จ๐ฆ๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ข๐ข๐ | ๐ฆ๐๐ฃ ๐ญ๐ฒ
๐๐ญ: Gold is bouncing from support, but the ๐บ๐ฎ๐ถ๐ป ๐ฑ๐ผ๐๐ป๐๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ป๐ฑ ๐น๐ถ๐ป๐ฒ continues to cap the recovery.
๐๐ญ: The short-term breakout remains valid while price holds above ๐ฐ,๐ฏ๐ฌ๐ฌ. Immediate resistance is located at ๐ฐ,๐ฏ๐ฑ๐ฌโ๐ฐ,๐ฏ๐ณ๐ฑ.
๐ง๐ข๐๐๐ฌโ๐ฆ ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐จ๐ฃ
๐ข ๐๐จ๐ฌ: Wait for bullish rejection from ๐ฐ,๐ฏ๐ฌ๐ฌโ๐ฐ,๐ฏ๐ญ๐ฌ. A deeper pullback could offer another buy opportunity at ๐ฐ,๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ฌโ๐ฐ,๐ฎ๐ด๐ฌ.
๐ง๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ด๐ฒ๐๐: ๐ฐ,๐ฏ๐ฑ๐ฌโ๐ฐ,๐ฏ๐ณ๐ฑ, then ๐ฐ,๐ฐ๐ฌ๐ฌ.
๐ป ๐ฆ๐๐๐: Look for shorts only after a confirmed bearish reaction at ๐ฐ,๐ฏ๐ฑ๐ฌโ๐ฐ,๐ฏ๐ณ๐ฑ.
๐ง๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ด๐ฒ๐๐: ๐ฐ,๐ฏ๐ฎ๐ฌโ๐ฐ,๐ฏ๐ฌ๐ฌ.
โ ๏ธ A confirmed ๐๐ญ ๐ฐ๐น๐ผ๐๐ฒ ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐น๐ผ๐ ๐ฐ,๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ฌ would invalidate the bullish setup.
#XAUUSD #Gold #GoldTrading #TechnicalAnalysis
FED DAY - REBOUND INTO RESISTANCE โ SELLERS READY?Gold is attempting a technical rebound from the lower boundary of the descending channel, but the broader H4 structure remains bearish. After falling toward the 4,250โ4,280 area, price has started to recover and is currently around 4,325. However, this rebound is still developing below the descending trendline, meaning buyers have not yet produced the structural confirmation needed for a reversal.
From a macro perspective, today is dominated by the FOMC decision. Markets have priced in more than a 90% probability of a 25bp rate hike, while the U.S. 10Y yield recently moved above 5% and the USD remains firm. Higher yields and expectations of tighter monetary policy continue to create headwinds for non-yielding Gold.
The bigger catalyst, however, will be Fed forward guidance rather than the rate decision itself. With the hike largely priced in, a hawkish Fed โ particularly signals that rates may remain higher for longer โ could strengthen USD/yields and pressure Gold back toward the lower channel. Conversely, a less-hawkish message could trigger a stronger short-covering rebound.
Technically, the immediate resistance is around 4,340โ4,360, where the rebound meets the descending trendline and the marked Demand zone. If Gold reaches this area and fails to break through, sellers could regain control and target 4,260โ4,280, followed by the major 4,230โ4,240 Supply zone.
Bearish Scenario โ Preferred Bias
If Gold rebounds into 4,340โ4,360 but remains below the descending trendline, the recovery can be treated as a corrective move. A rejection here could send price back toward 4,280, with a break potentially extending toward 4,230โ4,240.
Bullish Scenario
A confirmed H4 breakout above 4,340โ4,360 and the descending trendline would weaken the bearish structure. In that case, Gold could recover toward 4,390โ4,420, with 4,450 as the next resistance.
At this stage, Lucas does not favor chasing the current rebound. The better confirmation is either a rejection from the trendline to follow the bearish flow, or a clean H4 breakout above the trendline before considering that sellers are losing control.
KEY LEVELS:
๐ด 4,340โ4,360 โ Demand + descending trendline resistance
๐ด 4,390โ4,420 โ Next recovery resistance
๐ข 4,260โ4,280 โ Lower-channel target
๐ข 4,230โ4,240 โ Major Supply
BIAS: BEARISH โ WAIT FOR THE TRENDLINE REJECTION OR CONFIRMED BREAKOUT.
Natural Gas 4H: Breakout Retest in FocusNatural Gas has been trading in a rising channel on the 4H timeframe. Price initially broke below the rising channel, signalling a loss of short-term trend support and triggering a move lower toward the Point of Control (POC) at 2.767. However, instead of accelerating lower, buyers stepped back in aggressively at the value area and drove price sharply higher.
The market has now returned to test the underside of the former channel support, highlighted by the yellow circle. This is a classic technical setup where former support is being retested as potential resistance.
POC at 2.767 Proves Its Importance
The most significant level on the chart remains the 2.767 POC, marked by the black horizontal line.
The volume profile shows this as the area with the highest concentration of traded volume, making it the market's primary value zone. The strong bullish reaction from this level confirms that buyers continue to view this area as fair value.
The rebound from the POC is the reason the current breakdown remains unconfirmed from a broader structural perspective.
Break-and-Retest Zone Now the Key Battleground
The yellow-circled area highlights the current technical setup:
Previous channel support failed.
Price sold off toward the POC.
Buyers regained control from value.
Price rallied back into the broken trendline.
The market is now deciding whether the former channel support will become resistance or whether buyers can reclaim the structure and invalidate the initial breakdown.
Heavy Volume Acceptance Between 2.80 and 2.95
The volume profile shows substantial market participation between 2.80 and 2.95.
This suggests the market remains in a high-acceptance area where both buyers and sellers are active. A sustained move away from this volume shelf would likely require a stronger catalyst such as storage data, weather forecasts, or LNG-related developments.
Momentum
The 14-period RSI is holding near 57, recovering from the earlier selloff.
Momentum has improved following the rebound from the POC but remains below overbought territory, indicating the market still has room to expand in either direction.
XAUUSD upsideAfter the recent drop, price stopped falling and started moving sideways.
There is no clear direction yet, as buyers and sellers are still fighting for control.
Now look at the key resistance zone on the chart. Price has struggled to move above this area before, so it remains an important level to watch.
This time, however, the move toward resistance looks stronger and more direct.
Buyers are pushing price higher, and pressure is gradually building for a possible breakout.
XAUUSD | Todayโs News Setup
Based on my technical analysis and calculated key levels, Iโm watching four major zones for todayโs news:
๐ด SELL ZONES: 4,456 โ 4,574
๐ข BUY ZONES: 4,198 โ 4,220
These levels are derived from technical analysis and my own calculations, defining the key areas Iโm watching for todayโs Gold move.
Let the levels speak. ๐
GOLD XAUUSD: Don't Buy Until THIS Level Holds!GOLD (XAU/USD) ๐
The macro narrative heading into this week is heavily anchored to central bank policy expectations and fluctuating Treasury yields ๐ฆ. Interestingly, general online sentiment is leaning heavily bullish, with retail consensus eagerly chasing every upward tick. This extreme crowding suggests a classic setup where late retail buyers risk getting trapped before institutional money triggers a proper liquidity hunt to clean up the board.
From a structural perspective, we are observing a potential Bullish Market Structure on the M30/H4 timeframe ๐. However, retail community chatter is calling for an immediate breakout to new highs, which signals to me that the market is prime for a classic Wyckoffian shakeout. AMT logic confirms price is attempting to build value above the recent consolidation node. If we see a failure to hold value outside the composite profile, the stage is set for a sharp mean reversion back into the balance area.
Key Zone: Price is hovering near the upper edge of the Volume Profile Value Area around $4,305โ$4,311 ๐. A sustained holding pattern above the Value Area High (VAH) signals volume acceptance in a discovery phase, whereas a drop back inside confirms a return to internal auction balance.
We are currently positioning at the top of the short-term trading range. I am patiently watching for a run on liquidity to sweep the late buyers sitting right above the immediate local highs around $4,340 ๐งน, before determining if true institutional demand takes over.
My Trade Plan ๐ฏ
Bias: Neutral / Patience for Long Setup. I am waiting for confirmation rather than chasing impulse moves.
Entry Protocol: I will enter long only upon a clean bullish Break of Structure (BoS) and a successful retest of the Volume Profile Value Area boundary (holding above $4,305 - $4,311). If price falls back and closes inside the Value Area range, the long setup is invalidated and I will abandon the idea entirely.
GOLD NEW BULLISH MOVE TO OCCURGold is in a bearish trend but now is showing signs of reversal or a new bullish trend might occur.
As we can see Gold was in a bearish move but then broke above our Major High(zone that marks bearish trend ) giving us a sign of Change of Trend. If you notice you can also see Gold formed a Double Bottom before the bullish breakout, that is another sign of a possible change of direction. If price retests our CHoC then gives us a strong bullish candle within the zone then that would be the best confirmation for an entry.
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