Watching for a pullback to buy crude oilOur UK crude contract continues to look constructive on the four-hour timeframe. The price has recently broken above the descending triangle that capped gains in recent sessions and is now holding above $88.72 a barrel. While that level has only been tested a few times, it acted as both support and resistance during June, making it a level of note to build trade setups around.
Rather than chase the breakout, I'd prefer to see the price backtest $88.72 and attract fresh buying interest. A successful retest and bounce would provide a higher-conviction long entry, allowing for a relatively tight stop beneath the level for protection. Failure to hold above $88.72 would invalidate the near-term bullish setup, suggesting the breakout may have been a false move.
The first upside objective is today's high at $90.85 a barrel. A break above there would bring the June 11 swing high near $94.60 into view. Beyond that, attention turns to the $98.00 to $98.40 zone, which acted as both support and resistance in late May and early June.
Momentum also favours upside. RSI (14) is setting higher highs, albeit has strayed into overbought territory, while MACD continues to confirm the bullish signal, reinforcing the message from the price action.
The fundamental backdrop has also become more supportive after reports that multiple US servicemen had been killed in Jordan heightened the risk of a broader regional conflict and potential supply disruptions. While those developments have added another bullish catalyst for crude, the price action had already started to improve beforehand, suggesting the balance of risks had already begun to shift to the upside.
Taken together, the price action, momentum and the fundamental picture continues to favour upside.
Good luck!
DS 
Long
XAUUSD Trade Setup | Potential SELL Opportunity | 1H TimeframeOANDA:XAUUSD Gold (XAUUSD) is currently trading around the 4009 price region, where the market is approaching a key technical resistance area on the 1-hour timeframe. Recent price action indicates that bullish momentum is facing pressure, while sellers are attempting to regain control from higher levels.
Current Market Area: 4009
Technical Targets:
Target 1: 3992
Target 2: 3964
Technical Analysis
The 1-hour chart shows XAUUSD testing an important market zone where a potential bearish reaction may develop. Price action around this area will be critical in determining the next short-term direction. If sellers successfully defend the current level and bearish confirmation appears, Gold could experience a corrective move toward the downside targets.
A confirmed rejection from the current resistance zone, supported by bearish candlestick patterns and increasing selling pressure, would strengthen the possibility of further downside movement. A break below nearby support levels could provide additional confirmation for the bearish scenario.
Traders should remain patient and wait for proper confirmation before executing any position. Market structure, momentum, and price action should always be considered together with disciplined risk management. Proper position sizing and a clear trading plan remain essential for consistent results.
Market Bias: Bearish (Subject to Technical Confirmation)
Timeframe: 1 Hour (1H)
This analysis is based on technical price action, market structure, and key support and resistance levels. It is provided for educational and analytical purposes only.
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Bearish momentum to continue?Gold (XAU/USD) is rising toward the pivot and could reverse toward the 1st support, which has been identified as a pullback support.
Pivot: 4,074.50
1st Support: 3,928.79
1st Resistance: 4,201.76
Disclaimer:
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Gold Support Holds, Short Squeeze? Gold price has found support at a key technical level, with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement providing strong confluence for buyers to step in. This area has acted as an important reaction zone, suggesting the recent correction may be losing momentum. The ability of price to hold above this support increases the probability that the market is preparing for a move higher rather than extending the current decline.
One of the key factors supporting the bullish case is the presence of resting liquidity above current price. This untapped liquidity often acts as a magnet for price action, particularly after periods of aggressive selling where many short positions have accumulated. If buyers continue to defend the current support, an acceleration toward these liquidity pools could trigger a short squeeze, forcing bearish traders to cover positions and adding further momentum to the rally.
However, confirmation remains essential. While the technical structure is improving, this move needs to be supported by increasing bullish volume. Rising volume would indicate genuine market participation and strengthen the probability that the breakout is sustainable rather than simply a relief bounce following heavy selling pressure.
As long as Gold continues holding above the 0.618 Fibonacci support while volume expands, the outlook favours a rotation toward the overhead liquidity, with the potential for an impulsive rally driven by short covering and renewed buying interest. Long 
Short 
XAUUSD SMC Analysis Bullish ChoCH Signals Upward ExpansionTarget
The H1 chart for XAUUSD demonstrates a clear shift in institutional order flow following a multi-day bearish sequence. After repeated Break of Structure (BOS) and Change of Character (ChoCH) occurrences drove price lower to sweep sell-side liquidity near 3,965.297, aggressive buying interest re-entered the market. This sweep effectively cleared engineered liquidity beneath recent swing lows, laying the groundwork for a bullish structural realignment.
Currently trading at 4,022.290, price has executed a bullish ChoCH followed by a minor Break of Structure above the 4,020 level. This confirms lower-timeframe buyer control and invalidates the immediate bearish momentum. Price is presently consolidating just above the psychological 4,000 threshold, forming a high-probability demand region for continuation traders.
The immediate upside target lies within the unmitigated bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG) and supply cluster located between 4,040.000 and 4,060.000 (highlighted in grey and red). Should the current bullish expansion sustain its momentum, we expect price to press into this imbalance zone to mitigate resting supply. A decisive breach above 4,060.000 would open the path toward higher-timeframe premium liquidity pools, specifically targeting the major H1 FVG spanning from 4,080.000 up to 4,110.000.
For risk management, a corrective pullback into the newly established discount zone around 4,000 to 4,010 should offer favorable long execution opportunities. The bullish narrative remains valid as long as the recent swing low and demand base above 3,965.297 hold intact. Conversely, a sustained breakdown below this structural low would signal a resumption of the broader bearish macro trend. Long 
Short 
XAUUSD H1 SMC Analysis: Gold Reclaims Key Bullish OB After SweepThe H1 chart of XAUUSD reveals a significant development under Smart Money Concepts as price aggressively swept below the key Bullish Order Block resting between 3,990 and 4,010. This stop hunt successfully purged major sell-side liquidity down to the 3,980 demand region. Following this deep liquidity sweep, aggressive buying pressure entered the market, resulting in a sharp rejection candle and setting the stage for a potential bullish reversal.
Currently trading at 3,992.795, the price is forming a local accumulation base just below the psychological 4,000 level. The structural blueprint anticipates a bullish Change of Character on lower timeframes as buyers gain control. The immediate objective for this upward momentum is a newly established bearish Fair Value Gap resting between 4,010 and 4,025.
According to the projected path, we anticipate price to break impulsively through this immediate H1 FVG. Once this FVG is breached, it is expected to transition into a support zone. A corrective pullback to retest this newly formed demand area should offer a high-probability long entry. This mitigation process is expected to provide the necessary order flow to propel the market higher, targeting the premium liquidity pools and the major 0.5 Equilibrium level near 4,050.
Traders should monitor lower timeframes for a confirmed structural shift before executing long positions. A clean close back inside the Bullish OB zone will validate this stop-run scenario. Conversely, if the price fails to sustain this upward drive and breaks below the 3,980 swing low, the bullish thesis will be invalidated, opening the door for further downside extensions toward deeper discounted levels. Long 
XAUUSD 4021 trap — 4103 liquidity nextXAUUSD 4021 trap — 4103 liquidity next
That 4,000 struggle is messy, but the reaction is there.
Gold printed the big weekly drop, swept into the 3,959 area, then started crawling back. Not clean. Not pretty. But price is still holding above the low and now sitting inside the small Order Block around 4,021 - 4,043.
That’s the zone.
Macro is still heavy, yeah. USD has support from safe-haven demand, US-Iran tension is still dragging risk around, and the daily structure is not exactly bullish. So I’m not calling this a clean reversal.
This is more like a recovery leg into higher supply.
Main bias is bullish short-term while 3,959 holds.
If this OB holds and price reclaims 4,043, buyers can squeeze this thing toward 4,066 first. Above that, 4,103 is the real draw. That level has clean liquidity sitting above it.
And if gold keeps pushing, the premium zone around 4,120 - 4,138 is where I’d expect sellers to show up again. That’s not a buy-and-pray zone. That’s where the trap can flip.
Trading scenario:
Buy idea only if gold holds 4,021 - 4,043 and reclaims above 4,043 with clean candles.
Entry zone: 4,021 - 4,043 after confirmation
Stop loss: below 3,990
TP1: 4,066
TP2: 4,103
TP3: 4,120 - 4,138
No hold inside the OB, no buy. Simple.
If gold closes hard below 3,959, this recovery idea is dead. Then the weekly bearish pressure takes back control.
For now, I’m watching the OB hold first, then 4,103 liquidity.
You think gold taps 4,103 before sellers reload? Long 
XAUUSD: Bulls Took Control, 4,142 Is Next XAUUSD: Bulls Took Control, 4,142 Is Next
Market Context
Gold is pushing toward its highest area in more than two weeks, supported by improving risk sentiment around US-Iran diplomacy. If tensions cool and energy prices ease, the market may reduce expectations for a more hawkish Fed, which can support gold in the short term.
But this is not a clean “buy everything” market yet. Gold has already moved strongly from the lower demand area, so the next move needs confirmation. The main question now is whether buyers can hold the breakout structure or whether price will need a deeper reload before continuing higher.
Key point: buyers are controlling the short-term move, but 4,142 is the first liquidity target that can decide the next reaction.
Technical Structure
Gold is trading around 4,126 after breaking the previous downtrend structure and forming a clean BOS. This confirms that short-term momentum has shifted toward buyers.
The next upside target is the buy-side liquidity around 4,142. If price reaches this zone and holds strength, gold may continue toward 4,180 and 4,203.
The important support below is 4,096. This is the Buy Zone that buyers need to protect if price pulls back. Holding above 4,096 keeps the bullish structure valid.
Below that, the Bulls Reload Zone around 4,045 - 4,060 is the next area where buyers may step in again if price needs a deeper correction.
Key Levels
Current Price: 4,126
Buy-side Liquidity: 4,142
Buy Zone: 4,096
Bulls Reload Zone: 4,045 - 4,060
Smart Money Re-entry: 4,000 - 4,010
Upside Target Zone: 4,180 - 4,203
Bullish Continuation: Above 4,142
Bearish Risk: Below 4,096
Trading Plan
Buy Scenario
Entry: 4,096 after bullish confirmation
SL: Below 4,060
TP: 4,142 / 4,180 / 4,203
Condition: Price pulls back into the Buy Zone, holds support, and forms bullish confirmation. Buyers must keep the structure above 4,096 to maintain upside momentum.
Buy Breakout
Entry: Above 4,142 after breakout and retest
SL: Below 4,096
TP: 4,180 / 4,203 / 4,220
Condition: Price breaks above buy-side liquidity with strength, retests successfully, and continues forming higher lows. Avoid chasing the first breakout candle without confirmation.
Buy Reload
Entry: 4,045 - 4,060 after bullish reaction
SL: Below 4,000
TP: 4,096 / 4,142 / 4,180
Condition: Price corrects deeper into the reload zone but still shows strong buyer reaction. This setup is valid only if the pullback is controlled, not a full bearish breakdown.
Sell Scenario
Entry: 4,180 - 4,203 after bearish confirmation
SL: Above 4,220
TP: 4,142 / 4,096 / 4,060
Condition: Price reaches the upside target zone and shows strong rejection. This is a reaction sell only, not the main bias unless gold later breaks below 4,096.
Breakdown Sell
Entry: Below 4,096 after confirmed breakdown and retest
SL: Above 4,142
TP: 4,060 / 4,045 / 4,010
Condition: Price loses the Buy Zone, retest fails, and bullish momentum fades. This would confirm that buyers failed to defend the breakout structure.
Overall Bias
Gold has shifted into a short-term bullish structure after breaking the downtrend and forming BOS. Buyers are in control while price holds above 4,096.
The next key target is 4,142. A clean break above this level can open the path toward 4,180 - 4,203. If gold fails to hold 4,096, the recovery may weaken and price can return to the reload zone.
Best approach: follow the bullish structure, but do not chase highs. Wait for either a clean pullback into 4,096 or a confirmed breakout above 4,142.
Will buyers break 4,142 and continue toward 4,203, or will gold need one more reload before the next push?
Long 
Gold Meets H1 Resistance | XAUUSD 22/07XAUUSD has delivered a strong bullish expansion after reclaiming the H1 structure and printing a clear Break of Structure (BOS). Buyers are firmly in control for now, but the rally has reached the first major H1 Bearish Order Block around 4,130–4,138, where profit-taking and fresh selling interest could emerge.
Although momentum remains bullish, the higher-timeframe bearish bias has not been fully invalidated. Based on the current SMC structure, a short-term pullback into the H1 POI around 4,065–4,073 would be a healthy retracement before buyers attempt another expansion toward Buy-Side Liquidity.
For now, the trend favors buyers.
The next reaction at the H1 Bearish Order Block will determine whether this recovery has enough strength to continue.
Currently
• H1 bullish BOS confirms short-term strength
• Price is testing the 4,130–4,138 H1 Bearish Order Block
• A pullback toward the 4,065–4,073 POI remains possible
• The POI is the key area buyers need to defend
• Buy-Side Liquidity rests around 4,170
• Higher-timeframe Supply remains at 4,195–4,200
Trading Plan
Bias: Bullish While Above POI
Main Zone
• 4,065–4,073 → H1 POI
Execution Idea
Price has reached a key H1 Bearish Order Block after a strong impulsive rally. Instead of expecting an immediate breakout, I will monitor for a controlled retracement into the 4,065–4,073 POI. If buyers defend this area and bullish order flow remains intact, Gold could continue higher toward the Buy-Side Liquidity around 4,170 before challenging the higher-timeframe supply near 4,200.
A deeper rejection below the POI would weaken the current bullish structure and suggest that sellers are regaining control.
Targets
→ TP1: 4,170 → Buy-Side Liquidity
→ TP2: 4,195 → Higher-Timeframe Supply
→ TP3: 4,200 → Major Supply Zone
Invalidation
A confirmed H1 candle close below the 4,065–4,073 POI would invalidate the current bullish continuation scenario and expose the VAL around 4,030 as the next downside objective.
Key Insight
A strong breakout often needs a healthy retracement. The quality of the pullback—not the breakout itself—will determine whether buyers truly remain in control.
Key Question
Is this just a temporary rejection from resistance, or will buyers defend the POI and drive Gold toward the next Buy-Side Liquidity? Short 
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XAUUSD – H4 Breakout Pullback SetupXAUUSD is trading around 4,130 after breaking above the descending channel. The H4 structure is now bullish, but price is approaching resistance, so chasing the move offers poor risk-to-reward.
The preferred setup is a pullback into the breakout base before continuation higher.
Technical View
The 4,032–4,048 FVG is the main buy zone. It aligns with the broken channel resistance and should act as support if the breakout is valid.
A bullish reaction or higher low from this area could support continuation toward 4,140–4,152, followed by 4,188–4,202.
Acceptance above 4,202 would open the path toward the higher resistance zone at 4,290–4,305.
Key Zones
Current price: 4,130
Main buy zone: 4,032–4,048
Immediate resistance: 4,140–4,152
Major resistance: 4,188–4,202
Final target: 4,290–4,305
Invalidation: below 4,020
Trading Plan
Buy Priority: 4,032–4,048
Condition: wait for an H4 pullback into the FVG, followed by bullish rejection, a liquidity sweep reclaim or higher-low formation.
SL: below 4,020
TP1: 4,140–4,152
TP2: 4,188–4,202
TP3: 4,290–4,305
Important Note
Avoid chasing if gold breaks 4,152 directly. A retest would provide cleaner confirmation.
The 4,188–4,202 zone may trigger profit-taking before the next bullish leg.
Final View
Gold remains bullish above the broken channel. The cleanest setup is a pullback into 4,032–4,048, targeting 4,200 first and 4,290–4,305 if momentum holds.
Will gold retest the FVG before continuing higher? Long 
Long 
