Long
XAUUSD: Corrective Wave C ongoingGold is moving into a corrective phase after the previous strong upside expansion. From Kelly’s view, the current structure suggests that the market is now developing wave C, even though wave B spent a long time consolidating near the upper range.
The key idea is simple: as long as price stays below the short-term trendline and the 4,330–4,340 sell zone, selling pressure still has the cleaner structure.
⟡ Market structure
Gold pushed strongly higher from the lower base and completed a clear upside sequence near the 4,370 area. After that, price started to slow down and entered a sideways-to-corrective phase.
The chart shows that wave B held in consolidation for quite some time around the upper range, but buyers failed to create a strong continuation above resistance. This makes the current move more likely to develop as wave C lower.
The sell zone around 4,330–4,340 is important because price is trading below it and also below the short-term trendline. Until gold can reclaim this area with strength, the recovery remains vulnerable.
➤ Key levels
◌ 4,330–4,340: sell zone and wave C resistance
◌ 4,313: near-term structural support
◌ 4,296: resistance breakdown reference
◌ 4,238: 0.618 Fibonacci buy scalping zone
◌ 4,197: 0.5 Fibonacci liquidity zone
◌ 4,106–4,110: deeper support if wave C expands
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the strong rally appears to have completed a short-term 5-wave bullish sequence. After that, the market began forming an A-B-C correction.
Wave A created the first pullback from the high.
Wave B developed as a long consolidation near resistance.
Wave C now appears to be starting while price stays below trendline pressure.
If this wave count is correct, gold may continue correcting towards the Fibonacci support zones. The first important reaction area is around 4,238. If selling pressure expands, 4,197 becomes the next liquidity zone to watch.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for price to stay below the trendline and reject from the 4,330–4,340 sell zone.
Sell zone: 4,330–4,340 if bearish confirmation appears
Stop loss: above the confirmed wave B high
Take profit 1: 4,296
Take profit 2: 4,238
Take profit 3: 4,197
Alternative scenario: if gold breaks above 4,340 and holds above the trendline with strong acceptance, the wave C sell setup weakens and the market may need a new bullish interpretation.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, this is a corrective-wave structure after a strong rally. The market has not fully turned bearish on the larger view, but as long as price stays below the trendline, the short-term path favours sell reactions.
Wave B took time to build, but that does not make the structure bullish by itself. What matters now is whether wave C continues to respect resistance.
Gold is correcting after a strong rise.
Below the trendline, sell setups still have the cleaner structure.
Share your view below. 
Short
MASON XAUUSD –Bullish Structure Still Holding Above Key Buy Zone
XAUUSD is trading around 4,330 and still holding a short-term bullish structure on H1.
Price remains above the rising trendline and Ichimoku cloud, showing that buyers are still defending the trend. The current movement is mainly sideways below the High Liquidity Zone, so a pullback may create a cleaner buy setup.
Technical View
Trendline: bullish structure still valid
Price Action: consolidation below resistance
Ichimoku: price above the cloud, buyers still have control
Key Zones
Current price: 4,330
Key Buy Zone: 4,295–4,310
High Liquidity Zone: 4,340–4,365
Resistance: 4,404 / 4,428
Main liquidity target: 4,475–4,490
Invalidation: below 4,285
Trading Plan
Buy Priority: 4,295–4,310
Condition: wait for bullish rejection, higher low, or strong recovery above 4,320.
SL: below 4,285
TP1: 4,340–4,365
TP2: 4,404
TP3: 4,428
Final target: 4,475–4,490
Alternative Scenario
If price breaks and holds above 4,365, wait for a retest before looking for continuation toward 4,404–4,428.
Sell View
Sell is not priority while price stays above the trendline. Only consider short-term sell if price breaks below 4,295 and loses the Ichimoku cloud.
Final View
Overall, gold remains bullish as long as 4,295–4,310 holds. A clean reaction from this zone may support the next move toward 4,365, then 4,404–4,428.
Will gold retest the Key Buy Zone first, or break above liquidity directly?
Long 
HTF Support Matrix Meets Kevin Warsh’s Historic Fed Debut📊 1. Technical Liquidity Matrix
The Current Standstill: XAUUSD perfectly reflects extreme global watchfulness on the tape. As seen on our 4H chart, price is heavily compressed right below a local 4 HR POI (4363), marked clearly by the build-up of equal highs (XXX).
The Order Flow Trap: We are currently sandwiched between a massive premium daily Fair Value Gap (FVG) above 4400 and a fresh, unmitigated discount 4 HR POI around the 4235 zone.
The Objective: The market is structurally undecided on its next definitive expansion, creating an intentional liquidity building phase right before the New York session headlines hit the tape.
🌐 2. The Macro Overlay: FOMC & The Dot Plot Conundrum
The Rate Reality: While a baseline interest rate hold is 97% priced into the market for tonight's session, the actual announcement will be a non-event. The true institutional volume injection will stem from forward-looking guidance.
The Dot Plot Shock: All institutional eyes are fixed on the updated Summary of Economic Projections (the Dot Plot) dropping at 11:30 PM IST. With headline inflation printing near a 3-year high of 4.2% due to recent geopolitical energy shocks, the core question is whether the Fed completely erases their previously projected 2026 rate cuts.
The Debut Variable: Adding to the complexity, tonight marks the highly anticipated debut press conference of the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, at 12:00 AM IST (Midnight). The market will be aggressively analyzing his tone to see if his newly established leadership defaults to an aggressive hawk or a data-dependent diplomat.
⚡ 3. Forward-Looking Operational Scenarios
Scenario A: The Dovish Relief (Blue Arrow Path 1)
Condition: If the Fed protects its cutting cycle and price breaks and closes a 4H candle cleanly above the 4363 (XXX) resistance barrier.
Target: This will trigger a violent buy-side liquidity run straight through the daily FVG, expanding directly into the upper premium Daily/4HR POI targeting 4430+.
Scenario B: The Hawkish Manipulation & Retracement (Blue Arrow Path 2)
Condition: If the Fed delivers a hawkish shock (0 cuts + rate hike threats), expect an initial algorithmic dump to flush out early buyers.
Target: We will completely avoid chasing any immediate short expansion. Instead, we are hunting a deep discount mitigation into our lower 4 HR POI at 4235 - 4233. If this zone aligns with the Friday Geneva signing news, it will offer a high-probability institutional accumulation zone.
⚠️ Risk Warning
Disclaimer: This analysis is purely educational and does not constitute financial advice. FOMC releases routinely engineer two-way liquidity sweeps. Protect your capital, wait for the 4H candle closures, and manage risk defensively. THIS WEEK WILL DECIDE GOLD’S DIRECTION — BUY OR SELL BEFORE FOMCWhen the market starts consolidating, it’s usually a sign that something big is about to happen. And no doubt, this week is going to be very important. Within the next 17 hours, we have the FOMC press conference, which will be the first conference led by Kevin Warsh. Along with that, all eyes are on the Iran peace deal expected to be signed on 19th June (Friday).
Because of these major events, the market is intentionally moving sideways and keeping traders stuck in a range. This is creating confusion among retail traders, while big players are quietly generating liquidity. So let’s break down how we can plan gold trades using market psychology and key institutional levels.
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Looking at the current price action in gold, I don’t see strong confirmation for further buying right now. As discussed earlier, the market opened with a strong gap-up this week, which didn’t give most traders a proper buying opportunity. Because of this, many traders entered buys at higher levels and are now trapped — especially after the breakout and liquidity sweep around $4366.
Also, notice how the market respected $4300 as support twice — once on Monday and again on Tuesday. On Tuesday, price even opened slightly above $4300 and moved upward without sweeping it. This led many retail buyers to place stop losses below $4300 and hold their buy positions with hope.
Because of this positioning, I expect gold to slowly move downward today. Both price action and market psychology support this view.
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Currently, the range between $4300 – $4366 is very important. Buyers are active at the bottom, while sellers are strong at the top. Until we get a proper breakout from either side, we won’t see a clear directional move.
For today:
* If the market sustains below $4335, there is a strong chance we will see a breakdown of $4300.
* Based on current price behavior, I don’t expect a strong buying move today. Instead, gold may move in a slow, low-volume zigzag pattern toward the downside.
Once $4300 breaks with a strong 30-minute candle close, we could see a sharp decline. After that:
* Monday’s low may get swept
* First target: $4270
* Further downside is possible as the gap below still remains unfilled
This move could happen either before or after the FOMC event.
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If this downside move plays out, many traders who are currently holding buy positions will lose confidence and start believing the trend is still bearish. With the Iran peace deal news coming on 19th June, more traders may start building short positions expecting further downside, especially since the previous weeks have been bearish and no strong upside breakout has been sustained.
But this is where things could get interesting.
The level around $4134 is very important — it’s a strong institutional level. From there, gold has the potential to reverse and create a powerful upside move. This could become a major trap for sellers going into the weekend, and that’s something I’ll be watching closely.
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For now, my bias remains bearish:
* Below $4366, I am not looking for buys
* Below $4335, my daily bias stays bearish
* I will prefer selling and targeting $4300 and below
I will only consider upside trades if we get a strong 15-minute candle close above $4335.
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So this is my short and simple plan for today. This week is extremely important due to major global events, so trade carefully and focus on precision entries. The reward potential is high if executed correctly.
What’s your view on gold right now? Let me know in the comments.
Gold Is Pinned at 4,355 || FOMC today .Gold Is Pinned at 4,355 Into the New Fed Chair's Debut: Why the Dots Decide Tonight, Not the Rate
The market has already made up its mind about one thing: the Fed is not moving the rate tonight. Pricing sits at 99.6 percent for no change, holding 3.75 percent. So if you are waiting for the rate decision to move gold, you are watching the wrong line. The number is already in the price. The event is everything that comes with it: the projections, and a brand new Fed chair taking questions for the first time. That is what gold is coiling to find out.
Here is where we stand going in.
THE STANDOFF
Spot is 4,332, and it has spent the session doing the same thing it has done for two days: pressing into the 4,345 to 4,355 band and getting turned away. That zone is the wall. It is less than half a percent overhead, close enough that the market is going to make you wait only a little before it shows its hand, far enough that it has not given in yet.
Below price, the intraday floor is at 4,309, the higher low the buyers have defended since the recovery began. So the entire battle right now is compressed into a band barely a percent wide, 4,309 on the floor, 4,355 on the ceiling. Gold is not trending here. It is loading.
The recovery that built this range was real. After the June 11 sweep of the lows under 4100 , price reversed hard and flipped the intraday structure up. 15m, 1H, and 4H all read bullish. But the hourly just printed a lower high directly into resistance, and that is the first tell worth respecting. The trend label still says bullish, but the most recent high came in beneath the prior one, right at the wall. That is what a bounce looks like when it starts to run out of buyers at the exact level that matters. Not broken, but tiring.
THE BIGGER FRAME HAS NOT TURNED
Zoom out and the disagreement sharpens. The daily is bearish. Price is carving lower highs and lower lows down from the February highs above 5,400, and the bounce off 4,0xx is, until proven otherwise, a bounce inside that structure. The daily wall is far away at 4,543, almost five percent up. For the daily to actually flip, bulls have to reclaim that, and nothing on this timeframe is close to it.
So the multi timeframe read is the same conflict that has defined gold all month, just tighter now. Intraday bullish, daily and weekly bearish. The lower timeframes turned first, the way they always do at a real reversal, but they have not yet dragged the daily with them, the way they fail to do at a mere bounce. That argument does not resolve on its own. It needs a catalyst. Tonight it gets one.
WHY TONIGHT IS THE TRIGGER, NOT THE RATE
No change is locked. That means the direction does not come from the decision, it comes from two things released alongside it.
The first is the projections, the dot plot. This is the first one published under Kevin Warsh, the new chair, and that raises the stakes. This is where the committee tells the market how many cuts or holds it expects from here. A set of dots that leans toward easing, that acknowledges the softening data, is dollar negative and gold positive. A set that stays higher for longer, that signals patience, is the opposite. The rate is a non event. The path is the event.
The second is the press conference at 00:00, and this is the real wildcard. It is Warsh's first as chair. The market spent years learning Powell's reaction function and pricing it. It has not seen Warsh run a room, field the hard questions, or set a tone under pressure. His profile is mixed on paper, a reputation for inflation discipline pulling one way, the expectation of a shift away from the prior easing bias pulling another, and the tape does not yet know which Warsh shows up. That uncertainty is exactly what turns a priced in hold into a thirty dollar candle. There is no model for a chair's debut.
The backdrop matters here. The data into this meeting has been soft. Housing Starts just missed badly, printing 1.177 million against a 1.43 million forecast. Retail Sales lands at 18:00 today, before the Fed, expected flat at 0.5 percent, and a weak number there feeds the same dovish narrative the market is already flirting with. Soft data gives a dovish Fed cover, and a dovish Fed is the fuel gold needs to attack 4,355. But cover is not commitment, and the committee has surprised hawkish into soft data before.
So the asymmetry is clean. The market is positioned for a hold and leaning for dovish color. That sets up the two ways tonight breaks the range.
THE TWO RESOLUTIONS
Dovish resolution. The dots soften, Warsh sounds patient about cuts and relaxed about growth, the dollar slips. Gold takes 4,345, closes through 4,355 with a body rather than a wick, and the intraday bulls finally drag the higher timeframe into a reversal attempt. The first objective is the 4,400s, then the daily wall up at 4,543 comes into the conversation. In this case the June 11 sweep gets named in hindsight as the low it always looked like, and the lower high on the hour was just the last shakeout before the break. The trigger is a clean reclaim of 4,355 on the close. The confirmation is price holding above it on the retest rather than falling straight back in.
Hawkish resolution. The dots stay firm, Warsh leans into his inflation discipline reputation and pushes back on the easing the market wants, the dollar bids. Gold rejects 4,355 again, the hourly lower high becomes the start of a real intraday turn, and a loss of 4,309 opens the move back down. First the 4,200s, then the 4,071 sweep low comes back into range, and a close below it re engages the full daily downtrend toward the high 3,900s. The trigger is the loss of 4,309 on a close after a failed test of resistance. The lower high already on the chart is the early warning that this path is live.
There is a third outcome that is not a cop out, it is the base case until the event prints: nothing. Pre FOMC tape is a graveyard for conviction. Liquidity thins, ranges tighten, and both sides get picked off by chop that means nothing. The most likely path between now and 23:30 is more of the same coil, 4,309 to 4,355, with fake pushes in both directions designed to trap anyone who mistakes pre event noise for a signal.
THE PRE EVENT PLAYBOOK
Do not fight the range before the print. The edge today is not in guessing the break, it is in refusing to pay for the chop. The market is compressed for a reason, and trying to front run a binary event inside a one percent box is how accounts bleed on a day that should be patient.
Respect the lower high on the hour for what it is, a caution flag, not a short signal. It says the bounce is tiring at resistance, which raises the bar for the bulls: they now need a decisive reclaim, not just another tag of 4,345. It does not yet give the bears anything either, because 4,309 still holds. Both sides are waiting on the same referee.
Let the event set the structure, then trade the structure. The clean play is to wait for the post FOMC reaction, let price pick a side of the range, and take the break with the level behind you as your stop. A body close above 4,355 that holds is the long. A body close below 4,309 after a failed retest of resistance is the short. Everything before that is positioning theater.
Size for the volatility, not against it. This is a day where stops get run on both sides within minutes. Whatever you would normally risk into a quiet tape, assume the range is wider tonight and the wicks are longer.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Gold is loading inside a one percent box, 4,309 to 4,355, with the intraday bulls stalling at the ceiling and the daily bears still in control of the bigger picture. The rate tonight is already priced, so the move comes from the dots and from Warsh's debut at the podium, against a backdrop of softening data that gives the doves an opening they have not yet been handed. Until 23:30 this is a range, and the disciplined trade is to let it be one. After 23:30, one of two things happens: gold reclaims 4,355 and turns the bounce into a reversal, or it rejects again, loses 4,309, and hands the trend back to the sellers who never actually left.
The chart has drawn the lines. The Fed pulls the trigger. Do not predict the candle. Mark 4,355 and 4,309, wait for the close, and trade the side the Fed chooses.
XAUUSD: Holding Above 4,286, Buyers Aim for 4,515The XAUUSD H4 chart is showing fairly positive recovery signals after the previous sharp decline. The price formed a bottom around the 4,050–4,100 area and gradually recovered to the 4,330.660 region. Notably, the price structure is showing signs of forming a base, while the 4,286.000 region has become a crucial support for buyers.
On the chart, the price is currently retesting the area around 4,359.633. If XAUUSD experiences a slight correction to 4,286.000 but still holds this area, it is highly likely that the market will form a higher bottom before continuing to rise. The main target is the upper resistance zone around 4,515.000.
With the USD weakening and expectations of a less hawkish Fed, gold still has the advantage to maintain its upward momentum. However, the 4,360 level is an area that needs to be clearly broken to confirm stronger buying pressure.
Reference strategy:
BUY: 4,286.000 – 4,320.000
SL: below 4,250.000
TP: 4,515.000
Conclusion: As long as 4,286.000 remains protected, XAUUSD still leans towards a further upward move to 4,515.000. Long 
GOLD PULLS BACK AFTER SIX DAYSBRIAN XAUUSD – GOLD PULLS BACK AFTER SIX-DAY HIGH
Gold is easing slightly after reaching a six-day high near 4,369, as buyers take a pause following the recent recovery. The move remains constructive, but short-term pressure is appearing as price trades below the 21-day SMA area near 4,400.
From a macro view, the US dollar is trying to fill Monday’s bearish opening gap as market optimism around the Iran agreement cools. This limits gold’s upside momentum in the short term and keeps the market vulnerable to a corrective pullback.
Technical structure
On the H1 chart, gold has recovered strongly from the lower value area and is now moving inside a rising trendline structure.
Price recently tested the Sell retest zone around 4,350 - 4,365, then started to slow down. This reaction shows that buyers still need more confirmation before gold can continue higher.
The key area I am watching is the Buy zone POC around 4,195 - 4,210. This is the main Volume Profile support below current price and the cleanest area to wait for a buy reaction if gold pulls back.
As long as gold stays above this POC zone and respects the rising trendline structure, the recovery remains valid. A deeper break below this zone would weaken the bullish correction.
Important zones
Sell retest zone: 4,350 - 4,365
Current resistance and reaction area.
Buy scalping zone: 4,245 - 4,255
Short-term support if price pulls back first.
Buy zone POC: 4,195 - 4,210
Main Volume Profile support and preferred buy area.
Trendline support:
Short-term bullish structure support.
21-day SMA area: 4,400
Major technical level gold needs to clear to reduce bearish risk.
Trading scenario
Buy reaction from Buy zone POC 4,195 - 4,210
Entry:
Look for buy positions only if price pulls back into 4,195 - 4,210 and shows clear bullish rejection.
Stop Loss:
Below the Buy zone POC or below the local swing low.
Take Profit:
TP1: 4,245
TP2: 4,350 - 4,365
TP3: 4,400
This setup is based on the main Volume Profile support where buyers may defend the next pullback if the recovery structure remains valid.
Final view
Gold is still in a recovery phase, but the market is losing some short-term momentum near resistance.
The professional approach is not to chase price at the high. I prefer waiting for a pullback into the Buy zone POC around 4,195 - 4,210, then watching for buy confirmation.
Above 4,400, gold can reduce bearish pressure. Below the POC zone, the recovery structure becomes weaker.
Trade the retest. Respect the volume zone. Long 
Gold Holds Recovery Structure, Buyers Target $4,380Gold is consolidating above the $4,320–4,330 area after a strong recovery from recent lows. The move does not look overheated yet, which suggests buyers may still be building positions before another push higher.
As long as the $4,300 area holds, the short-term bias remains constructive. A continuation move could take XAUUSD toward $4,360 first, followed by $4,380–4,400.
Trade Setup:
Buy Zone: $4,320 – $4,330
Stop Loss: $4,295
Take Profit 1: $4,360
Take Profit 2: $4,380
Take Profit 3: $4,400 Long 
Gold Analysis & Trading Strategy | June 17🌐Hello traders! I’m Jack Blackwell, with 15 years of experience in analysis and trading in the futures and forex markets. Below are my technical analysis views based on the current XAUUSD (4H and 1H timeframes) chart structure.
✅ 4-Hour Trend Analysis
From the 4-hour chart, gold has maintained a bullish consolidation structure since rebounding from the 4024 low, although the upward momentum has noticeably slowed compared to the previous rally.
The price is currently trading above the MA20, while the MA5 and MA10 have flattened out, indicating that the market has shifted from a strong uptrend into a sideways consolidation phase. Although the Bollinger Bands remain upward-sloping, the upper band has started to flatten while the middle band continues to rise. This suggests that the medium-term bullish structure remains intact, but further upside will likely require fresh buying momentum and capital inflows.
✅ 1-Hour Trend Analysis
On the 1-hour chart, gold is currently trading in a typical range-bound market. After rallying to 4369, the price failed to break higher and subsequently entered a pullback phase, now fluctuating repeatedly around the 4335–4340 area.
The Bollinger Bands have narrowed significantly, with the price moving around the middle band. Declining volatility suggests that the market is waiting for a new breakout direction.
It is also worth noting that several recent candles have formed long lower shadows, indicating that buying interest remains active around the 4300–4320 area and that bulls have not yet given up defending the market.
🔴 Key Resistance Levels
● 4345–4363 (current short-term resistance zone)
● 4418 (important medium-term resistance)
● 4467 (major structural resistance)
🟢 Key Support Levels
● 4325–4310 (current short-term support zone)
● 4259 (first support level)
● 4211 (important support level)
● 4156 (major support area)
✅ Trading Strategy Reference
🔰 Short Position Strategy (Sell at Resistance)
👉 SELL Zone: 4345–4365
🎯 Targets: 4330 → 4315 → 4259
📍 Reason: Resistance near the previous high area + 1-hour Bollinger Band consolidation + weakening MACD momentum.
🔰 Long Position Strategy (Buy on Pullbacks)
👉 BUY Zone 1: 4315–4330
👉 BUY Zone 2: 4250–4265
🎯 Targets: 4360 → 4369 → 4418
📍 Reason: The overall 4-hour rebound structure remains intact + effective support from the Bollinger middle band + strong buying interest below.
⚠️ Trend Outlook
👉 If the price breaks above and holds firmly above 4369, bulls may gain further upside momentum, with the next target near 4418.
👉 If the price continues to face resistance in the 4363–4369 area, the market will likely remain in a high-level consolidation range.
👉 If the price falls below 4315 support, the short-term correction could extend toward the 4259 area.
🔔 If you find this analysis helpful, please support me by liking and commenting, which will encourage me to share more high-quality content. Also, feel free to share your thoughts on the future price movement of this chart! 
Short
XAUUSD (Gold) 1H Chart AnalysisGold is showing a strong bullish continuation pattern on the 1-hour timeframe. After forming a large Cup & Handle structure, price has recovered sharply from the 4,040 support area and is now testing a key resistance zone around 4,360–4,370.
The recent consolidation beneath resistance appears to be the handle formation, indicating accumulation before a potential breakout. Buyers continue to defend higher lows, keeping bullish momentum intact.
Key Levels
📍 Resistance: 4,360 – 4,370
📍 Support: 4,290 – 4,300
📍 Target: 4,490 – 4,500
📍 Stop Loss: Below 4,290
Trade Idea
Wait for a confirmed breakout and close above the resistance zone.
A successful breakout could trigger a strong bullish expansion toward the 4,490+ target area.
If price fails to break resistance, a short-term pullback toward support remains possible before the next bullish attempt.
Technical Outlook
✅ Cup & Handle formation
✅ Higher highs and higher lows
✅ Bullish market structure
✅ Breakout retest opportunity
Bias: Bullish Above 4,360
Educational content only. Always use proper risk management before entering any trade.
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