XAUUSD: Upcoming Pullback SessionXAUUSD is trading around $4,640; the H4 candle has dropped nearly 1% after the price approached the $4,680–$4,700 zone but failed to sustain its upward momentum.
From a technical perspective, Gold has extended significantly beyond the EMA34 and EMA89, and selling pressure is emerging near the highs. If the price continues to struggle in the $4,660–$4,700 range, I anticipate a pullback to the $4,420–$4,520 support zone, with the $4,480 level being particularly noteworthy.
This should be viewed as a technical pullback within a broader bullish trend, rather than a full bearish reversal.
Futures market
Gold Liquidity Sweep: Short 4,660 or Buy 4,570?
Market Overview
• Macro Driver: Spot Gold hovers near $4,651 on Tuesday, August 25, 2026, pulling back from fresh highs around $4,696. Institutional capital is trimming long exposure to rebalance portfolios ahead of the high-stakes Jackson Hole Economic Symposium (Aug 27–29), where Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to deliver a major policy address.
• Market Condition: Smart money is engineering a corrective distribution phase. The failure to sustain momentum above the 4,696.928 Weak High has catalyzed an aggressive sell-side displacement, breaking the multi-day ascending support trendline.
Technical Context
• Structure: Corrective Bearish Distribution. On the 1H timeframe, price swept buy-side liquidity above the 4,690 level, printing a Weak High at 4,696.928 before an impulsive bearish rejection broke below the Ascending Support Trendline.
• Liquidity & Imbalance: Price is currently printing a corrective relief bounce toward 4,650–4,660 to mitigate the trendline breakdown point. The algorithm is magnetically drawn toward the unmitigated Discount Demand / FVG Pool (4,560 – 4,580 blue box).
Key Zones
• Weak High / Liquidity Sweep Zone: 4,696.928 (Grey Supply Block)
• Immediate Market Price: 4,651.08
• Breakdown Retest Pivot: 4,655.00 – 4,665.00
• Primary Target / Discount Demand Box: 4,560.00 – 4,580.00
• Secondary Demand Floor: 4,520.00 – 4,540.00
• Macro Structural Floor (Strong Low): 4,324.24
Trading Plan (IF–THEN)
• IF price completes the corrective bounce into the 4,655 – 4,665 trendline retest zone AND confirms lower-timeframe (M5/M15) bearish displacement -> THEN look to execute Short positions targeting 4,620 and expanding toward the 4,560 – 4,580 primary demand block.
• IF price invalidates the breakdown by reclaiming and closing an H1 candle above 4,697 -> THEN the corrective pullback narrative is canceled, reopening continuation toward 4,720+.
MMFLOW View
• Bias: Corrective Bearish Retest. Buying the top after a clean liquidity sweep carries high downside risk; the statistical edge favors shorting internal relief bounces into deep discount demand arrays.
Are you shorting the trendline retest toward 4,570, or looking to buy the dip at lower demand
XAUUSD Long Setup: Bullish Reversal at Key SupportGold (XAUUSD) is showing strong signs of bullish momentum after holding above a key demand zone. Price action indicates buying interest with a clean rejection off support, setting up a favorable risk-to-reward long entry.
Bias: Bullish / Long
Strategy: Support Rejection & Momentum Follow-through
Key Focus: Resistance targets & trailing stop management
#XAUUSD #Gold #Forex
XAUUSD: Bearish Reversal at 4,675 Resistance
Gold (XAU/USD) on the 30-minute chart is approaching a critical resistance/supply zone around 4,670–4,680 after a strong bullish move.
🔴 Bearish setup:
Price has pushed into the marked supply area and appears to be forming a potential liquidity sweep / SMT divergence near the highs. If buyers fail to break and hold above this zone, a downside reversal becomes likely.
Key levels:
🔴 Resistance / Supply: 4,670–4,680
🛑 Invalidation: Above 4,698
🎯 Target 1: 4,640
🎯 Target 2: 4,600
🎯 Target 3: 4,565
The 4,640 area is the first important downside level. A break below it could accelerate the move toward the sell-side liquidity around 4,595–4,600.
For the bearish scenario, the ideal confirmation would be a rejection from 4,670–4,680 followed by a break of the short-term rising structure.
Bias: 📉 Bearish below 4,680
Bullish invalidation: Sustained acceptance above 4,698.
Educational technical analysis, not financial advice.
Natural Gas: Buy Zone 210–222 | September Time CycleNatural Gas Futures – Weekly Analysis
Price is currently trading around 266.
I am watching the 210–222 zone as a potential buying area.
The setup is based on:
Weekly structure & historical support
61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone
Gann time-cycle observation
Potential Elliott Wave flat correction completing around September-end
Potential upside levels:
🎯 295
🎯 375
🎯 473
The idea is conditional — I would look for a suitable reversal/confirmation near the 210–222 zone rather than entering blindly.
Time window: September 2026
⚠️ Subject to market risk. This is a technical analysis idea, not financial advice.
Tags
#NaturalGas #MCX #TradingIdea #TechnicalAnalysis #Fibonacci #Gann #ElliottWave #Commodities #Trading
Crude Oil Breakdown: Technicals Setup a Potential ~19% downsideTechnical Summary: Crude Oil Futures (Daily Chart)
1. Pattern Formation (Symmetrical Triangle / Symmetrical Wedge)
Structure: Price action on the daily chart shows a prolonged period of consolidation bounded by a downward-sloping resistance line (lower highs) and an upward-sloping support line (higher lows).
Compression: Volatility has narrowed significantly as prices approach the apex of this triangular structure, signaling that a major directional move is imminent.
2. Bearish Breakout Attempt & Downside Target
Breakdown Point: The latest daily candle shows a strong bearish move (−3.70%), penetrating the lower boundary of the triangle near the 7,900 – 7,950 region.
Measured Move Objective: The primary target of 6,314 represents a drop of ~1,528 points (−19.56%) from the breakdown level, calculated by projecting the height of the triangle’s base downwards from the breakout region.
Target Alignment: This projected target aligns directly with the prior major horizontal swing low around the 6,300 zone established earlier in July.
3. Key Technical Levels
Immediate Resistance: 8,000 – 8,050 (Apex area / former trendline support turned resistance).
Upper Resistance (Invalidation): 8,399 (Recent local high along the descending trendline).
Primary Downside Target: 6,314 (~18–20% projected move).
XAUUSD 30M — MFTC | Expanding Triangle Fakeout → Bullish ReversaXAUUSD is developing a 30M Expanding Triangle, with an internal triangle structure forming inside the larger range.
According to the Market Footprinting Trading Concept (MFTC), the current breakdown below the internal structure could represent a hunting move / liquidity sweep rather than an immediate continuation of the bearish move.
🔎 MFTC MARKET STRUCTURE
Price is now approaching the marked REVERSAL / HUNTING ZONE around 4,600–4,592.
The key idea is:
HUNTING → REVERSAL → EXPANSION
I am NOT looking to blindly buy the first touch of the reversal zone.
Instead, the focus is on the 5M–15M internal reaction.
🟢 BULLISH SCENARIO
If price enters the hunting zone and then creates:
• Lower-timeframe rejection
• Internal bullish structure
• 5M–15M IR reversal
• Break/reclaim of the immediate bearish structure
→ This could confirm the MFTC bullish reversal setup.
⚠️ INVALIDATION
If price accepts below the marked hunting/reversal zone and fails to produce the required 5M–15M bullish structure, the reversal setup is invalid.
Therefore, the current move should be treated as conditional, not as an immediate long signal.
🎯 MFTC ROADMAP
30M: Expanding Triangle
↓
Internal Triangle: Bearish breakout / possible fakeout
↓
HUNTING ZONE: ~4,600–4,592
↓
5M–15M: Wait for IR + bullish structure
↓
REVERSAL: Potential upside expansion
The breakdown is not the confirmation.
The lower-timeframe reversal is the confirmation.
Market Footprinting Trading Concept (MFTC)
#XAUUSD #GOLD #GoldTrading #MFTC #MarketFootprinting #PriceAction #TradingView #Forex #LiquidityHunt #Fakeout #BullishReversal #TechnicalAnalysis
XAUUSD/GOLD 1H SELL LIMIT PROJECTION 25.08.26XAUUSD / GOLD – 1H Sell Limit Projection | 25.08.2026
The chart shows a bearish sell-limit setup based on the confluence of an ascending trendline + resistance zone.
Sell Zone: Around 4650.97
Price is expected to retrace toward this area. The 4650 zone acts as resistance and also meets the rising trendline, creating a stronger potential rejection area.
Stop Loss: 4662.84
If price breaks and sustains above this level, the bearish setup becomes weaker/invalid.
Targets:
TP1: Around 4640 – first support / partial-profit zone
TP2: Around 4630–4631 – stronger intraday support area
TP3: 4601.27 – major downside target if bearish momentum continues
Why Sell?
Trendline + Resistance = Sell Confirmation.
The idea is not to sell at the current 4630 area. Instead, wait for a pullback toward 4650 and look for bearish confirmation such as rejection candles, bearish engulfing, or momentum weakness.
From an entry near 4650.97, risk to the stop is roughly 11.9 points, while the final target offers about 49.7 points of potential movement — approximately 1:4 risk-to-reward.
Bias: 🔴 Bearish below 4662.84
Main Sell Area: 4650–4651
Major Target: 4601
XAU/USD 45-Minute Technical Analysis Market Structure
The chart shows a **clear bullish market structure** on the 45-minute timeframe.
* Price has established a sequence of **higher highs and higher lows** from the 4,320–4,350 area.
* The previous bullish **MSB (Market Structure Break)** around 4,400 confirmed a shift from bearish/sideways conditions into an upward structure.
* Subsequent price action continued to print higher highs, reaching the **4,680–4,690 resistance area**.
* After that rally, gold entered a consolidation phase around **4,620–4,650**, which currently looks more like a bullish pause than a confirmed reversal.
### Key Levels
| Level | Role | Interpretation |
| --------------- | ------------------- | ---------------------------------------------- |
| **4,760** | TP2 / Major target | Extension target if bullish momentum continues |
| **4,700–4,705** | TP1 / Resistance | First profit-taking zone |
| **4,635–4,650** | Current price area | Immediate decision zone |
| **4,600** | SL / Key support | Important invalidation level |
| **4,340–4,370** | Bullish Order Block | Major demand zone |
### Bullish Scenario
The preferred setup remains **buy-the-dip / bullish continuation**, provided price maintains the 4,600 structural support.
A strong 45-minute candle close above the **4,650–4,660** area would strengthen the case for another attempt at the previous high near 4,680–4,690.
A sustained break above that high could open the path toward:
**4,700 → 4,760**
The chart's projected targets are therefore technically consistent with the existing bullish structure.
### Risk & Trade Management
Using the chart's approximate levels:
* **Current price:** 4,637
* **Stop:** 4,600
* **TP1:** ~4,700
* **TP2:** ~4,760
From the current price, the approximate risk/reward is:
* **TP1:** ~1.7R
* **TP2:** ~3.3R
A professional approach would be to consider taking **partial profit around 4,700** and then protecting the remaining position if momentum confirms the breakout.
### Bearish Invalidation
The most important level on this chart is **4,600**.
A decisive 45-minute close below 4,600 would weaken the bullish thesis and suggest that the consolidation is becoming a deeper correction rather than continuation.
If 4,600 fails, I would **not treat the long setup as valid** without a new structural confirmation. The next significant demand area visible on the chart is substantially lower, around the **4,340–4,370 bullish order block**.
### Professional Bias
**Overall Bias: 🟢 BULLISH**
The higher-timeframe structure visible in this chart favors continuation, while the current consolidation provides the market with an opportunity to build energy for another upward move.
**Primary path:**
**4,637 → 4,650/4,660 → 4,700 → 4,760**
**Invalidation:**
**45-minute sustained break below 4,600**
The key thing to watch now is whether buyers can reclaim **4,650–4,660** and subsequently break the **4,680–4,690 swing high**. Until 4,600 is decisively lost, the chart remains structurally bullish.
Did you expect Oil prices to go up?When prices stopped at the top end of this falling channel I was willing to change my wave marking to an X. The initial fall was three waves and is now marked as 'w'. That did make it difficult. Brent crude is what everyone is looking at but I look at both just in case one gives a clearer picture than the other. In this case WTI crude was helpful in marking wave 5 at the top first and then the entire decline into a complex wave. Now if we are in wave Z we will retest 59$
H2 Premium Liquidity Retracement Setup
XAUUSD is trading around 4,671 after another strong bullish expansion into the upper H2 premium area. The broader structure remains bullish, but price is now extended near the upper trendline and major liquidity zone, increasing the probability of a corrective retracement.
Gold remains fundamentally supported after reaching its highest level in more than three months. A softer U.S. dollar and lower Treasury yields following expanded Treasury bond-buyback plans have helped maintain demand for gold. Gold-backed ETFs also recorded their strongest inflows in ten months. The next major catalysts are U.S. PCE inflation and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, while renewed Iran sanctions remain an additional volatility risk.
Technical View
Gold has maintained a strong sequence of bullish BOS signals and continues to trade inside the broader rising structure.
However, the latest expansion has pushed price directly into the 4,665–4,700 premium / liquidity zone near the upper trendline. This is no longer an attractive area to chase longs.
A liquidity sweep followed by bearish rejection could trigger the corrective path shown on the chart.
The first important downside area is 4,540–4,575. This previous breakout structure may produce the first reaction and temporary rebound.
If sellers continue to control the correction, the main retracement objective sits around 4,455–4,490, where major demand and the final retracement zone align.
The broader bullish trend remains intact while this demand holds.
Key Zones
Current price: 4,671
Sell Priority: 4,665–4,700
Premium / liquidity zone: 4,665–4,705
First retest zone: 4,540–4,575
Major demand / final retracement: 4,455–4,490
H2 measured range support: 4,310.354
Bearish setup invalidation: above 4,710
Trading Plan
Sell Priority: 4,665–4,700
Condition: wait for an H2 liquidity sweep followed by bearish rejection, failed acceptance above premium or lower-high confirmation.
SL: above 4,710
TP1: 4,540–4,575
TP2: 4,500
TP3: 4,455–4,490
Important Note
This is a corrective sell setup inside a strongly bullish H2 structure, not a confirmed bearish trend reversal.
Price may remain volatile inside premium before the retracement begins. Avoid chasing a breakdown after gold has already moved away from the entry area.
Sustained H2 acceptance above 4,710 would weaken the corrective view and suggest bullish expansion is still active.
Final View
Gold remains structurally bullish, but price has reached an extended premium area after a strong expansion. The cleaner short-term plan is to wait for bearish confirmation inside 4,665–4,700 before targeting 4,550 and potentially the major demand zone around 4,455–4,490.
Will gold sweep the premium liquidity first before starting the H2 correction?
XAUUSD : Retest of Demand Zone After Upward Channel BreakoutTradingView Idea Description
Market Analysis
Structure: Gold (XAUUSD) underwent a Break of Structure (BOS) near 4,540, establishing strong bullish momentum.
Pattern: Following the initial impulse, price moved within a well-defined Upward Channel.
Current Action: Price experienced a correction out of the channel and is now holding right at the key Demand Zone around 4,625 – 4,635.
Trade Setup
Bias: Bullish Continuation / Rebound
Entry Zone: 4,625 - 4,635 (Current Demand Zone)
Target 1: 4,670 (Intermediate resistance / High of recent correction)
Target 2: 4,695 - 4,700 (Channel top / Major high)
Invalidation / Stop Loss: Below the bottom of the demand zone (~4,615).
XAUUSD — Buy the H1 Channel PullbackFundamental Analysis
Gold is trading near a fresh three-month high as a weaker U.S. dollar continues to support demand following the Treasury’s expansion of long-dated bond buybacks. Markets are now focused on upcoming U.S. PCE inflation data and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks, while geopolitical tension around Iran may also keep safe-haven demand elevated.
Technical Analysis
On the H1 chart, XAUUSD is trading near 4,645 inside a clear ascending channel after several bullish BOS formations. Price is consolidating just below the 4,650–4,660 liquidity zone, so chasing the current move offers limited value. The preferred buy zone is 4,620–4,630, where rising dynamic support and the recent breakout structure converge. If this zone holds with bullish confirmation, gold could sweep 4,660 before extending toward 4,680–4,695.
Important Key Levels
Current price: 4,644.99
Main buy zone: 4,620–4,630
Short-term support: 4,600–4,610
Short-term resistance: 4,650–4,660
Liquidity area: 4,650–4,660
Main target: 4,680–4,695
Invalidation: below 4,595
Trading Scenario
Main Buy Setup
Entry: 4,620–4,630
Stop Loss: 4,595
Take Profit 1: 4,650–4,660
Take Profit 2: 4,680
Take Profit 3: 4,690–4,695
Buy Condition
Wait for price to retrace into the main buy zone and show bullish confirmation. A liquidity sweep, long lower wick, bullish engulfing candle, failed breakdown, or H1 reclaim above 4,630 may confirm renewed buyer pressure. If price breaks and holds below 4,595, the bullish setup is no longer valid.
Overall View
The H1 structure remains bullish while XAUUSD holds inside the rising channel and above recent breakout support. The preferred plan is to avoid chasing near liquidity and wait for a controlled retracement into 4,620–4,630 before targeting 4,660 and potentially 4,680–4,695. A deeper test of 4,600–4,610 may occur if the first support fails.
Do you expect gold to retest 4,620–4,630 before the next bullish expansion?
GOLD 25/08 – CORRECTION: TRADE REACTION | H1 SCALPINGGold remains in a bullish H1 structure, but price is currently undergoing a short-term correction after rejecting the 4,675–4,685 supply zone. For today, Emma's approach is simple: let price reach the key zones and wait for confirmation before entering.
🔴 KEY RESISTANCE
4,675–4,685 | SUPPLY ZONE
The nearest resistance where selling pressure has already appeared. If Gold retraces into this area and shows rejection + bearish CHoCH/BOS on M5/M15, look for a SELL scalp.
4,720–4,730 | MAJOR RESISTANCE
If price breaks and holds above 4,685, this becomes the next upside target. Avoid selling against a confirmed breakout.
🟢 KEY SUPPORT
4,600–4,610 | FIRST BUY ZONE
The first area to watch during the correction. If price reacts strongly and confirms a bullish structure on lower timeframes, look for a BUY with the main trend.
4,535–4,545 | MAJOR DEMAND ZONE
A deeper H1 demand area. If the correction extends, this becomes the key zone for a potential trend-following BUY after confirmation.
🎯 EMMA SCALPING PLAN
BUY SCENARIO
Gold pulls back into 4,600–4,610 → bullish reaction + M5/M15 confirmation → BUY.
🎯 Target 1: 4,675
🎯 Target 2: 4,720
If 4,600 breaks decisively, don't rush into a BUY. Wait for the deeper 4,535–4,545 demand zone.
SELL SCENARIO
Gold retraces into 4,675–4,685 → rejection + bearish confirmation → SELL scalp.
🎯 Target 1: 4,610
🎯 Target 2: 4,535
If 4,685 breaks and successfully retests as support, invalidate the SELL setup and look for BUY continuation.
EMMA'S RULE:
LET PRICE COME TO THE ZONE → WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION → TRADE THE REACTION.
XAUUSD: Watching Demand Zone for Potential RecoveryXAUUSD is currently trading near a marked demand zone around the 4,603–4,618 area after a sharp decline from the higher supply region.
The current structure suggests that the demand zone is an important area to monitor. If buyers defend this region and price begins to establish higher lows, a recovery toward the 4,675–4,695 supply zone could become possible.
The analysis is based on the interaction between the current demand area and the overhead supply zone:
- Demand zone: 4,603–4,618
- Supply zone: 4,675–4,695
- Current focus: Price reaction and structure around demand
A sustained move below the demand zone would weaken the bullish recovery scenario and could indicate continued downside pressure instead.
This idea focuses on observing price structure and market reaction around the highlighted zones rather than predicting a guaranteed outcome.
Educational market analysis only. Always consider your own risk management and market conditions.
XAUUSD: Bearish ABC Correction From Sell Zone
Gold is still trading inside a strong higher-timeframe recovery, but the current short-term structure is showing correction risk. From Kelly’s view, price has reacted near the upper area after completing a bullish wave, and the next move may develop as an ABC pullback before buyers return again.
The key idea is simple: gold may rise slightly first into the sell zone, then continue lower to complete wave C.
⟡ Market structure
Gold is currently trading around 4,636 after rejecting from the upper resistance area. The chart shows price is holding below the 4,650–4,665 Sell wave B zone, while the stronger bullish confirmation is still far above near 4,697.
As long as gold stays below this resistance, the short-term structure favors a corrective move lower.
The first support to watch is 4,618. If this level breaks, price may continue towards the buy scalping zones around 4,600–4,610 and 4,570–4,580. The deeper target is the End wave C zone around 4,535–4,545.
➤ Key levels
◌ 4,650–4,665: Sell wave B zone
◌ 4,636: current price area
◌ 4,618: strong support
◌ 4,600–4,610: first buy scalping area
◌ 4,570–4,580: second buy scalping area
◌ 4,535–4,545: End wave C target zone
◌ 4,697: bullish confirmation / invalidation area
⌁ Elliott Wave view
Gold may have completed a short-term bullish wave 5 near the recent high. After that, the current move is likely forming an ABC correction.
Wave A may be the first decline from the top.
Wave B may retest the 4,650–4,665 resistance zone.
Wave C may continue lower towards 4,535–4,545 if sellers remain in control.
This means Kelly is not chasing buys near the current price. The cleaner view is to wait for price reaction at resistance and follow the corrective structure lower.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for gold to retest the Sell wave B zone and show bearish confirmation.
Sell zone: 4,650–4,665
Stop loss: above 4,697
Take profit 1: 4,618
Take profit 2: 4,570–4,580
Take profit 3: 4,535–4,545
Alternative scenario: if gold breaks above 4,697 and holds strongly, the bearish ABC correction may fail. In that case, the market may continue the bullish structure instead of dropping into wave C.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, the main short-term scenario is bearish correction. Gold is still near resistance, and the ABC structure is not complete yet.
If 4,650–4,665 holds as resistance, gold may continue lower towards 4,618 first, then 4,535–4,545 to complete wave C.
Share your view below.
GOLD IS RISING, BUT SELLERS ARE WATCHINGGold remains in a bullish structure, with no clear sign of a structural break on the lower timeframes. However, after a strong rally, price action has become more difficult: Gold is moving sideways with an expanding range and appears to be forming a broadening pattern.
This suggests that the battle between buyers and sellers is becoming more intense. Buyers still control the broader structure, but profit-taking and short-term selling pressure are starting to appear more frequently.
📌 KEY LEVELS TO WATCH
4,690–4,700
│
4,650
│
4,600–4,590
For now, I am watching how price behaves within this range ahead of important catalysts such as PCE data, comments from Kevin Warsh, and further developments in the U.S. Treasury market.
🧠 THE MARKET STORY
Buyers: The broader uptrend is still on their side. However, after such a strong rally, chasing price at higher levels is becoming increasingly risky.
Late buyers: Traders who missed the move from lower levels may become impatient if price fails to pull back deeply enough. This group is more vulnerable to FOMO and chasing the market.
Sellers: Early signs of selling pressure are beginning to appear, especially with more bearish candles and stronger price rejections. However, as long as the bullish structure remains intact, it is still too early to confirm a new downtrend.
🎯 TRADING IDEA
For now, I am not fully leaning toward the bearish side. The move I am watching is whether Gold can show enough weakness to break the short-term structure and create an early SELL opportunity.
My preferred scenario for now is continued movement within the 4,590–4,700 range, with the possibility of liquidity sweeps on both sides before the market chooses its next direction.
If price continues to hold its structure and reacts positively around 4,600–4,590, buyers will remain in control.
On the other hand, if price repeatedly fails around 4,650–4,700 and then breaks the short-term structure, that would be the first signal for me to seriously start watching for SELL opportunities.
⚠️ WARNING
This is a period that requires extra caution.
Buying at current highs offers less advantage, while selling remains premature as long as the bullish structure has not broken.
Therefore, I am not rushing to call the next trend yet. For now, I am simply watching how price reacts within the 4,590–4,700 range and waiting for the market to reveal its next move.
Gold is still bullish, but I’m starting to watch whether sellers are preparing for the first meaningful move lower.
Macro stable, gold up — next move could be sharp.The macro backdrop remains balanced 50/50. Gold is still supported by expectations around USD weakness and future monetary easing, but the lack of a clear new catalyst is making it increasingly difficult for buyers to sustain the recent acceleration. With the market already pricing in a strong bullish move, any stabilization in the USD or rebound in Treasury yields could quickly trigger profit-taking.
Technical Structure
Gold is showing the first clear signs of short-term exhaustion after an extended bullish expansion. The latest H4 candle closed bearish near the upper boundary of the rising channel, while price is approaching the 4680–4700 Demand zone. This is an important area where buyers need to prove that the trend still has sufficient momentum.
Bearish Scenario — Preferred
If Gold continues to be rejected around 4680–4700, the current red H4 candle could develop into a broader correction. The first area to monitor is 4560–4580 Supply + FVG. A break below this zone could accelerate the correction toward 4470–4490.
Bullish Scenario
If buyers absorb the profit-taking and reclaim 4680–4700 with a strong H4 close, Gold could resume the bullish expansion and challenge the upper channel, opening the possibility of a move toward 4720+.
Lucas View
The bullish structure remains intact, but the first warning of profit-taking has appeared. With macro conditions currently 50/50, there is not yet enough evidence to chase Gold at the top of the move.
Watch 4680–4700 carefully.
Rejection → correction.
Break & H4 close above → bullish continuation.
📌 Bias: Neutral-to-Bearish short term — WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION.
LucasGrayTrading
XAUUSD — Bullish Trend Approaching Major RejectionFundamental Analysis
Gold remains supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and ongoing concerns around the U.S. bond market. The broader environment still favours buyers, but upcoming U.S. PCE data and Fed signals could bring stronger volatility.
Technical Analysis
XAUUSD remains clearly bullish on H1.
Price continues to form higher highs and higher lows, while the rising trendline is still supporting the move. Several bullish BOS signals also show that buyers remain in control.
Gold is now trading around 4,645 and moving closer to the 4,665–4,680 rejection zone. After such a strong rally, this is not the best area to chase new buys.
A short pullback towards the bullish trendline around 4,590–4,610 would be normal.
If the correction becomes deeper, the 0.50–0.618 Fibonacci area from the latest bullish wave sits around 4,530–4,555. This is close to the marked OB + liquidity zone and could become the stronger area for buyers to return.
Important Key Levels
4,665–4,680 — Major rejection
4,590–4,610 — Trendline support
4,530–4,555 — Fibonacci pullback area
4,510–4,530 — OB + liquidity
4,367–4,425 — H1 FVG
4,335–4,350 — Major OB + support
Trading Scenario
The main plan remains bullish.
I prefer waiting for a pullback rather than buying near resistance. Price may first react around the trendline, while a deeper move towards 4,530–4,555 could offer a cleaner continuation area.
If buyers defend this zone and bullish confirmation appears, Gold could move back towards 4,665–4,680.
Buy/Sell Condition
The buy idea needs a clear bullish reaction from the trendline or Fibonacci support area.
A sustained H1 break below the 4,510 area would weaken the immediate bullish continuation setup.
Overall View
The H1 trend still favours buyers, but Gold is becoming extended near resistance. I prefer patience here — wait for the pullback, then look for confirmation before following the trend again.
Would you wait for the deeper Fibonacci pullback before looking for the next buy?
XAUUSD – Gold Pulls Back, But Buyers Still Have The Structure XAUUSD – Gold Pulls Back, But Buyers Still Have The Structure
Gold is taking a short-term pullback after a strong bullish move.
Price is currently trading around 4,641 after rejecting from the recent high near 4,690. This correction is normal after a strong rally, and the chart still shows buyers holding the main structure.
The key question now is simple: will gold defend 4,604 and continue toward 4,738?
FUNDAMENTAL VIEW
Gold remains supported by the broader bullish momentum, but after a fast upside move, short-term profit-taking can appear.
The market is still watching USD movement, U.S. yields, Fed expectations, and risk sentiment. If the dollar stays weak or yields continue to cool, gold may keep attracting buyers.
However, because price is already extended, I prefer waiting for a clean support reaction instead of chasing the current move.
TECHNICAL VIEW – SMC + FIBONACCI
From an SMC perspective, gold is still in a bullish structure. Price created a strong move higher, broke above previous resistance, and is now pulling back into a more balanced zone.
The Sell Scalping area around 4,652 is the first short-term resistance. If gold breaks and holds above this level, buyers may try to continue toward the next target.
The most important support is the Buy Order Fibonacci zone around 4,604. This level aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci area and previous reaction structure. If buyers defend it, the bullish continuation setup becomes cleaner.
Below that, the Buy Swing zone around 4,573 is the deeper support. This is the area I would watch if gold makes a larger correction before continuing.
The main upside target is around 4,738, where the Fibonacci extension target is marked.
KEY PRICE ZONES
Current price: 4,641
Sell Scalping zone: 4,652
Buy Order Fibonacci: 4,604
Buy Swing zone: 4,573
Main Target: 4,738
Bullish structure valid: Above 4,604
Deeper bullish support: 4,573
Bullish confirmation: Above 4,652
Invalidation for short-term bullish view: Below 4,573
TRADING SCENARIOS
Buy Scenario – Priority View
Buy Zone: 4,604
Entry: Bullish rejection, liquidity sweep, lower-timeframe CHoCH, or strong reaction from the Fibonacci buy zone
SL: Below 4,604 or below the nearest swing low
TP1: 4,652
TP2: 4,738
Deeper Buy Scenario
Buy Zone: 4,573
Entry: Wait for clear bullish confirmation from the Buy Swing zone
SL: Below 4,573
TP1: 4,604
TP2: 4,652
TP3: 4,738
Breakout Buy
Condition: Break and hold above 4,652
Target: 4,738
Sell Scenario – Only Short-Term Reaction
Sell is not the main view while gold holds above 4,604.
Sell Zone: 4,652
Entry: Bearish rejection or failed breakout
TP1: 4,604
TP2: 4,573
Invalidation: If price breaks and holds above 4,652, the sell reaction idea becomes weaker.
MY VIEW
Gold is still bullish, but the current area is not ideal for chasing.
The pullback from the high looks like a normal correction inside a strong trend. For me, the best zone to watch is 4,604. If buyers defend this Fibonacci buy zone, gold may continue toward 4,652 and then 4,738.
If the correction becomes deeper, 4,573 is the next important level where buyers may try to step in again.
For now, buyers still have the advantage — but the next support reaction will decide whether the bullish wave continues.
Do you think gold will defend 4,604 and continue toward 4,738?
Why I Still Use Fibonacci in Market AnalysisFibonacci is one of the most debated tools in trading.
Some traders see 0.382, 0.5, and 0.618 as almost “magical” price zones. Others believe they are just numbers traders give meaning to.
In my view, both interpretations miss the point.
Fibonacci is useful not because it predicts the future, but because it helps measure the depth of a pullback and identify areas where price reaction may become important.
1. Fibonacci Is Not a Buy/Sell Button
Imagine the market is trending strongly higher and then starts to pull back.
Instead of guessing:
“Has price pulled back enough?”
Fibonacci helps divide the previous move into reference zones such as 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%.
If price returns to 0.618, that does not mean you should automatically buy.
It simply tells me:
“This is an area worth watching. Now let’s see whether buyers actually return.”
2. Why Do Traders Watch 0.382 and 0.618?
In a strong trend, a shallow pullback near 0.382 can suggest that the side controlling the market is still aggressive.
Deeper retracements toward 0.5–0.618 may give price more room to “reset” before the trend continues.
One interesting detail: 0.5 is not actually a Fibonacci ratio , but traders still use it widely because the 50% retracement has long been important in technical analysis.
3. Fibonacci Works Best With Confluence
I rarely care about a Fibonacci level on its own.
It becomes more meaningful when it aligns with:
Support/Resistance + Market Structure + Previous Breakout Zone + Liquidity + Price Action .
For example:
Price pulls back to 0.618, reaches an old support zone, and shows a strong bullish reaction.
At that point, I am not buying because of “0.618”.
I am buying because multiple factors are telling the same story .
4. If the Anchor Points Are Wrong, Everything After That Is Wrong
This is a very common mistake.
Traders sometimes draw Fibonacci from almost any high and low until they find a level that looks “perfect”.
But Fibonacci is only useful when you identify the correct meaningful swing high and swing low for the move you are analysing.
Do not use the tool to prove what you want to see.
Use it to measure the move the market has actually created.
5. Do Not Turn 0.618 Into a Magic Number
Price may react at 0.618.
It may also break straight through it.
No ratio is strong enough to replace Stop Loss, invalidation, or risk management.
Fibonacci gives me an area to watch. Price Action decides whether there is a trade.
The Most Important Point
Leonardo Fibonacci did not invent Fibonacci Retracement for financial trading. He became famous for the number sequence popularised in Liber Abaci in the 13th century; applying related ratios to financial charts came much later.
That is why I do not see Fibonacci as a mystical forecasting tool.
I see it as a pullback measuring tool.
And when that measurement is placed correctly within trend, structure, and price reaction , it can still be extremely useful.
Do not ask: “Did price reach 0.618?”
Ask:
“If price reaches 0.618, how does the market react?”
That is the part that should drive the trading decision.
This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.






















