Short
Long
Short 
XAUUSD: Wave 5 downside can extend further.Gold is still trading under bearish pressure after breaking below the short-term structure. From Kelly’s view, the current recovery looks more like a corrective bounce inside a bearish Elliott sequence, not a confirmed reversal yet.
The key idea is simple: gold may retest resistance first, but as long as price stays below the sell zone, the wave 5 downside scenario remains active.
⟡ Market structure
The chart shows gold broke down from the previous support area and pushed into the lower Fibonacci extension zone. Price has reacted from the 3,975 buy scalping area, but the rebound remains limited while gold trades below the 4,027 sell zone.
The current price is around 3,997, showing a small recovery after the breakdown. However, this recovery is still under resistance. If sellers defend the 4,020–4,027 area, gold may continue lower towards the 3,943 support zone, where the chart marks the possible end of wave 5.
The higher OB sell zone around 4,062 remains the key area where the bearish structure would be seriously tested.
➤ Key levels
◌ 3,975: buy scalping reaction zone
◌ 3,997: current price reaction area
◌ 4,020–4,027: sell zone and wave 4 resistance
◌ 4,062: OB sell zone and major resistance
◌ 3,943: support / Fibonacci 1.618 / possible wave 5 end
◌ Above 4,062: area where the bearish setup weakens
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to be forming a bearish 5-wave structure after the breakdown.
Wave 1 started the first bearish move from the upper area.
Wave 2 corrected back into resistance but failed to continue higher.
Wave 3 pushed price sharply lower through support.
Wave 4 may now be forming as a short corrective rebound.
If the 4,020–4,027 sell zone holds, wave 5 may continue towards 3,943.
This is why Kelly would not chase buy too early. The current bounce is still below resistance, and the larger short-term structure remains bearish.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for price to retest the 4,020–4,027 sell zone and show bearish confirmation.
Sell zone: 4,020–4,027 if rejection appears
Stop loss: above the confirmed rejection high or above 4,062
Take profit 1: 3,975
Take profit 2: 3,960
Take profit 3: 3,943
Alternative scenario: if gold breaks above 4,027 and continues above 4,062 with strong acceptance, the bearish wave 5 setup weakens. In that case, the market may move into a larger corrective recovery before the next structure becomes clear.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, this is still a bearish intraday setup. Gold has reacted from the lower zone, but price has not reclaimed the sell zone yet.
The cleaner plan is to wait for the retest. If sellers defend resistance, wave 5 may continue towards the Fibonacci support below.
Gold is trying to bounce.
But below 4,020–4,027, the downside structure still has priority.
Share your view below. Short 
XAUUSD — Key Entry Zones Around OB and FVG
Gold is trading around $3,998 after recovering slightly from the lower Buy zone OB around $3,980–$3,985. The short-term reaction shows that buyers are trying to defend this demand area, but the overall structure is still not fully bullish because price remains below the upper OB and FVG supply zones.
From an SMC perspective, gold recently created bearish BOS and continued to trade below the previous structure. The current bounce from the lower OB looks more like a reaction from liquidity rather than a confirmed bullish reversal. This means the buy zone can be used for short-term reaction, but the stronger decision areas are still above, especially around $4,038–$4,041 and the FVG zone near $4,051–$4,058.
The main plan is to wait for price to react clearly around the marked zones. Buying near the lower OB is only valid with confirmation, while selling near the upper OB or FVG remains the cleaner setup if sellers defend those areas.
Buy scalping setup
Condition:
Gold holds the Buy zone OB around $3,980–$3,985 and forms bullish rejection with lower timeframe MSS / CHOCH.
Entry: $3,980–$3,985
SL: below $3,970
TP1: $4,000
TP2: $4,020
TP3: $4,038–$4,041
Sell setup 1
Condition:
Gold recovers into the OB sell zone around $4,038–$4,041 and forms bearish rejection.
Entry: $4,038–$4,041
SL: above $4,058
TP1: $4,020
TP2: $4,000
TP3: $3,980–$3,985
Sell setup 2
Condition:
If gold pushes higher into the FVG zone around $4,051–$4,058 and fails to break above it, this can create a stronger sell setup.
Entry: $4,051–$4,058 after rejection
SL: above $4,075
TP1: $4,038–$4,041
TP2: $4,000
TP3: $3,980–$3,985
TP4: $3,960
Sell setup 3
Condition:
If gold breaks cleanly below the Buy zone OB and retests it as resistance, bearish continuation becomes active.
Entry: below $3,980 after breakdown retest
SL: above $4,000
TP1: $3,970
TP2: $3,960
TP3: $3,942
Key levels
Current price area: $3,998
Buy zone OB: $3,980–$3,985
Short-term reaction area: $4,000–$4,020
OB sell zone: $4,038–$4,041
FVG sell zone: $4,051–$4,058
Bearish continuation level: below $3,980
Lower target: $3,960
Major lower liquidity: $3,942
Bullish scalp confirmation: clean reaction above $3,985
Sell confirmation: bearish rejection from $4,038–$4,058
Bearish invalidation: clean 2H close above $4,075
My current view is that gold can react from the lower Buy zone OB, but the main structure is still fragile. The Prime Gold plan is to avoid entering in the middle and only look for trades around the marked zones: short-term buy from $3,980–$3,985 if confirmed, or sell from $4,038–$4,041 and $4,051–$4,058 if sellers reject strongly. If gold loses $3,980 cleanly, the bearish path toward $3,960 and $3,942 becomes active again.
No confirmation, no trade.
Long 
GOLD | Big Decision Zone — 4,150 Breakout or 3,900 Breakdown?Gold Futures — Daily Chart Study
COMEX: Gold Futures
Gold is currently trading near an important decision zone. Price is trying to hold the major support area, while the falling trendline resistance is still creating pressure on the upside.
The key support zone to watch is 3,900–3,960. As long as Gold holds this area, the structure is not fully broken and a recovery attempt can remain active.
Chart observations:
Gold is holding near an important support zone.
Falling trendline resistance is still visible on the daily chart.
3,900–3,960 is the major support belt.
4,120–4,150 is the key breakout confirmation zone.
A sustained move above 4,150 can shift the structure toward bullish recovery.
On the upside, if Gold manages to cross and sustain above 4,120–4,150, the bearish pressure can reduce. In that case, the next important zones to track are 4,300–4,350, followed by 4,600, and then 4,800–5,000 as broader resistance/reference zones.
On the downside, if Gold breaks below 3,900, the current support structure may weaken. Below this level, the next downside zones are 3,750–3,600. A move toward 3,500–3,300 looks like a rare panic scenario only if global sentiment turns sharply negative.
Key levels:
Support zone: 3,900–3,960
Breakdown risk below: 3,900
Downside zones: 3,750–3,600 / 3,500–3,300
Breakout confirmation zone: 4,120–4,150
Upside resistance zones: 4,300–4,350 / 4,600 / 4,800–5,000
For now, Gold is in a breakout-or-breakdown decision zone. A sustained move above 4,150 can strengthen the bullish recovery structure, while a breakdown below 3,900 can increase downside risk.
Shared only for educational study and chart-tracking purpose. This is not a buy/sell recommendation, trading advice, or investment advice. I am not a registered financial advisor. Please do your own research or consult a qualified financial advisor before taking any market decision. I am not responsible for any profit or loss based on this post.
#GOLD #GoldFutures #COMEX #GoldAnalysis #CommodityMarket #DailyChart #BreakoutWatch #SupportAndResistance #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingView XAUUSD: Bearish Pressure Prevails◈ XAUUSD: Bearish Pressure Still Controls the Structure
Gold is facing renewed selling pressure as the market reacts to stronger USD demand and rising concerns around inflation expectations. From Kelly’s view, the chart also supports this bearish tone, with price still trading below the key sell zone and showing signs that another Elliott wave decline may continue.
The key idea is simple: gold is not yet showing a clean bullish recovery, and the structure still favours downside continuation while price remains below resistance.
⟡ Market structure
The chart shows gold has been moving in a repeated bearish rhythm, with several recovery attempts failing near resistance. After the latest rebound, price could not hold above the 4,060–4,080 area and quickly rotated lower again.
The current price is around 4,036, while the nearest sell zone is sitting near 4,020–4,035. This area is important because price is trying to stabilise here, but the recovery is still weak. If sellers continue to defend this zone, gold may drop back towards the lower Fibonacci support.
The main downside target remains the 3,940–3,955 area, where the chart marks the support zone, Fibonacci 1.618 extension, and potential end of wave 5.
➤ Key levels
◌ 4,020–4,035: current sell zone and short-term resistance
◌ 3,985–4,000: buy scalping wave 4 reaction area
◌ 3,940–3,955: support / Fibonacci 1.618 / wave 5 target
◌ 4,060–4,080: resistance area if price rebounds
◌ Above 4,080: area where the bearish setup starts to weaken
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to be forming a bearish 5-wave continuation after the previous corrective rebound failed.
Wave 1 started the decline from the upper resistance area.
Wave 2 created a short recovery but failed to change the structure.
Wave 3 pushed price lower with stronger bearish pressure.
Wave 4 may be developing around the 3,985–4,000 reaction area.
If the sell zone continues to hold, wave 5 may extend towards 3,940–3,955.
This is why Kelly would still treat the current market as bearish unless gold can reclaim the higher resistance zone with strength.
▸ Fundamental backdrop
Gold is under pressure as energy-driven inflation concerns keep the market cautious about the Fed’s policy path. If traders continue pricing in a more hawkish Fed outlook, the US Dollar may stay supported and limit gold’s recovery.
At the same time, rising US-Iran tension is also supporting USD demand as a safe-haven currency. This creates a difficult environment for gold in the short term, especially when the technical structure is already leaning bearish.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for price to reject from the 4,020–4,035 sell zone before expecting bearish continuation.
Sell zone: 4,020–4,035 if bearish confirmation appears
Stop loss: above 4,080 or above the confirmed rejection high
Take profit 1: 3,985–4,000
Take profit 2: 3,960
Take profit 3: 3,940–3,955
Alternative scenario: if gold breaks above 4,080 and holds with strong acceptance, the bearish wave 5 setup weakens. In that case, price may move into a corrective recovery before the next structure becomes clear.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, gold is still trading under bearish pressure. The macro backdrop supports USD strength, while the technical chart shows price failing to reclaim key resistance.
The cleaner plan is not to chase price at the low, but to wait for a reaction around the sell zone. If sellers defend that area, wave 5 may continue towards the Fibonacci support below.
Gold remains vulnerable.
As long as resistance holds, the downside structure still has priority.
Share your view below. Short 
XAUUSD – Gold Bounces Slightly, But Sellers Still Control The XAUUSD – Gold Bounces Slightly, But Sellers Still Control The Channel
Gold is trying to bounce from the lower area, but the bigger structure is still heavy.
Price is currently trading around 3,996 after reacting near the recent low. The small recovery shows that buyers are trying to defend the lower zone, but gold is still moving inside a clear descending channel.
For now, this looks more like a technical bounce than a confirmed bullish reversal.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Gold is receiving some short-term buying in the Asian session, but the broader background still leans cautious.
Higher oil prices and renewed geopolitical tension may increase inflation concerns. This can support expectations that the Fed keeps rates higher for longer, which is usually a headwind for non-yielding assets like gold.
So even if gold rebounds, upside may remain limited unless buyers can break key resistance with strength.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – SMC + MARKET STRUCTURE
From an SMC perspective, gold remains inside a descending channel. Price has been forming lower highs, and each recovery attempt has been limited by resistance.
The key sell reaction zone is around 4,022. This area was previous support and may now act as resistance if gold retests it.
Below current price, the day low around 3,969 is the next important level. If gold breaks this area, sellers may continue pushing price toward the lower liquidity zone around 3,943.
The chart is simple: as long as price stays below 4,022, sellers still have control. A clean reclaim above 4,022 would weaken the immediate bearish view.
KEY PRICE ZONES
Current price: 3,996
Sell zone support: 4,022
Day low: 3,969
Buy scalping / liquidity zone: 3,943
Lower channel target: 3,880 – 3,900
Bearish below: 3,969
Invalidation for sell view: Above 4,022
TRADING SCENARIOS
Sell Scenario
Sell Zone: Around 4,022
Entry: Bearish rejection, failed reclaim, or lower-timeframe CHoCH
SL: Above 4,022 or nearest swing high
TP1: 3,969
TP2: 3,943
TP3: Lower channel area if momentum expands
Breakdown Sell
Below 3,969 after confirmation → Target 3,943 first
Buy Scenario
Buy is not the priority while gold stays inside the descending channel.
Buy Zone: Around 3,943 only if strong reaction appears
Entry: Liquidity sweep, bullish rejection, or CHoCH
TP1: 3,969
TP2: 3,996
Invalidation: If price breaks and holds below 3,943, the buy reaction becomes weaker.
MY VIEW
Gold is bouncing slightly, but the trend has not changed.
The chart still belongs to sellers while price remains below 4,022 and inside the descending channel. A short-term bounce can happen from the lower zone, but without a strong reclaim, the bearish structure remains active.
For me, 4,022 is the key reaction level.
If gold rejects from this area, the next downside path toward 3,969 and 3,943 remains open.
Gold is trying to recover — but sellers still have the stronger structure.
Do you think gold can reclaim 4,022, or will sellers push price back toward 3,943?
Short 
XAUUSD — Strong Support Tested, Recovery Setup
Fundamental Analysis
Gold remains sensitive to USD momentum, Treasury yields, and upcoming U.S. macro data. For now, short-term price action shows a possible technical recovery as buyers continue to defend the same support zone.
Technical Analysis
On the 1H chart, XAUUSD is trading around 3,995 after testing the strong support area near 3,960 - 3,970 multiple times. This repeated reaction shows that sellers are losing some pressure at the low. The first buy zone is around 3,983 - 3,987. If price holds this zone, gold may correct higher toward the liquidity level at 4,017, then the sell FVG area around 4,050 - 4,055. A stronger recovery may target the VL zone around 4,095 - 4,105.
Important Key Levels
Current price: 3,995
Strong support: 3,960 - 3,970
Main buy zone: 3,983 - 3,987
Liquidity level: 4,017
Sell FVG zone: 4,050 - 4,055
Main recovery target: 4,095 - 4,105
Invalidation: below 3,960
Trading Scenario
Main Buy Setup
Entry: 3,983 - 3,987
Stop Loss: 3,960
Take Profit 1: 4,017
Take Profit 2: 4,050 - 4,055
Take Profit 3: 4,095 - 4,105
Buy Condition
Wait for gold to hold the 3,983 - 3,987 buy zone and show bullish rejection. A clean reaction above this zone keeps the recovery setup valid. If price breaks above 4,017, the corrective move may extend toward 4,050 - 4,055. If price breaks and holds below 3,960, the buy setup is invalid.
Overall View
XAUUSD is still under broader downtrend pressure, but the repeated test of strong support suggests a possible short-term correction. The preferred plan is to wait for confirmation around 3,983 - 3,987, then look for recovery toward 4,017, 4,055, and 4,095 - 4,105.
Do you think gold can recover from this strong support zone, or will sellers break it on the next test?
Long 
XAUUSD — Still Heavy Below 4,009Gold is still moving with pressure inside the descending channel.
Price is trading around 3,990 after failing to hold above the short-term resistance area near 4,009.
This tells me the market is not ready to confirm a clean recovery yet.
The bounce is there.
But the structure is still heavy.
The simple read
Gold is now between resistance and liquidity support.
The first resistance area is 4,009 - 4,015.
If sellers continue to defend this zone, price may rotate lower again toward 3,968.
If 3,968 fails, the deeper reaction zone is 3,940.
This 3,940 area is important because it connects with the Fibo extension buy zone and the lower part of the descending channel.
So today, I do not want to chase the middle.
I want to wait for the next clean reaction.
Key price zones
Current price area: 3,985 - 3,995
Short-term sell zone: 4,009 - 4,015
Main resistance zone: 4,039
Liquidity support: 3,968
Fibo extension buy zone: 3,940
Bearish pressure weakens above: 4,009
Recovery becomes stronger above: 4,039
Trading plan
📉 Sell reaction scenario
If gold retests 4,009 - 4,015 and rejects:
The correction can continue toward 3,968.
If 3,968 breaks clearly, gold may move deeper toward 3,940.
This is the cleaner sell-side roadmap while price stays under resistance.
📈 Recovery scenario
If gold breaks and holds above 4,009:
A short-term recovery may appear.
Price could retest 4,015 first, then 4,039.
But this is still only a recovery attempt unless gold also breaks 4,039 with strength.
📈 Buy reaction scenario
If gold reaches 3,968 - 3,940:
This is where I will watch buyer reaction more carefully.
A clean reaction from 3,968 may create a short bounce.
A deeper sweep into 3,940 may create a stronger reaction if buyers defend the zone.
No reaction = no buy.
Tiara’s View
Gold is not giving a clean bullish confirmation yet.
The chart is still moving from resistance to support inside a bearish channel.
That means patience is more important than guessing.
For me, 4,009 is the first trap zone.
3,968 is the first liquidity support.
3,940 is the deeper zone where the next real reaction may appear.
Main view:
Below 4,009, gold remains cautious.
Above 4,009, a recovery can start.
Above 4,039, the structure becomes cleaner for buyers.
Reaction first.
Confirmation second.
Trade last.
No confirmation = no trade.
Do you think gold will reject from 4,009 again, or sweep 3,940 before the next reaction? Short 
Long 
GOLD reacting from low, but still bearish.BRIAN XAUUSD – GOLD REACTING FROM LOW VALUE, BUT HIGHER SUPPLY STILL DOMINATES
Gold is currently bouncing from a lower value area after tapping into the monthly low zone. This move is not a breakout — it is a classic Volume Profile reaction from discounted price, where buyers step in to absorb liquidity.
However, the overall structure still shows imbalance to the downside. The market is not yet accepting higher value, and sellers are still positioned above.
From a macro perspective, USD strength driven by inflation concerns and geopolitical tension continues to weigh on gold. The market is leaning toward a more hawkish Fed narrative, which limits upside potential. This reinforces the idea that the current move is a corrective bounce, not a trend reversal.
Volume Profile structure
On H1, price is attempting to build acceptance above the POC Holding Zone at 3,980 - 3,990.
This zone represents the most traded area after the recent sell-off — a key balance point where buyers are trying to establish control. If price continues to hold above this level, it signals short-term value acceptance and opens the door for a rotation higher.
However, the broader context still shows a bearish channel. This means any move up is likely to be a rotation toward higher liquidity zones, where sellers may re-enter.
Above current price, we have clear low-volume areas leading into resistance zones. These are typical targets for price to move quickly into, but also areas where rejection can occur.
Key Volume Profile zones
POC Holding Zone: 3,980 - 3,990
This is the current value area where the market is trying to stabilize. Holding above this zone = short-term bullish acceptance.
Low Volume Expansion Zone: 4,035 - 4,040
This is the first upside magnet. Price can move quickly into this area due to low resistance, but reaction is expected.
High Supply Zone: 4,075 - 4,080
This is where previous selling pressure exists. If price reaches here, expect strong reaction or rejection.
Bearish Channel Resistance
This is the structural ceiling. As long as price remains inside this channel, sellers still control the higher timeframe narrative.
Trading scenario – Volume Profile approach
Buy only when price confirms acceptance above the POC Holding Zone 3,980 - 3,990
Entry:
Wait for price to hold above 3,980 - 3,990 and show clear rejection of lower prices (absorption, strong bullish candles, or failed breakdown).
Stop Loss:
Below the POC zone or below the recent liquidity sweep.
Take Profit:
TP1: 4,035 - 4,040 (low volume target)
TP2: 4,075 - 4,080 (high supply zone)
Important note:
This is a rotation trade from low value to higher value — not a trend continuation setup.
Final view
Gold is currently rotating higher from a discounted zone, but the market has not yet shifted into a bullish structure.
As long as price remains inside the bearish channel, every rally should be viewed as a move into supply, not a breakout.
The real game is not at the bottom — it is at the higher zones where liquidity and sellers are waiting.
Key question:
Will the market accept higher value above 4,040 and push toward 4,080, or will this bounce simply feed sellers for the next leg down? Long 
GOLD: Range Break or Trend Continuation?📌 Market Overview
• Gold remains under pressure after the recent sell-off, with price still trading below the H1 descending trendline.
• Despite several rebound attempts, bullish momentum remains weak and the market is still trapped inside the current consolidation range.
• Today's focus shifts to U.S. Retail Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, and any new headlines surrounding Trump and Iran, as these could trigger the next wave of volatility.
📌 Trading Plan
Resistance: 4000–4010 | 4055–4070
Support: 3970–3960 | 3942 | 3888
📌 Personal View
✅ As long as price remains below the descending trendline, the primary bias remains SELL on rallies.
✅ If price breaks and holds above 4010, a short-term recovery toward 4055–4070 becomes more likely.
✅ If 3960 is broken, the next downside targets are 3942, followed by 3888.
✅ Avoid chasing trades inside the current range. Wait for a clear breakout or a confirmed rejection at key levels before entering.
📌 What do you think?
Will Gold break above 4010 and start a recovery, or lose 3960 and extend the bearish trend? Short 
XAUUSD — 4,040 Is the Trap Zone XAUUSD — 4,040 Is the Trap Zone
Gold is getting a small bounce from the lows, but this is exactly the kind of move I would be careful with.
Price has been travelling inside a wider bearish channel, and every recovery has looked more like the market lifting its head for air before sellers step in again. The latest bounce from the 3,980 - 3,995 area is interesting, but it has not changed the bigger story yet. Gold is still sitting near monthly lows, and the structure is still showing lower highs inside the channel.
For newer traders, the key is not just that price is bouncing. The key is where it is bouncing into. Right now, gold is moving back toward the supply zone around 4,030 - 4,045. That area is where I think late buyers may get tested. If price climbs into that zone and starts rejecting, it would look like smart money is using the bounce to reload sellers, not to build a clean bullish reversal.
My main view is bearish while gold stays below the supply zone. The broader pressure still supports that idea: oil-driven inflation concerns, US-Iran tension, and higher-for-longer Fed expectations can keep the USD supported, which makes gold’s recovery harder to trust.
If price rejects from 4,030 - 4,045 and breaks back below the small range near 3,980 - 3,995, the next liquidity pocket I would watch is 3,960.275 first. If that level fails, the lower channel area near 3,920 can become the next magnet.
This bearish idea only becomes weaker if gold reclaims 4,045 cleanly and holds above the supply zone. That would tell me sellers failed to defend the trap area.
Key price zones to watch
Current reaction area: 3,980 - 3,995
Main supply / trap zone: 4,030 - 4,045
Bearish confirmation zone: clean break below 3,980
First downside liquidity target: 3,960.275
Main downside channel target: 3,920 - 3,930
Upper resistance if sellers fail: 4,045 - 4,060
Major upside liquidity: 4,138.553
Invalidation: clean reclaim above 4,045 and hold
Do you see this bounce as real strength, or just a pullback into supply before gold hunts 3,960 again?
Short 
DON'T TRADE GOLD TODAY UNTIL YOU READ THIS!For the past two days, I have been consistently saying that sellers remain in control of Gold and that the overall market structure is still bearish. Based on that, I expected a strong selling move, and that's exactly what we witnessed. We finally got a solid bearish continuation along with a daily close below $4000.
Now the big question is: What should we expect on the last trading day of the week?
Make sure you read this psychological analysis carefully because it will not only help you understand the market psychology but also give you a clear trading plan for today's session.
We have now reached a very important area, and the close below $4000 has changed market sentiment significantly. As soon as the market closed below this major psychological level, many retail traders randomly jumped into selling positions. At the same time, another group of traders is still trying to fight for buying opportunities above $3950, mainly because the $3944-$3975 zone has acted as a strong demand area in the past.
Even today, you can see Gold attempting to hold support around $3970. This is the same area from which Gold previously delivered a short-term reversal, and because of that, many emotional buyers are entering the market with stop losses below $3950, hoping that another bullish reversal will happen.
However, I believe those expectations are likely to be disappointed.
Despite the aggressive bullish rallies we have seen over the last several days, my view has remained unchanged. Those sharp buying moves were never enough to change the higher-timeframe trend. Instead, I believe they were simply inducement moves designed to attract buyers into the market before another wave of selling.
The overall higher-timeframe structure is still strongly bearish, and as long as that structure remains intact, I will continue to favor selling opportunities over buying. If you decide to buy, I believe it is much safer to trade with smaller position sizes. My main focus is still on catching the next larger bearish move.
Friday Trading Plan
For Friday, I prefer to be slightly less aggressive because Gold is already trading below $4000 and very close to this year's lows. At these levels, both buyers and sellers become extremely emotional, which usually increases volatility and creates false moves.
Because of that, my focus today will mainly be on smaller intraday scalps rather than chasing aggressive positions.
I believe Gold is likely to spend most of today's session trading above $3960 and below $4017.
Just as the market repeatedly trapped buyers above $4000 before delivering the recent sell-off, there is a good possibility that Gold may now spend some time above $3950, keeping buyers interested while simultaneously frustrating sellers before the next impulsive bearish move begins.
Today's session could simply become a battle between buyers and sellers inside this lower price range.
However, my overall bias remains unchanged.
I still consider $4017 to be an excellent selling zone, and I remain strongly bearish below $4028. From those levels, I will continue looking for selling opportunities targeting $3944, $3921, $3908, and eventually $3890.
Until then, I have no interest in planning any short-term buying trades. My focus remains entirely on following the higher-timeframe bearish trend.
I hope you found this analysis logical, valuable, and educational. My goal is not only to share a trading plan but also to help you understand the psychology behind every move the market makes.
Good luck for the final trading day of the week. I wish everyone a profitable trading session.
What is your view on Gold? Do you think the bearish trend will continue, or are you expecting a reversal?
Let me know your opinion in the comments.
XAUUSD 3970 sweep — 4021 first trap XAUUSD 3970 sweep — 4021 first trap
That 3,970 sweep is the whole setup now.
Gold dropped into the monthly low area, bounced a bit, but don’t let that little recovery fool you too fast. The structure is still heavy. Lower highs. Breakdown. Weak reclaim. Sellers still pressing from above.
Macro is not helping bulls much either. US-Iran tension keeps risk messy, inflation fear is still alive, and Fed rate-hike talk gives USD a reason to stay bid. So yeah, gold can bounce. But the bounce can still be just bait.
Main bias stays bearish while price sits below 4,021 and 4,058.
The first trap zone is the FVG around 4,010 - 4,021. If price pushes into that area and starts rejecting, that’s where late buyers can get stuck. Above that, the bigger pain zone is 4,068 - 4,085, the OB + liquidity area. That is the cleaner premium zone for sellers.
I’m not chasing shorts at 3,970 though. Too late down there.
Trading scenario:
Sell idea only if gold pulls back into 4,010 - 4,021 and rejects, or stretches deeper into 4,068 - 4,085 and fails.
Entry zone: 4,010 - 4,021 after rejection
Deeper sell zone: 4,068 - 4,085
Stop loss: above 4,103
TP1: 3,970
TP2: 3,961
TP3: 3,943
No rejection, no sell. Simple.
If gold closes back above 4,103, this short idea gets messy. Then price can squeeze higher before sellers try again.
For now, this still looks like weak bounce into supply.
You selling the FVG retest, or waiting for 4,085?
Long 
XAUUSD: Demand Reacts, But Sellers Still Wait Above XAUUSD: Demand Reacts, But Sellers Still Wait Above
Market Context
Gold is recovering slightly from the monthly low area, but the upside still looks limited. US-Iran tensions, inflation concerns, and stronger USD demand continue to pressure gold, while expectations of a more restrictive Fed stance keep buyers cautious.
The market is not showing a clean bullish reversal yet. The current bounce is more like a technical reaction from demand, not a confirmed trend shift.
Key point: gold is reacting from demand, but sellers may return if price rebounds into 4,055 - 4,080.
Technical Structure
Gold is trading around 3,983 after reacting inside the Liquidity Sweep / Demand Zone.
The short-term trend remains weak. Price is holding the bottom temporarily, but buyers still need to reclaim 4,007 first before a stronger rebound can develop.
Above that, 4,029 is the next buy-side liquidity target. If price reaches this area and keeps momentum, gold may extend toward the Sell Reaction Zone at 4,055 - 4,080.
However, as long as price remains below the major supply structure, rallies should still be treated carefully. The broader bearish setup still supports fresh selling pressure at higher prices.
Key Levels
Current Price: 3,983
Demand Zone: 3,960 - 3,980
Buy Zone: 4,007
Buy-side Liquidity: 4,029
Sell Reaction Zone: 4,055 - 4,080
Major Supply Zone: 4,105 - 4,120
Bullish Above: 4,029
Bearish Below: 3,960
Trading Plan
Buy Scenario
Entry: Above 4,007 after bullish confirmation
SL: Below 3,960
TP: 4,029 / 4,055 / 4,080
Condition: Price must hold the demand zone, reclaim 4,007 with strength, and form a clear bullish CHOCH. This is only a short-term rebound setup, not a full reversal.
Sell Scenario
Entry: 4,055 - 4,080 after bearish confirmation
SL: Above 4,105
TP: 4,029 / 4,007 / 3,980
Condition: Price rebounds into the Sell Reaction Zone but fails to continue higher. Bearish rejection from this area would confirm that sellers are still defending the structure.
Sell at Major Supply
Entry: 4,105 - 4,120
SL: Above 4,140
TP: 4,080 / 4,029 / 4,007
Condition: Price sweeps higher into major supply and gets rejected. This would be a stronger sell setup if the rebound becomes extended.
Breakdown Sell
Entry: Below 3,960
SL: Above 3,983
TP: 3,940 / 3,920 / 3,900
Condition: Demand fails, retest is rejected, and bearish momentum continues. This would confirm that the bounce has failed.
Overall Bias
Gold is reacting from demand, but the structure is still not bullish. Buyers need to reclaim 4,007 and 4,029 before the recovery can become stronger.
Until then, the main plan is to watch for a short-term rebound first, then look for seller reaction around 4,055 - 4,080.
Best approach: wait for confirmation at demand or resistance. Do not chase the bounce while gold is still below the sell reaction zone.
Will buyers reclaim 4,029, or will sellers use this rebound to push gold back below demand?
Long 
Long 
Gold breakdown the daily support Where we are: Gold is at 3,993, down from 4,035. Price has broken the daily support at 3,999 and is trading below it for the first time in this whole fight. The weekly close lands today.
Intermarket
Here is the twist. The macro pressure is actually easing right as price breaks down. The driver split moved from 100% bearish to 79% bearish with 21% now neutral. Tailwind score jumped from 1.0 to 4.5. The dollar has gone flat at 100.77 instead of rising, and VIX is flat. Real yields are still up at 2.32%, but the two biggest weights on gold are no longer pressing harder.
That is a real change after a week of nothing but red on that panel. It does not make the macro bullish, but the wall has cracks in it now.
Daily
Structure is bearish, last high a Lower High, last low a Lower Low. Support at 3,999 now reads negative, meaning price is under it. Resistance is far off at 4,180.
The trendline chart is the entire story today. Price is sitting exactly on the long-term rising support line, the ninth touch. That line has held this whole move up. It is being tested right now, in real time, on the weekly close. This is the make-or-break moment we have been building toward all week.
The multi-timeframe box: 15m has flipped bullish, but 1H, 4H, 1D, and 1W all stay bearish.
Hurst Cycle
This is the bullish counterweight and it is not small. The cycle is at 87% complete and the trough window is flagged OPEN NOW. The next crest is projected about 10 bars out. Last cycle was right-translated, amplitude is expanding, confluence sits at 70%.
In plain terms, the timing model says a cycle low is due right here, right now. That lands on the exact bar where price is testing the nine-touch trendline. When timing and structure line up in the same spot, you pay attention.
H4
Bearish, resistance 4,068, support 4,031, and price is below both. The 4H trendline chart flags S BROKEN at this level. The short-term support gave way.
But notice the 4H last low reads Higher Low, not Lower Low. The structure has not fully collapsed even with the break
Volatility
Still MID VOL, now 55 days against a typical stay of 8.5 days. The coil is at its most extreme reading yet. Daily ATR is 103.1 and gold has used only 38.1 points today, 0.37x, running at 0.84x normal pace. Expected 5-day range from this regime is 3.59%, roughly 143 points.
The market is compressed harder than it has been all year and it is sitting on the line that decides everything.
Bottom Line
Gold broke the daily support and is now standing on the last real floor: the nine-touch rising trendline at 3,993, with the weekly close hours away. That is the whole trade.
Two things are pulling in opposite directions and both are legitimate. On the bear side, the break of 3,999 is real, structure is bearish on four of five timeframes, and the weekly demand zone lost its upper boundary at 4,059. On the bull side, the Hurst trough window is open now, the macro pressure eased from 100% bearish to 79%, the dollar went flat, and the 4H still holds a Higher Low.
The plan: today's weekly close is the signal, not the intraday noise. A close back above 4,059 with that trendline holding turns this into a fake break and a strong buy signal off a nine-touch line with a cycle low. A weekly close below the trendline breaks a structure that has held all year, and the next stop is 3,884, then open air toward 3,453.
Do not front-run it. A coil this tight for 55 days does not resolve quietly, and the expected move from here is roughly 143 points in five days. Whichever way it breaks, it will move fast. Wait for the close, then trade the direction it gives you. XAUUSD: Demand Holds, But Sellers Still Lead XAUUSD: Demand Holds, But Sellers Still Lead
Market Context
Gold is trading around 4,035 after reacting from the demand zone near the weekly bottom. Buyers are defending this area, but overall pressure remains bearish.
Stronger energy prices keep inflation concerns elevated, supporting a restrictive Fed outlook. At the same time, US-Iran tensions are boosting USD demand, limiting gold’s upside.
Key point: demand is holding, but buyers must reclaim 4,050 - 4,063 to strengthen the recovery.
Technical Structure
Gold is reacting from the Demand Zone at 4,015 - 4,025. This is the key support to hold.
Resistance sits at 4,050 - 4,063 (liquidity zone). Above that, the Main Supply Zone is 4,105 - 4,120.
If demand breaks, price may drop toward 3,980 - 3,990.
Key Levels
Current Price: 4,035
Demand Zone: 4,015 - 4,025
Liquidity Zone: 4,050 - 4,063
Supply Zone: 4,105 - 4,120
Weekly Low: 3,980 - 3,990
Bullish Above: 4,063
Bearish Below: 4,015
Trading Plan
Buy Scenario
Entry: 4,015 - 4,025
SL: Below 3,990
TP: 4,050 / 4,063 / 4,100
Condition: Hold demand + bullish confirmation. Only short-term buy.
Sell Scenario (Priority)
Entry: 4,050 - 4,063
SL: Above 4,085
TP: 4,035 / 4,020 / 3,990
Condition: Rejection at liquidity zone.
Sell at Supply
Entry: 4,105 - 4,120
SL: Above 4,140
TP: 4,063 / 4,035 / 4,015
Breakdown Sell
Entry: Below 4,015
SL: Above 4,035
TP: 3,990 / 3,980 / 3,960
Overall Bias
Gold is not bullish yet. Sellers still dominate unless price breaks above 4,063.
Best approach: wait for confirmation, avoid chasing.
Will gold break 4,063 or drop back below demand?
Long 
XAUUSD – Gold Stays Heavy, 4,000 Is The Level To Watch XAUUSD – Gold Stays Heavy, 4,000 Is The Level To Watch
Gold is still moving under pressure inside a wide descending channel.
Price is currently trading around 4,026 after failing to build a strong recovery from the lower area. The chart shows that every bounce is still limited below the FVG and channel resistance, which means sellers remain in control for now.
The key level is very clear: 4,000.
If gold breaks and accepts below this psychological level, bearish momentum may accelerate toward deeper support.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Gold remains pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and rising inflation concerns linked to higher oil prices.
Market expectations around the Fed also remain important. If inflation risk stays elevated, traders may continue to price in a tighter policy outlook, which can limit gold’s upside.
Geopolitical tension may create volatility, but the chart still shows that gold has not confirmed a sustainable recovery yet.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – SMC + MARKET STRUCTURE
Gold is trading below the broader channel resistance and remains inside a descending structure.
From an SMC perspective, price has created several failed recovery attempts below the FVG zones. This shows that buyers are not strong enough to reclaim the upper structure.
The nearest FVG resistance is around 4,040 – 4,060. If gold retests this area and rejects, sellers may continue pushing price lower.
The more important bearish trigger is 4,000. A clean break below this level could expose the previous low area around 3,943 – 3,942. Below that, the wider channel suggests that the next structural downside area may be much lower if selling pressure expands.
KEY PRICE ZONES
Current price: 4,026
Near resistance: 4,040 – 4,060
Sell reaction zone: 4,060 – 4,080
Psychological support: 4,000
Previous low area: 3,943 – 3,942
Lower channel support: 3,675
Bearish below: 4,000
Invalidation for sell view: Above 4,080
TRADING SCENARIOS
Sell Scenario
Sell Zone: 4,040 – 4,080
Entry: Bearish rejection, failed reclaim, or lower-timeframe CHoCH
SL: Above 4,080
TP1: 4,000
TP2: 3,943 – 3,942
TP3: Lower channel support if momentum expands
Breakdown Sell
Below 4,000 after confirmation → Target 3,943 – 3,942
Buy Scenario
Buy is not the priority view while gold stays below the FVG resistance.
Buy Zone: Around 4,000 only if strong reaction appears
Entry: Liquidity sweep, bullish rejection, or CHoCH
TP1: 4,040
TP2: 4,060
Invalidation: If price breaks and holds below 4,000, the buy reaction becomes weak.
MY VIEW
Gold is still heavy.
The market is stabilizing slightly, but the recovery is not strong enough yet. As long as price stays below 4,060 – 4,080, sellers still have the better structure.
The most important level is 4,000.
If gold breaks below it clearly, the next downside target may open toward 3,943 – 3,942.
For now, I prefer waiting for either a rejection from FVG resistance or a confirmed break below 4,000.
Do you think gold will defend 4,000, or will sellers break it and push price toward the previous low?
Long 
