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Gold Bulls Poised to Launch a New RallyGold surged sharply again after opening today, rebounding to a high near the previous peak of 4140 before facing resistance and pulling back. The trend has now shifted from bearish to bullish. This shift is primarily driven by a confluence of factors: a stream of recent news favorable to gold, market expectations of a low probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike, and the resulting inflow of capital into the asset.
Yesterday, I noted that the upside resistance lay at the $4100 mark; however, gold easily broke through this level today, signaling the start of a new rally. In this type of market environment, the strategy is simply to follow the trend. As I often emphasize: one should short gold when the market is weak and go long when the market is strong. Crucially, one should not attempt to short gold after it has broken to new highs following a rebound.
For today's trading, we need to focus on three points: 1. Look to go long on intraday pullbacks. 2. If gold maintains its strength during the European session, continue to go long during the US session. 3. If prices rise during the Asian and European sessions and show resilience against a decline during the US session, continue to go long the following day.
The key downside level to watch is 4076, which marked the low point after the opening. On the hourly chart, the base of the largest bullish candle sits near 4100—a level that coincides with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement point and serves as a support floor. Meanwhile, the 0.382 retracement level for the move from 4076 to 4142 is located at 4117. Based on this analysis, I believe a pullback to the 4095–4110 range presents a good opportunity to go long. On the upside, watch for resistance in the 4170–4180 range. Long 
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What the Market does first, decides what is to be done next.Hello Traders!
On the daily chart and the higher timeframes, my overall bias on NQ remains bearish . The primary higher-timeframe draw is 28,277.75. If you grab the price scale and pull it down, you'll see the level marked in green.
In the shorter term, however, I see a bullish price fractal that began during the Monday, 28th July Asian session and extends to the current price action.
From here, there are two possible paths , and which one becomes relevant depends entirely on what the market does first.
If the market first takes the 29,364.75 buyside liquidity, I'll expect it to retrace into the 15-minute fair value gap that I've marked before looking for the next opportunity.
On the other hand, if the market first trades into the 15-minute fair value gap, shows support there with a clean displacement and an appropriate execution model , then I'll expect it to rally toward the 29,364.75 buyside .
This isn't a two-sided bias. The approach is conditional.
The market will decide the sequence, and I'll simply respond to it. Whichever objective is reached first will determine the next trade idea.
Stay honest to yourself,
Satya. Gold Spot / USD (XAU/USD) chart focused on short-term price actiThis is a 1-hour (1H) Gold Spot / USD (XAU/USD) chart focused on short-term price action.
Current Market Structure
Current Price: Around 4,142 USD.
Price has rallied strongly from the 3,940–3,980 USD demand zone.
The market is now testing a major resistance/supply zone around 4,130–4,150 USD (green rectangle).
Key Levels
Resistance:
4,130–4,150 USD (current resistance)
4,200–4,250 USD (next supply zone if price breaks higher)
Support:
4,060–4,080 USD
3,940–3,980 USD (strong demand zone)
Possible Scenarios
Bullish:
If a 1H candle closes above 4,150 USD with strong volume, buyers could target:
4,200 USD
4,250 USD
Potentially higher if momentum continues.
Bearish:
If price is rejected from the current resistance, it may pull back toward:
4,080 USD
Then 4,000–3,950 USD if selling pressure increases.
Additional Observation
The blue vertical projection on the right appears to indicate the analyst expects high volatility around July 25, but it does not specify the direction. It marks a time window rather than a confirmed price target.
Overall outlook: The short-term trend is bullish, but price is sitting at a significant resistance zone. Waiting for either:
a confirmed breakout above 4,150 USD, or
a clear rejection from this zone,
would provide a stronger trading signal than entering immediately. Long 
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The chart is a 1-Day (1D) Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar (XAU/USD)The chart is a 1-Day (1D) Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar (XAU/USD) chart with a hand-drawn technical analysis. Based on the visible price action:
Chart Summary
Current Price: Around 4,132 USD
Trend: Long-term uptrend remains intact because price is still above the rising trendline (light blue).
Recent Pattern: Price has been making lower highs and lower lows after the all-time high, forming a corrective downtrend.
Key Technical Levels
Major Resistance: 5,300–5,500 USD (purple highlighted supply zone).
Immediate Support: 4,050–4,100 USD (where price is currently bouncing from the ascending trendline).
Next Support: Around 3,900–4,000 USD if the trendline breaks.
What the Drawing Suggests
The analyst expects the current bounce from the ascending trendline to continue.
If buyers hold above the trendline and break the recent lower high near 4,500–4,600 USD, the price could target:
4,800 USD
5,000 USD
Eventually retest the 5,300–5,500 USD resistance zone.
Bullish Scenario
Trendline support holds.
Daily candles close above 4,500–4,600 USD.
Momentum increases toward previous highs.
Bearish Scenario
A daily close below the ascending trendline (around 4,050 USD) would weaken the bullish outlook.
Price could then decline toward 3,900 USD or lower before finding stronger support.
Overall, this chart presents a bullish rebound idea, but confirmation would come from a break above the recent swing highs. Until then, the market is still recovering from its correction. Long 
Gold faces critical breakout testGold has been in a downtrend since peaking in early March, testing the trendline several times in mid-May and early June but failing to produce a breakout. It is now approaching the trendline again, with resistance around $4,130.
A breakout above $4,130 would be a positive development and could pave the way for a move back towards $4,400.
Moving averages leave more to prove
Gold is still consolidating and has only recently moved slightly above both its 10-day exponential moving average and 20-day simple moving average. The 50-day simple moving average sits just ahead at around $4,250.
The trendline has been tested several times, but so far it has failed to produce a meaningful breakout. That keeps the current move in a testing phase rather than confirming a full technical shift.
Gold continues to hold support around $4,000, although the broader technical picture still resembles a descending triangle, a bearish technical pattern.
Fundamentals are also working against gold, with rising real yields and a strengthening US dollar potentially acting as a headwind for precious and industrial metals.
Momentum is showing some improvement, with the relative strength index breaking above its own downtrend. That suggests momentum may be starting to shift.
If gold were to break above $4,200, it would likely confirm a cleaner breakout and open the way for a move towards $4,400, with scope for further gains beyond that. For now, however, there is still much to be proven.
Written by Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management.
Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed.
No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. Long 
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Gold Rebuilds Bullish Momentum Near 4,058.90Gold is starting to show renewed strength around 4,058.90 after forming a clear reversal from the lower support area. The recent reaction suggests that sellers are losing momentum, while buyers are beginning to take control of the structure again.
On the 4-hour OANDA chart, spot gold has respected its major support zone and moved out of the short-term descending wedge. This breakout shifts attention back to the upside, especially while price continues to hold above the key demand area.
At the moment, gold is testing supply near 4,060. A short pause or consolidation here would be normal after the recovery move. If buyers continue defending the current structure, the next upside objective remains the major resistance area around 4,200.
The important point now is patience. Chasing short positions after a clean breakout from higher-timeframe support may carry additional risk, especially while price action continues to build higher. A more balanced approach is to wait for confirmation, manage risk carefully and watch how gold reacts around the current zone.
Trade Parameters:
🛒 Long Zone: 4,040 - 4,065
🛑 Stop-Loss: 4h close below 3,980
💰 Take-Profit: 4,200
If gold keeps holding above the current support structure, the bullish continuation scenario remains active. The move toward 4,200 is still on the table, but disciplined risk management is essential while the market works through this breakout phase. Long 
XAUUSD — Bullish Retest AheadGold remains sensitive to the US dollar, Treasury yields and interest-rate expectations. Softer yields or renewed USD weakness could support the bullish structure, while stronger US data may trigger a temporary correction.
Technical View
On the H2 chart, XAUUSD has broken above the descending trendline and confirmed a bullish CHOCH around 4,080. The strong displacement toward 4,130–4,140 shows that buyers currently control the short-term structure.
However, RSI is trading near 70, suggesting that price may be temporarily extended. I would prefer to see a controlled retracement before considering further bullish continuation.
Key Levels
Immediate resistance: 4,135–4,145
Primary demand: 4,040–4,055
Deeper support: 4,018–4,030
Higher liquidity: 4,190–4,200
Trading Scenario
My bias remains bullish while price holds above the broken trendline and the 4,018–4,055 demand area.
A pullback into 4,040–4,055, followed by bullish confirmation, could support another expansion toward 4,190–4,200. A deeper retracement into 4,018–4,030 may still preserve the bullish structure, but a decisive break below this region would weaken the scenario.
Overall View
The trendline breakout and bullish CHOCH support further upside, but the overbought RSI suggests patience may be needed before the next expansion.
Do you expect XAUUSD to retest demand first or continue directly toward 4,200? Long 
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Gold In-Depth Technical Analysis: Key Pullback Expected After WeGold In-Depth Technical Analysis: Key Pullback Expected After Wedge Breakout; Short-Term High-Level Correction a Warning
I. Market Fundamentals Overview
The gold market has recently been rising steadily amid fluctuations, primarily supported by global macroeconomic expectations. Although inflation data remains uncertain, the market is recalibrating its pricing of future monetary policies by major central banks (especially the Federal Reserve). Meanwhile, recurring geopolitical tensions and concerns about the growth prospects of major global economies continue to provide underlying buying support for gold as a safe-haven asset. However, after continuous gains, gold prices are currently facing a significant technical resistance zone, with increased short-term profit-taking pressure creating downward pressure for a short-term pullback.
II. In-Depth Technical Analysis
From a technical chart perspective, gold has experienced a classic "triangle consolidation" pattern over the past few weeks (marked by the purple area and red descending resistance line in the chart). This process ended with a strong bullish breakout in mid-July, after which gold prices steadily rose along an ascending channel (the two white sloping lines in the chart).
Pullback Confirmation After Breakout: Gold prices have successfully held above previous resistance levels (around 4,088 and 4,060) and broken through the key psychological level of 4,100. The yellow and white arrows on the chart indicate a bullish, step-like upward trend. However, the current price (around 4,124) is facing resistance at the important short-term resistance level of 4,138.
Ascending Channel Test: Prices are currently testing the upper boundary of the ascending channel. After two consecutive days of gains, the price action shows signs of stagnation at higher levels. The "Second low adjustment area" marked on the chart confirms strong support below. However, this does not preclude a deeper pullback towards the lower channel boundary (around 4,080-4,090) upon reaching the upper channel boundary.
Key Levels for Bulls and Bears:
Upside Resistance: Strong short-term resistance is around 4,138. A decisive break above this level would target 4,171 and then 4,200.
Downside Support: Initial short-term support lies in the 4,122 and 4,088 range.
III. Short-Term Trading Strategy: Shorting at Higher Levels
Given the current price action at the upper edge of an upward channel and the resistance at 4,138, coupled with divergence signs in momentum indicators like KD/RSI on the hourly chart, our short-term strategy is to "be bullish but not actively trade, and short at higher levels." We suggest initiating small short positions when the price touches the resistance zone.
🔥 Key short-term trading signals for Gold (XAUUSD) are as follows:
❤️┋ ┋❤️⏱️ Level:
🎯 Direction: @ (It is recommended to enter in batches around 4128)
🛑 SL: ⏹️ (Strict stop loss; if this level is broken, it proves that the bullish momentum has not exhausted, and you should exit and observe)
✅ TP1: 💎 (First target level; after reaching it, you can move the stop loss to a protective level)
✅ TP2: 💎 (Second target level, i.e., the lower support area of the ascending channel)
IV. Summary and Risk Control
Although the overall medium-term trend remains bullish, the short-term gold price is in a key resistance area, and the demand for a pullback is strong. Strict stop loss measures are necessary in trading; avoid heavy leverage. If the price surges strongly and breaks through the 4,145 stop-loss level, short positions should be decisively abandoned, and a long position should be initiated.
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