Long
Small OB Retest Before Another Drop
Fundamental Analysis
Gold remains cautious ahead of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. Persistent U.S. inflation keeps rate expectations uncertain and may continue to create short-term pressure on Gold.
Technical Analysis
On H1, Gold remains in a bearish structure after the recent CHoCH, MSS and BOS.
Price is now near 4,600, with the 4,606–4,618 Small OB acting as the first resistance. A stronger rebound could reach the upper 4,635–4,644 OB.
Volume Profile also shows heavy activity around 4,600, making this area an important decision point.
Important Key Levels
4,665–4,675 — Major Resistance
4,635–4,644 — Upper Small OB
4,606–4,618 — Small OB / Resistance
4,560–4,570 — Liquidity
Trading Scenario
Sell priority remains on a rebound into 4,606–4,618 followed by bearish rejection.
Target: 4,560–4,570 liquidity.
Invalidation: H1 acceptance above 4,644.
Overall View
The H1 structure remains bearish. A short rebound may develop first, but the main focus stays on another wave lower toward liquidity.
Will Gold retest the Small OB before moving lower? Short 
H1 Bullish Recovery From Major Demand
XAUUSD is trading around 4,455 after a sharp bearish displacement from the 4,600 area. The decline broke through the first two demand layers and has now reached the major demand + OB + POI, making this the key H1 decision area for a potential recovery.
The macro backdrop turned strongly negative for gold after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. Warsh emphasized that inflation remains too high and that the Fed must be confident inflation is moving back toward 2%, pushing markets to raise expectations for another rate hike. The dollar strengthened and short-term Treasury yields rose, while gold fell more than 3%.
July core PCE also remains elevated at 3.3% YoY, keeping the inflation problem firmly in focus. However, Treasury efforts to manage long-term yields and lower oil prices could provide some counterbalance if rate expectations cool again.
Technical View
The H1 structure has shifted sharply bearish in the short term after price failed beneath the descending trendline and accelerated through the 4,580–4,600 demand zone.
The selloff also cleared the 4,500–4,520 intermediate demand, bringing price directly into the 4,445–4,470 major demand + OB + POI.
This is the main area where I would watch for a bullish recovery rather than chase the bearish displacement.
If buyers defend this zone and produce a bullish CHoCH/MSS, the first recovery objective sits around 4,500–4,520.
Acceptance above that level could extend the rebound toward 4,580–4,600, while a stronger structural recovery would reopen the 4,675–4,697 premium supply / buy-side liquidity.
Key Zones
Current price: 4,454.990
Major Demand + OB + POI: 4,445–4,470
Intermediate Demand: 4,500–4,520
Demand Zone: 4,580–4,600
Premium Supply / BSL: 4,675–4,697
Major Swing High / BSL: 4,697.533
Trading Plan
Buy Priority: 4,445–4,470
Condition: wait for a liquidity sweep into major demand followed by bullish rejection, CHoCH/MSS or clear reclaim confirmation.
TP1: 4,500–4,520
TP2: 4,580–4,600
TP3: 4,675–4,697
Important Note
The current H1 momentum is still bearish, so the demand zone alone is not enough confirmation.
Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole message has materially changed the short-term macro environment for gold. Avoid trying to catch the low without evidence that sellers are losing control.
Final View
Gold has completed a strong bearish repricing and is now testing one of the most important H1 demand areas on the chart.
The preferred scenario is not to chase the selloff, but to watch 4,445–4,470 for confirmed buyer response. If demand holds, a recovery toward 4,520 and eventually 4,580–4,600 becomes possible.
Will major demand absorb the Jackson Hole selloff and trigger the next H1 recovery? Long 
XAU/USD GOLD OUTLOOKGold is holding above its 9 and 14 EMAs, keeping the short-term bias positive.
Bullish above 4,625–4,640: a sustained move higher could target 4,680, followed by 4,727, 4,764, and 4,803.
Bearish below the demand zone: weakness may bring 4,585 into focus, followed by 4,548 and 4,509.
The key is confirmation—wait for a clean breakout or a strong rejection before entering. Protect capital, avoid chasing candles, and trade with a defined stop-loss.
Disclaimer
This analysis is shared strictly for educational and informational purposes. It is not financial or investment advice. Always perform your own research, use proper risk management, and trade according to your own strategy.
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❤️ Market Wisdom to Remember: ❤️
⭐ Trade what you see, not what you assume
⭐ Follow the trend — it's your only true friend
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Cheers & Trade Smart! 🚀 Long 
XAU/USD 45-Minute Professional Technical Analysis 1. Market Structure
The chart shows a **strong bullish impulse from the 4,350–4,400 region**, followed by a transition into consolidation around **4,600–4,680**.
The important structural development is the failure to establish sustained higher highs above the **4,680–4,690 supply zone**. Price subsequently produced lower highs and is now trading around the middle/lower portion of the recent range.
The blue structure suggests a **bearish continuation pattern**, with price respecting a descending resistance boundary.
**Current bias: Neutral-to-bearish below 4,640–4,680.**
---
### 2. Major Resistance Zones
**4,680–4,690 — Major Supply / Bearish Order Block**
This is the most important resistance on the chart. Price previously rejected this area after testing the upper extreme.
A sustained break and 45-minute close above **4,690** would invalidate much of the current bearish thesis and potentially expose:
* **4,720**
* **4,760**
**4,630–4,645 — Near-term Resistance**
This is the first area bears need to defend. It aligns with the upper boundary of the recent descending structure.
A rejection here would strengthen the short setup.
---
### 3. Key Support Levels
**4,590–4,575 — Immediate Support**
Price is currently hovering close to this area. The recent lows show buyers have repeatedly attempted to defend it.
A decisive break below this zone would be technically significant.
**4,560 — First Downside Objective**
This corresponds closely with the lower boundary of the current structure and the level highlighted by your chart.
**4,520–4,500 — Secondary Target**
If 4,560 fails with strong momentum, the next meaningful downside area is around **4,520**, followed by the broader **4,500** region.
---
### 4. Fibonacci / Structure
The chart marks approximately **0.2316**, suggesting a shallow retracement/reference level within the larger move.
The important point is that despite the preceding bullish advance, price has **failed to generate another sustained expansion toward the highs**.
That makes the current structure more vulnerable to a deeper retracement.
---
## 📉 Primary Bearish Scenario
The projected path on your chart is technically reasonable:
**4,600 → 4,630–4,640 rejection → 4,575 → 4,560 → 4,520**
The ideal bearish confirmation would be:
1. Price rallies into **4,620–4,640**.
2. Sellers produce a clear rejection.
3. Price breaks the recent intraday swing low.
4. A 45-minute candle closes below **4,575–4,560**.
5. Retest of the broken support fails.
6. Downside continuation toward **4,520**.
This would provide considerably stronger confirmation than selling immediately at 4,600.
---
## 📈 Bullish Invalidation / Alternative Scenario
The bearish setup becomes questionable if gold can reclaim **4,640** and hold above it.
A stronger bullish confirmation would be a **45-minute close above 4,680–4,690**.
That would signal that the supply zone has been absorbed and could open the way toward:
**4,720 → 4,760**
Therefore, **4,680–4,690 is the key invalidation zone for the bearish thesis.**
---
## 🎯 Professional Trade Framework
| Level | Significance |
| --------------- | ----------------------------------- |
| **4,680–4,690** | Major supply / bearish invalidation |
| **4,640** | Near-term resistance |
| **4,600** | Current pivot |
| **4,590–4,575** | Immediate support |
| **4,560** | First bearish target |
| **4,520** | Secondary bearish target |
| **4,480–4,500** | Extended downside zone |
### **Bias: BEARISH BELOW 4,640**
### **Strongly bearish below 4,560**
### **Bullish only on confirmed acceptance above 4,690**
**Bottom line:** The chart currently favors a **sell-the-rally / rejection strategy rather than chasing shorts at 4,600**. The highest-quality setup would be a retracement into **4,620–4,640**, followed by bearish confirmation. A confirmed breakdown of **4,560** would substantially increase the probability of a move toward **4,520**.
*This is technical analysis of the chart, not financial advice; price can invalidate the structure at any time.*
Long 
Long 
Short 
Long 
XAUUSD — 4,686 Looks Like the Trap XAUUSD — 4,686 Looks Like the Trap
Gold is finally showing that tired feeling after such a strong run into the three-month high area.
Price pushed higher inside a clean bullish structure through August, with several BOS moves showing buyers were in control. But after gold stretched into the upper channel and started holding below the 4,686.140 liquidity area, the rhythm changed. The market is no longer climbing smoothly. It is moving sideways under resistance, almost like price is catching its breath while sellers quietly test buyer strength.
For newer traders, this is the important part: after a big bullish expansion, a pullback does not mean the whole trend is finished. But when price fails to hold above 4,600 and keeps rejecting below the upper liquidity zone, the market often wants to rebalance lower before the next clean move.
My main view is bearish for a correction while gold stays below 4,686.140. The macro background also supports caution, with US inflation matching expectations, Fed rate-hike risk still alive, and traders waiting for the Fed Chair’s Jackson Hole speech. That kind of environment can make buyers hesitate near the highs.
If gold pushes back toward 4,640 - 4,686 and rejects, I would see that as a possible liquidity trap before price pulls toward the major pullback support around 4,450 - 4,480. That zone is important because it sits under the previous bullish leg and may be where buyers try to reload.
This bearish correction idea becomes weak only if gold reclaims 4,686.140 and holds above it. Until then, I see the upper zone as resistance, not clean continuation.
Key price zones to watch
Current reaction area: 4,600 - 4,610
Main supply / liquidity trap zone: 4,640 - 4,686.140
Bearish confirmation zone: clean hold below 4,600
First downside target: 4,563 - 4,570
Main pullback support: 4,450 - 4,480
Deep demand reaction zone: 4,000 - 4,020
Upper liquidity if buyers recover: 4,686.140
Invalidation: clean reclaim and hold above 4,686.140
Do you see this as gold preparing for a healthy pullback into 4,450 - 4,480, or do buyers still have one more sweep above 4,686 before the correction starts? Short 
XAUUSD — Sell the Fibonacci RetestFundamental Analysis
Gold remains supported by fiscal concerns and safe-haven demand, but July PCE inflation held at 3.7% year-on-year, keeping Fed tightening risk alive. Markets are now focused on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, which could drive the next move in the USD, Treasury yields, and gold.
Technical Analysis
On the H1 chart, XAUUSD is trading near 4,589 after breaking below the previous 4,600 support structure. Price is now below the Fibonacci 0.382 level and may recover into the 4,605–4,615 sell zone, where Fibonacci 0.5–0.618 resistance and previous structure converge. If this area rejects, sellers could push gold back toward 4,586 before extending into the 4,558–4,570 demand zone.
Important Key Levels
Current price: 4,588.62
Main sell zone: 4,605–4,615
Short-term support: 4,580–4,587
Short-term resistance: 4,605–4,615
Liquidity area: 4,558–4,570
Main target: 4,558–4,570
Invalidation: above 4,628
Trading Scenario
Main Sell Setup
Entry: 4,605–4,615
Stop Loss: 4,630
Take Profit 1: 4,586
Take Profit 2: 4,575
Take Profit 3: 4,558–4,570
Sell Condition
Wait for price to recover into the Fibonacci sell zone and show bearish confirmation. A long upper wick, bearish engulfing candle, failed reclaim, or H1 close back below 4,605 may confirm renewed seller pressure. If price breaks and holds above 4,628–4,630, the bearish setup is no longer valid.
Overall View
The short-term H1 structure favors a corrective bearish move while XAUUSD remains below the 4,605–4,615 value zone. The preferred plan is to avoid chasing the decline near current price and wait for a clean retracement into resistance before targeting 4,586 and the deeper demand around 4,558–4,570.
Do you expect gold to retest 4,605–4,615 before moving toward the demand zone? Short 
XAUUSD – Gold Below 4,600, Decision Zone Ahead XAUUSD – Gold Below 4,600, Decision Zone Ahead
Gold is entering a very important short-term decision area after losing momentum near the upper part of the rising channel.
Price is currently trading around 4,602 after a failed continuation above the recent resistance area. The market is still inside the broader bullish channel, but the short-term structure is no longer clean. Buyers need to defend the next demand zone, or gold may move into a deeper correction.
FUNDAMENTAL VIEW
Gold slipped below the 4,600 area during the early European session as traders focused on U.S. PCE inflation data and the Jackson Hole event.
Stronger inflation expectations can support the idea of a more hawkish Fed, which may lift the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields. This usually puts pressure on gold because gold does not offer yield.
At the same time, geopolitical headlines remain important. Iran’s conditions for reopening the Hormuz route may affect oil prices and inflation expectations, which can create sharp volatility for gold.
So the current market is not simple. Gold has bullish structure from the previous rally, but short-term pressure is building before the next big catalyst.
TECHNICAL VIEW – SMC + FIBONACCI
From an SMC perspective, gold has failed to hold the recent upside momentum after reaching the upper section of the channel.
The chart shows a short-term market structure shift around the 4,600 area, with price now moving sideways after a bearish reaction. This means buyers are no longer fully in control in the very short term.
The first important downside area is the expected buy zone around 4,528 – 4,544. This is the zone where buyers may try to defend the broader bullish channel. If price sweeps into this area and reacts strongly, gold may recover toward the expected selling zone above.
The expected selling zone is around 4,650 – 4,670. If gold retests this area and fails to break higher, sellers may step in again.
The larger structure remains bullish while price stays inside the rising channel, but if 4,528 fails, the correction may extend deeper.
KEY PRICE ZONES
Current price: 4,602
Immediate decision area: 4,600
Expected buy zone: 4,528 – 4,544
Expected selling zone: 4,650 – 4,670
Upper resistance: 4,700 area
Major lower liquidity: 4,300 – 4,320
Bullish reaction valid: Above 4,528
Short-term recovery confirmation: Above 4,625
Stronger bullish continuation: Above 4,670
Invalidation for short-term bullish reaction: Below 4,528
TRADING SCENARIOS
Buy Scenario – Support Reaction
Buy Zone: 4,528 – 4,544
Entry: Bullish rejection, liquidity sweep, lower-timeframe CHoCH, or strong reaction from the demand zone
SL: Below 4,528 or below the nearest swing low
TP1: 4,600
TP2: 4,650 – 4,670
Sell Scenario – Resistance Reaction
Sell Zone: 4,650 – 4,670
Entry: Bearish rejection, failed breakout, or lower-timeframe bearish CHoCH
SL: Above the rejection swing high
TP1: 4,600
TP2: 4,544
TP3: 4,528
Breakdown Scenario
Condition: Clean break and hold below 4,528
Target: Deeper correction toward the lower channel and liquidity zones
MY VIEW
Gold is not fully bearish yet, but short-term momentum has weakened.
The key area for me is 4,528 – 4,544. If buyers defend this zone, gold may recover and retest 4,650 – 4,670.
But if gold loses this buy area, the current correction may become deeper and the market may look for lower liquidity before buyers return.
I do not want to chase gold in the middle around 4,600. I prefer waiting for price to either sweep the buy zone or reject clearly from the selling zone.
Gold is still inside the bigger bullish channel — but the next reaction around 4,528 – 4,544 will decide if buyers are ready to continue.
Do you think gold will defend the buy zone and recover, or will sellers force a deeper correction first?
Short 
XAUUSD — Bullish Wave 5 Setup From Buy FVGXAUUSD — Bullish Wave 5 Setup From Buy FVG
Gold is starting to build a bullish recovery structure after defending the lower area near 4,570–4,580. From Kelly’s view, the current chart suggests that XAUUSD may be forming a new Elliott Wave upside sequence, with the latest pullback acting as wave (2) before price attempts to continue higher into wave (3), wave (4), and finally wave (5).
The key idea is simple: if gold continues to hold above the Buy FVG zone, the bullish structure remains valid and the next upside target may open toward 4,655 first, then 4,705–4,712.
⟡ Market Structure
Gold previously moved inside a descending correction channel, but the latest reaction from the lower zone shows that sellers are starting to lose pressure. Price is now trading around 4,603, right above the Buy FVG zone near 4,590–4,598.
If buyers continue to defend this area, gold may complete wave (2) and start pushing into wave (3). The first breakout area to watch is the Buy zone wave 5 / reaction zone around 4,622–4,628. A clean break above this zone would confirm stronger bullish momentum.
Above that, the next important target is the Fibonacci + FVG zone around 4,654–4,660, which also matches the projected wave (3) area. If price later pulls back and holds above structure, the final upside target remains the Target wave 5 zone near 4,705–4,712.
➤ Key Levels
◌ Current price area: 4,603
◌ Buy FVG support: 4,590–4,598
◌ Wave (2) invalidation area: below 4,570
◌ Buy zone wave 5 / breakout zone: 4,622–4,628
◌ Fibonacci + FVG target: 4,654–4,660
◌ Main wave 5 target: 4,705–4,712
⌁ Elliott Wave View
The chart is showing a possible bullish 5-wave recovery structure.
Wave (1) may have formed from the lower reaction zone toward 4,615–4,620.
Wave (2) appears to have corrected back into the lower FVG area near 4,570–4,580.
If this low holds, wave (3) can develop toward 4,654–4,660.
After that, wave (4) may create a small pullback toward 4,622–4,628.
The final wave (5) target remains near 4,705–4,712.
This is why Kelly is not focusing on chasing sells at the current level. The cleaner plan is to wait for confirmation that buyers are defending the FVG and that price can break back above the short-term correction structure.
▸ Trading Scenario
Preferred bullish scenario
Entry: Buy around 4,590–4,598 if price gives bullish confirmation from the Buy FVG zone
Stop Loss: Below 4,570
Take Profit 1: 4,622–4,628
Take Profit 2: 4,654–4,660
Take Profit 3: 4,705–4,712
Alternative entry: If gold breaks above 4,622–4,628 and retests this zone as support, buyers may look for continuation toward the Fibonacci + FVG zone.
◌ Invalidation
The bullish view becomes weaker if gold breaks below 4,570 and fails to reclaim the Buy FVG zone. In that case, the wave (2) structure may fail and price could continue the correction lower before any new bullish setup appears.
⌁ Kelly’s View
Kelly’s main view is bullish as long as gold holds above the lower FVG support. The market is still inside a recovery attempt, and the Elliott Wave structure suggests that a new upside sequence may be forming.
If buyers defend 4,590–4,598 and price breaks above 4,622–4,628, gold may continue toward 4,654–4,660, then potentially complete wave (5) near 4,705–4,712.
Do you think gold will confirm wave (3) from here, or will price retest the Buy FVG one more time first? Long 
XAUUSD: 4,600 Trap Before the Next Move XAUUSD: 4,600 Trap Before the Next Move
Market Context
Gold remains technically positive on the daily chart, holding above the 100-day SMA and the middle Bollinger structure. RSI is still around the bullish zone, showing that buyers have not fully lost control yet.
However, the short-term chart is telling a different story. Gold has pulled back from the recent high and is now struggling around 4,600. This level is no longer just a number — it is the line that decides whether buyers recover or sellers extend the correction.
Key point: the higher-timeframe bias is still constructive, but below 4,600, short-term sellers still have the advantage.
Technical Structure
Gold is trading around 4,602 after a sharp correction from the upper structure. The recent bullish trend is not fully broken, but momentum has clearly slowed after price failed to continue from the high area.
The nearest resistance is 4,600. Buyers need to reclaim and hold above this level to reduce selling pressure.
Above that, 4,660 - 4,675 is the Bearish Reload Zone. If gold rebounds into this area and rejects, sellers may defend strongly again.
The important downside level is 4,559. This is the Bearish Pressure Line. A break below this level could confirm stronger selling pressure and open the way toward 4,531.
The 4,531 zone is the Liquidity Sweep Zone, and the next major reaction area sits around 4,455 - 4,490. This is where buyers may attempt a stronger rebound if the correction expands.
Key Levels
Current Price: 4,602
Near Resistance: 4,600
Bearish Reload Zone: 4,660 - 4,675
Bearish Pressure Line: 4,559
Liquidity Sweep Zone: 4,531
Liquidity Reaction Pocket: 4,455 - 4,490
Institutional Demand Floor: 4,320 - 4,360
Bullish Recovery: Above 4,600
Bearish Continuation: Below 4,559
Trading Plan
Sell Scenario
Entry: 4,660 - 4,675 after bearish confirmation
SL: Above 4,700
TP: 4,600 / 4,559 / 4,531
Condition: Price rebounds into the Bearish Reload Zone and fails to continue higher. Sellers remain in control if gold rejects from this area.
Early Sell Scenario
Entry: Below 4,559 after breakdown and retest
SL: Above 4,600
TP: 4,531 / 4,490 / 4,455
Condition: Price breaks the Bearish Pressure Line and fails to reclaim it. This would confirm that the current correction is still active.
Buy Reaction
Entry: 4,531 after bullish confirmation
SL: Below 4,505
TP: 4,559 / 4,600 / 4,660
Condition: Price sweeps liquidity near 4,531 and shows a strong bullish reaction. This is only a reaction buy, not a full reversal unless gold reclaims 4,600.
Deep Buy Re-entry
Entry: 4,455 - 4,490 after bullish confirmation
SL: Below 4,320
TP: 4,531 / 4,600 / 4,660
Condition: If gold corrects deeper, this pocket becomes the stronger zone to watch for buyers. A clean rejection here would show that the larger bullish structure is still alive.
Buy Breakout
Entry: Above 4,600 after breakout and retest
SL: Below 4,559
TP: 4,640 / 4,660 / 4,675
Condition: Buyers must reclaim 4,600 with strength and hold the retest. Without this confirmation, buying remains risky because price is still under short-term sell pressure.
Overall Bias
Gold remains positive on the higher timeframe, but the short-term structure is weak below 4,600.
If buyers reclaim 4,600, gold can recover toward 4,660 - 4,675. But if price breaks below 4,559, the correction may extend toward 4,531 and possibly 4,455 - 4,490.
Best approach: wait for confirmation. Do not chase buys below 4,600, and do not sell directly into liquidity without a clean breakdown.
Will buyers reclaim 4,600, or will sellers drag gold into the 4,531 liquidity zone first?
Short 
BRIAN XAUUSD – GOLD BELOW 4,600, POC DECIDES THE NEXT MOVE BRIAN XAUUSD – GOLD BELOW 4,600, POC DECIDES THE NEXT MOVE
Gold is entering the final trading day of the week with pressure returning below the 4,600 area.
After several sessions of strong bullish expansion, price is now slowing near the upper value structure. This is not a full bearish reversal yet, but the chart is clearly showing hesitation. Buyers are no longer pushing cleanly, while sellers are starting to defend the higher resistance zones.
Fundamentally, the market is also waiting for confirmation. US PCE data continues to support the idea that the Fed may keep a tighter policy stance, while traders are focused on Jackson Hole for the next policy signal. At the same time, headlines from Iran about conditions to reopen the Strait of Hormuz keep geopolitical risk active.
So gold is now sitting between two forces:
Fed pressure and stronger USD risk on one side.
Geopolitical uncertainty and safe-haven demand on the other side.
Technical structure
On the H1 chart, gold is trading around 4,600 after losing momentum from the upper consolidation area.
The key resistance is the POC Value Resistance around 4,630 - 4,640. This is the zone where sellers may continue to defend if price rebounds. As long as gold stays below this area, the short-term structure remains heavy.
The current reaction zone is around 4,585 - 4,595. Price is trying to hold here, but the reaction is still weak. If buyers cannot defend this zone, the next downside area is the Liquidity Test Zone near 4,546.
Below that, the HVN Acceptance Zone around 4,486 is the larger value area where stronger buyers may appear again.
Important zones
Current price area: 4,595 - 4,605
Gold is sitting in a short-term decision zone.
POC Value Resistance: 4,630 - 4,640
Main resistance if price rebounds.
Sell zone: 4,670 - 4,672
Upper liquidity / rejection area.
Liquidity Test Zone: 4,546
First downside target if 4,585 fails.
HVN Acceptance Zone: 4,480 - 4,490
Major deeper value support.
VAL Lower Support: 4,420 - 4,430
Wider structural support if selling pressure expands.
Trading scenario
Sell reaction from POC Value Resistance 4,630 - 4,640
Entry:
Look for sell positions only if gold rebounds into 4,630 - 4,640 and shows clear rejection.
Stop Loss:
Above the rejection high or above the 4,672 sell zone.
Take Profit:
TP1: 4,585 - 4,595
TP2: 4,546
TP3: 4,486 if sellers keep control
This setup follows the current short-term weakness while respecting the larger bullish structure.
Alternative buy scenario
If gold drops into 4,546 and shows strong bullish rejection, a short-term buy reaction can appear.
But I would treat that only as a reaction trade unless price reclaims 4,630 - 4,640 with strong acceptance.
Final view
Gold is still inside a larger bullish recovery structure, but short-term momentum is weakening below 4,600.
For now, the chart is not clean for chasing buy. The better plan is to watch whether gold can reclaim 4,630 - 4,640 or fail there again.
If 4,630 - 4,640 rejects, gold can rotate lower towards 4,546 and 4,486.
If price breaks and accepts above 4,640, buyers may try to retest 4,672.
If 4,546 holds strongly, a reaction bounce can appear before the next decision.
For me, the key level is simple:
Below 4,640 = sellers still have room to pressure.
Above 4,640 = buyers regain short-term control.
Lose 4,546 = deeper value test likely.
Will gold reclaim the POC resistance before Jackson Hole, or will sellers force a deeper liquidity sweep first? Long 
XAUUSD 4612 bounce — 4563 still calling? XAUUSD 4612 bounce — 4563 still calling?
That bounce back above 4,600 looks shaky.
Gold already slipped under 4,600 earlier, then reacted from the lower range. Fine. Buyers showed up for a scalp bounce. But look where price is now.
Right back near 4,612, under the old sellside liquidity zone and still below the FVG sitting around 4,640 - 4,660.
That is not clean bullish control.
The move from 4,680 already showed buyer exhaustion. Price broke down, tapped liquidity, then tried to rebuild. But this rebuild is weak unless gold can reclaim 4,640 and hold above it. Until then, every bounce into that FVG can just be bait.
Macro is not helping the bulls much either. PCE data keeps Fed hike talk alive, Jackson Hole can shake the whole market, and the Hormuz story is still not fully settled. So yeah, gold can spike both ways. But the chart still says pressure is sitting above price.
Main bias is bearish pullback while gold stays below 4,640 - 4,660.
The key floor is 4,563. If sellers push price back below 4,590, that level becomes the magnet. A clean break under 4,563 can open the path toward 4,525 and maybe deeper.
Trading scenario:
Sell idea only if gold rejects 4,640 - 4,660 or breaks below 4,590 with clean pressure.
Entry zone: 4,640 - 4,660 after rejection
Alternative entry: below 4,590 after breakdown confirmation
Stop loss: above 4,680
TP1: 4,590
TP2: 4,563
TP3: 4,525
No rejection, no sell. No breakdown, no chase.
If gold closes strong above 4,680, this bearish pullback idea is cooked. Then buyers can try to squeeze back toward 4,700.
For now, I’m reading this as weak bounce into FVG, then 4,563 liquidity still waiting.
You think gold rejects 4,640, or fakes one more push before dropping? Short 
Bullish Pause Before FED's Chairman Speaks [28.08.2026: Fri]Probable Scenario Analysis:
⏺ Present Scenario:
The primary trend of Gold on the daily TF is bullish. However, there are signs of bullish exhaustion. In the 1-hour TF, the structure of Gold has been lower-lows and lower-highs (LLs and LHs) since the 25th of August. However, it has been difficult to hold short positions as the price action is too random. Thus, the view is bullish to indecision (with signs of bullish exhaustion).
🟢 Bullish Scenario
There is no sign of a bullish setup. A weak bullish setup might emerge if the price trades above 4625 and forms a higher-highs and lower-lows structure (HHs - LLs). Then 4650 would be the first target. Next, if the price decisively trades above 4650, then the probable bullish targets would be - 4675, 4700, and 4725.
🔴 Bearish Scenario
The price structure is lower-lows and lower-highs (LLs and LHs). Thus, a bearish setup is active. If the price decisively breaks down below 4575, then a weak bearish move can be expected till 4550. The price will receive good support at 4550. Next, if the price decisively breaks down below 4550, then a strong bearish move will be observed. The probable bearish targets below 4550 would be - 4525, 4500, and 4475.
🟡 No Trading Zone: (4625 - 4575).
⏺ Range of Consolidation (ROC): (4650 - 4550).
Here, 4600 is the median of the ROC. The median works like a trading session sentiment evaluator. The price trading above the median would offer bullish sentiment, while the price trading below the median would trigger bearish sentiment within the ROC.
● Events:
- 24 Aug (Mon): Treasury Sec Bessent Speaks (11:30 PM IST, 🟠 Medium Impact).
- 25 Aug (Tue): ADP Weekly Employment Change (05:45 PM, 🔵 Low Impact). HPI m/m (06:30 PM IST, 🔵 Low Impact). CB Consumer Confidence (07:30 PM, 🟠 Medium Impact).
- 26 Aug (Wed): Core PCE Price Index m/m, Prelim GDP q/q (06:00 PM IST, 🔴 High Impact). Crude Oil Inventories (08:00 PM IST, 🔵 Low Impact).
- 27 Aug (Thu): Unemployment Claims (06:00 PM IST, 🟠 Medium Impact). Natural Gas Storage (08:00 PM IST, 🔵 Low Impact).
- 28 Aug (Fri): Fed Chairman Warsh Speaks (07:30 PM IST, 🔴 High Impact).
● Intraday, Weekly, and Monthly Bias
Establish bias with respect to the opening price (of the particular session - Intraday, Weekly, and Monthly). If the price sustains above the opening price, then don't think of shorting. Look for bullish trades only. On the contrary, if the price sustains below the opening price, then don't think of going long. Look for bearish trades in that case.
● Disclaimer + End Note
- All the analyses would fail in the case of a major gap up, gap down, or price structure anomaly. Thus, practice PRAGMATISM in the live session.
- Trade only if there is a set-up. Remember, not trading is an extension of the trading activity.
- Mark your points. Trade your points. Price is GOD. Anything can happen in the markets. Thus, trade what you see, not what you believe.
- Always PRACTICE RISK MANAGEMENT. Always PROTECT YOUR CAPITAL. Be RESPONSIBLE.
- Be Strategic. Be Courageous. Be Patient. Be Wise.
- Every day is a new day. Thus, do not carry the baggage of past successes or failures. Leave the gardens of winning and losing. Establish yourself in equanimity. Always think from a new perspective.
- Let the joy of trading drive your effectiveness, not greed or fear. Believe in Possibilities.
Happy Trading! Flag Patterns: 4 Setups Traders Should KnowFlag patterns are continuation setups that usually appear after a strong directional move. The key is not the shape alone, but the sequence behind it:
Impulse → Consolidation → Breakout → Continuation
1. Bull Flag
A strong bullish impulse is followed by a controlled pullback inside a small downward or sideways channel. If buyers break the upper boundary while the broader trend remains bullish, continuation becomes more likely.
Strong push → controlled pullback → breakout higher
2. Bear Flag
After a sharp selloff, price recovers inside a small rising channel. The bounce can look bullish, but if the larger structure remains weak and price breaks the lower boundary, sellers may regain control.
Strong selloff → weak recovery → breakdown
3. Bull Pennant
Instead of forming a parallel channel, price compresses into a small triangle after a bullish impulse. Lower highs and higher lows show tightening conditions. A breakout higher can restart the original bullish move.
4. Bear Pennant
A strong bearish move is followed by tightening consolidation. If price breaks below the pennant while the broader bearish structure remains intact, continuation lower becomes the main scenario.
How AURICVERSE Reads Flags
1. A real impulse — weak momentum before the pattern usually means a weaker setup.
2. Controlled consolidation — not a messy, volatile range.
3. Trend alignment — continuation setups work better when they follow the larger structure.
4. A confirmed breakout — recognizing the pattern is not the same as having an entry.
My preferred sequence is:
Impulse → Pause → Breakout → Confirmation → Execution
Not:
Looks like a Flag → Enter immediately.
Flags can still fail. I become cautious when the pullback retraces too much of the original move, the breakout quickly returns inside the pattern, or the setup forms directly into major support or resistance.
AURICVERSE Takeaway
The Flag itself is not the edge.
The edge is recognizing when momentum pauses without losing structure.
Strong move. Controlled pause. Clean breakout. Clear invalidation.
Good traders do not trade every pattern they recognize. They wait for the ones that make sense in context. Education 
XAUUSD — 4,563 Is Calling Price Back XAUUSD — 4,563 Is Calling Price Back
Gold is trying to recover some strength, but the chart still feels like it is not ready to run freely yet.
Price already had a strong bullish leg before, with multiple BOS signals pushing gold higher. That tells us buyers were clearly active earlier in the move. But now the rhythm has changed a little. After reaching the upper area, gold started printing several ChoCH reactions, and each recovery attempt is being capped before price can fully reclaim the upper FVG zone around 4,645 - 4,660.
For newer traders, this is where the story becomes important. A market can still be bullish in the bigger picture, but if price keeps failing below a supply area, it often needs to pull back and refill lower liquidity before buyers can build another clean push. Right now, gold is sitting around 4,619, and the rejection from the upper FVG makes the chart look heavy in the short term.
My main view is bearish for a correction while gold stays below 4,640 - 4,660. The macro picture also fits this cautious read. Treasury-related support may help gold breathe, but inflation concerns, USD support, and the market waiting for Fed guidance can limit a clean upside continuation.
If sellers keep control below 4,640, the first area I expect gold to revisit is 4,563.828. That level is important because it sits near the next FVG reaction zone. If price sweeps into that area and reacts, buyers may try to defend again. But if 4,563 breaks cleanly, the deeper demand zone around 4,489 - 4,509 becomes the next major area to watch.
This bearish pullback idea becomes weak only if gold reclaims 4,660 and holds above it. That would tell me buyers have taken back the broken structure and may try to continue higher.
Key price zones to watch
Current reaction area: 4,619 - 4,630
Main supply / upper FVG zone: 4,645 - 4,660
Bearish confirmation zone: clean rejection below 4,640
First downside target: 4,563.828
Main downside reaction zone: 4,489 - 4,509
Lower support if demand fails: 4,450 - 4,470
Upper resistance if buyers recover: 4,660 - 4,680
Invalidation: clean reclaim and hold above 4,660
Do you see this as a normal pullback into 4,563 before buyers return, or is gold preparing for a deeper sweep into the 4,489 - 4,509 demand zone?
Short 
ANALYSIS — XAUUSD 1H BIAS🏦 ANALYSIS — XAUUSD
📉 Market Bias
Short-term: BEARISH
Price has shifted from the earlier bullish channel into a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. The current descending structure remains dominant unless price reclaims the nearby imbalance/resistance area.
Key Levels
Major Resistance / Supply: 4,655–4,665
FVG / Rejection Zone: 4,600–4,608
Immediate Support / Key Zone: 4,565–4,570
Lower Demand Zone: 4,470–4,488
Liquidity Zones
Buy-side liquidity: Above 4,600 and especially above 4,655–4,680.
Sell-side liquidity: Below 4,565.
A sweep below the current key support could attract price toward the lower demand zone.
BOS / CHOCH / FVG / Order Blocks
CHOCH: Visible shift from the previous bullish structure into bearish pressure.
BOS: Bearish breaks support the current downside continuation structure.
FVG: A visible imbalance sits around the 4,600 area, acting as potential resistance.
Order Block / Supply: The higher rejection zone around 4,655–4,665.
Demand: Current support near 4,565–4,570, with deeper demand around 4,470–4,488.
Primary Trade Setup — SELL THE RETRACEMENT
Entry: 4,600–4,608 on bearish rejection
Stop Loss: Above 4,625
TP1: 4,570
TP2: 4,540
TP3: 4,480–4,490
Risk:Reward: Approximately 1:2 to 1:4+, depending on entry and confirmation.
Trade Probability
Bearish continuation: 65%
Bullish reversal: 35%
Retail Trap
The main trap is a false breakout above the current resistance/FVG area around 4,600–4,608. If buyers chase a breakout without confirmation and price quickly rejects, trapped longs could fuel another move lower.
Conversely, a liquidity sweep below 4,565 followed by a strong reclaim could trap late sellers and create a temporary bullish reversal.
Beginner View
The market previously moved strongly upward, but momentum has weakened and structure is now pointing downward. Rather than chasing price at support, wait for either:
A retracement into resistance and bearish confirmation → SELL, or
A sweep of support followed by strong bullish recovery → wait for reversal confirmation.
Final Verdict: WAIT FOR SELL CONFIRMATION
Confidence Score: 7/10
One-sentence trading plan: Wait for price to retrace into the 4,600–4,608 resistance/FVG zone and sell only after bearish confirmation, targeting liquidity below 4,565.
If price stays below 4,608, my bias remains bearish. XAUUSD — MSS Retest, Bearish Delivery
Market Context
Gold is trading around $4,597 after extending lower inside the marked bearish delivery range. Price remains below the descending channel structure, while the recent MSS around $4,600 confirms that short-term order flow continues to favor sellers.
The macro backdrop is mixed. Gold is holding relatively firm ahead of Jackson Hole, but July PCE inflation remained elevated at 3.7% year-on-year and the US dollar is steady as markets reassess the possibility of further Fed tightening. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to speak at Jackson Hole on August 28, so rate expectations, Treasury yields and the dollar could drive increased volatility.
SMC View
The descending delivery range continues to produce lower highs and lower lows. The latest bearish MSS around $4,600 shows that buyers failed to sustain the recovery and sellers remain in control of the immediate structure.
Price is already approaching the First Reaction POI, so chasing the current decline offers weaker positioning. The cleaner setup is a retest of the broken MSS area followed by renewed bearish displacement.
Main Trading Scenario
Condition:
Gold retraces into the $4,600–$4,610 MSS area and forms a clear bearish rejection. A lower-timeframe bearish MSS or CHOCH is required before entry.
Entry: $4,600–$4,610 after bearish confirmation
SL: Above $4,625 and the rejection structure
TP1: $4,585–$4,595
TP2: $4,550–$4,558
Key Zones to Watch
Current price: $4,596.575
Main sell zone: $4,600–$4,610
Premium Supply: $4,672.589
First Reaction POI: $4,585–$4,595
Main target: $4,550–$4,558
Invalidation: Acceptance above $4,625
Confirmation: Bearish rejection with MSS or CHOCH
Prime Gold View
The sell bias remains valid while Gold stays inside the bearish delivery range and below the broken MSS structure. The preferred plan is to wait for a confirmed retest around $4,600–$4,610 rather than chase price near support.
If sellers maintain control, price could break through the First Reaction POI and continue toward the Deep Demand around $4,550. Acceptance back above the bearish structure would weaken the immediate setup.
No confirmation, no trade. Short 
