Gold: 4100 in Sight This Week – Dip Buying Remains KeyOn the 30M chart, we observe persistent bearish divergence. The 1H MACD has registered a bearish crossover, albeit with the red histogram diminishing, while price remains capped by the MA5 and MA20. On the 2H timeframe, price is similarly constrained by the MA5 and MA10, though the MA60 is flattening and gradually turning upwards; the MACD continues to show a bullish bias with a golden cross, yet the green histogram is contracting. Price currently sits at the Bollinger middle band, suggesting that a directional decision is imminent. In a consolidative environment, we would expect price to trade within a relatively narrow range around the 4000–4020 zone.
Our near-term bias leans cautiously to the short side, with pivotal support at 4000. A break below would expose the 3990–3980 region. However, from a 2-3 day perspective, we continue to favour a buy-on-dips approach, given that the 4H bullish structure remains intact. The MA60 has declined to approximately 4060, representing the key near-to-medium-term resistance. Above that, the unfilled gap at 4100–4110 remains a significant upside objective – one we expect to be addressed this week, reinforcing our medium-term bullish view.
In essence, the market is currently awaiting a catalyst. Any positive headline could prompt an immediate upside spike – and 4100 is well within reach. 
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NQ | Wk 30 - 31 Q3 2026 | 4hr chartPrice action is currently looking for exits while some try to build the failing support.
The higher timeframe is showing signs to push price to $26,020
A 4hr Frontside level bravely stands in defense of those investors in short shorts. Strength favors the higher timeframe so the valiant faith of the $28,108 investors in longpants may catch the knife and get their fill this week.
If its going down, where is it going down from? There is a 4hr resistance level created 14 jul 8:00 sitting at $29,567.50 which looks like a level of interest if price gets above current support levels acting as resistance at $29,220-$29,122.
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Multiple Time-Frame Analysis; Color Code | Strength favors the higher timeframe.
Yearly timeframe = black
Monthly timeframe = pink
weekly = grey
daily = red
4hr = orange
1hr = yellow
15min = blue
5min = green if they are shown. (Level visibility on intervals is set to timeframe the level was found on and below to keep chart view organized.)
** Candle Science explained **
A Range = two or more consecutive color candles.
There are two types of ranges - accumulation and distribution.
DISTRIBUTION RANGES DEFINED:
When price is above a distribution range, these candles/levels act as support.
(BS) BACKSIDE Candle - First distribution candle in a distribution range. Expectation = strong reaction to price. long wicks reaching to or away from level.
(FS) FrontSide Candle - Last distribution candle in a distribution range. Expectation = reversal, create a trend in the opposite direction. Distribution candles are used as support.
ACCUMULATION RANGES DEFINED: When price is below an accumulation range, these candles/levels act as resistance.
INVERSE BACKSIDE (Inv.BS) - First Accumulation candle in an accumulation range. Expectation. = strong reaction to price. long wicks reaching to or away from level.
INVERSE FRONTSIDE (Inv.FS) - Last accumulation candle in an accumulation range. Expectation = reversal, create a trend in the opposite direction. Accumulation candles are used as resistance. Short 
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XAU/USD 15m — Fading the Traps, Not the Middle | Jul 20Gold's been boxed in between 4,000 and 4,030 for a while now. The bottom of the range is the point of control around 4,000 — where the most volume has traded. The top is 4,030, where a declining VWAP and prior structure line up and price keeps getting turned away.
The read on conditions: short-term volatility is firing but the higher timeframe is still compressed. That's the fakeout environment. When a weak little expansion pushes into a higher timeframe that hasn't committed, those pushes tend to over-extend and snap back. So I'm not trading breakouts here — I'm hunting failed ones at the edges.
What I'm watching:
Short: A push up into 4,030 that fails — price stalling at the top, no acceptance above, sellers stepping back in. That's the failed-breakout trap, faded back toward 4,000. This is my slight lean, because that upper edge has the VWAP and structure stacked, so a rejection there is the cleaner setup.
Long: A flush below 4,000 that sweeps the stops and then reclaims — trapped breakdown sellers getting squeezed back into the range. Faded back up toward 4,030.
Not trading 4,013. That's the middle of the range, and the middle is where fades go to die — no structure to lean on, both edges equally far.
Two cautions I'm carrying. Size stays small — the conditions here are workable but nothing special, so this isn't a lean-in setup. And the whole thing depends on the breaks failing: if price breaks an edge and actually holds through it, there's no trap and I stand aside rather than fight acceptance.
Fade the failure, respect the middle, keep it small.
Not financial advice. Trade your own plan. Short 
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NQ - Monthly Outlook There has been a significant development on the monthly chart for Nasdaq 100 names. What I am seeing is a similar structure to the last cycle that could still lead prices toward a capitulation event heading into Q4 of this year.
There are a few Fibonacci extension levels worth highlighting, along with what is currently developing on the monthly RSI.
The Fibonacci Levels
The first level I have outlined is the 3.618 Fibonacci extension from the last macro trend. This marked the top in late 2021 and could play a role with future price action.
The next Fibonacci extension levels come from the more recent trend spanning the 2021 high to the 2022 low. The 1.618 extension became the floor in Q1 2026 before the push to new all time highs. Then, last month the monthly candle closed right at the 2.618 extension before this selloff began. This is one of the first major signals of a potential reversal, aligning closely with the $30,000 psychological level.
The RSI Structure
Now the RSI is beginning to develop a structure very similar to what occurred before the last bear market.
Looking back at 2021, I have outlined a black trendline representing a series of higher lows in trend momentum. This upward momentum trajectory lasted from December 2018 to April 2022. Once momentum broke below that trendline on the monthly, the trend flipped bearish and the 2022 bear market capitulation began. That breakdown came right after a bearish divergence formed on the monthly RSI. Price made a higher high while the RSI simultaneously printed a lower high, signaling that although price was still pushing to new highs, the underlying strength behind that move was already fading. That divergence was the early warning sign that eventually gave way to the full trend breakdown and bear market that followed.
What Is Happening Now
Currently I am seeing something very similar develop. There has been an upward trajectory in trend momentum since the bear market lows of 2022 (marked by the black trendline). Now price has just created a double top/bearish divergence on the monthly RSI.
Therefore, what will be most important to watch is when the RSI reaches this momentum trendline. If momentum breaks below it, that could signal a much larger selloff into a bear market before the next leg begins, similar to what unfolded last cycle.
Of course this is all playing out on the monthly chart, so this structure is likely to develop over a longer timespan. But it is something worth flagging as price enters Q3 and Q4. 
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The Birth of a New Oil Bull Market!?I've been tracking a macro Elliott Wave count on oil since the COVID crash and I think we're approaching a critical point.
The historical collapse may have marked a secular reset in the market.
If that's the case, the rally into the March 2022 high completed Cycle Wave 1, with the decline into December 2025 forming a large WXY corrective Wave 2.
If this count is correct, the next major leg higher may be explosive.
The recent Hormuz escalation produced what I believe was Wave 1 of "Primary Wave 3" a sharp impulsive advance driven by geopolitical risk.
Following the ceasefire, the market retraced much of that geopolitical premium but importantly the decline has so far remained corrective rather than impulsive.
That leaves open the possibility that Wave 2 of Primary Wave 3 has already completed and we're now beginning the early stages of Wave 3.
However, the next move is what matters most.
If price produces another corrective three wave pullback in the coming days or weeks that holds above the recent lows around $67, it would strengthen the case that we're developing Wave (2) of 3, setting the stage for what Elliotticians refer to as the 3rd of the 3rd,
usually the strongest and most explosive portion of an impulse.
If that interpretation proves correct, a move well beyond the 2022 highs becomes a realistic long term possibility!
What would strengthen this bullish count?
The recent advance continues to subdivide impulsively.
Any near term pullback remains corrective rather than impulsive.
Price holds above the recent lows near $67.
A break above $89 would invalidate my immediate bearish alternative and increase confidence that Primary Wave 3 is underway.
What are the risks?
My preferred count assumes Wave 2 of Primary Wave 3 has already completed around the recent lows.
However, Elliott Wave corrections can often be more complex than expected and it's entirely possible that Wave 2 of 3 isn't finished yet.
In that case, the current rally would simply be another corrective leg before one final move lower to complete the correction.
The ultimate macro invalidation is a decisive break below the December 2025 low. That would invalidate this bullish Elliott Wave count and suggest the secular bull market thesis is incorrect.
I'm not calling for $200 oil tomorrow.
I'm saying that if the COVID lows truly marked the beginning of a new secular bull market, we may still be discussing the earliest stages of Cycle Wave 3.
Historically, third waves are where the broader market recognizes the trend, momentum accelerates and the largest gains of the cycle often occur.
For now, I'm less interested in the ultimate target, more so in how the next correction unfolds.
If the next pullback proves to be a shallow, corrective Wave (2) that holds above the recent lows, it could set the stage for an explosive Wave (3) of 3, the portion of an EW sequence that is often the strongest and most dynamic.
Time will tell whether this count is correct, the structure over the coming weeks/months should provide some important clues. Short 
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